Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 12z EPS seems to want a Apps runner for the 13 - 15th storm, but still a ways yet to go: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 I wonder if it is spliting the difference between some Miller As and Bs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 I think right now, there is a storm signal(maybe multiple) after December 10th. Often big storms will precede a cold outbreak. A cutter wouldn't surprise me...but if that cuts, it will deliver bitterly cold air. Then that boundary likely sets the stage for an overrunning event. Best case scenario is a Miller A followed by cold and snow. Worst case is a cutter that drives the boundary to Cuba. I like what I am seeing so far...lots of options on the table. Some are good and some are bad. The Euro also tends to over-amp systems while the GFS is progressive. At this range, just tough to know...but that is a cold, cold set of EPS/GEFS ensembles. I suspect were are nowhere close to this working itself out. Pretty impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I wonder if it is spliting the difference between some Miller As and Bs Crossville EPS...has a sprinkling of everything from Miller As to Cutters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 3, 2019 Share Posted December 3, 2019 There were a lot of blanks and a few heavy hitters on the EPS. For pie in the sky fantasy, member 34 casually dropped about 2 feet on Nashville and 12+ over most of the region. It alone would likely skew the average. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 no science in this post i told my wife to watch the 7th-12th days each month this winter, no reason just a feeling something wintry will happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Pretty interesting to see ridging events appear in the East only to be muted or erased as we draw closer. Looks like we may very well have a significant cold shot right in the middle of what was supposed to be another ridging event. Definitely a trend(ridge going West after being modeled East) to keep an eye on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 12z GEFS again looks cold from about 144 to the end of the run....variability prior to that. The EPS ridge is just massive. Have to think if that verifies, it is going to be much colder than modeled. And there was really not sign of it letting up. As always, have to be careful of a trough getting tucked under that ridge - how many times have I said that? LOL. Again, I think the Nino-ish forcing mechanism will kick it out. As for the Nino, starting to look a bit putrid. This may very well be a true weak El Nino, very weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 58 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z GEFS again looks cold from about 144 to the end of the run....variability prior to that. The EPS ridge is just massive. Have to think if that verifies, it is going to be much colder than modeled. And there was really not sign of it letting up. As always, have to be careful of a trough getting tucked under that ridge - how many times have I said that? LOL. Again, I think the Nino-ish forcing mechanism will kick it out. As for the Nino, starting to look a bit putrid. This may very well be a true weak El Nino, very weak. Maybe, but the moisture stream off the Pacific still looks good. Keep that look consistently and you'd think we have to score eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Temperatures look to trend at or below normal next week (after Mon/Tue) and maybe the following week. The colder shift in the 6-10 day started sneaking in progs a couple days ago. Then the 11-15 day joined in on a second cold front. NWP run-over-run cold gains have stopped, but the pattern looks seasonably cold (or colder) attm. Big AK ridging is a point of strong agreement. Whether the PNA lines up for the Southeast or for the Rockies/Plains remains to be seen. Even the latter would eventually bleed east. The 11-15 day trough looks a little sharper than that of the 6-10 day. The broader 6-10 day might mean less South. The deeper 11-15 day could deliver to lower latitudes, but the PNA will guide trajectory. Texas blue norther fading toward the Southeast, or Midwest hammer direct to Southeast? Tough to know yet. Precipitation is my usual. Probably rain except Plateau and Mountain leftovers. That's progs verbatim. Lots of cutters and post-frontal garbage which won't work out East Tenn. Things could change either direction. Precipitation in the extended.. 16 hours ago, BillT said: no science in this post i told my wife to watch the 7th-12th days each month this winter, no reason just a feeling something wintry will happen That seems to work well in February. Sometimes even January. That Feb. Valentines Day snow is legendary, lol! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 57 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Maybe, but the moisture stream off the Pacific still looks good. Keep that look consistently and you'd think we have to score eventually. Just meaning I wasn't overly impressed with current SSTs or forecasted ones. I think it is good enough to get us through winter...weaker the better in my book as long as we don't dip to a nada. And yes, moisture train looks good for this month at least and prob normalish after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 12z Euro/EPS cooking up something late next week? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z Euro/EPS cooking up something late next week? Sure looks like it. If there was something to hold that (1040+) high in place it would have shown a big winter storm. With the high moving at such a fast speed any winter chances would rely solely on perfect timing. That is usually pretty hard to come by. There does appear to be an open window of opportunity though. Maybe we can luck into something? The southern stream just keeps sending moisture at us...... Also, not that it’s worth talking about day 10+, but the Euro at 12z appears to be setting up for a doozy of a storm just beyond hour 240. Surface reflection in the central gulf and energy and cold diving in to capture it. It’s always fun to imagine the possibilities! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 You know that is one serious damming event when it pushes freezing rain to Birmingham. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: You know that is one serious damming event when it pushes freezing rain to Birmingham. Yeah, and that wedge would not erode as quickly as modeled. Would be a major winter storm in the CAD areas as portrayed. Now is the threat real, who knows? It does make sense to see something like that with what’s going on at 500. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 8 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Yeah, and that wedge would not erode as quickly as modeled. Would be a major winter storm in the CAD areas as portrayed. Now is the threat real, who knows? It does make sense to see something like that with what’s going on at 500. Yeah, just thinking about climo with that specific setup, I'd expect mostly snow/sleet here, the NW upstate and in Tennessee with ice in Bama/GA/Midlands SC. It would probably be a really cold one at the surface too with that 1043 high. I'd expect temps to bottom out in the low 20s with that setup. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 we had cold air daming last night here nw of birmingham....27 for a low and you could see the cold filtering into this area from the NE right along the appalachians 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4, 2019 Share Posted December 4, 2019 Looking at all the individual EPS members for the hr 192 deal, probably the best look for a winter threat this season. Now that may not be saying much, but there seemed to be several solutions that favored a system south of us, or some version of OP. Last night, many looked like cutters, but a nice shift IMO. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Don't know if this had been mentioned yet (probably has) but, DT has his final Winter Outlook out now. Nice write-up. He is going cold/snowy for the Central and Eastern U.S.. Link is on his Twitter "dtvaweatherman". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Can we just lock it in? LUL expect backside flurries by 12z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 You ninja'd me! Looks like there was some glitch that made the GFS double that storm's snowfall/ sleet totals. The GFS map at weathermodels.com is doing the same thing. The Euro control has 3 lows coming out of the Gulf next starting at day 8. Could be worse. Could be in the bullseye at day 8. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: You ninja'd me! Looks like there was some glitch that made the GFS double that storm's snowfall/ sleet totals. The GFS map at weathermodels.com is doing the same thing. snows for like 3 days straight in some areas, so ridiculous I had to post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 For the eye candy, here is EPS member 1: There are several other members that show similars solutions (even the OP and control) with lows coming out of the Gulf, but none show anything as fun or as much snow as the above. I'm not getting my hopes up, but any solution like this would be fun to track just to see lows coming deep out of the Gulf in winter. For posterity and its craziness here is a TN close up of the 6z GFS with the weird snow/sleet glitch: Even with that jacked up glitch there's still a snow hole near Chattanooga, lol. Unbelievable! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 The 500 mb relative vorticity on the Euro OP shows not a double phase, not a triple phase, but a United States phase: An upper low from International Falls to New Orleans. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 1053 high parked over the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 47 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: For the eye candy, here is EPS member 1: There are several other members that show similars solutions (even the OP and control) with lows coming out of the Gulf, but none show anything as fun or as much snow as the above. I'm not getting my hopes up, but any solution like this would be fun to track just to see lows coming deep out of the Gulf in winter. For posterity and its craziness here is a TN close up of the 6z GFS with the weird snow/sleet glitch: Even with that jacked up glitch there's still a snow hole near Chattanooga, lol. Unbelievable! Pivotal does a way better job with its algorithms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Pivotal does a way better job with its algorithms I agree. I just put it up there for the fun of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 I agree. I just put it up there for the fun of it. Lol, same...knew you did, was more for the newer members as a reference. There's a .1% chance of that OP verifying, until I saw the Chatt snowhole...now it's up to 50% lol jk. Would be Jeff's luck.Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 Fair enough, sometimes I forget newer folks might not know to take some of the wilder snow maps with a boulder of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5, 2019 Share Posted December 5, 2019 All three operational (GEM, GFS, GEM) have it is some form or another. The Euro is missing the cold high on this run...had it at 12z yesterday. This is a storm that has been popping up on models suites for a few days if I remember correctly. So, pretty good signal there. Like we had a couple of weeks ago, the strength of that high is important with no blocking out front. If we can get a 1040 hp over the top, lots of wintery precip is possible. A 1050+ high would be crazy. Still a long way to go...just like 30 more runs of the GFS. LOL. I will say that modeling does often pick up big events from decent range. Is this one of those events? I guess time will tell. Looks like EPS/GEFS do have some support for this in terms of mslp placement. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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