December 2019 Discussion

[Typhoon Tip]

GFS:  In general these days I am not as willing to discount it, in lieu of Euro, out of hand ... Seems that was more doable as a tact, oh... five years ago. But, for whatever reason  ( and I'm sure this in no way shape or form shows up in any empirical verification scoring just to because some god of douche thinks it is entertaining to start social media vitriol ! ), it at times does better in the D6-9 time range ... beating out the Euro with sniffed trends. It'll put up a single run sometimes that nails the thing .. Problem is, it summarily has trouble with conviction. It starts going, 'yeah but what if..' usually right around the temporal seam of the mid turning page into short range.  Only to come back when it's 12 hours out and nail it again!  It's probably why the Euro scores better? Now that I think about that; by shear weight of its consistency, alone.  Suppose it is consistently wrong 30% of the time, but the GFS is 100% right on just three cycles out of 10, but is otherwise 40% frustrating... I may be just remembering those early runs that were 100%  

But I'm digressing... I just wanted to say, if the GFS does verify and quasi- cuts that middling low west through Buffalo, it's definitely going to be wrong about the amount of cold boundary layer erosion over interior S and C NE regions it's selling.  There is a "scooter" high - is that right? - up N of Maine, retreating N, not E... and slow enough N to impart ageostrophic drain and ice (most likely) almost down to the S. Coast. That will never never never never never erode out as liberally as the GFS, given those antecedent synoptic parameters and their subsequent evolution...not by experience .. not by climate.  The model is unwittingly signaling a short duration icing event.  'Sides, the ptype products indicate ice does fight some, so it's most likely a llv resolution thing. 

ECM: It's been more consistently E of the GFS comparing the last several cycles.  And, as a testament to the consistency mentioned above...it's also had good run to run continuity. I actually like this run better than the GFS, despite the reality that once in a while it detects early ideas quicker, based upon climate of storm tracks alone. The next in succession tends to be more E of the predecessor.  Not always... Times of intense retrograde atmospheres, those present exceptions.  But this is that... The system this weekend is also east of this last one ... just doesn't have any cold air.  In fact, the models are starting to commit more so to coastal low.. 

Unrelated to next week:  I'm noticing a deep range GFS and ensemble member tendency therein, to stall lows around NE and have them resume a motion anomalously ESE into the Atlantic. I've noticed in the past, that can at times presage a -NAO eruption.  It's almost like there is a scaffold in the physics et al that supports the NAO, but the the models have yet to 'fill it in' and build one in the form of blocking.  Even the Euro ..D 8-10...has a tendency to pearl SPV's from the NW of Canada to the mid Maritimes SW of the D. Straight, yet... seems interestingly too low with the geopotential medium over the D. Straight its self/Greenland. Those regions seem prone to collect some atmospheric depth.. So, may be something to watch for.  

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I'm practically last in the snow race. Pretty epic crap luck to start the season here. Although the clean up has been easy.

congrats dendrite!

[alex]

I'm a weenie but this time it's a business question. We have a video shoot for Sam Adams at my house - they're shooting commercials for their Cold Snap line, and wanted a snowy place to shoot at. This will be Wednesday the 18th. Euro looks pretty good. Would GFS be rain? Obviously too early to tell what will happen, but I'm trying to figure out chances of rain vs snow. Such bad timing, after 5 or 6 weeks of constant snow!!!

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, alex said:

I'm a weenie but this time it's a business question. We have a video shoot for Sam Adams at my house - they're shooting commercials for their Cold Snap line, and wanted a snowy place to shoot at. This will be Wednesday the 18th. Euro looks pretty good. Would GFS be rain? Obviously too early to tell what will happen, but I'm trying to figure out chances of rain vs snow. Such bad timing, after 5 or 6 weeks of constant snow!!!

I think the timing will be perfect.  Save us some Sam. EPS has you with a 70% chance of 3 inches Wed too

[Whineminster]

Tippy calling for major ice it sounds like.....win win win!!! 

[Greg]

Keep the Ice Storm potential away please. Ice sucks! Period! It is the most dangerous form of precipitation know to man and beast.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Tippy calling for major ice it sounds like.....win win win!!! 

"...The model is unwittingly signaling a short duration icing event...."   equals "... major ice.."  ??  

lol 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

SNE got worse luck last year imho...at least in MA. Esp the pike to NH border zone....we were missing stuff by 30 miles. At least we were still comfortably above average for snow in '07-'08 in most of MA

I would take '07-'08 again, especially in Methuen. That December is up there with 1995 for my fav, but loses out narrowly due to grincher....otherwise it would. Have won..

[40/70 Benchmark]

Agree on blocking in the offing, John...maybe a month away.

[OSUmetstud]

Newest ukmet seasonal is out. Looks like a (potentially) favorable gradient pattern.  

