December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

47 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

It’s funny reading about all these anomalies and teleconnectors needed for us to get in position for a good snow but growing up, (I’m 45) all we looked for was a L pressure tracking across the GOM coast and we knew we were in business.


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Maybe we just need Powell to post prior to each model suite.  Seems like the Euro got your message.  With your post just prior to 12z tomorrow, could you mention heavy snows inland?  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It's like the EPS is really trying to push the ridge into the west coast, but can't quite get there. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I mean, if you look at the Z500 normalized anomaly and squint and pretend the 850 temp anomaly maps don't exist, it's almost promising. 

[Coach B]

32 minutes ago, John1122 said:

We simply lived in a colder environment then for whatever reason. It was the same environment that made me excited when Margie Ison said "Alberta Clipper'. That meant 3-5 inches of snow and no school.  Now clippers are rare, half the time they produce WAA and rain or nothing here and mainly produce snow over the upper midwest and Ohio Valley. One thing about it after this year, the 1991-2020 30 year normals will make it harder to be AN temp wise and BN snow wise.

I  agree. I've been going back through the historical NOW data for Jan and Feb when I have time the last several days. As Carver's has pointed out, it was just much colder with more snow from 1960 thru about 1985. People who grew up in that era in TN say things like, "we used to get at least a couple 2-4" snows every year, and they hung around for a week or more." They were generally right, even for non elevated areas throughout the state. The number of days with snow cover for Nashville in the winters of 1977-1979 alone is astounding compared to now. I didn't even look at the 60s, as I'm sure they were similar. Sometime around 86 that changed. I think some big events for the following 15 years or so kind of masked the change. We had the slider in 88, the Superstorm in 93, the massive ice storm in 94, big events in otherwise not really cold years in 96 and 98 and so on. Interestingly, as has been pointed out by others, the 1920s thru the 1950s stunk for winter as well, so a decades long bad stretch cannot be fully blamed on man made GW. It's pretty neat to dig back into the historical record. So its my hope that we shift back into a more favorable period before I get to old to enjoy it!

[PowellVolz]

Maybe we just need Powell to post prior to each model suite.  Seems like the Euro got your message.  With your post just prior to 12z tomorrow, could you mention heavy snows inland?  

I’ll take one for the team


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[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, TellicoWx said:

That analog map has been debunked and is misleading (it's based off outdated research)..research in the last couple years (and ongoing) has shown the QBO is more complex than original research showed. Naval Research Academy, a team of researchers in Singapore, and a couple other teams spread around the global have started presenting their findings at the AMS Conferences. Basic terms is the QBO is broken into 4 categories (with an additional category for those 4). It ties the solar activities effects on the troposphere (which the QBO winds transports down to the ocean surface), east/west winds (and their configuration) basically acts as a shear component to different areas along the MJO...its basically the "top down" approach and begins tying together everything in the atmosphere. The future inclusion of Ocean Modeling into the GFS should include the "top down" method and hopefully will be a major improvement to LR forecasting. The current QBO setup favors capping in the MJO "cold phases" and shear enhancement into the MC.

Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
 

Tellico, do you have a weather background? Man, you know your stuff.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I put parts of the article (I think) Tellico is talking about, in the educational section a while back, mostly over my head, but thought others might want to dissect it. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

IOD region seems to be flaring up again:

Maybe one of those waves (ERWs?) triggering it since the convection seems to move from the E IO to the W IO? Slightly south of the equator, so may not have much of an impact. I'll take any flies in the ointment at this point. 

 

The convection in the western Pac, on the other hand, did briefly flare up today in the MJO 7 region as the TC departed SE, and north of the equator, but it looks to be weakening almost looks like it is backbuilding toward New Guinea and region 6, lol.

 

MC looks relatively quiet for now, not saying it will stay that way though. In fact the Euro, as you'd expect from its RMM plots and Tellico's info, rebuilds it into the MC:

 

But interestingly the Euro also builds some convection west from there, too:

Of interest to me here is that Isotherm and Jeff have both said that as long as the convection is south of the equator, it has more of an impact on the S. hemisphere. If I'm misrepresenting what y'all said, apologies. 

Early on in the first gif of the Indian Ocean, there was a hint of some of the convection creeping north of the equator. The Euro OP, later in its run though, really tries to build it north of/ near the equator in what would be the MJO 1/2 region:

 

(sorry for the speed of that gif, but it is what it is) 

Now in Isotherm's update he predicted the MJO to have little impact as it would stay mostly south of the equator:

"1) The MJO intraseasonal passage is predominantly transporting its momentum along and south of the equator. Thus, whether the technical wave dissipates in phase 7 or phase 8 is largely immaterial from my standpoint. The momentum induction required to mediate North Hemispheric vicissitudes in polar night jet strength is simply not present. The transports yield a distorted MJO response with mid-latitude ridging; hence the Canadian height rises, and Atlantic ridging to the South of Greenland, but these features are not sufficiently poleward to induce significant polar, equatorward transport of airmasses. 

