December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[jaxjagman]

[jaxjagman]

First time trying this,i'll get better later on GEFS Mean

[Save the itchy algae!]

Can you describe what you saw in your link? It doesn’t work for me lol.

[jaxjagman]

Just now, Save the itchy algae! said:

Can you describe what you saw in your link? It doesn’t work for me lol.

It doesnt play?

[jaxjagman]

5 minutes ago, Save the itchy algae! said:

Can you describe what you saw in your link? It doesn’t work for me lol.

You get it to play,like i said it's a new tool i got, so trying to figure out the do and dont's,but basically it shows a half inch for most and a 1" in the higher elevations

[jaxjagman]

24 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

This work for anyone?

[Save the itchy algae!]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

This work for anyone?

I’ve only tried on my phone and it hasnt worked yet, but I’m also a bad millennial-I’m not savvy with this stuff.  I’ll try on my computer in a bit to see if that’s better for me.

[Kentucky]

21 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

This work for anyone?

plays for me, what are you recording on? windows 10 has screen recording built in the game bar. Win + G shortcut

 

GFS through 84,

CMC and Euro on deck

[jaxjagman]

Just now, Kentucky said:

plays for me, what are you recording on? windows 10 has screen recording built in the game bar. 

 

GFS through 78 btw

Using Google Chrome,"Awesome screen shot".I'll figure it out to have better quality

[jaxjagman]

8 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

 

i thought the quality was fine, just slow down a bit on what you're trying to show, and you'll be good

Thanks for the reply back.My PC died so i'm using my gaming laptop,but this helps,thanks.

[John1122]

36 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

This work for anyone?

Played for me fine. Just zoomed in and could see it well on my phone.  I suspect it's going to be correct. These operational models I feel are overdoing things. If they aren't by some miracle, the western 2/3rds of the area from the Plateau west look golden on the American models.  The GFS and NAM are trying hard to wallop the mid-state and even down into N. Miss.

[John1122]

48 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

You get it to play,like i said it's a new tool i got, so trying to figure out the do and dont's,but basically it shows a half inch for most and a 1" in the higher elevations

Once I looked at it closer and watched a few more timea, it looked like it was showing .5/1 inch totals every few hours for several periods? Looked like parts of mid and West Tennessee would have gotten 1-3 at least there. 

[John1122]

Canadian not as crazy as 12z, but still healthy for most of the Valley, 1-3 over most of the region with a few heavier dollops.  I'd take a blend of operational and hi res models from tonignt and be content. 

[jaxjagman]

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Once I looked at it closer and watched a few more timea, it looked like it was showing .5/1 inch totals every few hours for several periods? Looked like parts of mid and West Tennessee would have gotten 1-3 at least there. 

It's from ACCU that don't account for the actual snow totals of the GEFS,i believe the totals are showing with melting

[John1122]

Hi-res GFS which these hi res models sometimes key too much on terrain and heat islands. But it sure sees the Nashville heat island here. 

[jaxjagman]

10 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Hi-res GFS which these hi res models sometimes key too much on terrain and heat islands. But it sure sees the Nashville heat island here. 

It's going to depend for us how fast the thermals drop catching the long wave through,the EURO 18Z says it will,hate cold air chasing moisture

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 52.7 42.2 03003 62 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 55.1 44.4 44.0 39.9 04004 1 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 44.1 38.8 38.8 37.5 13004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 45.1 38.4 44.6 41.2 17007 0.00 0.00 98 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 57.7 44.6 57.8 44.4 18010 0.00 0.00 71 MON 00Z 09-DEC 59.1 52.7 52.8 44.1 16008 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 09-DEC 54.1 52.5 54.1 49.4 17010 0.01 0.00 100 MON 12Z 09-DEC 55.7 53.7 55.8 53.8 18011 0.02 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 63.2 55.8 63.4 53.9 20014 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 64.2 60.6 61.0 58.6 21010 0.04 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 61.1 59.9 60.2 59.3 23008 0.05 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 60.3 49.3 49.0 48.8 34008 0.16 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 49.0 37.2 37.2 36.4 34007 0.34 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 37.2 33.3 33.3 26.8 35006 0.22 0.09 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 33.3 31.4 31.5 20.3 34006 0.05 0.05 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 31.5 26.0 25.9 16.5 34005 0.00 0.00 0

