jbenedet Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Really difficult not to like where we’re sitting with MJO likely to region/phase 1 and a -NAO/ - -AO in heading into late December. A merry Christmas indeed. I think Monday night delivers mostly white for bulk of us, northwest of I84/I90. Low end warning snowfall looks good for broad area of sub forum. My first guess... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Unless we see the CAD trend stronger, I feel this will the best possible outcome for winter enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I want to see saggy trees and hear transformers pop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I want to see saggy boobs and hear thighs slap 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Advisory snow , We’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 PAC doesn’t look bad with PNA neutral. I the PAC being slightly unfavorable is easily offset by greatly improving climo as we head into latter half of December with a -NAO (assuming it holds). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Advisory snow , We’ll take it. This is one of those events that ends up pissing people off have better snow climo and see someone south of them get pounded wherever that WAA axis sets up. You can see right now someone will get slammed by a fronto band somewhere in southern PA or central NJ while NYC up to BOS gets 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Advisory snow , We’ll take it. Then Arctic Hounds,wind chills looks like my standard SW overrunning to light sleet ice then drizzle.verbatim 3 inches here .2 ice/rain. it never gets above freezing Pike North and Ct Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This is one of those events that ends up pissing people off have better snow climo and see someone south of them get pounded wherever that WAA axis sets up. You can see right now someone will get slammed by a fronto band somewhere in southern PA or central NJ while NYC up to BOS gets 1 inch Fronto slams as far north as Boston, typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Then Arctic Hounds, looks like my standard SW overrunning to light sleet ice then drizzle.verbatim 3 inches here .2 ice/rain. it never gets above freezing Pike North and Ct Valley Going to get quite icy for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Ugh so much potential. I'd almost rather get this southern stream system out of the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Fronto slams as far north as Boston, typical Yea, I'll probably get poked, relatively speaking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Someone had to. He left the low hanging fruit on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I'll probably get poked, relatively speaking... Nothing to write home about but it’s all frozen here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Nice snow to ice event with below freezing . We take . 2-4” then lock in with zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Make SWFE great again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Make SWFE great again. Not with a vort strung out between Montreal and DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 32 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Really difficult not to like where we’re sitting with MJO likely to region/phase 1 and a -NAO/ - -AO in heading into late December. A merry Christmas indeed. I think Monday night delivers mostly white for bulk of us, northwest of I84/I90. Low end warning snowfall looks good for broad area of sub forum. My first guess... The Pope has spoken. Go in peace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Not with a vort strung out between Montreal and DFW. Snow otg Might last to Christmas fulfilling Kevs fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Make SWFE great again. Guys... Forgive me. What is SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Guys... Forgive me. What is SWFE Warm air advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bwt3650 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: This winter has sucked I’ve been out skiing multiple times already with mid-winter like conditions and natural trails already, and winter hasn’t even started. Conditions were better pre- thanksgiving than some Christmas weeks. Drive thirty minutes north of nyc and there was feet of snow. Maybe just a little perspective..and this is from someone who lives in the nyc area. by the way, appreciate the knowledge in this forum..learn a lot from you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Guys... Forgive me. What is SWFE Our term for an overrunning event where the flow in the midlevels (basically H5 to H8) is out of the southwest....there's some different flavors to them, but they generally have an advancing sleet line that may or may not make it to us in SNE and typically the steadier precip is a 5-7 hour "Thump" since it is all associated with the warm conveyor belt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Our term for an overrunning event where the flow in the midlevels (basically H5 to H8) is out of the southwest....there's some different flavors to them, but they generally have an advancing sleet line that may or may not make it to us in SNE and typically the steadier precip is a 5-7 hour "Thump" since it is all associated with the warm conveyor belt. We will see by Sunday if Thumper the Dumper decides to show up. ‘‘Tis early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Snow otg Might last to Christmas fulfilling Kevs fantasy There’s another storm prior to Xmas and possibly one Xmas itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Our term for an overrunning event where the flow in the midlevels (basically H5 to H8) is out of the southwest....there's some different flavors to them, but they generally have an advancing sleet line that may or may not make it to us in SNE and typically the steadier precip is a 5-7 hour "Thump" since it is all associated with the warm conveyor belt. Thanks gentlemen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: We will see by Sunday if Thumper the Dumper decides to show up. ‘‘Tis early Yeah it still might...need the vort to stay less strung out further east in order to really ramp it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Here is something I always forget...forget in the sense that I don't know how to explain it to others. It's regarding the snow growth overlay on bufkit. I understand the significant of the purple and yellow contours (which compose of the snow growth zone) but I don't know how to explain them. Each of those contours is temp right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not with a vort strung out between Montreal and DFW. I know. What a piece of crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Imho, a lot of these modeling peregrinations we've been observing are because of the fast flow. At really no time during the last three to five days of modeling the heights from old Mexico ...over the GOM latitudes, to regions over the SW Atlantic Basin, have heights really rendered to total normalcy. They are neutral to above, sometimes very much so depending on model species and cycle therein. That is presenting a problem for mechanical wave-spaces that attempt to propagate E through the field at middle latitudes. The "fanning" effect that people are seeing with vorticity getting pulverized between the ~ eastern Lakes to Texas is a direct result of high antecedent heights resisting, and concomitant higher that average geostrophic wind velocities result over the eastern/SE U.S.; this than absorbing said wave mechanics. I warned folks ...well, beginning 7 years ago... ha, that this kind of thing may be increasingly more observed as the Hadley Cell latitudes encroach into the lower Ferril Cell latitudes... In 50 years, there may only be two cells that define the hemispheric circulation engine: Hadley and Polar...with just a screaming wind banded max separating them at most times. Anyway, back on present Earth... The Solstice 'event' that's been popping up among the various GFS members appears to take place when the N/Stream backs off some... thus, lowering compression, relaxes the wind fields ...and in that time range, S/W and beta-scaled L/W have more mechanical presence in the flow and are those more able to engineer storminess. Those members have been taking advantage. But, they could still all be wrong, too. oy - But it's not just about wave absorption and shearing. It's also about timing ... adding that into the fray only complicates things further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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