 

2) Thus, while the MJO wave is anomalous, its effects are somewhat less than desirable in comparison to more bonafide northern hemispheric responses. Again, the directional propensity of the MJO is closely mirroring last winter's MJO passage [directed generally S - equator] through 8 in February, which yielded a rather distorted/quasi-improved response in the NHEM."

Part of his response was I think in answer to the debate some have been having, not really here, but there have been some on 33 and rain who felt assured it would get to phase 8. Isotherm's answer: 5, 6, 7, or 8 it doesn't matter. 

But, if the Euro is right about the Indian Ocean, (and to be fair it is an OP at the end of its run, so we know how that goes, lol) that might actually have some sort of an impact. 

Just looking for something to add some umph to shake up what we have.  

I think what happened was that we actually had a short lived attempt to build a genuine -EPO, but the strengthening STJ from the AAM spike keeps decapitating the ridges that build there. 

Case in point:

There have been and will be some attempts to build a - EPO (using the GFS just to illustrate the point, not to predict any certainty)

I label them "Big Old Ridge Attempts" and there are 3 at least as depicted by the GFS over the next two weeks. But each time a -EPO tries to develop, it gets kicked out by these super stout filaments from the PV.  So we get a nice cold shot or two, but nothing sticks. 

Look at the global AAM (may be part of the reason for the above), it is not just off the charts, but off the page, lol

I may be wrong, but I'm guessing the scientist who made those plots never anticipated it getting this high? 

Not trying to say that if that drops it'll make the pattern better, since I have no clue how it works beyond as it has climbed, it seems the long range went splat. Maybe some of the fantasy looks will start to improve once that dwindles out a bit. 

[Carvers Gap]

Good thing, Holston, that IOD region I think is maybe phase 1 and 2 of the MJO.  That is what JB was talking about...1,2 and 6 are firing at the same time and it is creating a conflicting MJO signal.  But you can see, it is not a true null where the MJO region is just dead.  There are two regions firing simultaneously.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

It's like the EPS is really trying to push the ridge into the west coast, but can't quite get there. 

And that could be a model bias at play there.  I am always suspicious of EPS troughs in the Southwest.  I mean those actually happen, but I about halfway assume each time the model is wrong.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was a little tongue in cheek in my post about the EPS, but if I'm honest about it, I did kind of like that look. Just hard to fulsomely buy anything right now past day 0, lol. If you actually had an H5 look like that, you'd have to think we'd have some sort of overrunning/ or Miller B scenario.  

[John1122]

The GFS initially showed that wave taking the path it just took on the Euro. It was colder than the Euro and gave a few inches of snow to parts of the area.  Then all the models went from suppression city to cutter parade.  Maybe this will trend back south of us. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'll be interested to see when and if this AAM burst or whatever it is dies off, how things start to develop. It really seemed to come out of nowhere. One day everything was looking up and then Ventirce/ BAMwx et al. were tweeting about it like crazy.  I'm not sure what the predictability is with AAM, but you'd think someone would have seen that one coming. 

Just some food for thought too. Here is a composite from Snowy Hibbo's page of 500mb patterns when the AAM has been +1:

Imagine that. An Aleutian low, a little N. Hemisphere blocking, and a STJ aimed at the southeast. Hmmmm believe I've seen that somewhere before.....

I wish I had the Euro's take on this, but all I have are the CFS and GEFS:

You'd think, according to the CPCs chart above, where we are at with the AAM/GWO whatever it is, would promote things like Dateline Convection and South American Convection, but I guess like Jeff said the Tropical Cyclone (Tino, I think) took all the good stuff away and said screw it, I'm headed to Tahiti. 

But wait a minute though, looks like Tino has now dissipated: 

what excitement will wait for us by the 3 AM Euro? 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

But after making all that I think I can see what's happening. You have had some attempts to create a - EPO ridge, but the vorts and all the energy aimed at the west coast of north America just keep shearing all that positive vorticity apart. A big storm pumps up a ridge at Alaska when it is the Aleutians and as that energy and warmth and ridging are transported north and up into the atmosphere, the huge SPV just starts to shear it apart and all it can do is roll SE and be pulled further that way by the TPV near Greenland. Rinse and repeat right now.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One good thing about all this is that these systems are amplifying west of us right now and by the time they start to move out, they have picked up enough speed to not cause flooding. 

You may have pointed this out @Carvers Gap ,but some of those big surface highs are verifying. There's a 1044 in the Yukon and a 1044 over Lake Ontario. 

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

One good thing about all this is that these systems are amplifying west of us right now and by the time they start to move out, they have picked up enough speed to not cause flooding. 

You may have pointed this out @Carvers Gap ,but some of those big surface highs are verifying. There's a 1044 in the Yukon and a 1044 over Lake Ontario. 