 

[jaxjagman]

My model only goes out 90 hrs on the Euro  6z and 18z,probably all you need anyways?..lol.Here's TYS 18Z Euro

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TYS LAT= 35.82 LON= -83.98 ELE= 981 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 55.3 41.9 36004 3 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 56.3 45.5 45.5 40.2 06003 5 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 45.5 40.0 40.4 37.6 11003 0.00 0.00 8 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 40.5 38.1 38.6 36.1 12005 0.00 0.00 83 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 55.5 38.6 55.7 41.3 17004 0.00 0.00 68 MON 00Z 09-DEC 57.8 50.3 50.3 38.2 18004 0.00 0.00 99 MON 06Z 09-DEC 50.4 47.5 47.8 44.1 16003 0.03 0.00 100 MON 12Z 09-DEC 49.4 47.2 49.4 47.1 17003 0.06 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 58.5 49.1 58.9 54.0 20009 0.03 0.00 99 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 62.1 58.8 60.1 53.7 21010 0.00 0.00 97 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 61.1 59.6 59.8 56.1 22008 0.01 0.00 99 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 60.0 58.2 58.2 56.5 21006 0.06 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 59.3 51.3 51.1 49.9 36008 0.64 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 51.1 40.7 40.7 40.2 02006 0.46 0.00 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 40.7 34.0 33.9 33.5 00005 0.37 0.09 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 33.9 31.4 31.3 29.1 35005 0.13 0.12 100

 

[jaxjagman]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            18Z DEC07
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 18Z 07-DEC                  56.9    43.7    04003                      2    
SUN 00Z 08-DEC  59.0    47.9    47.7    42.7    05003                     14    
SUN 06Z 08-DEC  47.8    45.4    46.3    40.6    16005   0.00    0.00      29    
SUN 12Z 08-DEC  46.9    44.5    44.6    39.8    16007   0.00    0.00      97    
SUN 18Z 08-DEC  54.8    44.1    54.9    38.8    16009   0.00    0.00      99    
MON 00Z 09-DEC  55.0    50.7    51.3    39.0    16008   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 09-DEC  51.4    48.1    48.5    43.4    16009   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 09-DEC  49.5    48.4    49.5    48.2    17010   0.04    0.00      99    
MON 18Z 09-DEC  58.4    49.5    58.6    56.5    18010   0.04    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 10-DEC  62.4    58.5    60.4    57.4    20008   0.01    0.00      96    
TUE 06Z 10-DEC  61.0    58.9    59.1    56.8    19007   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 12Z 10-DEC  59.1    57.0    57.4    57.3    18005   0.17    0.00     100    
TUE 18Z 10-DEC  60.1    51.4    51.3    49.4    34008   0.65    0.00     100    
WED 00Z 11-DEC  51.6    41.9    41.7    41.5    35008   0.44    0.00     100    
WED 06Z 11-DEC  41.7    34.9    35.0    34.8    00007   0.32    0.04     100    
WED 12Z 11-DEC  35.0    32.1    32.0    29.1    34007   0.07    0.04      80   

[John1122]

7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

It's going to depend for us how fast the thermals drop catching the long wave through,the EURO 18Z says it will,hate cold air chasing moisture

