MJO812 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 A little snow for SNE on the icon and gfs for friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 2:46 AM, Dr. Dews said: there are going to be some heavy meltdowns in the coming weeks, esp. NYC south. Panic room will be rockin Expand I'm not seeing an epic pattern either. Looks like a lot of cutters with some transient though potentially strong cold shots. Could see a SWFE depending on the Arctic supply and how strong the -EPO/+PNA pattern is. Suspect there'll be a lot of model volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 5:00 AM, SnoSki14 said: I'm not seeing an epic pattern either. Looks like a lot of cutters with some transient though potentially strong cold shots. Could see a SWFE depending on the Arctic supply and how strong the -EPO/+PNA pattern is. Suspect there'll be a lot of model volatility. Expand I suspect there will be volatility in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 5:00 AM, SnoSki14 said: I'm not seeing an epic pattern either. Looks like a lot of cutters with some transient though potentially strong cold shots. Could see a SWFE depending on the Arctic supply and how strong the -EPO/+PNA pattern is. Suspect there'll be a lot of model volatility. Expand Who called the coming pattern epic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 Euro, ggem D10 are pretty similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 8:09 AM, Dr. Dews said: Euro, ggem D10 are pretty similar Expand Once I saw you had posted, I knew what to expect and wasn't dissapointed. Lol No need to check guidance or view the images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 4, 2019 Author Share Posted December 4, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 3:32 AM, Ginx snewx said: May they rest in peace Expand Miss those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 3:32 AM, Ginx snewx said: May they rest in peace Expand Some serious ice damming on that roof from poor or no attic insulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 10:19 AM, BrianW said: Some serious ice damming on that roof from poor or no attic insulation. Expand Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Looks like a cutter pattern next 2 weeks with highs exiting east and Se of us and the return flow combining w approaching short waves bringing rains to Maine’s. Cold and dry after the systems. Hopefully toward the end of this period we can score ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 10:47 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks like a cutter pattern next 2 weeks with highs exiting east and Se of us and the return flow combining w approaching short waves bringing rains to Maine’s. Cold and dry after the systems. Hopefully toward the end of this period we can score ! Expand Yesterday the models showed a really good pattern after next week. Proceed with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Get the warmth out of the way then reload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 3:32 AM, Ginx snewx said: May they rest in peace Expand Who leaves snow piled on the steps next to the door like that? Is this amateur hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 9:18 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Miss those Expand Looks a little like the Matterhorn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 2:04 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'd like to pile it on while we can, end of next week looks good to me. A moderate relaxation probably coming late month, maybe go a little more zonal? We joke about Grinch storms but I can see it happening.I expect a Grinch storm. Seems to happen almost every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Dews never posts ensemble products in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 10:38 AM, Damage In Tolland said: Meh Expand Should we tell them that was Feb 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 3:32 AM, Ginx snewx said: May they rest in peace Expand I've always wondered how many cans of AquaNet those banks took? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 12:55 PM, Ginx snewx said: Should we tell them that was Feb 15 Expand I guessed Jan 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 8:33 AM, Dr. Dews said: Expand Transient warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Euro has the MJO stalling in 2 and going into the COD. Not a warm pattern at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 8:09 AM, Dr. Dews said: Euro, ggem D10 are pretty similar Expand Using the Euro and Gem in the the same post should be ban worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 8:33 AM, Dr. Dews said: Expand Hr 240 Op map??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 3:24 PM, dryslot said: Using the Euro and Gem in the the same post should be ban worthy. Expand 100% AGREED. And he uses a 10 day OP map. If that ain’t Trolling...I don’t know what is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 3:29 PM, WinterWolf said: 100% AGREED. And he uses a 10 day OP map. If that ain’t Trolling...I don’t know what is? Expand I think he makes his own model maps in his basement...…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 2:42 PM, Snow88 said: Euro has the MJO stalling in 2 and going into the COD. Not a warm pattern at all. .... Expand It's not a cold pattern, either, to be fair. In fact, that's probably better interpreted as 'n/s,' as it is said, or no skill. Code for pointless.. It's weak only in phase 2 with not that much time for momentum exertion to begin with. That alone means it is unlikely exerting much if any forcing on the pattern... and that is definitely even more so, true, as it collapses into that COD region as you noted. The other aspect about the MJO that I guarantee you, the consensus of the greater Met community ambit is not considering: the Hadley Cell is unusually expanded associated with the background GW signal. This is not supposition or speculation; it is empirically noted and papered. But, .. what that means is that it has expanded in latitude, N and S of the tropics into and farther beyond the subtropics... where it amorphously bounderies with the lower Ferrel Cell ( middle ) laitudes in some cases. This changes the planetary mechanics of how the MJO ...and ENSO for that matter, can effective force on the Global circulation - as it pertains to R-waves distribution... A little pricey in words there ..the simple way to say is, the correlations are changing. They have to. That's logic. If a static characteristic of a-b-c source --> teleconnects to x-y-z at a separate location, what happens when the a, b, or c sources is/are no longer static? Yet, from official forecast offices, to seasonal forecasting efforts by ignored and cute enthusiasts of social media and back, there's rarely a turn of phrase conveying much awareness or perhaps even "respect" for that chain of reasoning. But I'm digressing a bit here ... Point is, a feeble wave signature trundling briefly up into lower wave strength range in one phase, only to drowned in the COD, when on-goign, background din of the Global maelstrom makes that like a vesper in the quasar of a black hole, mmm that pretty much means that it is utterly nothing ... most likely Nothing is ideally deterministic in this game, but that's the money line there. CDC's just come back on line with it's teleconnectors... It's the EPO source I typically use... I'm sure the Euro and perhaps the GGEM and UKMET folk put their own variations, and if you pay for them, they'll give the mass fields with a deep and caring proctological examination for an equally handsome pretty sore-butt price. Which I'm not willing to pay for those informatica. The EPO at CDC has a spike in the PNA but ... when the EPO is neggie like that, and then tries to flip positive, that suggests that the flow down stream over North America should actually stretch west to east some in time. Yet, we see the operational runs dealing reverses on that clad advise given yesterday. I wouldn't give up on that though. It may work out with endless cutters.. It may - hence the 'nothing is ideally determinable' in this game. But, I "think" the models are too 'diggy' out west for these last couple of cycles. This did this before this snow storm too... We went through a big warm up signal a couple weeks ago and it really didn't work out too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 10:47 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Looks like a cutter pattern next 2 weeks with highs exiting east and Se of us and the return flow combining w approaching short waves bringing rains to Maine’s. Cold and dry after the systems. Hopefully toward the end of this period we can score ! Expand 06z GFS op shows Augusta with RA and 60° at 00z on the 11th. Blecchh! GFS is infamous for showing cutters (or blizzards) at 10 days out and beyond, and which then disappear, but the mess for 10th-11th has been there for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Nam and gfs ‘improved” the clipper. It’s flakes in the air, if that’s your bag. @40/70 Benchmark is likely itching to make a lengthy blog for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 On 12/4/2019 at 4:34 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nam and gfs ‘improved” the clipper. It’s flakes in the air, if that’s your bag. @40/70 Benchmark is likely itching to make a lengthy blog for it. Expand Yea...I'll get riiight on that- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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