Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s another storm prior to Xmas and possibly one Xmas itself Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Our term for an overrunning event where the flow in the midlevels (basically H5 to H8) is out of the southwest....there's some different flavors to them, but they generally have an advancing sleet line that may or may not make it to us in SNE and typically the steadier precip is a 5-7 hour "Thump" since it is all associated with the warm conveyor belt. The sleet line invariably stalls somewhere north of Tolland. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Here is something I always forget...forget in the sense that I don't know how to explain it to others. It's regarding the snow growth overlay on bufkit. I understand the significant of the purple and yellow contours (which compose of the snow growth zone) but I don't know how to explain them. Each of those contours is temp right? Right, temp. It's not the actual temperature, but the optimal temperatue for snow growth. So you want those numbers (temperature) to line up with the best lift (omega) + RH. This is my understanding of it, someone can correct me if im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Yeah they aren't actual temp contours in purple and yellow....they represent "growth" of the ice crystal....can't remember the units, but optimal is to have the omega centered inside the yellow contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Right, temp. It's not the actual temperature, but the optimal temperatue for snow growth. So you want those numbers (temperature) to line up with the best lift (omega) + RH. This is my understanding of it, someone can correct me if im wrong. I always like to try to explain it when I do blog posts but I always feel like I'm explaining it incorrectly or confusing. What I sort of struggle with is the stricture of it I guess..and why the structure is the way it is...for example on the right side of the image the shape of the 10, 15, 20. I hate when you look at something and you understand the significance of it (so like I understand when you see omega and lower omega values within this zone...that is great for snow) but you don't know how to explain it and properly. I thought we would do stuff in school with bufkit...but nobody even really heard of it or used it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Link? Models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Coolwx on the other hand plots omega with actual temperature, 0C, -12C and -18C...between -12 and -18 is supposed to be the optimal region where you want high omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I always like to try to explain it when I do blog posts but I always feel like I'm explaining it incorrectly or confusing. What I sort of struggle with is the stricture of it I guess..and why the structure is the way it is...for example on the right side of the image the shape of the 10, 15, 20. I hate when you look at something and you understand the significance of it (so like I understand when you see omega and lower omega values within this zone...that is great for snow) but you don't know how to explain it and properly. I thought we would do stuff in school with bufkit...but nobody even really heard of it or used it lol Which is a damn shame, i had to learn about how to use bufkit through friends at school, asking questions online and trial and error and just becoming familiar with it over the years... There should be an entire semester course on BUFKIT imo, you could easily fill up the whole time with everything you can do with that tool. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Eps now has a weak low signal for the 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Link? Just take the NAM and extrapolate 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it still might...need the vort to stay less strung out further east in order to really ramp it up. Players are still in the locker room suiting up and we will know more when they are actually on the field. Hopefully the trainers get that SW all taped up, juiced and ready to smash through the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Aw-oh ...that's nice. The Euro came back a bit more robust... Looks like this solution ( Tues->) offers start as snow, then ice/rain, ends as snow exit sort of scenario - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps now has a weak low signal for the 22 Can you send him the link he asked about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can you send him the link he asked about? With the one before ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah they aren't actual temp contours in purple and yellow....they represent "growth" of the ice crystal....can't remember the units, but optimal is to have the omega centered inside the yellow contours. ahhh growth...that makes sense. I think I remember that the structure of it ties into where temperatures fall between -10C and -20C. 4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Which is a damn shame, i had to learn about how to use bufkit through friends at school, asking questions online and trial and error and just becoming familiar with it over the years... There should be an entire semester course on BUFKIT imo, you could easily fill up the whole time with everything you can do with that tool. I only learned about bufkit from here...it was never once mentioned in any class. I agree...there should be a class devoted to bufkit...or at least included with Weather Analysis and Forecasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Still has zippo southern stream for the 22nd ... That's been this models ( Euro's ) achille's heel for that latter gig, and that the GFS has been maintaining a S/stream wave identity and the Euro never has seen it once. Fascinating - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Freezing Drizzle reported at BDL right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: ahhh growth...that makes sense. I think I remember that the structure of it ties into where temperatures fall between -10C and -20C. I only learned about bufkit from here...it was never once mentioned in any class. I agree...there should be a class devoted to bufkit...or at least included with Weather Analysis and Forecasting Eisenson doesn't know how to use it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Can you send him the link he asked about? What link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 But like I said earlier... the models have been oscillating between cabin fever boring and then more storminess, every other runs as of late... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Eisenson doesn't know how to use it though I asked him once if he knew about it and if we could ever work with it and he said yeah I've used it. the computers in the weather center didn't even have bufkit...I had to send an email for it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 This would be fun solution if this rendition were closer to reality mid week ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: I asked him once if he knew about it and if we could ever work with it and he said yeah I've used it. the computers in the weather center didn't even have bufkit...I had to send an email for it to happen. Crepon said that Boyle taught them in his class, they did some labs and stuff with it etc... It's a good tool everyone forecasting should use it, trouble with it though you can only use American models, GFS, NAM 3k etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: Crepon said that Boyle taught them in his class, they did some labs and stuff with it etc... It's a good tool everyone forecasting should use it, trouble with it though you can only use American models, GFS, NAM 3k etc. I talked to Boyle a bit about bufkit and he wasn't happy it wasn't taught in any of the classes. It actually could have tied in great in thermo when doing the cloud physics section 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is one of those events that ends up pissing people off have better snow climo and see someone south of them get pounded wherever that WAA axis sets up. You can see right now someone will get slammed by a fronto band somewhere in southern PA or central NJ while NYC up to BOS gets 1 inch Eh, You can piss and moan and stomp your feet and bust a keyboard, But in the end, Nothing any of us can or would be able to do about it, As you get older, It affects folks a lot less, Its very early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 That Euro run was Kevin's dream ... That looks like 2 or 3" of snow followed by .42" accretion on the massif ...followed by a possible 1-3" burst as heights fall and secondary probably fires off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That Euro run was Kevin's dream ... That looks like 2 or 3" of snow followed by .42" accretion on the massif ...followed by a possible 1-3" burst as heights fall and secondary probably fires off Yup. Snow to trees on lines to snow. And no power for the region for Cmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 18z NAM increases qpf even more wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yup. Snow to trees on lines to snow. And no power for the region for Cmas mm..nah, doesn't look like that kind of deal - ha ... I said dream, not 'wet dream' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: 18z NAM increases qpf even more wow Yee haw! nothin' like frozen Earth over-topping along rivers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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