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December 2019 Discussion


Torch Tiger
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Just now, weathafella said:

So it begs the old question...less up to date upper air data?  I thought that was no longer true?

I don’t know, I’ve noticed a lot more bigger shifts that the Euro makes on some of these runs then it use too when it was just being run twice daily.

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So it begs the old question...less up to date upper air data?  I thought that was no longer true?

I don’t think it’s the old school thinking of lack of data. It’s got plenty of data with new satellites, remote sensing, aircraft etc.  I just think it’s the euro. They aren’t massive jumps, but something I’ve noticed. It could be right though. I’m not saying to discard it.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I don’t know, I’ve noticed a lot more bigger shifts that the Euro makes on some of these runs then it use too when it was just being run twice daily.

Well now you have more samples to see that too. So it makes it look probably more unstable than it is. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think it’s the old school thinking of lack of data. It’s got plenty of data with new satellites, remote sensing, aircraft etc.  I just think it’s the euro. They aren’t massive jumps, but something I’ve noticed. It could be right though. I’m not saying to discard it.

I thought I read something a few months back that the initialization process on the 6z/18z (Euro) was slightly different than the 0z/12z...like minor tweaks with parameterization. I'll have to see if I can find it. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Well now you have more samples to see that too. So it makes it look probably more unstable than it is. 

I’m glad you brought that up though because I had notice some of these changes a while back and probably when the 2 runs came online that there were some differences only to revert back on the the other two runs, Euro use to make just subtle ticks one way or the other but now we seem to see some bigger shifts on times in the off hour runs.

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Get the sandbags ready, Ginx!


* Heavy rain late tonight through Saturday morning will result in
  widespread 1.50 to 2.50 inches of rain. Localized higher amounts
  of 3 to 3.50 inches are possible. This will bring the potential
  for flooding, which will continue through the weekend on some
  rivers as a result of runoff.

I have been lighting up the signal for days but all the snow mania has dimmed it. Rivers and especially small streams are a concern.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I want a good ice storm. when was the last real damaging ice storm we had? Dec 08? But even down in CT...can't really remember anything significant since 98...although there might have been a decent one in 2002?

CT didn't get much of anything in 2008 except for the highest spots of Litchfield county. 

N CT had a pretty good one in early January 2005. I think it was 1/6/05. They also had the 11/17/02 ice storm. More elevation dependent. 

Id say parts of the state did pretty well on 12/23/17 as well. 

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Just getting caught up on the models for the Tuesday deal and have to say it’s pretty strung out and a weak system that’s not going to produce anything of significance as modeled right now, Need a stronger vort to come out of the southern steam but that will bring other problems with it too if the air mass is marginal.

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15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I want a good ice storm. when was the last real damaging ice storm we had? Dec 08? But even down in CT...can't really remember anything significant since 98...although there might have been a decent one in 2002?

We had a decent one down here last January. Not severe, but took a lot of branches and weak trees down.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

CT didn't get much of anything in 2008 except for the highest spots of Litchfield county. 

N CT had a pretty good one in early January 2005. I think it was 1/6/05. They also had the 11/17/02 ice storm. More elevation dependent. 

Id say parts of the state did pretty well on 12/23/17 as well. 

CT just missed out in 2008. I don't remember the 2005 one...not sure why. The 2017 was pretty decent..wasn't far off from being a pretty significant deal. 

I remember the 1998 one quite well...that was fun

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