December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think page 8 is when the Halloween-ish cold front came through and there was a bit of snow.

[Carvers Gap]

22 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I meant it was quick when it finally happened is what I meant. Yeah, we agonized over it for a while. 

Understood.  Transition was about three weeks.  The first "front" broke the heat around the 8th.  The heat kept rebounding very similarly to what we are seeing now on modeling.  I am actually glad that you brought it up - it made me go back and look.  I had forgotten the transition was that long.  It may well be that we are seeing a similar transition...or it may just be the end of winter.  Tough to tell.   But if the transition is similar, we will see a few cold fronts coupled with some extreme warmth in between...then the hammer will drop.  Not saying that will happen, but it would be very cool if it did.  I do remember thinking that fall was finally here...then the next wave of heat would arrive.  It was also very dry around that time which made the heat worse.  Interestingly, the EPS pretty much shuts off the spigot to much of NA not including TX and Seattle.  Otherwise, TN is very dry.  

...I may go back and look at the Euro Weeklies for precip tendencies.  I highly doubt their 500 pattern is anywhere near correct at the 12z run basically sank the 0z like the Bismark.  If I remember correctly, tonight's version of the Weeklies did have a recurring SER.  If that had been run from the afternoon's run...whew.  

[Carvers Gap]

...And I should add that no matter how warm the pattern, one cold front timed with precip could yield a big winter storm.  I suspect we see a couple of East coast storms before things run their course.  Either way,  I am getting my garden order ready and working on a schedule for getting the garden turned over one last time before spring.  Going to get my spring stuff in soon which will include onions and fava beans.  Probably going to start some stuff from seeds this year.  Used to do that quite a bit....

[Carvers Gap]

48 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

The year without a winter!!!

So far, this is eerily similar to last winter.  An early event and then poof.  I had noted a few weeks ago that the West had not had enough snow.  Man, go look at some of the articles out of the Swan Valley in eastern Idaho and look at how badly those roads drifted.  Was incredible.   Snowpack out there has gone from BN to normal(or above) in just two weeks! 

[John1122]

I actually believe the CFS was the first to see the breaking down of the extreme warmth and the cold shots we are about to experience. The EPS will have an ice box run, then a heat run, then one down the middle. Not saying any model is any better, but that all seem to be sucking badly outside of the few weeks we were in the very stable warm pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, the CFS has been pretty good.  It's MJO depiction a few weeks ago was pretty bad and might be now.  But it actually nailed the NE snowstorm a week or so ago.  You could see it had predicted it by the colder temps along the coast.  JB actually noted that interesting detail.  I actually have been looking at each run of the CFSv2 this year.  I haven't in years past because it was so erratic.  It actually has been consistent this year and worthy of consideration in my book.  Plus, it's always a little colder...so it is more fun to look at than the torch runs.  It's Weeklies haven't been any worse than any other model's weeklies.

[Carvers Gap]

The CFSv2 is definitely cold...so if we go cold in February, it will score the coup along with the Euro Weeklies from the last two runs.   

Edit:  The 18z CFSv2 is -10F over the next 30 days regarding anomalies.  Nothing else close to that.  Would be something to see that verify.  We would all be pretty happy.  The Euro Weeklies are -1 to -2F.  

I think a lot of that comes down to how the MJO has been handled.  The Euro has been head and shoulders above other modeling this winter regarding that.  It pretty much got the closest to the last loop correct.  The CFSv2, GEFS, and JMA were all pretty much wrong.  The Canadian might have been close.  But like I said earlier, the MJO may very well be split between two areas of convection.  It may be in null in error.  If so, the battle is between 8/1/2 and 6/7 will decide the next few weeks.  Now, as we get closer to shoulder season, the Euro is pretty much equal to the rest.

[Mr. Kevin]

I am shocked at the persistent warm weather. Isotherm said it would be warm but possibly colder in February, depending on qbo. He has been dead on so far. The cpc is crazy to go below normal for February imo. They updated today i think. 

