December 2019 Discussion

[Sugarloaf1989]

20 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

what is the earliest in a winter killington or mt. snow had to shut it down?

Never and Superstar has 10-15' of water injected ice base. A two day mild up isn't going to melt much of that.

[dryslot]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

ehh this is beyond a melt. And I also want to add it's not directed towards anyone here...it's moreso social media...and IMO that's a problem and it's a problem that is only going to worsen. It's a problem b/c probability the majority of people out there receive their weather info from social media...and there is so much garbage going around, so much contradiction, that people are legit confused...and I hear it all the time. People really have zero clue who to trust anymore for weather information...one of the biggest contributors here is hype.

I agree, Its out of control and won't get any better, Lot of fake news on social media that folks that are naive fall for it, Some of the news media outlets are to blame too as they look to boost ratings.

[Snowcrazed71]

Lol.. I love Coming on here, but, there's a bunch of whiny Mofos here..lolol. You guys just cant enjoy the weather as it comes? Complaining it's not fair..or the winter is done, or, it's warm with rain..and cold and dry. I'm guessing you've never really experienced something that deserves complaining. Get a grip people. We are here to discuss weather events. Oh, and for the last time whiners....... It is December 8th....8TH!!!! We have already experienced some great snow events. Ok..back to the our regular scheduled program!

[weatherwiz]

Just now, dryslot said:

I agree, Its out of control and won't get any better, Lot of fake news on social media that folks that are naive fall for it, Some of the news media outlets are to blame too as they look to boost ratings.

Bingo! 

Also to your middle part...that is spot on too...I mean you can't put the total blame on the source providing the information...people time in and time out continue to fall for the hype...so sometimes people are there own worse enemy. 

For example, there is this ridiculous facebook group in CT...don't know what it's called but they have thousands, and thousands of followers...they do nothing but hype. People fall for it...get all pissed off...and blame meteorologists...but these same people CONTINUE to go to the same source for information. 

Kevin is 100% right when he says people love hype. People may say they don't but at the end of the day (for some psychological reason) people are easily sucked into hype. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I didn’t look that deep, but it looks like your classic CAA with drying and subsidence at that level. Sometimes you can offset that if you can get big lift above it, but in general not a great thing to have NW winds at 850 when trying to snow. Not impossible though. 
btw, message me your question you had the other day.

Where do you want the winds from at 850...NE?

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Where do you want the winds from at 850...NE?

Easterly component is preferred. Can still get WAA but not torch from those directions, or it's pure CCB. S, SW are too warm for all snow typically, and W/NW downslopes across much the region (powderfreak will keep his fake snow though). 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Easterly component is preferred. Can still get WAA but not torch from those directions, or it's pure CCB. S, SW are too warm for all snow typically, and NW downslopes across much the region (powderfreak will keep his fake snow though). 

Yessir

[moneypitmike]

32 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Why is it these setups always, always, always get hyped up? Is it because snow maps go crazy or models blow up QPF? 99.99999% of the time the cold air always lags behind the cold front in this part of the country. Obviously across northern New England things can be a little different but we see time after time...models "go crazy" within this time range and once we get inside 36-42 hours...boom it goes to shit then we have to hear all the crying about how models were wrong. If these events panned out...even half the time, every one of us would probably average another 30'' of snow per year.

Because we're all

[Lava Rock]

Nice epic rainer next weekend. Too bad there is no cold anywhere in New England.

Winter's ovah

[Lava Rock]

Lol.. I love Coming on here, but, there's a bunch of whiny Mofos here..lolol. You guys just cant enjoy the weather as it comes? Complaining it's not fair..or the winter is done, or, it's warm with rain..and cold and dry. I'm guessing you've never really experienced something that deserves complaining. Get a grip people. We are here to discuss weather events. Oh, and for the last time whiners....... It is December 8th....8TH!!!! We have already experienced some great snow events. Ok..back to the our regular scheduled program!

I'm pretty good at complaining

[J.Spin]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Those maps have basically become the front of winter forecasting. A snow map starts spitting out 3-6''...6-10''...30"+...its sound the alarms...major winter storm threat...it doesn't matter what any other piece of guidance looks like. A snow map has it so it's legit. IMO, winter forecasting is going to continue to go downhill faster than an Olympic skier over the next few years and it's b/c the widespread use of these products to highlight winter threats just outweigh analysis done which incorporate a wide variety of products/knowledge. 

It’s not as if it really going to change any actual winter forecasting though; the pros at the NWS don’t spew out those snow maps; even TWC doesn’t throw them out there – they generate their own consensus projection maps.  The people who I generally see putting those maps out there are weenies and Twitter “mets”, who are essentially on the scene for fun and entertainment vs. having any actual professional responsibility with respect to forecasting.

[Nikoss427]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Bingo! 

Also to your middle part...that is spot on too...I mean you can't put the total blame on the source providing the information...people time in and time out continue to fall for the hype...so sometimes people are there own worse enemy. 