Biggest problem I am seeing, and one can see it on the 18z GFS, is the cold is bottled up in northern Canada.  Not sure what to think.  I do suspect this jog over towards phase 6 is likely causing some of this.  Just means that phase 6 is lit with convection.  Phase 6 of the MJO will keep eastern NA free of cold as long as it fires.  That is the change in modeling that has brought this about IMHO.  I am pretty much punting January.  That leaves me about three realistic weeks of tracking.  That last week of February is mostly a spring week IMBY.  Every once in a while we see winter then, but not lately.  So when we hit early February, I will be able to see the end of winter on modeling.  Going to need to see some changes very, very soon on modeling.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Also of note while I'm on the recent developments kick:

Current SS temps:

7 day change in those:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looking at some of the images of La Nina's online, I'm not sure that is far enough west to make a difference, but interesting nonetheless. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Something else to think about after looking at the 18z GEFS. That storm that almost came together on the Euro at 12z, the GEFS had a few members that blew a N/ Stream wave through and amplified a wave on the front. 

The Euro has the two phasing, but even the Euro probably hasn't figured this one out at 5 days, given how fas the flow is right now. 

I would bet the northern one would arrive faster than the southern one, that is if the shortwaves even hold together and make it to us, lol.

But it is on the table as a possibility in this desert of hope. 

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS was much colder...by quite a bit.

[AMZ8990]

37 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Also of note while I'm on the recent developments kick:

Current SS temps:

7 day change in those:

Late season modoki signal?!?  Just noticing the colder waters of the northern coast of western South America.  Warm waters in the central pacific are definitely more dispersed In that 2nd graph too

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, AMZ8990 said:

Late season modoki ignal?!?

Maybe, but that western Indian Ocean also looks warm. And as Tellico has pointed out, not sure it wouldn't get pulled back to the MC as it's trying to do right now. I hope the western Indian Ocean fires up, near the horn of Africa. 

[Carvers Gap]

This is a fairly big change for d10-15, even for the GEFS.  On a 5-day map, those are nearly 20F departures in the plains.  Proceed at your own risk.   Image on the left is 18z.  Image on the right is 12z.  We probably know how this story ends, but ensemble trends are worth noting.

[tennvolfan]

Branching out a bit from another forum where I’m known as Curt. Just read the content today in this thread and found it informative and interesting. I’ll still be there but will participate here as well from the Memphis area. Good to be here.

I’ve had a motto over the years....sometimes it’s just not meant to be. Jury is still out but I’m upping my motto percent for this winter. I’m still hoping for some Pac cooperation in February. It’s possible we shall see. If you look back at the dreadful winters from 1935-1939...it’s quite a bit similar.

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

We simply lived in a colder environment then for whatever reason. It was the same environment that made me excited when Margie Ison said "Alberta Clipper'. That meant 3-5 inches of snow and no school.  Now clippers are rare, half the time they produce WAA and rain or nothing here and mainly produce snow over the upper midwest and Ohio Valley. One thing about it after this year, the 1991-2020 30 year normals will make it harder to be AN temp wise and BN snow wise.

I remember the same things and watching Margie as well. Those were the days !

   Yeah, the "averages" will definitely jump a pretty good bit. The problem I have with them adjusting the "normals" is the masking of how much cooler they used to be as u alluded to.

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, tennvolfan said:

Branching out a bit from another forum where I’m known as Curt. Just read the content today in this thread and found it informative and interesting. I’ll still be there but will participate here as well from the Memphis area. Good to be here.

I’ve had a motto over the years....sometimes it’s just not meant to be. Jury is still out but I’m upping my motto percent for this winter. I’m still hoping for some Pac cooperation in February. It’s possible we shall see. If you look back at the dreadful winters from 1935-1939...it’s quite a bit similar.

  It’s good to have a fellow west Tennessean on the board!  

[John1122]

To add to the indexes. This experimental one apparently has to do with the effects of the MJO. It involves heights, tropical forcing, 200mb winds and other factors. But when it's negative it blunts the MJO's cold phase. Apparently it was negative last winter when the MJO went 8-1-2 and we stayed warm. It's very negative right now of course. 

 

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/extratropics/

[Mr. Kevin]

Im not sure if yall are aware of this, but the CPC made February below normal, which i find incredibly shocking. Not sure what they are seeing. I would like to see some changes to somehow salvage some winter so we can perhaps have a better chance at a winter storm.

[John1122]

Just now, Mr. Kevin said:

Im not sure if yall are aware of this, but the CPC made February below normal, which i find incredibly shocking. Not sure what they are seeing. I would like to see some changes to somehow salvage some winter so we can perhaps have a better chance at a winter storm.

They made January below normal at first two and quickly reversed course. I imagine they are using their climate model which has been showing a cold February. It was the first to see the end of the winter heatwave we were in too. 

[Mr. Kevin]

Just now, John1122 said:

They made January below normal at first two and quickly reversed course. I imagine they are using their climate model which has been showing a cold February. It was the first to see the end of the winter heatwave we were in too. 

John, i am just trying to think how we can salvage some winter before time runs out instead of us wishcasting lol.