December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I didn't mean to say it was wrong. I was just pointing out how big the swing was. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

No, I think it is probably right. But i just remembered that ice dragon gif I made and thought it actually looked like a fire dragon's breath now, lol. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Man, I don't knowhow much time you have on your hands.

It's Saturday. It's raining. What the heck.

I tried to sync them. 

GEFS from one week ago and then today:

 

 

 

 

 

GEPS from last week and then today

 

 

EPS same deal as above (not able to time as well since I only had hr 240+ saved):

 

 

 

Trend of the GEPS centered on 1/26:

 

 

 

Trend of the GEFS centered on the same day:

 

 

And the EPS:

 

Something happened between the 13th and the 14th that made em flip. Each one flipped in that time frame. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like a strong candidate to me:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Almost to the day, lol:

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I didn't mean to say it was wrong. I was just pointing out how big the swing was. 

LOL.  I didn't mean it that way.  It was not a response to you.  I was just saying it looks like it was right.  The Euro operational has been stellar in refusing to flip, even disagreeing with its own ensemble and all other global ensembles.  So just comparing ensembles, the EPS is a lot warmer and has a somewhat different progression than the GEPS and GEFS after d10.  I would probably bet on the EPS, but not without hesitation.  In recent memory, there have been two times that the EPS has totally missed a pattern by going too warm...November 2018 and November 2019.  This does sort of have that feel to it.  That said the other ensembles have been slowly trending to the EPS, but they are just now getting into the ballpark regarding d10-15.  So for now, I am going to watch the Euro operation(warm) for trends in the d8-10.  Thank you for the animations as well.  Much appreciated.  At least we will have a record of the flip flopping by all three models.  LOL.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Was having a conversation with Jon over at Southernwx about this:

The biggest caveat I see is that the most recent run was on Jan 15 and as we saw above, that was close to the time everything started to flip. If they still look good on the next release, I will be more interested. 

I didn't even know the JMA had ensembles, lol. But those verification maps look good to me. 

[Mr. Kevin]

Would it matter once the AAM trends more neutral from the big spike? Just trying to be optimistic since winter doesn't end until march 20th and meterological winter is March 1st. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Was having a conversation with Jon over at Southernwx about this:

The biggest caveat I see is that the most recent run was on Jan 15 and as we saw above, that was close to the time everything started to flip. If they still look good on the next release, I will be more interested. 

I didn't even know the JMA had ensembles, lol. But those verification maps look good to me. 

Yeah, Jon was a great poster when he was over in the SE forum.  That JMA was a good run.  And yeah, pretty sure it was made right before the models flipped.   The EPS broke bad at 12z on 1/16/20.  LOL.  The JMA has not been the best with handling the MJO this winter.  I do like its week 3 forecasts though.  They do OK.  I don't really hold any Weeklies accountable if they were published pre-flip.  Ha! 

[jaxjagman]

This sucks

For folks using my Albany webpage for tropical meteorology monitoring, I've been made aware that the rainfall dataset I've been using has been retired. I will be retiring any product with rainfall as a result. This will mean no more monsoon or rainrate products.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

10 hours ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Would it matter once the AAM trends more neutral from the big spike?

Not sure. I still learning about how all that impacts us. Will definitely be interesting to see how things adjust, (if at all) when it levels out. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z Euro has an upslope event within reasonable range.  The 6z GFS has two potential winter storms.  Temps are still lousy on the ensembles with minor improvements late in each run.  I think the best we can do for the next 2-3 weeks is to try to find a needle in a haystack.  Nobody is saying that it will happen, but it can snow during a warm pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

See what you all think about the LR 12z GEFS after d10+.  I can't tell.   Pretty rare to see that look.  So guessing it has one foot in one camp of "thought" and one foot in another.  The GEPS looks really good.  For today, I am going to assume the GEFS is heading there...some sarcasm intended.

As for the MJO @Holston_River_Rambler, looks like it is going to abruptly reverse out of the bad phases once it enters.  What I don't like is to see it slowly creeping in there for a few days.  Next thing you know, it will be circling back through.  LOL!

[Carvers Gap]

For folks in NE TN, going to have to watch next weekend's storm if the Euro is correct.  That has been a workable setup during the past decade.  Variations of that setup are on each global ensemble at 12z.  Bit of a long shot, but we have nothing else...and we know that still has room to trend.  On the CMC, many areas see light snowfall.

Also, if one loops the 500 map on the Euro operational.  Sure looks like those heights are lifting out of Alaska with an EPO ridge sliding in underneath.  Yeah, it is a 10 day map...so there is that.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah, not bad overall considering where we are and the Euro looks like it was about to launch another bowling ball at us that would probably not cut as much as it looks like it might. It also looks like it might try to bury the energy like the GFS did. (Sorry can't make up my mind, lol)

There a few frames of the GFS when I though it was going to time everything just right, (just outside the Euro OP range between hrs 268 and 288) for a nice storm, but it just left the energy back and let it spin over N. Mexico. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's the Euro for reference to what I'm seeing:

[Carvers Gap]

EPS control has a big storm right after d10.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Few thoughts on ye olden Kinge ensemble 12z:

weird pattern just outside the OPs range, probably the only way we could have something have a chance in that modeled longwave pattern:

Indeed the control runs and 850 low right over Chattanooga:

 

 

If you wanted to look for something favorable toward the end, you can see a little bit of height rises over AK

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

EPS control has a big storm right after d10.  

