Torch Tiger Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 November goes out with a whimper for snow lovers, it's time to discuss December and the wx impacts for the Holiday season. Perhaps a strong storm with a hugger/ coastal transfer to begin the month? Discuss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 53 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: November goes out with a whimper for snow lovers, it's time to discuss December and the wx impacts for the Holiday season. Perhaps a strong storm with a hugger/ coastal transfer to begin the month? Discuss. I dunno, the ground had been covered at my house for over a week and we have a WWA up for tomorrow. Not thinking it’s really been a whimper. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 hours ago, mreaves said: I dunno, the ground had been covered at my house for over a week and we have a WWA up for tomorrow. Not thinking it’s really been a whimper. Agreed, normal November snowfall through the 23rd of the month here is 8.1”, and we’re at roughly double that amount with another potential storm on the doorstep. This is far from a whimpering November – sure we’re behind where we were last year at this time on snowfall, but it’s actually been quite good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 5 hours ago, mreaves said: I dunno, the ground had been covered at my house for over a week and we have a WWA up for tomorrow. Not thinking it’s really been a whimper. Good for NNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Its been a whimper for SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Does it not look like the set up for December 2 will force the low south of us or redevelop it off the coast? Looks like a lot of high-pressure bridging in to Ontario and western Quebec and an old low over the Canadian Maritimes. Would that force it south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 53 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Does it not look like the set up for December 2 will force the low south of us or redevelop it off the coast? Looks like a lot of high-pressure bridging in to Ontario and western Quebec and an old low over the Canadian Maritimes. Would that force it south? The blocking may help, but I’m thinking that it will be a lot of non-crystalline precip around here. That is a hell of a trough out west. My goal has been later in first week of December and beyond for these parts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its been a whimper for SNE. The whole original comment is meant to simply be a troll though. Forum members have routinely been pointing out the reality of SNE November snowfall averages, so the statement is akin to saying, “May through October really went out with a whimper for snow lovers”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 hour ago, J.Spin said: The whole original comment is meant to simply be a troll though. Forum members have routinely been pointing out the reality of SNE November snowfall averages, so the statement is akin to saying, “May through October really went out with a whimper for snow lovers”. Exactly!! ..and then he will pull his usual "who me" routine. Besides him there is only 1 other forum member who considers November to be a winter month for SNE. He's going to spend the entire winter getting his jollies by continually posting when things do not look good for fans of winter weather. The best approach is to have low expectations for the winter. Those who have high hopes for the upcoming winter are going to be constantly annoyed by him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 No doubt there will be changes but shades of last winter on the system around 12/2-3. Mix to rain with best stuff to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 4 hours ago, J.Spin said: The whole original comment is meant to simply be a troll though. Forum members have routinely been pointing out the reality of SNE November snowfall averages, so the statement is akin to saying, “May through October really went out with a whimper for snow lovers”. I understand that, but my climo is a few Inches and I saw merely a few flakes. Relative whimper...especially considering the magnitude of the cold. It is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 The system around the 2nd may be many's first decent snow threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: The system around the 2nd may be many's first decent snow threat. People seem somewhat hesitant to jump on board with that but doesn’t it look like redevelopment will be forced to our south and keep us in the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: People seem somewhat hesitant to jump on board with that but doesn’t it look like redevelopment will be forced to our south and keep us in the cold? The possibility is there as long as there is enough cold air around, Probably the one that follows that one may be better with a better air mass in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Looks like a swfe that often trend colder around 12/2. Pretty weenie run of eps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 5 hours ago, dryslot said: The system around the 2nd may be many's first decent snow threat. Right now, I don't like it for sne. Ridge node over Greenland needs to hang in longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 4 hours ago, mahk_webstah said: People seem somewhat hesitant to jump on board with that but doesn’t it look like redevelopment will be forced to our south and keep us in the cold? You, yea.....questionable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/11/wet-holiday-travel-week-leads-to-onset.html The early December storm depends on how quickly that ridging node over Greenland displaces eastward.....faster will result in further north redevelopment, which is pretty much what I favor. However more reluctance for that to cede ground is more of a sne swfe or even late-bloom redeveloper. I like Maine most for that. Changeable NAO early month should trend positively as the polar stratosphere warms, and the pacific grows more favorable. We need the Pacific to drive especially mid December onward. Thaw later December or early January as meager warm ENSO forcing fades, and Pacific grows more hostile in advance of any sensible impacts from downward propagating polar stratospheric warmth. (December 15 maturation)? I would give the reemergence of any polar blocking until a good 3-4 weeks after that December 15 date to materialize, thereafter we await blocking. December is Pacific driven, with any major coastal snows resulting from transient neg NAO node teaming with favorable Pac between 12/5 and 12/15. However I am more confident in major Archambault potential nearer the end of this period, as maturation of any potential SSW could enhance the MJO in phase 8 on or about December 15th. Thereafter, we trend milder. Pacific deteriorates late December or early January, and then we thaw while hopefully awaiting downward propagation of mid December SSW to take hold mid January. Second half is blocking dependent with more la nina like Pacific. Just my two cents- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Still need to watch 12/1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 This weekend looks icy. Sleet/zr storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This weekend looks icy. Sleet/zr storm? It's early, but I could see that. A SWFE with secondary redevelopment likely near the Cape. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Still need to watch 12/1. I always watch 12/1....from months out.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Man those algorithms as evident by yesterday's event are pretty bad. For shits and giggles are looked at it for next Sunday. While cool at the surface, it's mild 925-850 with temps just above 0C in those levels, yet has snow acc to like KTAN. Tossed. Buyer beware of those algorithms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Does anyone have the 00z UKIE beyond 144? @ 144 itself it seems IMO to have the best setup out of all the models (6z GFS/GEFS def shifted S as well)...@ 144 on the UKIE there is also some energy in Canada that looks like it would dive out ahead of the main ULL, helping with confluence and shifting it Southward potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Still need to watch 12/1. Models are trending further and further south with the coastal transfer. There's a legit 50/50 low in place though spread out & transient but if it ends up stronger then models will continue trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Models are trending further and further south with the coastal transfer. There's a legit 50/50 low in place though spread out & transient but if it ends up stronger then models will continue trending south. I suppose it could, but my gut says a messy storm. Would want to have latitude for that one. Overall the extended has some volatility. The Pacific or Atlantic is not perfect, but it is sufficient for the interior anyways and perhaps the coast. Early December climo is still tough, especially near the Coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 In fact 6z EPS looks more suppressed than 00z out to hr144, but that doesn't mean much this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Maine News Center early look for Tday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Maine News Center early look can you move those amounts about 200-250 miles south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 2 minutes ago, 512high said: can you move those amounts about 200-250 miles south! Sure 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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