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 18Z DEC07 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) SAT 18Z 07-DEC 52.7 42.2 03003 62 SUN 00Z 08-DEC 55.1 44.4 44.0 39.9 04004 1 SUN 06Z 08-DEC 44.1 38.8 38.8 37.5 13004 0.00 0.00 0 SUN 12Z 08-DEC 45.1 38.4 44.6 41.2 17007 0.00 0.00 98 SUN 18Z 08-DEC 57.7 44.6 57.8 44.4 18010 0.00 0.00 71 MON 00Z 09-DEC 59.1 52.7 52.8 44.1 16008 0.00 0.00 100 MON 06Z 09-DEC 54.1 52.5 54.1 49.4 17010 0.01 0.00 100 MON 12Z 09-DEC 55.7 53.7 55.8 53.8 18011 0.02 0.00 100 MON 18Z 09-DEC 63.2 55.8 63.4 53.9 20014 0.01 0.00 100 TUE 00Z 10-DEC 64.2 60.6 61.0 58.6 21010 0.04 0.00 100 TUE 06Z 10-DEC 61.1 59.9 60.2 59.3 23008 0.05 0.00 100 TUE 12Z 10-DEC 60.3 49.3 49.0 48.8 34008 0.16 0.00 100 TUE 18Z 10-DEC 49.0 37.2 37.2 36.4 34007 0.34 0.00 100 WED 00Z 11-DEC 37.2 33.3 33.3 26.8 35006 0.22 0.09 100 WED 06Z 11-DEC 33.3 31.4 31.5 20.3 34006 0.05 0.05 100 WED 12Z 11-DEC 31.5 26.0 25.9 16.5 34005 0.00 0.00 0

 

You and me both. It used to be fairly common to see rain changing to accumulating snow here but not so much in the last decade or so.  

[jaxjagman]

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

You and me both. It used to be fairly common to see rain changing to accumulating snow here but not so much in the last decade or so.  

I know,but you live in a better enviornment than us

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CSV    LAT=  35.95 LON=  -85.08 ELE=  1880

                                            18Z DEC07
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 18Z 07-DEC                  53.5    39.8    03001                     78    
SUN 00Z 08-DEC  56.1    44.0    43.8    39.5    06004                      4    
SUN 06Z 08-DEC  43.8    41.0    41.3    38.9    15006   0.00    0.00       5    
SUN 12Z 08-DEC  42.9    41.1    42.1    38.8    16008   0.00    0.00      89    
SUN 18Z 08-DEC  53.1    41.7    53.2    39.5    17010   0.00    0.00      23    
MON 00Z 09-DEC  53.7    48.7    49.1    38.1    17010   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 09-DEC  49.8    47.1    47.0    43.0    17011   0.02    0.00     100    
MON 12Z 09-DEC  48.9    46.6    48.6    47.1    18011   0.04    0.00     100    
MON 18Z 09-DEC  56.5    48.6    56.7    53.0    19014   0.01    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 10-DEC  59.5    56.3    57.9    54.4    20010   0.01    0.00     100    
TUE 06Z 10-DEC  58.0    56.8    57.4    56.4    21009   0.04    0.00     100    
TUE 12Z 10-DEC  57.8    55.7    55.6    55.5    25003   0.20    0.00      99    
TUE 18Z 10-DEC  55.9    44.5    44.3    41.9    34009   0.21    0.00     100    
WED 00Z 11-DEC  44.3    34.9    34.8    34.5    35009   0.45    0.01     100    
WED 06Z 11-DEC  34.8    31.0    31.0    27.9    36006   0.27    0.21     100    
WED 12Z 11-DEC  31.0    26.3    26.1    21.5    33005   0.01    0.01      15    

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: TRI    LAT=  36.47 LON=  -82.40 ELE=  1519

                                            18Z DEC07
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 18Z 07-DEC                  51.2    37.5    35002                     24    
SUN 00Z 08-DEC  52.6    41.2    40.9    35.0    05005                     26    
SUN 06Z 08-DEC  41.0    37.4    38.0    35.5    12005   0.00    0.00      13    
SUN 12Z 08-DEC  38.1    35.4    36.0    33.2    12005   0.00    0.00      12    
SUN 18Z 08-DEC  52.7    35.8    53.0    35.7    16006   0.00    0.00      92    
MON 00Z 09-DEC  54.8    44.3    44.3    32.5    14006   0.00    0.00      81    
MON 06Z 09-DEC  46.5    42.7    46.3    37.3    16005   0.01    0.00      99    
MON 12Z 09-DEC  47.9    44.3    47.2    46.8    16006   0.14    0.00     100    
MON 18Z 09-DEC  57.8    47.1    58.1    51.6    19007   0.08    0.00      99    
TUE 00Z 10-DEC  61.6    57.3    57.3    52.4    21006   0.01    0.00      98    
TUE 06Z 10-DEC  57.4    55.0    55.6    52.3    22005   0.02    0.00      99    
TUE 12Z 10-DEC  55.7    53.9    54.2    53.5    19004   0.05    0.00      99    
TUE 18Z 10-DEC  58.2    53.8    55.0    54.8    32007   0.32    0.00     100    
WED 00Z 11-DEC  55.0    43.3    43.1    43.0    35006   0.57    0.00     100    
WED 06Z 11-DEC  43.1    34.7    34.5    34.2    34004   0.32    0.01     100    
WED 12Z 11-DEC  34.5    31.8    31.7    30.1    32004   0.24    0.20     100   