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS:  In general these days I am not as willing to discount it, in lieu of Euro, out of hand ... Seems that was more doable as a tact, oh... five years ago. But, for whatever reason  ( and I'm sure this in no way shape or form shows up in any empirical verification scoring just to because some god of douche thinks it is entertaining to start social media vitriol ! ), it at times does better in the D6-9 time range ... beating out the Euro with sniffed trends. It'll put up a single run sometimes that nails the thing .. Problem is, it summarily has trouble with conviction. It starts going, 'yeah but what if..' usually right around the temporal seam of the mid turning page into short range.  Only to come back when it's 12 hours out and nail it again!  It's probably why the Euro scores better? Now that I think about that; by shear weight of its consistency, alone.  Suppose it is consistently wrong 30% of the time, but the GFS is 100% right on just three cycles out of 10, but is otherwise 40% frustrating... I may be just remembering those early runs that were 100%  

But I'm digressing... I just wanted to say, if the GFS does verify and quasi- cuts that middling low west through Buffalo, it's definitely going to be wrong about the amount of cold boundary layer erosion over interior S and C NE regions it's selling.  There is a "scooter" high - is that right? - up N of Maine, retreating N, not E... and slow enough N to impart ageostrophic drain and ice (most likely) almost down to the S. Coast. That will never never never never never erode out as liberally as the GFS, given those antecedent synoptic parameters and their subsequent evolution...not by experience .. not by climate.  The model is unwittingly signaling a short duration icing event.  'Sides, the ptype products indicate ice does fight some, so it's most likely a llv resolution thing. 

ECM: It's been more consistently E of the GFS comparing the last several cycles.  And, as a testament to the consistency mentioned above...it's also had good run to run continuity. I actually like this run better than the GFS, despite the reality that once in a while it detects early ideas quicker, based upon climate of storm tracks alone. The next in succession tends to be more E of the predecessor.  Not always... Times of intense retrograde atmospheres, those present exceptions.  But this is that... The system this weekend is also east of this last one ... just doesn't have any cold air.  In fact, the models are starting to commit more so to coastal low.. 

Unrelated to next week:  I'm noticing a deep range GFS and ensemble member tendency therein, to stall lows around NE and have them resume a motion anomalously ESE into the Atlantic. I've noticed in the past, that can at times presage a -NAO eruption.  It's almost like there is a scaffold in the physics et al that supports the NAO, but the the models have yet to 'fill it in' and build one in the form of blocking.  Even the Euro ..D 8-10...has a tendency to pearl SPV's from the NW of Canada to the mid Maritimes SW of the D. Straight, yet... seems interestingly too low with the geopotential medium over the D. Straight its self/Greenland. Those regions seem prone to collect some atmospheric depth.. So, may be something to watch for.  

The Euro had the high in the atlantic yesterday...haven't looked today.

[Go Kart Mozart]

We are hanging our hats on the Maritimes low holding its ground and forcing next week's low further south.   Unless there is a blocking high further downstream with a couple of closed contours, these Maritimes lows always retreat faster than first modeled.  I think the GFS has the right idea shuffling this off to Buffalo.

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

We are hanging our hats on the Maritimes low holding its ground and forcing next week's low further south.   Unless there is a blocking high further downstream with a couple of closed contours, these Maritimes lows always retreat faster than first modeled.  I think the GFS has the right idea shuffling this off to Buffalo.

A week out ? It's an eternity for the model.

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

We are hanging our hats on the Maritimes low holding its ground and forcing next week's low further south.   Unless there is a blocking high further downstream with a couple of closed contours, these Maritimes lows always retreat faster than first modeled.  I think the GFS has the right idea shuffling this off to Buffalo.

A lot of what was Modeled yesterday/and so far today on this potential event a week from now, could be off/wrong, and probably is.

Just like yesterday’s dry air being over modeled Just 12 hours out from this current event on the GFS/modeling...???  
 

Sure you can be right in thinking that...but as you know parts of that upper air depiction is gonna change a dozen times going forward.  Which will change the potential drastically as the days click toward that timeframe. 

[cleetussnow]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GFS:  In general these days I am not as willing to discount it, in lieu of Euro, out of hand ... Seems that was more doable as a tact, oh... five years ago. But, for whatever reason  ( and I'm sure this in no way shape or form shows up in any empirical verification scoring just to because some god of douche thinks it is entertaining to start social media vitriol ! ), it at times does better in the D6-9 time range ... beating out the Euro with sniffed trends. It'll put up a single run sometimes that nails the thing .. Problem is, it summarily has trouble with conviction. It starts going, 'yeah but what if..' usually right around the temporal seam of the mid turning page into short range.  Only to come back when it's 12 hours out and nail it again!  It's probably why the Euro scores better? Now that I think about that; by shear weight of its consistency, alone.  Suppose it is consistently wrong 30% of the time, but the GFS is 100% right on just three cycles out of 10, but is otherwise 40% frustrating... I may be just remembering those early runs that were 100%  

But I'm digressing... I just wanted to say, if the GFS does verify and quasi- cuts that middling low west through Buffalo, it's definitely going to be wrong about the amount of cold boundary layer erosion over interior S and C NE regions it's selling.  There is a "scooter" high - is that right? - up N of Maine, retreating N, not E... and slow enough N to impart ageostrophic drain and ice (most likely) almost down to the S. Coast. That will never never never never never erode out as liberally as the GFS, given those antecedent synoptic parameters and their subsequent evolution...not by experience .. not by climate.  The model is unwittingly signaling a short duration icing event.  'Sides, the ptype products indicate ice does fight some, so it's most likely a llv resolution thing. 