Yeah, lol. It takes while for the members to load on weathermodels, but I was going to ask if weatherbell had the precip maps for that one.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

All I have is the 850s, 500s 300s, etc. winds, but it looked like it could be nice

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like a lot of the individual members will have it too:

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Few thoughts on ye olden Kinge ensemble 12z:

weird pattern just outside the OPs range, probably the only way we could have something have a chance in that modeled longwave pattern:

Indeed the control runs and 850 low right over Chattanooga:

 

 

If you wanted to look for something favorable toward the end, you can see a little bit of height rises over AK

Just speaking of the pattern.  I don't think the ECMWF knows if it is going into phase 5.  If it doesn't...we are in business.  If it does, warm.  Personally, looks to me like the EPS is holding energy into the southwest and it fouled that run.  Look at the 12z GEFS and GEPS and it is almost the same set-up but without the southwest bias.

[Carvers Gap]

Regarding the d10+ pattern....edit...my guess is that ensembles are stuck between MJO phases 1/2 and 5/6. So, likely is just two different solutions within the same depiction.   Right now, the only model I halfway trust is the Euro operational.  So, almost better to extrapolate from it.  It "almost" is something good from a pattern perspective at the end.  But extrapolating d10+ from modeling is likely unwise, at least on a message forum.

Looks like modeling is trying to cook-up one or two storms beginning next weekend.   

[Carvers Gap]

My guess for the first piece of energy next weekend...milller B hybrid with some energy taking the low road.  Energy probably jumps from the low west of the Apps to the Piedmont.  If the slp forms far enough south, NE TN could see an outside shot.  

Second system...Euro control basically tucked a little slip in the NE right behind the first storm.  It forced the track south of the second system south, and a big storm resulted.

All of it is a bit of a long shot, but it is all we have for now.  Welcome to Nino winters where temps and patterns are marginal.  Great day of football.  Good luck!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For those interested, here is the control's storm:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Wouldn't it be something if, when all is said and done this Wednesday (when JMA runs again), ensembles are showing the -EPO again. 

The JMA would come out looking nice. 

 

GFS not bad

 

Even the Euro Control was showing some ridging into AK at that time frame:

 

Lots of shortwaves ricocheting around the next week + 

If we start to try to reel in a pattern shift again, I'm gonna be in Murphy's Law mode. 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Also saw someone post the UKMET in the Mid Atlantic forum. I hadn't looked at it, but more support for possibility with the next weekend system:

[Carvers Gap]

Noticed a pretty nice improvement on the 18z GEFS snow mean w/ several big hitters.  I was somewhat surprised to see both the GEFS walk back its d10-15 forecast almost completely by 18z.  The 12z GEPS supports that.  The CFSv2 will have none of it.  The 12z EPS is basically there(GEFS look) with a slight correction of its Southwest bias.   And the Euro operational offers some support at the end of its run.  With modeling moving around so much, tells me the final outcome is still fairly fluid regarding the pattern.  Again, this has the feel of the October step-down.  I just can't say we get to that really cold November look.   Thankfully, we at least have some outside shot stuff to track.  

 And, it is actually cold outside.  So that verified, but just not in duration.  We have windchills in the teens.  @BlunderStorm has some wicked cold windchills in Southwest Virginia it appears.   Have to admit that the cold hurts after having those temps in the 70s!  Now, go back and look at the October thread and you will find similar comments.  LOL.   Would be awesome if the 54-55 analog actually scores again.  It may be close by the time winter closes.

[Carvers Gap]

33 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Also saw someone post the UKMET in the Mid Atlantic forum. I hadn't looked at it, but more support for possibility with the next weekend system:

Yeah, that is impressive. @John1122, we talked about this yesterday.  Think we actually have a chance to pull that off(cutter to SE slp)?

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Wouldn't it be something if, when all is said and done this Wednesday (when JMA runs again), ensembles are showing the -EPO again. 

The JMA would come out looking nice. 

 

GFS not bad

 

Even the Euro Control was showing some ridging into AK at that time frame:

 

Lots of shortwaves ricocheting around the next week + 

If we start to try to reel in a pattern shift again, I'm gonna be in Murphy's Law mode. 

 

 

 

We need tomorrow to continue the good trends.  The great thing is that we aren't just looking at the d10+ right now.  There is a storm inside of a week now that we are loosely tracking.  Wouldn't be the first time that we have lost a pattern one to find it again.  I mean, I think we are going to get a good scouring in NA after this cold shot.  I just wonder if maybe we sneak back into a good pattern a little sooner than it looked yesterday.  But still...that MJO either needs curl back through 5/6 quickly or it needs to go COD.  We can't have it pause in the warm phases.  So that look keeps me fairly tempered.  And again, that is likely not a true "null."  

And for those that say, "Here we go again..."  Maybe.  That is what makes it fun.  We get our money's worth in this forum.  LOL.  Anyway, great season to the Titans.  Good luck to the Chiefs.  I am an old school Steelers fan.  Bradshaw, Mean Joe, Stallworth, Ham, Franco Harris, Swann, and Jack Lambert.  I was fortunate to grow up watching some truly great superstars across all sports.  Bird, Magic, Pete Rose, 1980 Miracle on Ice, Tony White,  Steel Curtain, Reggie White, Will Gault, Anthony Hancock, and so on.  Those guys were my heroes growing up.  I think kids today had some good ones playing in that game today in Mahomes and Henry.  Was also nice to see two teams battling it out in the cold in KC.  That is how football should be played.  And hey, I still have my weather radio from when I was a kid.  Used to listen each evening to the updates and each morning.  I knew exactly when the new forecast came out.