 

[jaxjagman]

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            18Z DEC07
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 18Z 07-DEC                  47.2    41.9    36003                    100    
SUN 00Z 08-DEC  51.6    43.6    43.4    41.6    33003                      0    
SUN 06Z 08-DEC  43.4    38.2    39.1    38.3    10004   0.00    0.00      97    
SUN 12Z 08-DEC  40.2    39.0    40.1    38.8    15004   0.00    0.00       5    
SUN 18Z 08-DEC  61.1    40.1    61.2    50.7    18009   0.00    0.00      81    
MON 00Z 09-DEC  62.7    55.8    55.6    51.3    16006   0.00    0.00      96    
MON 06Z 09-DEC  56.8    55.5    56.2    53.1    18010   0.00    0.00      98    
MON 12Z 09-DEC  56.2    54.9    55.2    50.6    19012   0.00    0.00      99    
MON 18Z 09-DEC  61.1    55.1    61.3    57.2    20015   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 00Z 10-DEC  63.6    61.3    63.3    60.7    21009   0.02    0.00      99    
TUE 06Z 10-DEC  63.4    56.6    56.4    53.4    31007   0.01    0.00      98    
TUE 12Z 10-DEC  56.5    44.7    44.6    42.3    35010   0.15    0.00     100    
TUE 18Z 10-DEC  44.6    37.2    37.1    31.8    00012   0.08    0.00     100    
WED 00Z 11-DEC  37.2    34.7    35.3    22.2    02006   0.08    0.08      99    
WED 06Z 11-DEC  35.6    32.0    31.8    17.7    02006   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 11-DEC  31.8    27.6    27.5    15.8    04004   0.00    0.00       0   

[John1122]

Bullish Euro there for the mid Valley.  Enough model agreement within a short time (less than 3 days now)  to start a thread for it imo, even if it doesn't work out.  

The latest round model blend consensus pretty much gives the Plateau to Western highland rim as its key areas. But at least one of the  models puts about the entire Valley  in play to some extent.  Also doesn't seem overly elevation dependent per the Euro, the heaviest snow in the area falls over both the NW Plateau but also in NW Alabama up through middle Tennessee right into the lower elevations in Nashville. 

 

[jaxjagman]

27 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Bullish Euro there for the mid Valley.  Enough model agreement within a short time (less than 3 days now)  to start a thread for it imo, even if it doesn't work out.  

The latest round model blend consensus pretty much gives the Plateau to Western highland rim as its key areas. But at least one of the  models puts about the entire Valley  in play to some extent.  Also doesn't seem overly elevation dependent per the Euro, the heaviest snow in the area falls over both the NW Plateau but also in NW Alabama up through middle Tennessee right into the lower elevations in Nashville. 