[Mr. Kevin]

Ive heard the key areas are 30-50mb, which is getting somewhat closer. Out of curiosity, does anyone know how long does the qbo take to influence the pattern?

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I am shocked at the persistent warm weather. Isotherm said it would be warm but possibly colder in February, depending on qbo. He has been dead on so far. The cpc is crazy to go below normal for February imo. They updated today i think. 

One, I bet they had that ready to roll before 12z.  Two, I don't think it is a bad forecast.  I said earlier, if I hadn't seen a model, I would go seasonal to BN for February.  No matter how bad the EPS looked on Thursday, it still doesn't reach into February.  As Holston and I discussed earlier...it may be that this step down is similar to the three week step down that we had during October which led to a cold November.  I am firmly irritated that modeling lost the pattern during the past 36 hours.  The MJO is driving the bus right now.  We need it our of phase 5/6 and in the COD or cold phases.  I hold little hope for the rest of January, but I am definitely not throwing in the towel yet for February.  If we are having this conversation again in two weeks and I am having to look at 10 day models for hope...time to move onto spring.  I will be surprised if we get a sustained 3-4 cold pattern.  I think a 10-14 day pattern is our best hope.  If that 10-14 day time frame is cold enough, that CPC map might verify.  I actually don't think Feb is dependent on the QBO.  We need the MJO region to settle down.  FTR, the QBO has not stalled this winter.  

[TellicoWx]

Ive heard the key areas are 30-50mb, which is getting somewhat closer. Out of curiosity, does anyone know how long does the qbo take to influence the pattern?

The QBO has already been affecting the MJO..that sounding is textbook QBOEM (easterlies are the strongest in the upper layers of the atmosphere)..which enhances the MJO into the MC. When viewing the sounding take into account the entire column (like a hodograph). The QBO is one of the negatives so far this winter (and unfortunately will be the rest of the way). The most favorable QBO for cold is QBOEL (strongest easterlies at the bottom of the sounding, with the upper atmosphere going neutral or slight westerlies beginning to take over). Hopefully the QBO takes a slow decent (would place it more favorably for winter 20/21) vs a quick decent that puts us in westerly phases to start next winter.

Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z GEFS broke towards the EPS over night, but gets there more slowly.  There outcome is a trough in the west/southwest.  The GEPS is the loan outlier now of global ensembles with a nice eastern trough throughout much of its run.  We will see where the MJO is today.  

Mr, Kevin. the QBO is quite dependent on solar phases and possibly ENSO state.  Joe D'Aleo has a graphic(regarding the QBO and solar phase) out there along with some research that he has shared by others.  For example, a strongly positive(or westerly) QBO could actually help us during a solar maximum.  That produces a western ridge.  The QBO could benefit us now if it goes negative and holds.  As long as it doesn't stall, it is in our favor.  A descending QBO in the negative phase usually correlates to an eastern trough with a slight SER if the solar connection research is correct.  In general, find your favorite winters and during many of them you will find the QBO negative at 30mb.  As for the lag time that it takes?  Tough to know.  With it being in a phase change, I have a tendency to think it is not much of a driver at this point at all.  I do think at some point during later winter or early spring, we might find ourselves with a mix of A and C if it finally kicks-in as a driver.  I do think there is much to learn about the QBO.  Right now, the MJO and a warm Pacific basin are driving this bus.

[Carvers Gap]

So you might wonder why the head fake on ensembles.  Again, I had a long post earlier on the MJO which likely is approaching a false null.  Simply put, there is a cold phase region with convection and a warm phase region with convection.  It is highly likely that the Modoki El Nino in connection with a warm Pac Basin(low gradient) is juicing the phase 6 convection in an almost endless cycle.  Ensembles last week had an MJO arching high into 7 with a probable phase 8 ensuing.  Modeling over the weekend began to take the MJO forecast back into the COD and loop it towards phase 6 but stall it just short. If one buys the theory that it is not actually in the COD, the nudge towards phase 6 may mean the phase 6 is stronger than competing phases 8/1/2 convection in modeling.  As soon as that trajectory in 7 curled back towards 6 on the COD forecast, modeling responded almost immediately.  The Euro has led the way on this.  Does it continue to lead the way?  Likely but maybe not.  As we hit February, the wavelengths will change due to the seasonal transition.  Let's see if the MJO follows the early week EMON in that it stalls before reaching 6 and curls across he COD.

