John1122 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 A bit of scattered snow on the GFS and Canadian inside 10 days, especially higher elevations. GFS went off the rails in the long range compared to the past few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Waiting on the GEFS MJO forecast. It's been quickly looping into the COD and going back into the COD phase 8. Which is probably why it's been looking so wintry day 8-16. EMOM would basically end winter as it loops the MJO in 5 for the next month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Great run of the 0z EPS last night. The 6z GEFS still has a very strong snow mean and the 6z GFS looks decent with many chances(which are not worked out yet at this range). As for the MJO, its looks on all models has been very inconsistent during the past few days. I went back and read the MJO comments, and the CPC feels like the trend is for low amplitude. That said, we will see where it updates today. The MJO has moved further into phase 7 than originally forecast. So, everything is correcting right now. The EPS has been a day or two ahead of the MJO on the CPC MJO forecast lately. My guess is that it loops back into 7 and 8 after this loop but not before making a quick jaunt int 6. But let's see where the actual MJO is today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 The interesting thing with the MJO is that it moved slightly forward into 7 and gains some amplitude against pretty much every model's guides. One EMON was close. Th other was way off. The other models got smoked. So it begs to question right now whether the MJO forecasts are even close. I suspect a loop occurs. But the Euro is adjusting each day which means it is playing catch-up. I continue to think the MJO actually loops back into 7 and then goes into 8. Just a hunch. There is a lot of subsidence in much of the MJO region to be forecast with some models suggesting 1 and 2 take over. So, that is another option. No matter the loop, the MJO heads for 1 and 2. All of that said, with the MJO all over the place on various models(and I mean all over the place in almost a comical way), interesting times ahead. Basically, the driver for most to the winter....modeling has no idea where it is going. I lean that it is in null or semi-good phases from the next 30 days with maybe a brief jaunt into warmer phases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Also, the 12z GFS has a "kind of" Miller A. Tries to move up the TN Valley and bounces it outside(to steal a football RB term) and up the coast. SLP is down to 988 inside Hatteras. It gets to 954 to the SE of Boston! Still a very big storm signal for that time frame. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 UKMET ins interesting for eastern areas this PM: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I may have jumped the gun with my post irt possible gl blocking setting up. There still is the possibility of somewhat of one as forcing from powerful NE coastal LP's in conjunction with the HB HP will try. However, that strong PV and associated +AO are and will fight tooth and nail. Definitely need a strong SSW to put the kabash on that. It is possible enough forcing from aforementioned players could knock the PV off it's Rocker if it is weakened by a weaker warming event . That thing is so strong, it just deflects everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I think the LR pattern right now is in a state of a flux(but in a good way). It doesn't really look like it is reverting to anything bad(at this point) as it did last Thursday. I think what is in flux is what is going on in Greenland and Alaska. I "suspect", as Boone alluded to, that something is reshuffling at higher latitudes. I was not a fan of what the CMC was doing at d10, but it is d10...so who knows. The 12 GFS looked good. I like the stormy pattern being shown with storms under us and heading up the coast. Cold will be marginal, but it usually is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 The 12z GEFS looks nice. The good think right now is that fluctuations within the model generally still result in cold in the East once we turn the corner into February. My target date for cold is around Feb 5th. The GEFS is earlier. As with the morning's EPS, the GEFS eliminates the AK vortex. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hilton01 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 15 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: @Mr. Kevin There is a conversation about that here (I'm baroowoofr): https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2020-operation-thaw-alaska.663/page-136#post-232967 Sadly, I have had three 10% beers now and am beyond further cogent answers ATT. Also see: Sadly?? Sounds like the perfect way to be! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 The good thing about the 12z GEFS is the cold that spread through Canada after d10. Now, keep in mind the GEFS completely busted on Canada for this week as well as most other ensembles. Remember those pretty pinks moving into the Plains? LOL. Well, they are back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 23, 2020 Author Share Posted January 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: I may have jumped the gun with my post irt possible gl blocking setting up. There still is the possibility of somewhat of one as forcing from powerful NE coastal LP's in conjunction with the HB HP will try. However, that strong PV and associated +AO are and will fight tooth and nail. Definitely need a strong SSW to put the kabash on that. It is possible enough forcing from aforementioned players could knock the PV off it's Rocker if it is weakened by a weaker warming event . That thing is so strong, it just deflects everything. I knew you jinxed us as soon as I read the post, amateurish Daniel. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: I knew you jinxed us as soon as I read the post, amateurish Daniel. Lol OR maybe he just double ninja'd the 12z EPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I am trying hard not to like where the ensembles are heading today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Yum: But as we all know, it is still in that mythical 10+ day time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 @Holston_River_Rambler, can you see the 6hour qpf intervals? Looks like some of that is noise. However, we are on the right side of things for several of those minor events. Something to keep an eye on. @Daniel Boone, some nice trends at high latitudes? You called it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Carvers buddy, you've been on it youself. You definitely know your stuff. We've had so many head fakes and false alarms it about makes us not trust our own experience, insight and ability anymore let alone NWP. Been a tough couple Winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: However, we are on the right side of things for several of those minor events. Indeed: It cut my gif short. Sorry had several other towns in there. Does favor N and E sections though 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 50 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Yum: But as we all know, it is still in that mythical 10+ day time. That is what I envisioned happening when I made post yesterday. I must say I got a bit gunshy 2day and was afraid I jumped the gun regarding Gl blocking. Still am somewhat but, still confident on a better, snowier pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 I just can't buy into it any more regarding the long range. This is been the winter of mythical blocking day 8-16 but it has failed every time. I will hope it's correct this time if for no other reason that it virtually always gets cold 10-15 days after the MJO moves into 7. