Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 26 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: I like that look - what kind of temps would that translate to? Not sure, weathermodels only has anomaly maps on the EPS, no EPS mean temp. I know the 6z GFS looked rough but A, it is the flip flop model and B, the old GEFS looked a lot better: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 hours ago, weathertree4u said: Will answer my own question - yes - same pattern seems to be persisting at the end of the run - low up to the Great Lakes, cool down, warm up, low up to the Great Lakes, rinse and repeat all thanks to that confounded SER Ensembles will lead the way right now. They are stone cold. Bout as cold as one can get them at this range. SER is nowhere to be be seen after the 20th. Pretty incredible cold being modeled on the ensembles. The operationals are going to be all over the place. My general rule is that the colder the air on the way, the more they(operationals) jump around. I am probably more encouraged this AM that I have been all week. Considering the warmth this week followed by the cold upcoming, it is conceivable that we could see 50-60 degree changes in high temps over the next two weeks. Depending on the extremes of warm and cold...could be even bigger. The snow means looks solid for this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The 0z Euro operational has the trough. Good sign as that is its second run showing that. The GFS will struggle right now. It will generally give a heads up on a change at LR, but it is going to bounce around wildly right now as is other operational stuff. Think of the stuff they are juggling or about to juggle...SOI is going to crash once that cyclone leaves that area. MJO is still evolving. QBO is dropping. Blocking is showing up. Changing wavelengths as we near spring. Big pattern flip being modeled. Potential PV split. Going to be a mess for several days. The key right now is to get the pattern right...and then drill down from there. Way to far out there to nail specifics. Again, roll with ensembles right now. The EPS has been steady. The GEFS seems to get colder with each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 And the pattern will highly likely have cold descending into the Plains or front range. We don’t want the cold coming straight off the Lakes as the trough would likely be too far to the East with that pattern. The catch with cold coming from our northwest is that warmups will likely happen in between fronts. The great thing with the blocks up top is that cutters could eventually be blocked. Bad thing to quote either PSU or Chill...blocking will make for fewer chances as the pattern slows but increase the chance for big storms. Though sometimes blocking can lead to higher frequency and strength. Biggest thing is confluence would be over this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 0z Euro operational has the trough. Good sign as that is its second run showing that. The GFS will struggle right now. It will generally give a heads up on a change at LR, but it is going to bounce around wildly right now as is other operational stuff. Think of the stuff they are juggling or about to juggle...SOI is going to crash once that cyclone leaves that area. MJO is still evolving. QBO is dropping. Blocking is showing up. Changing wavelengths as we near spring. Big pattern flip being modeled. Potential PV split. Going to be a mess for several days. The key right now is to get the pattern right...and then drill down from there. Way to far out there to nail specifics. Again, roll with ensembles right now. The EPS has been steady. The GEFS seems to get colder with each run. Now you say stone cold - are we talking cold like several days in the 30's or cold like likely going negative for a few nights? I know if we get snow on the ground, lows, at least seem to me like, not to be modeled correctly. All of this may be for nothing anyway if we all blow away this morning, wow is it howling out there where I am at and the line is still about an hour away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, weathertree4u said: Now you say stone cold - are we talking cold like several days in the 30's or cold like likely going negative for a few nights? I know if we get snow on the ground, lows, at least seem to me like, not to be modeled correctly. All of this may be for nothing anyway if we all blow away this morning, wow is it howling out there where I am at and the line is still about an hour away. Pretty much as cold as ensembles can get. Remember ensembles will have warm members included. As we get closer and it is more obvious that potential warmth is off the table, the warm ensemble members will slowly be phased out and the mean gets even colder. Some of these ensemble model runs have it 10-15+F below normal outside of d10. Now, if those have warm ensemble members included...they could verify colder. If we get snow on the ground in this pattern here and in the Midwest, below zero is a possibility. The pattern being modeled could set record lows, but that is getting head of myself big time. Right now, just wanting to make sure we have the pattern correct. I like where it is headed but obviously no guarantees. Last winter will leave me jaded for some time... How much wind are you all getting? I have to drive in this mess today. Should be loads of fun! LOL. Worthy cause though. Wild, wild few weeks of weather coming up I think. Amazing how many good weather patterns were preceded by severe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 We are about to the point that I am going to be pulled between sleeping and staying up to see what we might be tracking on 0z models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Pretty much as cold as ensembles can get. Remember ensembles will have warm members included. As we get closer and it is more obvious that potential warmth is off the table, the warm ensemble members will slowly be phased out and the mean gets even colder. Some of these ensemble model runs have it 10-15+F below normal outside of d10. Now, if those have warm ensemble members included...they could verify colder. If we get snow on the ground in this pattern here and in the Midwest, below zero is a possibility. The