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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Really difficult not to like where we’re sitting with MJO likely to region/phase 1 and a -NAO/ - -AO in heading into late December. A merry Christmas indeed. :santa::snowing:
 

I think Monday night delivers mostly white for bulk of us, northwest of I84/I90. Low end warning snowfall looks good for broad area of sub forum. My first guess...

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Just now, dryslot said:

Advisory snow , We’ll take it.

This is one of those events that ends up pissing people off have better snow climo and see someone south of them get pounded wherever that WAA axis sets up. You can see right now someone will get slammed by a fronto band somewhere in southern PA or central NJ while NYC up to BOS gets 1 inch 

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2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is one of those events that ends up pissing people off have better snow climo and see someone south of them get pounded wherever that WAA axis sets up. You can see right now someone will get slammed by a fronto band somewhere in southern PA or central NJ while NYC up to BOS gets 1 inch 

Fronto slams as far north as Boston, typical 

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32 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Really difficult not to like where we’re sitting with MJO likely to region/phase 1 and a -NAO/ - -AO in heading into late December. A merry Christmas indeed. :santa::snowing:
 

I think Monday night delivers mostly white for bulk of us, northwest of I84/I90. Low end warning snowfall looks good for broad area of sub forum. My first guess...

 

The Pope has spoken.  Go in peace.

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2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

This winter has sucked

I’ve been out skiing multiple times already with mid-winter like conditions and natural trails already, and winter hasn’t even started.  Conditions were better pre- thanksgiving than some Christmas weeks.  Drive thirty minutes north of nyc and there was feet of snow.  Maybe just a little perspective..and this is from someone who lives in the nyc area.  
 

by the way, appreciate the knowledge in this forum..learn a lot from you guys.

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Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Guys... Forgive me. What is SWFE

Our term for an overrunning event where the flow in the midlevels (basically H5 to H8) is out of the southwest....there's some different flavors to them, but they generally have an advancing sleet line that may or may not make it to us in SNE and typically the steadier precip is a 5-7 hour "Thump" since it is all associated with the warm conveyor belt.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Our term for an overrunning event where the flow in the midlevels (basically H5 to H8) is out of the southwest....there's some different flavors to them, but they generally have an advancing sleet line that may or may not make it to us in SNE and typically the steadier precip is a 5-7 hour "Thump" since it is all associated with the warm conveyor belt.

We will see by Sunday if Thumper the Dumper decides to show up. ‘‘Tis early 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our term for an overrunning event where the flow in the midlevels (basically H5 to H8) is out of the southwest....there's some different flavors to them, but they generally have an advancing sleet line that may or may not make it to us in SNE and typically the steadier precip is a 5-7 hour "Thump" since it is all associated with the warm conveyor belt.

Thanks gentlemen

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Here is something I always forget...forget in the sense that I don't know how to explain it to others. It's regarding the snow growth overlay on bufkit. I understand the significant of the purple and yellow contours (which compose of the snow growth zone) but I don't know how to explain them. Each of those contours is temp right?

image.thumb.png.587c6f3da261c044cff446b3e077c8cd.png

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Imho, a lot of these modeling peregrinations we've been observing are because of the fast flow. 

At really no time during the last three to five days of modeling the heights from old Mexico ...over the GOM latitudes, to regions over the SW Atlantic Basin, have heights really rendered to total normalcy.  They are neutral to above, sometimes very much so depending on model species and cycle therein. 

That is presenting a problem for mechanical wave-spaces that attempt to propagate E through the field at middle latitudes. The "fanning" effect that people are seeing with vorticity getting pulverized between the ~ eastern Lakes to Texas is a direct result of high antecedent heights resisting, and concomitant higher that average geostrophic wind velocities result over the eastern/SE U.S.; this than absorbing said wave mechanics.  

I warned folks ...well, beginning 7 years ago... ha, that this kind of thing may be increasingly more observed as the Hadley Cell latitudes encroach into the lower Ferril Cell latitudes... In 50 years, there may only be two cells that define the hemispheric circulation engine:  Hadley and Polar...with just a screaming wind banded max separating them at most times.  

Anyway, back on present Earth... The Solstice 'event' that's been popping up among the various GFS members appears to take place when the N/Stream backs off some... thus, lowering compression, relaxes the wind fields ...and in that time range, S/W and beta-scaled L/W have more mechanical presence in the flow and are those more able to engineer storminess.  Those members have been taking advantage.  But, they could still all be wrong, too. oy -

But it's not just about wave absorption and shearing. It's also about timing ... adding that into the fray only complicates things further. 

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