Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 56 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I only asked you twice lol. Thanks bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Cold, and 6Z EPS is colder and longer duration. Its the blockbuster that wasn't supposed to be on the table. Raindancewx will claim victory when Logan comes in with 2 while Jerry reports 8 mutthafukas. Lol Happy Turkey day turkies 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 34 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Yesterday flirting with the warmth, today flirting with the northern edge. Maybe it’ll settle out in the middle You shouldn't worry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Cold, and 6Z EPS is colder and longer duration. Its the blockbuster that wasn't supposed to be on the table. Raindancewx will claim victory when Logan comes in with 2 while Jerry reports 8 mutthafukas. Lol Happy Turkey day turkies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 52 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You shouldn't worry Have you heard of Jewish angst? We always think the worst could happen. History has often proved us correct... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, it isn't. However as is on the EURO, I am good. Let me know when you are in the area, dude. All depends on if you live on the East or west side of Methuen. The ocean plays more of a role on the east side of Methuen than it does on the west side of the city. I live on the east side of Methuen. There have been numerous times when there is snow/mix on the west side and by the time I arrived home it is raining. The junction of 93 and 213 is a transition zone for the most part. The area closer to Pelham/Dracut is the best area in Methuen to have less of an effect from the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: I only asked you twice lol. Thanks bro Oh sorry. Lol. I must've missed those posts. I woulda posted it if I saw them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 10 hours ago, raindancewx said: I've got 3.5" with the current storm over New Mexico as of 20 minutes ago at my place. Airport is around an inch, but the heaviest snow should come in over the next six hours. We're negatively correlated to snow in the coastal NE in El Nino years, and only average about 10". Obviously 3.5" isn't 10" - but the odds are 6/10 here for an above average Oct-May when November sees accumulating snow. Philadelphia correlation (r-squared) in 28 El Ninos through 2018-19 is close to 0.3 with El Nino snow in Albuquerque. Not as strong for Boston/NYC/Baltimore/DC, but it's not real weak either. I'm up to eight inches now. Airport is about 0.40" that fell as snow, likely well over four inches now, maybe five or more already. Oct-May average is 9.6". Would be very hard to not have a snowier than average total in Albuquerque. This isn't really early for snow here, it's about an average date for first snow, just a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, raindancewx said: I'm up to eight inches now. Airport is about 0.40" that fell as snow, likely well over four inches now, maybe five or more already. Oct-May average is 9.6". Would be very hard to not have a snowier than average total in Albuquerque. This isn't really early for snow here, it's about an average date for first snow, just a lot. Glad you’re running ahead. Do you realize this is the New England forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 hours ago, dryslot said: Today wasn't going to be much of anything for us, Too warm when the best lift was here last night, Some backside snow showers coming thru now but won't amount to anything other then a coating possibly. jeff, where's the link to reported snowfall from here. I can never seem to find it. https://www.weather.gov/gyx/ thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Glad you’re running ahead. Do you realize this is the New England forum? Yes. I keep saying it, in El Ninos, we're strongly negatively correlated. If I get to my seasonal total in an El Nino, it's very rare for the Boston to DC corridor to all hit theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 32 minutes ago, raindancewx said: Yes. I keep saying it, in El Ninos, we're strongly negatively correlated. If I get to my seasonal total in an El Nino, it's very rare for the Boston to DC corridor to all hit theirs. Very rare? What is your sample size? You can say very rare on a limited sample size but small sample sizes are not at all predictive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 35 minutes ago, raindancewx said: Yes. I keep saying it, in El Ninos, we're strongly negatively correlated. If I get to my seasonal total in an El Nino, it's very rare for the Boston to DC corridor to all hit theirs. Cept where has any Govt agency declared El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 51 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: jeff, where's the link to reported snowfall from here. I can never seem to find it. https://www.weather.gov/gyx/ thanks. Hey this is better https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 I use all the El Ninos since 1930 - close to 30 now. It's not that small. The weeklies have been over +0.5C for two months now, each week. The government declaring an El Nino is always a lagging indicator. The Jamstec news blurb has been calling this an El Nino Modoki for months, if you really want some kind of official statement, as if it matters. The SOI is going to be around -9 for the past 90 days too, which basically doesn't happen in non-El Ninos. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html These are your drivers - ENSO forecast: As predicted earlier, the El Niño Modoki-like state is observed now. The SINTEX-F predicts the El Niño Modoki-like state will persist at least until early winter. We need to be careful of its impact, as it may be different from that of the canonical El Niño. Then, the model predicts that the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral-state from late winter through year 2020. Indian Ocean forecast: The positive Indian Ocean Dipole is now fully established reaching a level similar to that of the extremely strong events of 1994 and 1997. The model predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will persist in late autumn, and then decay in winter. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki-like state in autumn and winter; this is as we observed in 1994 and 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, raindancewx said: I use all the El Ninos since 1930 - close to 30 now. It's not that small. The weeklies have been over +0.5C for two months now, each week. The government declaring an El Nino is always a lagging indicator. The Jamstec news blurb has been calling this an El Nino Modoki for months, if you really want some kind of official statement, as if it matters. The SOI is going to be around -9 for the past 90 days too, which basically doesn't happen in non-El Ninos. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html These are your drivers - ENSO forecast: As predicted earlier, the El Niño Modoki-like state is observed now. The SINTEX-F predicts the El Niño Modoki-like state will persist at least until early winter. We need to be careful of its impact, as it may be different from that of the canonical El Niño. Then, the model predicts that the tropical Pacific will return to a neutral-state from late winter through year 2020. Indian Ocean forecast: The positive Indian Ocean Dipole is now fully established reaching a level similar to that of the extremely strong events of 1994 and 1997. The model predicts that the positive Indian Ocean Dipole will persist in late autumn, and then decay in winter. We may observe co-occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki-like state in autumn and winter; this is as we observed in 1994 and 2018. Lol....you wouldn’t medicine you take at some point to have been declared safe and efficacious on a sample size of 30. That’s a minuscule sample in science and the reason why so many wx assumptions can’t hold up. In my world I’m used to sample sizes in the tens of thousands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 You guys make assumptions all the time about the NAO, PNA, EPO, WPO, etc being in the correct phase when only 30 years in a given phase exist. Bit inconsistent there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: Have you heard of Jewish angst? We always think the worst could happen. History has often proved us correct... Passed down from generation to generation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 18 minutes ago, raindancewx said: You guys make assumptions all the time about the NAO, PNA, EPO, WPO, etc being in the correct phase when only 30 years in a given phase exist. Bit inconsistent there? Who makes these assumptions? We know beyond short term the Atlantic side is voodoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Hey this is better https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.htmlThanks. Some 12" reports in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/26/2019 at 6:28 AM, jbenedet said: If not for late November/very early December climo I think we’d all already be saying “congrats philly, ACY or maybe even DC” for the December 1st potential. A Cut-off running into a monster Greenland block screams suppression to me. I’m thinking a climo compromise is in order, so at this point I wouldn’t at all be surprised if NNE is cold and dry and the bulk of the event is in the Northern Mid Atlantic. Just my first low confidence guess... In short, I think the trend on the GFS is real—it will persist—and should be taken seriously... The Yoda of the forum. Is there any possibility of you running the model in your head twice a day?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Pretty sweet eps run in the long range today. Happy thanksgiving! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 5 hours ago, weathafella said: Who makes these assumptions? We know beyond short term the Atlantic side is voodoo. So is the IOD. Unless you live in Australia. Many assumptions made that have alternative explanations. I have not seen anything that indicates the atmosphere is in an El Nino state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 hours ago, weathafella said: Pretty sweet eps run in the long range today. Happy thanksgiving! Happy Thanksgiving Jerry and to all! Let's hope this storm spreads the riches to as many as possible here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I thought The EPS wasn't the best looking last night. It's not a torch, but the Pacific seems to want to flop around and we'll probably be prone to mild spells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 19 hours ago, weathafella said: Lol....you wouldn’t medicine you take at some point to have been declared safe and efficacious on a sample size of 30. That’s a minuscule sample in science and the reason why so many wx assumptions can’t hold up. In my world I’m used to sample sizes in the tens of thousands... And if mets need the sample sizes required of medical testing, we're about 10,000 years or so from having anything useful. Yes. I keep saying it, in El Ninos, we're strongly negatively correlated. If I get to my seasonal total in an El Nino, it's very rare for the Boston to DC corridor to all hit theirs. Haven't looked at DC-BOS, but in my neighborhood the data shows that weak ENSO is generally good for snow while mod-strong Nino and strong Nina are bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I thought The EPS wasn't the best looking last night. It's not a torch, but the Pacific seems to want to flop around and we'll probably be prone to mild spells. Perhaps we are following last year's script with an early season snowfall followed by a bad period. Fits the MJO progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I thought The EPS wasn't the best looking last night. It's not a torch, but the Pacific seems to want to flop around and we'll probably be prone to mild spells. 12z (what I was referring to yesterday) looked better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Will. What are your thoughts on LR? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Graupler Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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