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, John1122 said: I just can't buy into it any more regarding the long range. This is been the winter of mythical blocking day 8-16 but it has failed every time. I will hope it's correct this time if for no other reason that it virtually always gets cold 10-15 days after the MJO moves into 7. If it were March 23rd, you could bet the house it would verify this time.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, BNAwx said: If it were March 23rd, you could bet the house it would verify this time.. No kidding. I could probably go back and look at the last two winters and days with snow actually falling and see that March and April had more days of it than January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Decembers have warmed and Marches have cooled. Saw something on that recently regarding the last decade, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Moose Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Indeed: It cut my gif short. Sorry had several other towns in there. Does favor N and E sections though Hey Holston_River_Rambler, can you post a link to that data or is it located on a pay service? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 2 hours ago, John1122 said: I just can't buy into it any more regarding the long range. This is been the winter of mythical blocking day 8-16 but it has failed every time. I will hope it's correct this time if for no other reason that it virtually always gets cold 10-15 days after the MJO moves into 7. I am right there with you; seems like it is always out in the long range, then when we get to that period in the long range, it turns out to be rain; so, for me, I appreciate all the time everyone spends digging into the data but just seems like it is always changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 24 minutes ago, The_Moose said: Hey Holston_River_Rambler, can you post a link to that data or is it located on a pay service? Pay site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 24, 2020 Author Share Posted January 24, 2020 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: OR maybe he just double ninja'd the 12z EPS. I was just giving him a hard time! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 4 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: I was just giving him a hard time! I knew you were. I was just playing along. It means that he reverse mojo'd it. He took back his call and then the EPS found the AN heights over Greenland again. I was just tagging on to what you were saying. It would have sounded better if in person... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Euro Weeklies have a little something for everyone. If you are in the "winter is over crowd" go look at the control. If you are in the "we might still have some winter left crowd," look at the ensemble. And we all know how accurate the Weeklies have been during these past two winters. I think the problem right now is that all modeling is now playing "catch up" with the MJO. I am going to wait until tomorrow, and I might do a longer post regarding that. Until the MJO is reconciled, no model is infallible. I do like where the ensemble products are today. We all know the drill. Been there, done that, and have the t-shirt to show for it. I figure most of us are here to hunt storms and good patterns. Sometimes that works out and sometimes it doesn't. I am just going to enjoy what we have and hope that we can reel this pattern inside of d10. I think November is going to show back up, and I could be wrong. To steal @tnweathernut 's term, pattern persistence is important. If a cold pattern sets up, it might be tough to move. Our problem is actually getting that cold pattern to set up. I am certainly jaded due to last winter, but not confined by its terms either. I have said this before, I see a lot of elements in modeling right now that reminds me of November - the MJO is not one of them yet. It is also important to remember that MJO phases give different results during Feb/Mar/April. As we move closer to March, the warm phases change. I will drop that link below. Yesterday, I set a benchmark of Feb 5 for the trough to slide into the East. Looks like ensemble modeling is still moving forward in time at about that point. Knock on wood, it has not been pushed yet. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ To me the demarcation point(between a good and bad pattern) will be once the trough slides eastward, does it pull back West and leave us with too much of a SER? Does the big, red blob in the North Pacific reappear? Time will tell. Part of what makes this fun is trying to figure it out. I talk about fishing often. I talk about the Madison River often. When I first fished it, it kicked my tail. Then, I figured out some of its secrets, and caught a few more fish the next year. And just when I thought I knew enough to steadily catch fish...it kicked my tail again. Weather is pretty much the same way. The rough patches will teach you to be that much better when the fishing gets good again. The Madison is always changing. It does have a rhythm, but it can change. For example, that caddis hatch that I talk about often. I have it figured out. Rolled out there one night. Caddis were everywhere. Fish wouldn't take my #16 Iris caddis not matter how good the presentation. So, I head back to Blue Ribbon Flies which is my go-to shop in West Yellowstone. Craig Matthews, who literally wrote the book on the modern Madison, is sitting at his fly-tying bench. He wears reading glasses now and has sliver hair...but the guys just know the Madison. He lives on it. He breathes it. So, I presented my problem to him. He said he had seen the same thing, but he had figured it out. The fish were taking epeorus spinners. They are very small and were mixed in with the massive caddis hatch. Went back to the river, had a great evening. I thought I had it licked. Same deal happened again! This time the fish wouldn't take the epeorus or the caddis fly that I presented. Went back and spoke with Craig. This time they were working either a midge or another smaller mayfly. The river was always changing. Each of those tough evenings made me a better fisherman though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 24, 2020 Share Posted January 24, 2020 Phasing bomb on the Euro. Sadly too late and too warm for most Valley locations but SWVa and the mountains get to measure in feet. 3-6 on the Eastern Rim, Plateau and more in far NETN. Every one else looks like rain. It would be an all time eastern valley screw job if it went like the Euro is depicting with snow just south of Chattanooga but rain from Chatty to just NE of Morristown. When a monster phases like that and bombs to our southeast and East and its raining and in the 40s, it's tough to swallow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now