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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Interesting ensemble battle wrt that Solstice era event out there. 

There were enough 00z members of the GFS cluster that were still signaling a system in the east to not to give up on that, despite the 00z overall complexion to not do anything at least excuse imagined ( jesus ). 

Yet, the EPS mean is very flat and uninspired in that D8-9-10 range, even suggestive of a flat roll-out ridge through the NP/Lakes longitudes getting ready to furnace eastern N/A ( most likely .. ). I mean that's the impression I get from this image's extrapolation below .. an extrapolation based in no small part on the 'animation' of the two days leading. It just looks like it was programmed to ruin Christmas: 

image.png.121575f88f678601762d94a6dfea8527.png

Obviously the mean/average can be misleading somewhat, if there are particular stand-out awesome versions contained whose voices are being dinned out by the loudness of the majority asshole runs. I mean, that's how Democracies of humanity work too - why the hell not.  

In fairness, the mean of the GFS is not hugely different in principle comparing this image above, for the same time ... the stellar deterministically dependable D 10 10 10 .. It's actually just presenting more curvature amplitude variation on the same them.  My guess is there's like one...maaybe two bombs in the total EPS din, and the rest are empty. 

So perhaps the EPS will go ahead and modulate its way on over to the GFS, which will also modulate on over to the cryospheric dystopian horror cinema that seems to give people an odd elation high ( fascinating goal ..).    

Like I said yesterday... or at least intimated, I'm not ready to subsume the GFS anything in lieu of the Euro, for the extended, because my personal experiences with the Euro is that it is not infallible in that time range - anyway...yeah... I get it. But, it is enough so that the GFS/mean therein is just as plausible.   No... the Euro owns < 5.5 ... and probably more like 4.5 day leads. Otherwise, it's pop-corn and coke movie time. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

If you have at least some background of weather you should know not to make that connection...it's much more understandable for the general public to say that. 

Of course, But its the public that makes the assumption, Everyone out there though wants to associate that if you get 2" of rainfall that it would be 24" of snow if it was cold, Thats not the case in most instances.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Of course, But its the public that makes the assumption, Everyone out there though wants to associate that if you get 2" of rainfall that it would be 24" of snow if it was cold, Thats not the case in most instances.

It happens quite a bit on twitter from hobbyists and I'm sure I've seen other meteorologists say it too lol. I want to count how many times I hear people say it this weekend...will be fun 

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My pet peeve is when we get 8" of rain, and someone like snow88 will explain how much snow we would have gotten if it were 20 degrees colder...with blatant  disregard for the compromised ability of colder air to hold moisture.

Several on air Mets in Boston used to do this in the past and it was incredibly annoying 

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2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I want a good ice storm. when was the last real damaging ice storm we had? Dec 08? But even down in CT...can't really remember anything significant since 98...although there might have been a decent one in 2002?

As a forester in Maine, I view ice storms as by far the biggest wx threat to the resource, except perhaps at/near the coast.  As a wx weenie I find ice storms to be one of the most interesting of winter phenomena - 1998 is the most impactful wx event of my experience.  Looking at serious ice storms at or reasonably near to where I lived at the time:

--Jan. 1953, NNJ:  Huge tree damage, power off 6 days at our home, about 700' asl.  Below 500' mostly RA.
--Dec. 1970, NNJ:  Serious tree breakage but nothing like 1953.  Brief power loss
--Dec. 1973, Northeast:  This event devastated W CT and SW MA.  Much of that region was still dark when we traveled BGR-NNJ for Christmas a week later.  While utility poles were crumbling in CT/MA, my parents in NNJ had ZR at 15° while at our BGR home it was 56 with RA+.
--Dec. 1983, N.Maine:  About the same magnitude as 12/70 in NNJ.  We lost some trees but power stayed on.
--Jan. 1998:  Perhaps the most extensive damage and areal impact of any North American ice storm on record.  Damage near our Gardiner home was worse than 1953 at our NNJ place, though not by a whole lot.  No power 4 days, some nearby folks 2 weeks+.
--Dec. 2008:  Mild at my current home, devastating on central MA hills and nearby.
--Next???

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I have a tepid suspicion the 12z guidance suite, across the board, offers more cinema and features for hopes and dream realization . heh. 

This happened 24 hours ago .. The previous 00z run was concrete for blood, drop dead douchy looking. Then, the 12z yesterday brought a lot back to rejoice.  Now, the 00z suite more than less goes back to that previous cycle's vibe.   

Having this 12z cycle come in more like yesterday's 12z, off-set dynamic and far more entertaining overall appeal is A,   ...not likely to happen because I'm merely mentioning it ... and B, understandable because of 'sloshing'? 

It's a "Science Fiction" process in the atmosphere that I noticed years ago, where the models seem to do just what the suggests.  En masse, move in a given direction, then, yo-yo back... yo-yo forward, yo-yo back.  I see it more frequently in the summer monitoring heat wave evolution - a phenomenon that is highly coveted by the ensemble of users in this particular social mediasphere, of course...  But, you'll get this big ridge expression and heat dome on one look, then the next cycle pan-cakes all ridges...only to bring them back. It almost gives an impression of like 'tides' in the models - which would be interesting as they are not actually real, but virtual representations and so forth.  They don't always do this...  but there some kind of synchronizing phenomenon there where they tend to harmonically express the same error in a given direction - that may be all it is... Chancy harmonics.  who knows...  

But 00z shit, 12z hope, 00z shit...   maybe 12z hope?   

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You can bun me all you want, Ray ( lol ) but it's true... that harmonic thing does seem to take place from time to time, and as so many of us in here are really here to get that 'drug', it's the only hope they got that their pusher isn't pinched and will show up for the next fix more sooner than later. 

 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I dunno, a fart in church is not boring to me. 

Heh,... 'specially if it's loud from a miscalculated leaner,  right when the pastor is about to quote the book of Jobe ...

" ...And he said to man, 'Behold, the fear  riiiiiiiiiIIII PH, of the Lord ... ah, hem" 

 

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42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It happens quite a bit on twitter from hobbyists and I'm sure I've seen other meteorologists say it too lol. I want to count how many times I hear people say it this weekend...will be fun 

I've heard/seen on air mets mention it numerous times. "For those who are interested we would have had 2 feet of snow if all the rain had been snow"..

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For the convective nuts ... 

the 12z NAM has regional Lifted Indexes down to -1 .. 0 from NYC to BOS and southeast.   T1 at Logan to 15 C with 500H thickness to 563 dm suggests warm sector intrusion perhaps along that line.  Hell, S wind to 30 knots too - almost wonder if there's rotation in there...  

That's a wild-like complexion either way.  Even in the interior, where I suspect that gets some resistance and is forced aloft by some...there may be lightning flashes and crackles with shallow inversion and warm frontal success off the deck.  

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Just now, Hoth said:

My kingdom for that QPF with temps in the teens.

Imagine if that was all snow!!!! This would be 40-50" easy! And with temps in the teens you can automatically add 30:1 ratios for the entire event. This would yield 120-150". Throw in some good banding and thundersnow and would we probably be at around 200" and that's being very conservative. 

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9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

What a beautiful instant occlusion. 

gfs_z500a_atl_25.png

OSU, that model has no idea what the hell it wants that energy to do next week.  If we get a more amplified arctic jet, we will see some impacts from that potential coastal system.  Southern energy is not pulled in or phased with the arctic shortwave and we get a near miss.

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