One last note regarding the QBO and those record levels of a strong PV...The QBO is known to cause high latitude blocking which disrupts the PV.  Due to the winter QBO beginning in a positive phase at 30mb, one could make a case that particular mechanism(negative QBO) was not in place to disrupt the tightening PV.   That strong PV is another culprit in our warm pattern.  There are not enough disruptions and waves to send cold southward.  We often like to say that PVs pinwheel cold southeastward.  With the PV so strong, those pinwheeling waves of cold are staying tighter to the pole.  One last word of caution, if the oncoming -QBO induces high latitude blocking during summer...it could be quite warm in the East if La Nina develops.  That would also lead to early season blocking next fall.  Feast or famine deal.

Finally, if we are in late January talking about LR forecast, the QBO, a strong PV, and the MJO...the pattern is likely not good.  I can't find even a snowstorm in the LR.  Hopefully that changes.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is the MJO from this mornings RMM1 forecast in combination with the GEFS.  One can see now the cave to the EURO solution.  Also, note the head fake into six and that last segment heading back into the COD.  The EMON had that earlier this week.  It is likely why the EPS flipped warmer on modeling and also why the GEFS likely took until today to flip.  Now, the good thing is that it does not go into 6 and might mean the mega eastern ridge reforming  is transient.  That MJO forecast correlates nicely with modeling.  There is a cool down as it heads into 7 and a crash into the COD.  The eastern ridge returns as it crosses towards 6.  Then modeling balks a bit late in the LR in terms of holding the ridge in the East.  At this point, the MJO is still driving.  We will hope that it heads to 8,1, and 2 from this point on OR stay in the COD.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro got a little nervous too near the edge of the COD last night:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Isotherm just updated his winter forecast. Not many changes, but though some might be interested. 

[weathertree4u]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Isotherm just updated his winter forecast. Not many changes, but though some might be interested. 

More persistence of same pattern 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I actually thought it was a little bit worse than his first take, lol. 

[weathertree4u]

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I actually thought it was a little bit worse than his first take, lol. 

Lol goodness well eventually this multi year winter crap pattern will break, i assume. 

[nrgjeff]

I'm breaking up with Himawari.

On 1/13/2020 at 1:55 PM, nrgjeff said:

1. I want to make love to the Himawari satellite, literally the robot up in space. All kinds of convection in the Modoki El Nino zone. Just beautiful if you want some winter down here.

2. MJO index is also going into cold phases. Nice when it lines up with satellite photos.

That fell apart horribly in just a few days. What did the models miss? I wonder if a Southern hemisphere tropical cyclone threw off things earlier. 

Massive flare up of convection in the Modoki zone (Mon/Tue) ended up drifting south of the Equator and a topical cyclone developed. Early week models assumed sustained that convection, with or without a TC. The TC takes most of the energy south with it. North of the equator convection has calmed down.

Indonesia and Malaysia have some new thunderstorms, though mostly diurnal. Anyway it is not a favorable area for SE cold. Models want to flare up the Indian ocean soon, with a ridge over South China in several days, which is not helpful for us either.

Massive cold fail is a disappointment. However the US southern stream remains active. Next week is cold/dry. Models still show a cuter Jan 24-25. After that Ensembles are all over the place with storm tracks. Even the warm EPS has a few lows south, but yeah cutters too. One just hopes for south with cold air in place (from somewhere, lol).