ECM: It's been more consistently E of the GFS comparing the last several cycles.  And, as a testament to the consistency mentioned above...it's also had good run to run continuity. I actually like this run better than the GFS, despite the reality that once in a while it detects early ideas quicker, based upon climate of storm tracks alone. The next in succession tends to be more E of the predecessor.  Not always... Times of intense retrograde atmospheres, those present exceptions.  But this is that... The system this weekend is also east of this last one ... just doesn't have any cold air.  In fact, the models are starting to commit more so to coastal low.. 

Unrelated to next week:  I'm noticing a deep range GFS and ensemble member tendency therein, to stall lows around NE and have them resume a motion anomalously ESE into the Atlantic. I've noticed in the past, that can at times presage a -NAO eruption.  It's almost like there is a scaffold in the physics et al that supports the NAO, but the the models have yet to 'fill it in' and build one in the form of blocking.  Even the Euro ..D 8-10...has a tendency to pearl SPV's from the NW of Canada to the mid Maritimes SW of the D. Straight, yet... seems interestingly too low with the geopotential medium over the D. Straight its self/Greenland. Those regions seem prone to collect some atmospheric depth.. So, may be something to watch for.  

Nice post.  I sort of think of the GFS behavior as kind of a "what can go wrong" early warning.  The Euro and Ukie (because I now am conditioning myself to weight the UKIE heavier when possible) tend to have a higher conviction with things, and only adjust closer to onset.  The GFS rattles the human susceptibility to Type 1 errors.  Around here its a particular bias.  not judging...I am terribley biased cold.

PS I don't follow DT much, but he used to always throw in the 'what can go wrong' missives in his forecasts, which I think is very helpful and educational and smooths biases.  

[ORH_wxman]

So far at 12z....GFS still western outlier with a lakes track though prob some CAD on that, 12z Ukie is fish food well suppressed, and 12z GGEM is a pretty wintry event with snow and prob some sleet in there too....hitting most of New England with something. Pending 12z euro      .

Still 6 days out so this is mostly fodder. But this threat has been on guidance for several days already pretty consistently. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

So far at 12z....GFS still western outlier with a lakes track though prob some CAD on that, 12z Ukie is fish food well suppressed, and 12z GGEM is a pretty wintry event with snow and prob some sleet in there too....hitting most of New England with something. Pending 12z euro      .

Still 6 days out so this is mostly fodder. But this threat has been on guidance for several days already pretty consistently. 

A lot hinges upon the preceding system.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

A lot hinges upon the preceding system.

That keeps tickling East so it’s now a weak secondary

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah that GGEMer has very few peers in the -what-one-want's as a winter enthusiast, department.. heh. 

That's like 18 straight hours of moderate wind-whipped shattering aggregates and cob-webbing off roof eaves in that solution. Hot cocoa storm.  Probably 12 to 18" solid 50 miles either side of a line from NE PA to EWR to HFD to BED...  It even has an interesting IP band near Willamic to Logan-esque line...but mmm given the antecedent synoptic players and their specifics, GGEM's BL warm bias is quite likely in play there. That's probably more snow farther S in that total ordeal.  

THAT event proooobably doesn't suffer the same fate as the bigger snow from last week, where immediately ensuing there is some fantastic snow bobbling monster.  I agree on the Euro whomever mentioned... as I was saying, it's demoed good continuity thus far so it's interesting if that does so again.  

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That keeps tickling East so it’s now a weak secondary

Not really. 12z Euro rips W of us with a 990mb low over ALY and down to 972 N of ME 12 hrs later.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Not really. 12z Euro rips W of us with a 990mb low over ALY and down to 972 N of ME 12 hrs later.

965mb.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

965mb.

Damn. 960mb now

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

965mb.

That is a KU for someone with that rate of deepening .. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a KU for someone with that rate of deepening .. 

Moose in Quebec

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is a KU for someone with that rate of deepening .. 

Congrats Moncton

[CoastalWx]

Weak sauce on the euro, but goes south of us. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Moose in Quebec

I expect precip type issues, but important take away here is that its explosive..

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Weak sauce on the euro, but goes south of us. 

Huh? Haven't seen it, but accounts vary..jesus lol

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I am on mobile so can’t model watch right now but what type of rain amounts are we talking about this weekend? Hopefully not torrential?

[Baroclinic Zone]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weak sauce on the euro, but goes south of us. 

This is why I feel we want the preceding system to blow up.  Helps build the confluence N of us.