MJO812 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Gefs looks pretty good. Redevelopment off the MD coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Looks like we relax a bit with a mild up after the 7th or so. And then hopefully the EPS is right with a nice west coast ridge to end the 11-15 day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 6 hours ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: I would have to disagree. With the heights crashing like that and the baroclonic zone pushed off to the SE. also it never goes negative. Until it’s off the coast at least For that depiction. A closed mid and upper level low passing not terribly far south of SNE would be pretty sweet. Anyway it will change multiple times but I don’t mind that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Looks like we relax a bit with a mild up after the 7th or so. And then hopefully the EPS is right with a nice west coast ridge to end the 11-15 day. Nice ying and yang from a blocking event to a pna driven pattern. Something for everyone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 If not for late November/very early December climo I think we’d all already be saying “congrats philly, ACY or maybe even DC” for the December 1st potential. A Cut-off running into a monster Greenland block screams suppression to me. I’m thinking a climo compromise is in order, so at this point I wouldn’t at all be surprised if NNE is cold and dry and the bulk of the event is in the Northern Mid Atlantic. Just my first low confidence guess... In short, I think the trend on the GFS is real—it will persist—and should be taken seriously... 4 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs looks pretty good. Redevelopment off the MD coast. The early trends are clear. Both eps and gefs packages have been nudging further SE from a stronger 50/50 effectively setting up the mid range goalposts. Problem is, they are pretty ideal at a 6day lead time...like, what can go wrong. Ginxy will wakeup and scream it’s effin Tuesday. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: An early Dec whiff south would be eerily reminiscent of last year, but still don't see that. I think it be difficult to whiff but I do think the focus will be south of where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 47 minutes ago, jbenedet said: If not for late November/very early December climo I think we’d all already be saying “congrats philly, ACY or maybe even DC” for the December 1st potential. A Cut-off running into a monster Greenland block screams suppression to me. I’m thinking a climo compromise is in order, so at this point I wouldn’t at all be surprised if NNE is cold and dry and the bulk of the event is in the Northern Mid Atlantic. Just my first low confidence guess... In short, I think the trend on the GFS is real—it will persist—and should be taken seriously... To my untrained eye, the track is somewhat similar to Feb 9 and 10 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think it be difficult to whiff but I do think the focus will be south of where it is now. The pope’s forecasts are usually gfs driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 I dunno.....this system is pretty far north when it approaches the block. Can it be shunted south? Sure. Likely? I’m skeptical. I think I taint more likely than ain’t. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I dunno.....this system is pretty far north when it approaches the block. Can it be shunted south? Sure. Likely? I’m skeptical. I think I taint more likely than ain’t. The more likely scenario in a “shunted south” result is from disjointed mid levels causing weak surface reflection when the secondary tries to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The early trends are clear. Both eps and gefs packages have been nudging further SE from a stronger 50/50 effectively setting up the mid range goalposts. Problem is, they are pretty ideal at a 6day lead time...like, what can go wrong. Ginxy will wakeup and scream it’s effin Tuesday. I screamed in delight it will be 60 today. Get out and enjoy it Luke. Who knows whats going to happen next Monday. EPS likes NWCT BERKS TO Dendy. Probability highest there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I dunno.....this system is pretty far north when it approaches the block. Can it be shunted south? Sure. Likely? I’m skeptical. I think I taint more likely than ain’t. I at this long range agree Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: If not for late November/very early December climo I think we’d all already be saying “congrats philly, ACY or maybe even DC” for the December 1st potential. A Cut-off running into a monster Greenland block screams suppression to me. I’m thinking a climo compromise is in order, so at this point I wouldn’t at all be surprised if NNE is cold and dry and the bulk of the event is in the Northern Mid Atlantic. Just my first low confidence guess... In short, I think the trend on the GFS is real—it will persist—and should be taken seriously... The trend on EPS is north, discount? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The more likely scenario in a “shunted south” result is from disjointed mid levels causing weak surface reflection when the secondary tries to form. Why is that most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: The trend on EPS is north, discount? Everything should be considered at this point, but as I’ve said before, I think about what the evolution should look like independent of models, and then latch onto the guidance that begins to show it first. Basically to put it another way, I run my own model in my head—and right now the 6z GEFS looks much closer to what I’m thinking on this...maybe I’m wrong and the GFS is wrong, but one run of the EPS isn’t going to shake me one direction or the other right now, just need to see how things evolve over next several days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Why is that most likely. Because that is the most likely south solution. A total whiff would be more likely if the ULL traversed across the south ala Jan 16 and never quite fully could climb up the coast. This ULL is across the upper midwest ie, less likely to be a whiff. The ‘whiff’ result would be a disjointed mid level mess, not a ‘it’s missing south’. Get it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Everything should be considered at this point, but as I’ve said before, I think about what the evolution should look like independent of models, and then latch onto the guidance that begins to show it first. Basically to put it another way, I run my own model in my head—and right now the 6z GEFS looks much closer to what I’m thinking on this...maybe I’m wrong and the GFS is wrong, but one run of the EPS isn’t going to shake me one direction or the other right now, just need to see how things evolve over next several days. Pope’s brain model? With clothes on or off? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 42 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: To my untrained eye, the track is somewhat similar to Feb 9 and 10 2010. Yes. Similar. But that was with peak winter climo—northern jet stream further south— and that’s why i said a “compromise is in order”. So I think the bulk of it ends up further north—Northern Jersey, LI, cape and islands area... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Lotta Gronk spiking on a storm track at 6 day lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 6z EPS looks more tucked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Lotta Gronk spiking on a storm track at 6 day lead time. I haven’t seen much of spiking, merely discussions. That is what this place is for, right? Let me know otherwise and we can just regurgitate “wake me up on Friday” or “it’s 5 days out anything happen” posts that flood the thread...which adds essentially no value aka captain obvious. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: 6z EPS looks more tucked in. And warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I haven’t seen much of spiking, merely discussions. That is what this place is for, right? Let me know otherwise and we can just regurgitate “wake me up on Friday” or “it’s 5 days out anything happen” posts that flood the thread...which adds essentially no value aka captain obvious. Saying "Most Likely" is not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Saying "Most Likely" is not? Reading comprehension ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 26 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Everything should be considered at this point, but as I’ve said before, I think about what the evolution should look like independent of models, and then latch onto the guidance that begins to show it first. Basically to put it another way, I run my own model in my head—and right now the 6z GEFS looks much closer to what I’m thinking on this...maybe I’m wrong and the GFS is wrong, but one run of the EPS isn’t going to shake me one direction or the other right now, just need to see how things evolve over next several days. I do the same but confirmation bias is a dangerous game. FYI its not been 1 run of EPS probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I haven’t seen much of spiking, merely discussions. That is what this place is for, right? Let me know otherwise and we can just regurgitate “wake me up on Friday” or “it’s 5 days out anything happen” posts that flood the thread...which adds essentially no value aka captain obvious. Why so angry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 . My brain model is worse than the CRAS, so yeah I just go with the latest GFS/EURO blend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Why so angry Feeling better today? Good. Your positive contributions are needed. Could be a fun week of tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z EPS looks more tucked in. Great news. More dynamics . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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