PowellVolz Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just had an earthquake in NKnox Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: Just had an earthquake in NKnox Co . yep!!! Felt it over towards Papermill / Middlebrook area also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 yep!!! Felt it over towards Papermill / Middlebrook area also.3.6 is what I just saw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 3.6 magnitude, approximately 6 miles from LaFollette. John.....what did you experience? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 could hear that quake, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Was that what that was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Wow, heard and felt it here in Morgan County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greyhound Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Just had an earthquake in NKnox Co . The ensembles for dang sure missed that. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 I lived across from Holston Defense in Kingsport when I was growing up and it felt like some of the explosions over there did. Kind of like a shockwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BhamParker Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Hey guys, its been awhile since I have been on here, but I am from Alabama and will be making a trip with the family to the mountains in Gatlinburg in hopes of some nice snow from the weekend system. Our cabin is 2900 feet up off ski mountain road and we will be arriving early Saturday morning and driving back on Monday. We did this a couple years ago and Carvers Gap and a few of you other folks that are used to dealing with events in the mountains were a big help. I look forward to tracking this weekends storm and hope we can score on a nice NW flow event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Heard the quake here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Euro Weeklies actually correlate to the 12z EPS today...that is a good thing considering that it is derived from the 0z Euro suite. Cold in Alaska dives in the eastern U.S., forms a massive trough, tries to lift out, gets trapped, and rotates cold into the eastern US for about four weeks. Not all cold, but basically a BN heights over HB pinwheeling cold fronts into the US until it burns out. Only danger would be that it tightens up so much that heights rise underneath it. When I saw it, I thought that looked like a pretty good storm look. NE TN has a snow mean of nearly 11." Rest of the area is climatology or better. Fits the trends of the last 36 hours where modeling has cooled considerably during 10-15. @weathertree4u, no idea of this verifies but sort of confirms what you were asking about earlier today. Warm-up is being shortened and muted. A friend shared with me Eric Webb on Twitter commented on exactly that. No idea if it holds. We need the MJO to get out of 5/6 quickly if it goes back...but we can be cautiously optimistic today that it appears that winter may have left a light on for us. Temps for the next 46 days are normal on the Euro Weeklies. That is good sign for a model that is typically warm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 This is centered on February 6 to March 6. It is the 30 day 500mb anomaly. Trough is at times deeper and shallower, but this is a pretty good average of the daily looks. That is a decent storm pattern with cold source regions. And that is a cooperative Pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 And the question is...Is this another head fake? That is entirely possible. Just sharing some maps, information, and opinions. But again, the good thing is that the Weeklies actually do match the next run at 12z. The control run, while not great for us, dumps four feet over the NE. That would imply a good storm track for us as well which the mean does support. Take with a huge grain of salt. @holston, do you have the November gif in your library anywhere of the 500 pattern? Have to think the Weeklies look pretty similar. I have one map in my attachments that looks very similar. We will enjoy this run, and see where it goes from here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Here are the first 14 days of November. Here is the seven day time frame found on the Euro Weeklies for Feb 4-11 at 500mb. Pretty close. I am ahead of myself for sure. Would be really neat to see that even get close. And for sure, that is apples to oranges since one is a temp map and one is 500. (Edit) I have found the Weekly temp maps take some time to catch-up to the 500 map though the surface from Feb 7-14 looks similar. Remember...huge grain of salt at this point, but fun to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The 18z GFS is a quite a run. Easily the best of the year with two Miller As(not counting this weekend's system) and a slider so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Glad you found it. My gifs only go back to early Dec now (they must limit the number you can have stored, gonna have to try to figure out Imgur I guess) I've been looking at old threads on 33 and Rain an southernwx and all I could get was one EPS H5 look from 29 Oct +312 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS is a quite a run. Easily the best of the year with two Miller As(not counting this weekend's system) and a slider so far. Yea, I agree, yet, the wild swings in the models make me real nervous to get on board. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The difference on the 18z GFS is that it sneaks in an additional cold front right around d8. Fun run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, weathertree4u said: Yea, I agree, yet, the wild swings in the models make me real nervous to get on board. The great thing is as a hobby we can let her rip. If we miss, no biggie. One of these days, we will reel in a pattern like that. Maybe not this time. Again, that extra cold front around d8-9 might not be real. It totally changes the complexity of that run. Good thing is, that is actually inside of d10 - barely. But the way I look at, just enjoy the ride. Speaking of wild swings, you and I noticed modeling getting "fidgety" yesterday. That is usually a sure sign they are getting ready to bounce around. I highly doubt modeling is done bouncing. The only thing in our favor is we are due for a pattern change. So we will learn from the last head fake. We will enjoy it from afar, but we are not buying that look yet unless it is with Monopoly money. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Sorry I can never resist, but that makes twice this year we've seen something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 That vort on that one run took almost the exact track. If there had been some organized souther stream energy in the Gulf, that would have been the GFS run to end all GFS runs, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 The 18z has a Miller B, two Miller As, a slider, and a clipper. The snowfall maps are a bit wonky as the valleys get far less than the foothills. That is likely due to the position of the slp and that modeling is notorious for not getting the temp crash in the northwest quadrant correct. But those SLPs in that run were boomers. One is at 988 on its way 974 over Massachusetts. The next one is 999 over western NC on its way to 983 over Toronto. If anything, this run probably show where the pattern "could" go and not necessarily where it "will" go. Holston do you have the 7 day 500 anomaly map for d8-15 of that run? I am about out of space. It shows how different that run is. Probably an outlier, but interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Which one are you talking about the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: Which one are you talking about the GFS? Yes, 7d 500mb anomaly map for the last 7 days of the 18z GFS run. The one day map around 360 is about as blue as I have seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 If we can take one thing from this run that might be real...the spacing in between storms is ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 For some reason tropical Tidbits is running slow, so used Pivotal: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Here's a close up now that TT is running better for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: For some reason tropical Tidbits is running slow, so used Pivotal: I would be shocked if that verified as one doesn't see that on modeling every winter. Severe break from continuity. Let's see if any subsequent runs get close. Obviously won't be that good every run. That is a rare bird right there. However, that is what a Hudson Bay high can do and why it has produced many good snowstorms in the East. Watch it force all of that energy southeast and even manages a banana high at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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