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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our term for an overrunning event where the flow in the midlevels (basically H5 to H8) is out of the southwest....there's some different flavors to them, but they generally have an advancing sleet line that may or may not make it to us in SNE and typically the steadier precip is a 5-7 hour "Thump" since it is all associated with the warm conveyor belt.

The sleet line invariably stalls somewhere north of Tolland.

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Here is something I always forget...forget in the sense that I don't know how to explain it to others. It's regarding the snow growth overlay on bufkit. I understand the significant of the purple and yellow contours (which compose of the snow growth zone) but I don't know how to explain them. Each of those contours is temp right?

image.thumb.png.587c6f3da261c044cff446b3e077c8cd.png

Right, temp. It's not the actual temperature, but the optimal temperatue for snow growth. So you want those numbers (temperature) to line up with the best lift (omega) + RH. This is my understanding of it, someone can correct me if im wrong.

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Right, temp. It's not the actual temperature, but the optimal temperatue for snow growth. So you want those numbers (temperature) to line up with the best lift (omega) + RH. This is my understanding of it, someone can correct me if im wrong.

I always like to try to explain it when I do blog posts but I always feel like I'm explaining it incorrectly or confusing. 

What I sort of struggle with is the stricture of it I guess..and why the structure is the way it is...for example on the right side of the image the shape of the 10, 15, 20.

I hate when you look at something and you understand the significance of it (so like I understand when you see omega and lower omega values within this zone...that is great for snow) but you don't know how to explain it and properly. 

I thought we would do stuff in school with bufkit...but nobody even really heard of it or used it lol

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I always like to try to explain it when I do blog posts but I always feel like I'm explaining it incorrectly or confusing. 

What I sort of struggle with is the stricture of it I guess..and why the structure is the way it is...for example on the right side of the image the shape of the 10, 15, 20.

I hate when you look at something and you understand the significance of it (so like I understand when you see omega and lower omega values within this zone...that is great for snow) but you don't know how to explain it and properly. 

I thought we would do stuff in school with bufkit...but nobody even really heard of it or used it lol

Which is a damn shame, i had to learn about how to use bufkit through friends at school, asking questions online and trial and error and just becoming familiar with it over the years...

There should be an entire semester course on BUFKIT imo, you could easily fill up the whole time with everything you can do with that tool.

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21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it still might...need the vort to stay less strung out further east in order to really ramp it up.

Players are still in the locker room suiting up and we will know more when they are actually on the field.  Hopefully the trainers get that SW all taped up, juiced and ready to smash through the line.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah they aren't actual temp contours in purple and yellow....they represent "growth" of the ice crystal....can't remember the units, but optimal is to have the omega centered inside the yellow contours.

ahhh growth...that makes sense. 

I think I remember that the structure of it ties into where temperatures fall between -10C and -20C. 

4 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Which is a damn shame, i had to learn about how to use bufkit through friends at school, asking questions online and trial and error and just becoming familiar with it over the years...

There should be an entire semester course on BUFKIT imo, you could easily fill up the whole time with everything you can do with that tool.

I only learned about bufkit from here...it was never once mentioned in any class. I agree...there should be a class devoted to bufkit...or at least included with Weather Analysis and Forecasting 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

ahhh growth...that makes sense. 

I think I remember that the structure of it ties into where temperatures fall between -10C and -20C. 

I only learned about bufkit from here...it was never once mentioned in any class. I agree...there should be a class devoted to bufkit...or at least included with Weather Analysis and Forecasting 

Eisenson doesn't know how to use it though

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I asked him once if he knew about it and if we could ever work with it and he said yeah I've used it.

the computers in the weather center didn't even have bufkit...I had to send an email for it to happen.

Crepon said that Boyle taught them in his class, they did some labs and stuff with it etc...

It's a good tool everyone forecasting should use it, trouble with it though you can only use American models, GFS, NAM 3k etc.

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Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

Crepon said that Boyle taught them in his class, they did some labs and stuff with it etc...

It's a good tool everyone forecasting should use it, trouble with it though you can only use American models, GFS, NAM 3k etc.

I talked to Boyle a bit about bufkit and he wasn't happy it wasn't taught in any of the classes. It actually could have tied in great in thermo when doing the cloud physics section 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is one of those events that ends up pissing people off have better snow climo and see someone south of them get pounded wherever that WAA axis sets up. You can see right now someone will get slammed by a fronto band somewhere in southern PA or central NJ while NYC up to BOS gets 1 inch 

Eh, You can piss and moan and stomp your feet and bust a keyboard, But in the end, Nothing any of us can or would be able to do about it, As you get older, It affects folks a lot less, Its very early in the season.

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