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Next week is cold/dry

I'm actually kinda happy it is at least going to be cold for a bit. When I bought my house in Morgan County the previous owner left me like a year's worth of fire wood and I'd like to use it before the termites come out!

[TellicoWx]

The 6z GEFS broke towards the EPS over night, but gets there more slowly.  There outcome is a trough in the west/southwest.  The GEPS is the loan outlier now of global ensembles with a nice eastern trough throughout much of its run.  We will see where the MJO is today.  
Mr, Kevin. the QBO is quite dependent on solar phases and possibly ENSO state.  Joe D'Aleo has a graphic(regarding the QBO and solar phase) out there along with some research that he has shared by others.  For example, a strongly positive(or westerly) QBO could actually help us during a solar maximum.  That produces a western ridge.  The QBO could benefit us now if it goes negative and holds.  As long as it doesn't stall, it is in our favor.  A descending QBO in the negative phase usually correlates to an eastern trough with a slight SER if the solar connection research is correct.  In general, find your favorite winters and during many of them you will find the QBO negative at 30mb.  As for the lag time that it takes?  Tough to know.  With it being in a phase change, I have a tendency to think it is not much of a driver at this point at all.  I do think at some point during later winter or early spring, we might find ourselves with a mix of A and C if it finally kicks-in as a driver.  I do think there is much to learn about the QBO.  Right now, the MJO and a warm Pacific basin are driving this bus.

That analog map has been debunked and is misleading (it's based off outdated research)..research in the last couple years (and ongoing) has shown the QBO is more complex than original research showed. Naval Research Academy, a team of researchers in Singapore, and a couple other teams spread around the global have started presenting their findings at the AMS Conferences. Basic terms is the QBO is broken into 4 categories (with an additional category for those 4). It ties the solar activities effects on the troposphere (which the QBO winds transports down to the ocean surface), east/west winds (and their configuration) basically acts as a shear component to different areas along the MJO...its basically the "top down" approach and begins tying together everything in the atmosphere. The future inclusion of Ocean Modeling into the GFS should include the "top down" method and hopefully will be a major improvement to LR forecasting. The current QBO setup favors capping in the MJO "cold phases" and shear enhancement into the MC.

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[PowellVolz]

It’s funny reading about all these anomalies and teleconnectors needed for us to get in position for a good snow but growing up, (I’m 45) all we looked for was a L pressure tracking across the GOM coast and we knew we were in business.


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro somehow (and I don't have a clue how given it's recent runs) manages to create a Miller B that almost gets it done for higher elevations.

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

It’s funny reading about all these anomalies and teleconnectors needed for us to get in position for a good snow but growing up, (I’m 45) all we looked for was a L pressure tracking across the GOM coast and we knew we were in business.


.

LOL...I was just commenting at how many acronyms have to be correct now.  And I think sometimes it is easy to overthink things for sure.  I am a purist in that regard.  Give me a slp over Louisiana and track it inside Hatteras.  

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro somehow (and I don't have a clue how given it's recent runs) manages to create a Miller B that almost gets it done for higher elevations.

Yep, super close just prior to 200.  Similar to what Powell just talked about ironically!

[John1122]

9 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

It’s funny reading about all these anomalies and teleconnectors needed for us to get in position for a good snow but growing up, (I’m 45) all we looked for was a L pressure tracking across the GOM coast and we knew we were in business.


.

We simply lived in a colder environment then for whatever reason. It was the same environment that made me excited when Margie Ison said "Alberta Clipper'. That meant 3-5 inches of snow and no school.  Now clippers are rare, half the time they produce WAA and rain or nothing here and mainly produce snow over the upper midwest and Ohio Valley. One thing about it after this year, the 1991-2020 30 year normals will make it harder to be AN temp wise and BN snow wise.

