Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Could be that the Euro also has a cutter right after the first cold shot which sort of creates a ridge in front of it. I will have to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Yep, that is the reason the Euro seems to delay the cold. It is not so much a delay in the pattern as it cuts a piece of energy through the Plains where the CMC and GFS shunt it more eastward and allow it to cut into the Ohio Valley. The GFS/CMC bury the trough in the East after the first storm where the Euro does it after the second. So, there is about a 24-48 hour difference in their pattern evolutions. Not unexpected at this range and both of those solutions will likely change some at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 EPS looking pretty good once again. Will post when it finishes running. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Beautiful run of the EPS. I was wondering what it was doing early on. As tough as it is to see the pattern pushed back about 48 hours, the more that the trough holds energy back...the deeper the ensuing trough. So that little piece that gets spit out around Jan16/17...the weaker it is and the stronger the trough that dumps with that second trough. Really nice run. Better put that one in slow motion, Holston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12z Euro looks much improved. Sends the first shot of seasonal to cool through the East around Jan16/17. It is more muted than say the CMC/GFS...and then places the trough in the East by d10. It is high possible or even likely that the Euro is not amplifying the first wave enough. If so, the trough dumps then and not two days later. Either way...pay me now or pay me later scenario in terms of cold depiction. I think the models are "seeing" the pattern change, but are doing the usual "too quick". If we enter 7 on the MJO at a decent amp (so it can be a primary driver), then I honestly think the change will be closer to the 23-25. We could definitely see some colder temps between now and then, but it will be based off system influence...rather than a true pattern shift.Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Looks like there might even be some confluence over NE: 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 11 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: I think the models are "seeing" the pattern change, but are doing the usual "too quick". If we enter 7 on the MJO at a decent amp (so it can be a primary driver), then I honestly think the change will be closer to the 23-25. We could definitely see some colder temps between now and then, but it will be based off system influence...rather than a true pattern shift. Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk Just glad to see a shakeup being consistently modeled. I have seen the current warm pattern(during past winters) lock-in for most of winter. Right now, I could make a good argument that the models are not quick enough. But I can also see the scenario where they are a bit slow. Now, if the shakeup were to continue to stall in modeling...that would be a red flag. Oddly, the ensembles are quicker than the operational runs today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yep, that is the reason the Euro seems to delay the cold. It is not so much a delay in the pattern as it cuts a piece of energy through the Plains where the CMC and GFS shunt it more eastward and allow it to cut into the Ohio Valley. The GFS/CMC bury the trough in the East after the first storm where the Euro does it after the second. So, there is about a 24-48 hour difference in their pattern evolutions. Not unexpected at this range and both of those solutions will likely change some at this range. Probably Euro's bias of holding energy back at play causing the cut. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 44 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Probably Euro's bias of holding energy back at play causing the cut. Might be. I hadn't thought about it. Normally it does that in the Southwest and it sort of digs a bit much. In this case, it digs a bit much in the Northwest. However, the GEFS at 12z was sort of slow as well. So, @TellicoWx might be right about the models rushing things. However, if we get to the EPS solution that it has had for two straight afternoons...I am willing to wait. Also, my last post should have read...But I can also see where models might be a bit too fast. It wouldn't take much to place the trough in the East earlier than later. That first piece of energy on Jan 16/17 would just need to slide over the ridge and dig. However, if it doesn't and the ridge behind it rolls through...the next trough should do the trick. I like seeing these really deep troughs, because most troughs have been shallower than modeled at verification. I think the chances of a really good storm track after the 20th are growing. I think all operational have the pattern change within d10 now. Pattern changes are always a bear. Sometimes they can speed up and sometimes they take their time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I think to echo the MA forum...encouraging to see AN heights showing up in good places at high latitudes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The MJO takes a trip from 7 to 8 at pretty high amplitude on the GEFS, 7 into the 8 cod on the Euro. CPC notes that the GEFS is usually too amped in the western Pacific, the Euro too weak, so says to split the difference, which would be low amplitude 7-8. If we can have a stocked up Canada with cold, that should produce fireworks of the wintry variety. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 38 minutes ago, John1122 said: The MJO takes a trip from 7 to 8 at pretty high amplitude on the GEFS, 7 into the 8 cod on the Euro. CPC notes that the GEFS is usually too amped in the western Pacific, the Euro too weak, so says to split the difference, which would be low amplitude 7-8. If we can have a stocked up Canada with cold, that should produce fireworks of the wintry variety. Any mention of a re-load of the MJO into cold phases? Also, the MJO when it hits February...some of those warm phases aren't as warm are they? In other words, some chance that this pattern might have a duration of 2.5-4 weeks...or get us to the point we are pretty much sick of it! LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I think the GFS is about to show a monster storm late in the run. I am putting you back in the main thread. LOL. The 18z GFS appears to have massive blocking and would actually be a pretty good storm pattern. Holston and anyone else, care to comment. Banana high over the top, STJ is active, cold trapped under that high...ingredients are there for more than one big storm in the East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Well, look at what I posted after that, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 In my defense, it was close, lol: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: In my defense, it was close, lol: There should be a parade of storms. Energy coming into the West coast right after that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Even the Ensemble mean likes that idea of a storm late in the run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Let's just hope it doesn't suppress everything to the south. I always worry about that when the vodka cold comes down. First things first though, we need to have the cold for the possibility of snow and I would take my chances with suppression over the torch we have had the past month any day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 When ever you see these systems coming out of East China,East China Sea, Yellow Sea and South Korea this is a juicy pattern for the Valley.If everything teleconnects correctly we can score with this pattern or we can get the boats ready.It's beeen awhile since we seen this look in these parts.Look for an active pattern anyways upcoming 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The GFS has thrown us all a bone in the past 24-36 hours. The 18z even bullseyes Chattanooga. Plenty of moisture likely, plenty of cold possible. The eternal struggle in the area is getting them to meet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Hopefully by Sunday or so, the models should have ingested the pattern change and we should, correct me if mistaken, some continuity with possible storms over the next few weeks; overall, I like the area's chances going forward! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Teleconnections are going to start flipping around the 19-20th,about every model shows this.We will seemingly start to get back to a +PNA/-EPO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 You can get better than those indices but not much better and its really rare. We can definitely work with a neutral NAO with the EPO and PNA working for us. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Still cold but not as cold on the 00z GFS. Active southern stream too, about all you can hope for in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Pretty good snow mean again on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Good overall model agreement overnight regarding the pattern change. Ya'll stay safe in the storms today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Good overall model agreement overnight regarding the pattern change. Ya'll stay safe in the storms today. I was just going to post something about those! Looks like the cold is growing ever more muted - on the GFS anyway - with each model run - seems like there was or has been this issue of the cold being over-modeled in the long range. Am I just seeing things or is this it just the GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 15 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: I was just going to post something about those! Looks like the cold is growing ever more muted - on the GFS anyway - with each model run - seems like there was or has been this issue of the cold being over-modeled in the long range. Am I just seeing things or is this it just the GFS? Will answer my own question - yes - same pattern seems to be persisting at the end of the run - low up to the Great Lakes, cool down, warm up, low up to the Great Lakes, rinse and repeat all thanks to that confounded SER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The EPS still looking good, if not better for the dreaded 0z run: I would say even the Euro OP looked the best at the end of the run it has yet. If we reel this in, we are going to have to deal with a few cutters first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The EPS still looking good, if not better for the dreaded 0z run: I would say even the Euro OP looked the best at the end of the run it has yet. If we reel this in, we are going to have to deal with a few cutters first. I like that look - what kind of temps would that translate to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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