Coach B Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, tennvolfan said: I’ve noticed an overall uptick in late winter events around here......Pre 2000, I would never have believed that late winter would produce without producing in January- but it appears it’s more likely now. I can’t find any records in this area that late winter events happened after nothing earlier. Maybe it’s a new precedent in this late phase positive AMO. I think the AMO needs to flip to see where the cards fall. We are nearly 25 years into the positive phase so it’s time is limited. No doubt that it seems late winter has been producing better than mid winter for the last decade or so. Maybe the lengthening wavelengths negate whatever pattern/climate problems or bad luck we've had in the heart of winter. I was mostly lamenting that 13-14 and 14-15 had the potential to bust the area out of the long term snow drought. Nashville is way overdue a 20"+ year, or at least a couple of 15" years in a row. You can't convince me that at least some of it isn't bad luck because places in all directions have had some big years in the last decade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12z GFS @ 210 please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12z GFS @ 210 please.About as perfect as it gets for Eastern areas in terms of track. Just inside Hatterus. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: About as perfect as it gets for Eastern areas in terms of track. Just inside Hatterus. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I haven't looked super carefully today at much...computer issue this AM. That said, looks like the third straight run with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Surprised the slider on the 0z Euro at 130ish has not been spoken about. The 12z GFS has a faint sig of that small system. The Euro at 0z also had the d9 storm as well, but was more amped. I would be glad to split the difference between the 12z GFS and 0z Euro regarding that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Check out the 500 anomaly at 342 on the 12z GFS. Probably should say that in banter since that is an operational at extreme range, but that is pretty impressive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Both the GFS and CMC have cooled considerably over our forum region around 8. Of course the CMC only goes through 240 by the GFS goes through d10. Those runs are a break from continuity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The 12z GEFS mean has increased to fairly hefty amounts across the forum area for the fourth straight run. Impressive, but take it with a huge grain knowing its verification lately. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 So, is the new supercomputer part of the GEPS as well? Gets this look late in the run. Probably not super accurate given the time, but just wondering if the ensemble is running on the new computer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Euro leaves the energy behind in the GOM and was a strung out mess. Will be interesting to see the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Stop the presses...the 12z Euro brings that energy that was left...up the EC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Can't comment much or make a gif right now, but to my eyes at least, the Euro was close to some the bigger solutions the GFS has been throwing out with its energy at H5. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 In the words of Yoda...there is another. The Euro leaves energy behind and then grabs it with a second coastal Miller A. Looks to me like the operationals at 12z are fairly similar. Definitely a time frame to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Ah what the heck I figured it out on this computer: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Look at that banana high sitting over that system on the 12z Euro. At 240, there is yet another vortex diving into the back of that trough. All told, there is a bowling ball, a Miller A, and who knows what coming right after that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Seeing this weekends system dwindle away has been tough, but I am more than happy to make it back to back trips if next weekends storm can trend well. Heck, some of the looks I am seeing on both the GFS and Euro would not take a lot of tweaking to get my home state in on some action. I have plenty of travel miles saved up, so I will stay tuned. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 The Euro is frustratingly warm with decent tracks on those systems. Would probably be a snow above 3000 feet scenario if it's right on temp profiles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Control looks like it would have been a beast, but don't have the individual members yet, outside of UL winds: Looks like the 850 circulation was a little too far north for many of use though: Might not be too bad though from NE Arkansas and NW TN up the Ohio valley 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 12z EPS looks good in the LR. It is the last frame which is iffy on verification. However, I am showing it to support the idea that the EPS today matches the Weeklies evolution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 Sorry, cut off the date when I cropped it. The EPS map above is for Feb 6th. Looks remarkable similar to the GEPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Sorry, cut off the date when I cropped it. The EPS map above is for Feb 6th. Looks remarkable similar to the GEPS. Could February make us forget about the horrors of December and January? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I believe the advertised cold ,and tbh ,probable snowy pattern has legs this time . The eps plot carvers just posted is actually showing a Greenland block trying to setup along with the +PNA and CPF.. STJ staying active as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 I am not sure about day 15, but day 9-10 is lit with possibilities. Doesn't mean anything has to happen, but the general look is there on all global modeling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 1 hour ago, weathertree4u said: Could February make us forget about the horrors of December and January? LOL. Man, it would have to be an awesome pattern to move an overall D- pattern into the A column. So many of these LR patterns have withered away to nothing. That has been a trend all winter. But I like Boone’s optimism. He has been doing this for a while. For now, I am going to enjoy the blue being on the correct side of the continent on recent ensemble runs, but w one eye over my shoulder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 The 18z GEFS saw the 2 inch mean expanded in the SW valley areas and down into northern Alabama. It's still snowing on it at the end of the run most likely. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 18z GEFS snow mean that @John1122 mentioned. It is a bit of an outlier, but not sure I have seen the GEFS this strong in some time. Also, the GEFS has the least coldest look of all of the ensembles, but was still better than 12z. As @Daniel Boone mentioned, heights are building in the general vicinity of Greenland. IF that happens, that would allow the cold to finally be blocked and held in NA. Long way to go, but we are going to enjoy each run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Hi guys. David gold posted this last night on Anthony Masiello page on Twitter. Maybe some of yall can make some sense with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 @Mr. Kevin There is a conversation about that here (I'm baroowoofr): https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2020-operation-thaw-alaska.663/page-136#post-232967 Sadly, I have had three 10% beers now and am beyond further cogent answers ATT. Also see: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 29 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: @Mr. Kevin There is a conversation about that here (I'm baroowoofr): https://southernwx.com/community/threads/january-2020-operation-thaw-alaska.663/page-136#post-232967 Sadly, I have had three 10% beers now and am beyond further cogent answers ATT. Also see: I'm Mr. Golf over there lol. I haven't been there in a while though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Great tracks on the GFS through198, but no cold air in the entire lower 48. That massive vortex in the gulf of Alaska just pumps in Pacific air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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