For example, there is this ridiculous facebook group in CT...don't know what it's called but they have thousands, and thousands of followers...they do nothing but hype. People fall for it...get all pissed off...and blame meteorologists...but these same people CONTINUE to go to the same source for information. 

Kevin is 100% right when he says people love hype. People may say they don't but at the end of the day (for some psychological reason) people are easily sucked into hype. 

I literally had this argument an hour ago with one of my coworkers dying for any opportunity for a snow day. They go on Facebook and get a snowmap from a weather group and post it in a group text saying we're not having school 4 days out. I finally responded saying the claim is bogus and the response is, "well they're usually accurate." With no actual substance to back the statement up. This is a science teacher mind you... Rant over. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

It’s not as if it really going to change any actual winter forecasting though; the pros at the NWS don’t spew out those snow maps; even TWC doesn’t throw them out there – they generate their own consensus projection maps.  The people who I generally see putting those maps out there are weenies and Twitter “mets”, who are essentially on the scene for fun and entertainment vs. having any actual professional responsibility with respect to forecasting.

I get the idea that TWC does use snow maps but obviously are presented differently...I could be wrong on that though. 

Anyways...that's exactly what I mean! It's the twitter weenies using them and b/c there are so many of them they just dominate.

10 minutes ago, Nikoss427 said:

I literally had this argument an hour ago with one of my coworkers dying for any opportunity for a snow day. They go on Facebook and get a snowmap from a weather group and post it in a group text saying we're not having school 4 days out. I finally responded saying the claim is bogus and the response is, "well they're usually accurate." With no actual substance to back the statement up. This is a science teacher mind you... Rant over. 

 

What I also can't stand is when you see the people (I've seen this on TV too...not around here but from youtube videos) who will post a model output...and then say, "But this solution has zero chance of happening or it's extremely unlikely"...THEN WHY EVE POST IT OR MENTION IT??? 

A huge example of that was this one event last winter...I think it was the one where we had the ice event here in central CT. Where model snow maps were showing 20-30''...people would post them...I think even one of the local news stations did (not Ryan's station) and it was either the GFS or Euro showing 20-30'''they said, something along the lines of this is what one of our forecast models are showing but thankfully it likely won't happen...WTF is the point of mentioning it then? Just why? There is no logical reason to justify showing it or mentioning it. All people are going to do is see the 20-30'' and freak out...and that's exactly what happened 

[HoarfrostHubb]

BOX point n click for my hood has 1-3” then 2-4” after the rain

[Damage In Tolland]

Box has 3-6” inland and 1-3” towards coast. 3-6/4-8” event coming 

[Damage In Tolland]

ECMWF Ensemble members indicating snow for Tuesday
night into Wednesday than 24 hours ago, with ensemble probabilities
for 3" or more of snow in the 24-hour period 18z Tue - 18z Wed now
up to 50% across western MA/western Hartford County, the hills in
central MA and Tolland County eastward into the northern Providence
suburbs. Recent trends in the GFS have also trended snowier in this
period. Global models show anomalously strong mid and upper level
jets (~ 100 kts at 500 mb, 150 kts at 250 mb, with Southern New
England positioned in the favorable equatorward entrance region of
each jet), and there are hints in the guidance at some bands (axis
of 850 mb -EPV, some though unfocused FGen @ 850) during the
overnight hrs.

[Ginx snewx]

This is Wizs second snow map rant this season,  let's hope we have 15 to 20 of these. They work out well.

[HoarfrostHubb]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is Wizs second snow map rant this season,  let's hope we have 15 to 20 of these. They work out well.

Fugly

[Go Kart Mozart]

Forget it Wiz, SWCT ruling the Jadeveons tonight.  Keep em coming!

[MJO812]

What an active December this is turning out to be. The warm calls right now are going to fail.

[wxeyeNH]

22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

BOX point n click for my hood has 1-3” then 2-4” after the rain

Whatever happens everything I see is well SE of me.  To the north, upslope will re coat anything that melts but I might be in the no man's zone with bare ground.  I'm hoping the upcoming rain will remove salt from the road.  

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What an active December this is turning out to be. The warm calls right now are going to fail.

Lot of time left 

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Lot of time left 

Dr. Dews???

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lot of time left 

Gibbs?

[CoastalWx]

Just saying. Although it looks more doubtful. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Boy we ride the line as we approach Christmas on the ensemble. It’s not 2011, but it needs a little help. The irony is that it may be cold enough to support a few wintry deals. It’s close.

How was 2011

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

How was 2011

Way uglier. Big black hole by AK down to west coast. 

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice stretching of the 5H vorticity now even on the GFS which had left behind consolidated energy earlier. This stretching induces lift along a long axis well into cold air. At this early stage I would expect a 3 to 6 snow with the potential for more for the majority of SNE. Some SE coastal areas may be warm at the surface for a while to slow accumulations. Fine tune as time dwindles. 

No change tonight in my thoughts.

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No change tonight in my thoughts.

6-10?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

What an active December this is turning out to be. The warm calls right now are going to fail.

That was a very wintry gfs op run. If only...