dryslot Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Of course but it keeps showing it. A couple of gefs members are also showing it now. And one of those was that op run.................. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Busy at work this morning, lol at gfs death star. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yup. Classic 5-8” front end thump N of Pike to CNE followed by a few hours of pingers or light freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: And one of those was that op run.................. Nice signal but way too far in advance. What we have going for us is the trend in the NAO and AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Nice signal but way too far in advance. What we have going for us is the trend in the NAO and AO. It does look like we will see something in that time frame, But that was the most extreme outcome possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 There will most certainly be a storm in that period...it's just whether that materializes. Regardless, it looks like we'll have (at least a brief) period of some pretty impressive cold. -30 to -35C being advertised at 850...yikes. Even if that modified to like -20 to -25...that's still some serious cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: There will most certainly be a storm in that period...it's just whether that materializes. Regardless, it looks like we'll have (at least a brief) period of some pretty impressive cold. -30 to -35C being advertised at 850...yikes. Even if that modified to like -20 to -25...that's still some serious cold. Yeah...that’s starting to show up on the extended forecasts. Hopefully we have some snow on the ground to at least make the chill festive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, NorEastermass128 said: Yeah...that’s starting to show up on the extended forecasts. Hopefully we have some snow on the ground to at least make the chill festive. I'm sorry but there is nothing that can make -35C 850 air feel festive lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Partial subsume phase from D8+ is pure buck-shot guess-work... That said, I agree that "something" has been popping up in the ensembles of the GFS for a few days. I actually posted about that Solstice 'hint' last week - don't care to go look for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Partial subsume phase from D8+ is pure buck-shot guess-work... That said, I agree that "something" has been popping up in the ensembles of the GFS for a few days. I actually posted about that Solstice 'hint' last week - don't care to go look for it. I think you also mentioned the hints at the -30C air too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 39 minutes ago, Drop the Trough said: mole or third nipple? lol, I admit I wasn't focusing on the dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 12z Euro slower and further N with next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think you also mentioned the hints at the -30C air too The GFS camp's been trying to dump that into the midriff Canadian shield for days but you know ... cold air mass loading is very iffy in guidance in general. Even if that storm or some saner version of it transpires... I have difficulty believing -33 F at this latitude in 2019. Can it happen.. perhaps. But it'd be like a -7 SD 500 year thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 What's the definition of significant icing? Pretty quick analysis of 12z GFS & GGEM puts most locals at ~0.25" qpf of potential freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 No ice, please. Busted my ACL up after last January's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I'm sorry but there is nothing that can make -35C 850 air feel festive lol. Toss is like a hot tub salad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Classic N of I-90 jack. Not much in C/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: What's the definition of significant icing? Pretty quick analysis of 12z GFS & GGEM puts most locals at ~0.25" qpf of potential freezing rain. Ice Storm Warning criteria is 1/2" or more of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Euro looks a little warmer. Seems like snow and or snow to mix depending location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: The GFS camp's been trying to dump that into the midriff Canadian shield for days but you know ... cold air mass loading is very iffy in guidance in general. Even if that storm or some saner version of it transpires... I have difficulty believing -33 F at this latitude in 2019. Can it happen.. perhaps. But it'd be like a -7 SD 500 year thing Just now, dendrite said: Toss is like a hot tub salad. I hope it doesn't happen. I'm freezing just looking at it. Looks like the record lowest at 850 for Dec 23 is around -20C. This would be a pretty record shattering cold airmass lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Actually that's not a bad run this far out for up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 5 days out, but the surface cold locks in and actually filters in from the NNE down here....definitely an icy look this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 These southern vorts tend to juice up as we get closer. Ice storm for SNE is deff in play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1052mb HP centered over the CO Rockies next week on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Need a juicier system for any damage though. That qpf ain’t gonna cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: These southern vorts tend to juice up as we get closer. Ice storm for SNE is deff in play. A little concerning right now for down this way in that aspect...GFS is way too quick to warm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 It looks like snow/sleet/zr and a modest amount at best I’m today’s guidance. That said, we continue this December to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Need a juicier system for any damage though. That qpf ain’t gonna cut it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 looks like 3-5" around here, maybe pretty icy below the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: A little concerning right now for down this way in that aspect...GFS is way too quick to warm here. Yea the gfs had us in the upper 30s during the dryslot in the CNE blizzard and how did that play out? Juice this up some more, likely, and sound the ice alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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