ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 3:51 PM, MaineJayhawk said: From southern outlier to northern outlier in a span of 24 hours? Can't understand why folks dis that model Expand It's not that shocking actually...yeah, the GFS sucks, but this system is still like 4-5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Guidance doesn’t roll out for another 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 At the surface, Doesn't look much different from 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 3:51 PM, ORH_wxman said: The likes a 100-150 mile shift north with the ULL out in the midwest...from well southwest of ORD to near MKE Expand Jeez and I thought the risk was more of a whiff than a cut. But even out there, can't the block force surface cyclogenesis off of the Jersey coast? And isn't that cut too far nw to fry our mid and upper levels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 3:55 PM, dryslot said: At the surface, Doesn't look much different from 06z. Expand It did correct more eastward late in the run, so it ends up not too different. But there were some noticeable changes earlier in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 It pushed the ULL further SE in the 108-126 timeframe...sort of elongates it more E-W than the 06z run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 3:56 PM, ORH_wxman said: It did correct more eastward late in the run, so it ends up not too different. But there were some noticeable changes earlier in the run. Expand The differences as you said were @H5 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 3:58 PM, dryslot said: The differences as you said were @H5 earlier. Expand I dont' expect guidance to handle this system well as a whole because of how ridiculously big this bowling ball is and trying to deal with the NAO ridge at the same time. Timing of ULL ejection from the Rockies will play a role as well as any of those scooter streaks rotating around the backside of the T-day system that gets blocked a bit by the NAO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Wow gfs is horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 It actually ends up hitting a lot of New England pretty good as it wraps back up when the ULL swings northeast to near ACK....in the 132-144 timeframe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:01 PM, Snow88 said: Wow gfs is horrible Expand We tried to tell’em 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:02 PM, ORH_wxman said: It actually ends up hitting a lot of New England pretty good as it wraps back up when the ULL swings northeast to near ACK....in the 132-144 timeframe. Expand It closes off @H5 over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Could be an all-timer for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:01 PM, Snow88 said: Wow gfs is horrible Expand Yeah when they don't show snow over specific areas should just toss it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:01 PM, Snow88 said: Wow gfs is horrible Expand Make the FV3 great again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:02 PM, ORH_wxman said: It actually ends up hitting a lot of New England pretty good as it wraps back up when the ULL swings northeast to near ACK....in the 132-144 timeframe. Expand It looks exactly like the model I run in my head. 6z, that is...12z isn't out yet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Gfs is 6+ for many. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Late morning flight out of BOS Tuesday morning. While I don't expect things to be bad then, hopefully there won't be any larger system issues causing JetBlue cancelations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:23 PM, weathafella said: Gfs is 6+ for EMA. Expand To be fair... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:31 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: To be fair... Expand AEMATT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:33 PM, dryslot said: AEMATT? Expand I need help with this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:44 PM, JC-CT said: I need help with this one Expand All Eastern MA all the time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:33 PM, dryslot said: AEMATT? Expand I dunno. Just that I looked and thought it would be widespread geographically for ‘many’ when it really was for ‘many’ because of the dense population a certain area has. It’s all good, Jerry is a boss. We’ll get the see the major league model shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 12z GGEM looks like mainly sleet and freezing rain for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:45 PM, dryslot said: All Eastern MA all the time Expand I see. Back to business - how much snow did the GFS show for a random town in northeast CT with a population less than 20k? Also, what do the overall winter 2019-20 predictions produced by some members of this board have for total snowfall in said bumfuch town? Are these predictions for the town center, town average, or a specific location on top of a specific hill that a specific poster lives on? Finally, I just wish my local NBC channel chief meteorologist would talk about this specific town on the air more. Viewers really want to know this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Sugarloaf FTW again on the GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 4:48 PM, TheCloser24 said: 12z GGEM looks like mainly sleet and freezing rain for most of SNE. Expand I thought it was mostly rain but deff cooled the layers from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Ukmet not the best model but it’s cooler than all models right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 On 11/27/2019 at 5:02 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Ukmet not the best model but it’s cooler than all models right now Expand It was exceptionally awful last winter tending to be too flat/cold but that doesn’t mean it’ll be the case this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 maybe I'll get a brief period of sleet,bytch..that's a win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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