pattern being modeled could set record lows, but that is getting head of myself big time. Right now, just wanting to make sure we have the pattern correct. I like where it is headed but obviously no guarantees. Last winter will leave me jaded for some time... How much wind are you all getting? I have to drive in this mess today. Should be loads of fun! LOL. Worthy cause though. Wild, wild few weeks of weather coming up I think. Amazing how many good weather patterns were preceded by severe. North of Nashville here and seem to be getting gusts I would guess by the way things are blowing around and the sound of around 40 - 45 mph or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 11, 2020 Author Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: How much wind are you all getting? I have to drive in this mess today. Should be loads of fun! LOL. Worthy cause though. Wild, wild few weeks of weather coming up I think. Amazing how many good weather patterns were preceded by severe. 60-70 mph when the front end of the system came through this morning. Pretty nasty front line honestly. Don’t know how well it will stay together as it crosses the state though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, AMZ8990 said: 60-70 mph when the front end of the system came through this morning. Pretty nasty front line honestly. Don’t know how well it will stay together as it crosses the state though. Yea, seems like it is picking up speed as it is approaching Nashville, that is about as red as you can get on the radar! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 GFS didn't look that great, but the GEFS looks pretty juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Ensembles will lead the way right now. They are stone cold. Bout as cold as one can get them at this range. SER is nowhere to be be seen after the 20th. Pretty incredible cold being modeled on the ensembles. The operationals are going to be all over the place. My general rule is that the colder the air on the way, the more they(operationals) jump around. I am probably more encouraged this AM that I have been all week. Considering the warmth this week followed by the cold upcoming, it is conceivable that we could see 50-60 degree changes in high temps over the next two weeks. Depending on the extremes of warm and cold...could be even bigger. The snow means looks solid for this range. Amazing how cold the GEFS is compared to the GFS,i'm wondering if the last upgrade of the GEFS helped the thermals with the hi-res upgrade?GEFS use to have a warm bias,not to oftern you see it that cold,especiallly here in the long range.But then again,i might have forgotten what cold is anymore..lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Amazing how cold the GEFS is compared to the GFS,i'm wondering if the last upgrade of the GEFS helped the thermals with the hi-res upgrade?GEFS use to have a warm bias,not to oftern you see it that cold,especiallly here in the long range.But then again,i might have forgotten what cold is anymore..lol I wasn’t aware the GEFS had been upgraded yet. I thought the upgrade was scheduled for springtime. I could have missed something though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 17 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: I wasn’t aware the GEFS had been upgraded yet. I thought the upgrade was scheduled for springtime. I could have missed something though.... That's the GFS upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 28 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: That's the GFS upcoming So there is a second upgrade coming for the GFS? The GFS was just upgraded in June of 2019 to a new dynamical core (FV3). I can’t find anything about the GEFS being upgraded, but i am still looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Euro builds a block in the Atlantic but a giant Rockies ridge and N Pacific trough. Not great look for us, better for the areas east of the Apps. Far far perfer a better Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 @tnweathernut dallen or some similar handle in the MA forum had an update on the GEFS a few weeks ago. I think it is going to be upgraded in the fall to a larger ensemble # spread with an updated core. On a phone right now and can’t look for it, but that poster doesn’t post a ton so you may be able to find it. I think that person works on the models for NOAA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, John1122 said: Euro builds a block in the Atlantic but a giant Rockies ridge and N Pacific trough. Not great look for us, better for the areas east of the Apps. Far far perfer a better Pacific. Agree. The better position for a ridge needs to be near the coast, not the Rockies. LR will move around some, and we appear to be headed in a better direction.......time will tell how the LR looks will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 You definite want to keep the GEFS look.Even tho it loses the -NAO it keeps the -EPO with a +PNA starting up still around the 19th-20th,least it's showing consistency 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 @tnweathernut Found it: " .. am at the AGU meeting this week and I "snuck out" of my session to hear a talk on the Unified Forecasting System: Some highlights: Version 15.1 of the GFS officially became operational on June 12th of this year. It has a 13 km horizontal resolution and 64 layers. Data are assimilated at a 25 km resolution. Version 14 was retired on September 30. A minor change was made to the GFS in early November. It is now assimilating additional data sets including information from GOES-17. Version 12 of the GEFS is scheduled to become operational in August 2020. It will have the same dynamical core as version 15 of the GFS and its resolution will increase from 40- to 25-km and will include 31 members as opposed to the current 21. The system will be run 4 times per day with the 00 UT run being 35 days in length and the other runs 16 days in length. Apparently, the ensemble system has skill out to 10.4 days versus 9.8 for the current system with 2-3 hours of the additional skill due to the additional ensemble members. The next version of the GFS (version 16) is scheduled to become operational in January 2021. It is in the pre-operational stage now but has been