 

I dont know the soundings for the NW RIM other than Paducah,Euro tho keeps showing the colder air getting in faster,not sure i believe it,would be around a inch and a half per inclements 3hrs for BNA

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z DEC08
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC     3/6    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     HR      LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SUN 00Z 08-DEC   7.5     5.2     134    9927    00003                           
SUN 03Z 08-DEC   5.6     4.7     134   10240    11004                           
SUN 06Z 08-DEC   4.2     4.2     134   10207    13004                           
SUN 09Z 08-DEC   6.2     3.6     134   10186    16006           0.00            
SUN 12Z 08-DEC   7.1     3.6     134    9998    17007           0.00            
SUN 15Z 08-DEC  10.8     3.8     134    9927    17008           0.00            
SUN 18Z 08-DEC  14.3     4.6     135   10453    17010           0.00            
SUN 21Z 08-DEC  13.9     6.3     135   10684    17008           0.00            
MON 00Z 09-DEC  12.2     6.9     135   10743    17008           0.01            
MON 03Z 09-DEC  12.0     7.5     135   10544    17009           0.00            
MON 06Z 09-DEC  12.2     8.0     135    9931    17009           0.01            
MON 09Z 09-DEC  12.1     7.9     135    9806    17010           0.01            
MON 12Z 09-DEC  12.9     9.5     136    9718    18011           0.02            
MON 15Z 09-DEC  14.4     9.8     136   10323    19012           0.00            
MON 18Z 09-DEC  17.2    10.3     137   10289    20013           0.00            
MON 21Z 09-DEC  17.1     9.5     137   10510    21010           0.01            
TUE 00Z 10-DEC  15.9    10.6     137   10277    21011           0.05            
TUE 03Z 10-DEC  16.0    10.7     137   10189    21009           0.04            
TUE 06Z 10-DEC  15.7     9.9     137   10471    23008           0.06            
TUE 09Z 10-DEC  13.6     8.4     136   10957    32009           0.05            
TUE 12Z 10-DEC   7.9     6.2     133   10935    34009           0.14            
TUE 15Z 10-DEC   4.1     3.1     131    9804    34009           0.14            
TUE 18Z 10-DEC   2.1     1.3     130    8015    34007           0.26            
TUE 21Z 10-DEC   1.8     0.4     130    4413    00005           0.10            
WED 00Z 11-DEC   0.9    -1.1     129     272    35005           0.17            
WED 03Z 11-DEC   0.7    -1.3     129     207    00005           0.04            
WED 06Z 11-DEC   0.2    -0.7     129     216    35004           0.04            
WED 09Z 11-DEC  -0.9    -0.6     129      37    34005           0.00            
WED 12Z 11-DEC  -3.8    -0.9     129       0    0000

 

[jaxjagman]

Just not to confuse the text above,the total would be around 1.5",nothing more

[John1122]

5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Just not to confuse the text above,the total would be around 1.5",nothing more

The Euro maps are pretty close to that. Looks like it shows 1.5-2 around BNA. Just east and SE of Davidson towards Murfreesboro looks close to 2.5-3. 

[jaxjagman]

The older days you would get excited with the Euro,not sure these days

[jaxjagman]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro maps are pretty close to that. Looks like it shows 1.5-2 around BNA. Just east and SE of Davidson towards Murfreesboro looks close to 2.5-3. 

I'd be happy with a dusting right now

[John1122]

17 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I'd be happy with a dusting right now

I'm pretty happy with it being in the air during December but really would love to see some of the more optimistic scenarios play out like the Canadian. As you mentioned, a few years ago at this range if the Euro put that out OHX would probably be talking winter weather advisories in their am update. Now you have to see the white of the flake practically before you can make a call like that.

[John1122]

• The NAM is namming us all again for the most part with wide spready heavy post frontal snow. The Hi-Res looks like it would follow as well, it's nailing the western valley with heavy snow at the end of it's run with the rain/snow transition approaching Nashville at 60 and snow pouring in Memphis and Clarksville.
•  
• MRX is all out though, mentions anafrontal moisture but says wintry precip won't result in any impacts outside of the Smokies 

[weathertree4u]

19 minutes ago, John1122 said:

• The NAM is namming us all again for the most part with wide spready heavy post frontal snow. The Hi-Res looks like it would follow as well, it's nailing the western valley with heavy snow at the end of it's run with the rain/snow transition approaching Nashville at 60 and snow pouring in Memphis and Clarksville.
•  
• MRX is all out though, mentions anafrontal moisture but says wintry precip won't result in any impacts outside of the Smokies 

maps?