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

That analog map has been debunked and is misleading (it's based off outdated research)..research in the last couple years (and ongoing) has shown the QBO is more complex than original research showed. Naval Research Academy, a team of researchers in Singapore, and a couple other teams spread around the global have started presenting their findings at the AMS Conferences. Basic terms is the QBO is broken into 4 categories (with an additional category for those 4). It ties the solar activities effects on the troposphere (which the QBO winds transports down to the ocean surface), east/west winds (and their configuration) basically acts as a shear component to different areas along the MJO...its basically the "top down" approach and begins tying together everything in the atmosphere. The future inclusion of Ocean Modeling into the GFS should include the "top down" method and hopefully will be a major improvement to LR forecasting. The current QBO setup favors capping in the MJO "cold phases" and shear enhancement into the MC.

Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk
 

That definitely does not fit what I have read.  Some of what I have read comes from isotherm's forecasts and from Joe D'Aleo.  I do understand the four categories.  I have read other mets on other subforums that have stated that a transitional QBO(falling) into negative results in blocking...the actual trajectory is what matters.  If you have a link to share that debunks that, I would be glad to read it.  I don't doubt the QBO is complex and has many unknowns. One of the things I have read is that it in combination with a La Nina it is a strong cold indicator in the East.  However, once one adds in solar, enso, and trajectory as variables...not many analogs to begin with.  I do know this, many of our great winters have negative QBOs.   Not all, but many.  I actually don't agree that the QBO falling in negative territory is a hindrance.  It may very well be too weak at this point in relation to an MJO that has been on steroids during westerly and easterly QBO phases with the same result - a warm East coast winter.  But I don't think this particular winter will prove or disprove that as the MJO with warm waters west of the dateline is going to be a problem no matter what the phase.  If we do happen to see some blocking, I don't think that will be coincidental.  

[Carvers Gap]

In E TN, not so much the Plateau or middle/west TN, we need blocking in the Atlantic.  A lot of our snow comes from coastals.  I think for that past 30 years, the pattern has been very dependent on the Pacific.  The Pac drives the bus and it going to for a few more years.  It is upstream as well.  When it is bad, no winter.  That coincides with AMO phase.  When it is negative, we get plenty of Atlantic blocking.  I was in my teens when the AMO flipped positive.  But you could tell(without ever knowing that index) that winter changed drastically around 1988 and 89.  That is when it flipped.  I remember telling my parents that cold winters were over.  They looked at my like I was crazy.  Winters had been cold their entire lives.  But I knew that something had changed, because the cold just wasn't there.  In E TN, a -NAO is a big driver.  If I remember correctly, someone said seven of the last eight winters have seen positive NAOs.  Some of those winters have been decent, but when the Pacific is bad...non-winter are experienced like we are having so far.  The -NAO increased the number of good winters because it could pick up the slack when the Pac was hostile.  Right now, we have basically one ocean that an help us and not two.  This winter so far is a prime example.  Those surface lows in the GOM are far more common and much stronger during -AMOs.  Would be interesting to get some data on the occurrence of Gulf lows since the AMO went positive.  It makes sense, that Atlantic block is what forces those lows northeast.  No AMO and that block is rarer and those perfect tracks rarer.  So, I am not really one who buys the whole temp deal...I think the actual track is different because of the AMO cycle.  Get that track back, and snow will be more common in E TN.  

[Carvers Gap]

Surface tracks from Louisiana just have better results in NE TN.  Coastal storms here drive up snow totals.  And that is a different outcome for those 150 miles to my west.  My area does not benefit from upslope, unless the upslope comes from the southeast on a coastal.  JC gets upslope.  My areas does not.  The lack of a -NAO does not surprise me due to the AMO phase.  Problem is, tough to prove anything until that -AMO pops again.  Personally, I think the Pacific needs an ENSO phase to shake up the gradient a bit.  Preferably, it would be a strong La Nina.  Yeah, that would waste a winter but would cool the SSTs considerably and potential reset the Pacific by ridding it of amped flow.  I suspect that is coming soon.  If one looks at both -AMOs and -QBOS...those are really good indicators(not by themselves) of potential for strong blocking.