jaxjagman Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Teleconections go south long range,-PNA/+AO/EPO. Seems like a brief warm up possibly around the 18th or so I gave my thoughts on the MJO on the ENSO thread,but this could certainly change. Seasons can be so different for us in the Valley..Unless you have some super storm, someone won't be happy,most of the time it's us in the central and western folks,it's just the way it is. Quite a difference from last winter tho with the MJO.Starting point is Dec3,look how the MJO crept through the warm phases in Jan.,yeah we got cold ever so seldom in winter,more probably thanks to the lose SPV that finally split in late Dec.PV is strong right now and even signs of getting stronger in the next several days. IMHO,get those electric blankets ready,you'll need them soon.Lets hope for a White Christmas,least for some body 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 00z GFS trended a little stronger with the energy trailing along the front into the gulf...CMC joining the GFS with a similar solution for the energy (instead of burying it into Mexico) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 PV is headed back to the NP by the Euro it seems ,have to watch later on what blocking will show for any SSW upcoming.These strong +IOD events back into 1994,1997 never produced a SSWE in winter,nothing but signs right now the SPV will get stronger and not weaker,even tho the QBO is on the decline 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: 00z GFS trended a little stronger with the energy trailing along the front into the gulf...CMC joining the GFS with a similar solution for the energy (instead of burying it into Mexico) The Canadian snow map is pretty, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 0z GFS keeps the snow going on the back side of the Monday/Tuesday system. The GFS spits out 3-5 inches from the Plateau through most of the central sections of the valley, including Nashville. The Canadian is leaning towards the GFS solution as well, just a bit further south and east with the snow shield so the heaviest snow runs from Southern Ark, Northern Miss to the eastern half of the valley, where it's significant. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 7 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: The Canadian snow map is pretty, eh? Lol yeah, I'm just happy starting to get some consensus on the energy...next question is does it continue along the front like the CMC (generates a low of the east coast) or leaves it behind to form the gulf low like the GFS/Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 The Canadian snowmap is similar to quite a few past snow events here. Actually looks like a small scale version of the February 1996 one I wrote about with a similar snow area just south of Memphis with increasing totals as you head towards East Tn/SEKy/SWVA. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Make sure you check your soundings,other than higher elevations this is ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Make sure you check your soundings,other than higher elevations this is ZROn CMC there was ZR sounding for southern middle TN..HR102 on the column is all below freezing across E TN. Haven't checked GFS.Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 0z GFS: low generated central gulf0z Icon: off coast SE GA0z CMC: off Mid Atlantic coast0z NAM (la la land): looks to be headed toward generating toward western gulf 0z Navgem: western gulf Wide range of possibilities still on the tableSent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 18 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: On CMC there was ZR sounding for southern middle TN..HR102 on the column is all below freezing across E TN. Haven't checked GFS. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk SW TO S winds below 950mb is a warm nose,that is ZR,just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: SW TO S winds below 950mb is a warm nose,that is ZR,just saying Sorry put 950,should have been 850,either way you should see the warming at 850,more ZR and freezing fog maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Sorry put 950,should have been 850,either way you should see the warming at 850,more ZR and freezing fog maybe You could just as well look at various maps and see if the soundings are actually correct,thus possibly maybe they are not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Pretty amazing to see how much the whole next 5 - 7 days has changed in modeling over the last 36 hours. 6z GFS is now closer to rain for us all except NW TN and it is more interested in a chunk of energy in the Gulf later on. Also interesting to see how the bigger, second storm, once modeled to come out of the southwest has been pushed east to develop toward the Gulf, over the past several days. I guess it is a symptom of the current wide open Atlantic? Timing becomes everything then, especially this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 I think our chances are much better this season versus recent years to at the least have something to track - thanks for all the information provided on the forum! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Pretty amazing to see how much the whole next 5 - 7 days has changed in modeling over the last 36 hours. 6z GFS is now closer to rain for us all except NW TN and it is more interested in a chunk of energy in the Gulf later on. Also interesting to see how the bigger, second storm, once modeled to come out of the southwest has been pushed east to develop toward the Gulf, over the past several days. I guess it is a symptom of the current wide open Atlantic? Timing becomes everything then, especially this early in the season. I would not honestly put too much stock in what the GFS was portraying at this point. It is a sad representation of our tax dollars at work. The model does well at showing a completely different solution with every run, for that, I give high marks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 It is fun: Member 2 says 93 Jr incoming in 8 days, lol! Even the Euro though, has changed from almost what the NAM is showing this AM, to being more like the GFS was a day ago. Interested to see what the above storm actually turns into. Wonder if we can get at least one OP run that looks like member 2. It might break the weather boards! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Pretty amazing to see how much the whole next 5 - 7 days has changed in modeling over the last 36 hours. 6z GFS is now closer to rain for us all except NW TN and it is more interested in a chunk of energy in the Gulf later on. Also interesting to see how the bigger, second storm, once modeled to come out of the southwest has been pushed east to develop toward the Gulf, over the past several days. I guess it is a symptom of the current wide open Atlantic? Timing becomes everything then, especially this early in the season. One thing I do think the model does well at is portraying the very active pattern we remain in going forward, that was why I had posted earlier that I like our chances going forward that if we can get some cold mixed in here, eventually, someone in the forum area is going to cash in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: It is fun: Member 2 says 93 Jr incoming in 8 days, lol! Even the Euro though, has changed from almost what the NAM is showing this AM, to being more like the GFS was a day ago. Interested to see what the above storm actually turns into. Wonder if we can get at least one OP run that looks like member 2. It might break the weather boards! That would be sweet - just for giggles, what is the snow amounts associated with #2? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Weathertree: a wide range of possibilities on the table, lol: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 To be fair, some of the EPS members show a similar system, just not always timed right for snowfall. I think there will be a big storm somewhere in the east during that time frame. Too many models/ runs have been honking the horn on it. I also think it will come up out of the Gulf, but whether it aims to track right at TN, or the Carolinas and whether it will have any cold air or disturbances timed right to phase, all that is not just up in the air, its at the 850 level right now, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Weathertree: a wide range of possibilities on the table, lol: Looks good, like I said, at least something to track this season, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 7, 2019 Share Posted December 7, 2019 Even though the Euro OP back off the wave riding the front idea, the EPS still like it to an extent. Only the first 30 members have populated at weathermodels, but several of those still have it. Also, a good NAMing this afternoon for that wave to go with my football watching schedule: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Several bonkers solutions. The ggem is just about as good as it gets for the entire Valley footprint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, John1122 said: Several bonkers solutions. The ggem is just about as good as it gets for the entire Valley footprint. No maps? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 1 minute ago, weathertree4u said: No maps? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, John1122 said: Yea lock that in for me north of Nashville, thanks for sharing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: Yea lock that in for me north of Nashville, thanks for sharing I would love to see it come. You're welcome. Don't often even see model runs within 4 days that cover basically the entire Tennessee valley footprint with at least some snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 Just now, John1122 said: I would love to see it come. You're welcome. Don't often even see model runs within 4 days that cover basically the entire Tennessee valley footprint with at least some snow on the ground. True, that is essentially at least an advisory level event for most of the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 8, 2019 Share Posted December 8, 2019 18z Euro has rethought the idea of the frontal wave: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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