frozen. It should have 127 levels compared to the current 64 and has bias fixes including (hopefully) one for the lower tropospheric cold -bias. Not sure what the fix is. Version 13 of the GEFS is scheduled to become operational in FY2023. It should be a "fully" coupled system that includes an ocean model, a wave model, an aerosol model etc. " 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: @tnweathernut Found it: " .. am at the AGU meeting this week and I "snuck out" of my session to hear a talk on the Unified Forecasting System: Some highlights: Version 15.1 of the GFS officially became operational on June 12th of this year. It has a 13 km horizontal resolution and 64 layers. Data are assimilated at a 25 km resolution. Version 14 was retired on September 30. A minor change was made to the GFS in early November. It is now assimilating additional data sets including information from GOES-17. Version 12 of the GEFS is scheduled to become operational in August 2020. It will have the same dynamical core as version 15 of the GFS and its resolution will increase from 40- to 25-km and will include 31 members as opposed to the current 21. The system will be run 4 times per day with the 00 UT run being 35 days in length and the other runs 16 days in length. Apparently, the ensemble system has skill out to 10.4 days versus 9.8 for the current system with 2-3 hours of the additional skill due to the additional ensemble members. The next version of the GFS (version 16) is scheduled to become operational in January 2021. It is in the pre-operational stage now but has been frozen. It should have 127 levels compared to the current 64 and has bias fixes including (hopefully) one for the lower tropospheric cold -bias. Not sure what the fix is. Version 13 of the GEFS is scheduled to become operational in FY2023. It should be a "fully" coupled system that includes an ocean model, a wave model, an aerosol model etc. " Your search skills are superior to mine. Thanks!! That’s similar to what I thought I remembered, but I thought (incorrectly) the GEFS upgrade was set for spring this year , not August..... Will be nice to get the ensemble upgraded like the OP. Also good to see improvement will continue for 2021 & 2023. That said, I’m not sure how much value the GEFS will have at 0z, running out to 35 days. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Its still weak and maybe to late,but a definite QBO switch upcoming 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 GFS keeps the pattern change but doesn't do us any favors regarding winter precip really. Gets cold, warms up and rains, gets cold. I believe Dec 1983 was the ultimate for that. We would get below 0 cold, warm up and rain, then go below 0 again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 GEFS still has some good potential for a lot of us. 1.5 inch mean all the way back to Memphis and 2 in Northern Alabama is pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 The Euro Ensemble isn't quite what the GEFS is but its not terribly far off on snowfall output. The Euro OP popped a big East based -NAO. Not the best look for here compared to a west based NAO but better for the western Valley than the Eastern. The midwest does best in east based NAO events. Cutters or Apps runners or Bs are more favored. The Euro has a Rockies ridge that manages to keep the entire SE cold. Normally the Apps and East have AN temps with the east based NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 So, is the 06Z finally sniffing out the LR pattern or do we think it is a blip? Looks like we get the cold in good and start throwing systems into the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: So, is the 06Z finally sniffing out the LR pattern or do we think it is a blip? Looks like we get the cold in good and start throwing systems into the base of the trough. Who knows. It changes every run. Right now we need to get the cold and its probably going to take at least one more cutter to get there. Once the pattern change comes into its own hopefully the potential of the pattern shown on the ensembles bears fruit. That 6z run did end on one heck of a cliffhanger. if it went to 400 we'd either have seen a fantasy foot across the valley or a painful cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Just now, John1122 said: Who knows. It changes every run. Right now we need to get the cold and its probably going to take at least one more cutter to get there. Once the pattern change comes into its own hopefully the potential of the pattern shown on the ensembles bears fruit. That 6z run did end on one heck of a cliffhanger. if it went to 400 we'd either have seen a fantasy foot across the valley or a painful cutter. Yea, noticed that too and like you, realize that the noon run will be different, the GEFS is amazing stable with the tune it is singing regarding the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 It is all about the pattern right now. With the switch upcoming, modeling is going to be all over the place. RMM1 MJO today looks to go higher into phase 7 which might mean it makes it into 8. I always contend to beware of modeling that locks features into place on ensembles. Within that pattern there will be variation. Basically an ensemble is depicting where the features will be most of the time. Still looks like a trough will be in the East. Still looks like waves of cold. Still plenty of energy in the pattern. If one wanted to go fishing for trouble, maybe we can say modeling is pushing back the actually full blown trough. But...the Euro operational actually has it and has had for a few days. I think we are just now getting some blurry looks at what the pattern could be. The QBO looks to be right on schedule. The question will be how strongly it can go negative before winter is over. Good thing is that it is still dropping as of its December reading. If there is anything we learned (or were reminded of...) from this first half of winter it is how hard it is to "get the pattern back" once the pattern in Alaska goes extreme. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 12z GEFS remains very, very cold with the onset of the pattern at 156 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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