ShawnEastTN Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 I love Wyoming so many different landscapes. The winds there can be seriously incredible. I-80 is notorious in that state especially from Rawlins east to Cheyenne for tractor trailers, RVs, and campers and other trailers being blown over. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Weeklies say goodbye to the heat after this next 7 days or so. After that it's BN to N for the rest of the run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 And the Weeklies derived from a "warm" run compared to this afternoon. If they had been derived from this afternoon, would have likely been frigid. The morning run allowed the ridge to push into the mid-section unlike this afternoon's run. The 18z GFS was straight up frigid! John, really pulling for the cold November correlation to win the rest of winter. Looks like it has a fighting chance! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 18z GEFS is basically on board by the end of its run. Trough still isn't deep enough I don't think...but the EPO ridge is massive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 The GEFS has been slowly moving to the EPS...that is pretty much a total cave right there at 18z. Looks like right now that we have global ensembles and the GFS operational on board. The Euro operational should come on board by tomorrow afternoon I would think. Big moves. It is my hope that our new(er) folks get to see a legit pattern flip during a Nino winter. They are a sight to behold when they actually occur. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Break out the vodka. This is noon/1pm temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 This was shared in the MA forum. Very good look at the MJO progression from today's modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, Carvers Gap said: This was shared in the MA forum. Very good look at the MJO progression from today's modeling. It's speeding up through 4-5. Going high into 7 has a high correlation to 8-1. Lots of SE winter storms happen in 7 and 8. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 It's speeding up through 4-5. Going high into 7 has a high correlation to 8-1. Lots of SE winter storms happen in 7 and 8. That's the progression we need, so far everything is lining up fairly well with the BN NOV, AN DEC years I mentioned before Christmas. Most of those winters had a 2-3 week span from late Jan into first half of Feb. Hopefully when (if) it flips, the cold doesn't completely shutdown or suppress the active STJ.Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Was kicking around the likelihood of STJ getting shut down today with someone. Never say never but...I think the STJ is going to really attack the base of any trough. This is why people like weak Nino years. Plenty of disturbances working along whatever boundary sets up. I would probably be more worried about WAA problems. My guess is the boundary sets up over the Upper South. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 We just dont want to see the mjo reemerge into the maritime continent later on because those aren't cold phases lol. Imo the AAM trending positive could help us as well. At least HM believes it will. Trying to get a favorable winter storm pattern when it gets cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 00z GFS is showing the negative side of massive blocking in the valley. Gulf coast areas see frozen while we are cold and dryish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The GFS must have ran off EPS member 50. Buries Plateau and east. Unfortunately high and dry for the western areas for the most part. Not that its likely to play out as modeled. But lots of cold, storm signals abound and massive Pacific blocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Goodness. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Kuchera through the end of the GFS is just monster to crusher over 50 miles east to west. Looks like maybe an inch in Nashville but 10 in Cookeville. probably 4 or 5 in Murfreesboro. Just west of Nashville a dusting or bare ground. Eastern areas 12+, even near 10 in Chattanooga, 6-8 over alot of Alabama, even 12ish towards Atlanta that run. About 5 runs in a row with various areas getting major winter weather but with precip and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Of course the Euro throws a turd in the punch bowl. Ugly Pacific. None of the blocking the GFS/GGEM shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 EPS still looks pretty good though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The 0z Euro op does not agree with the EPS but is indeed not pretty. Again, this winter if things go badly on a model run, especially the Euro, it will be the 0z run. The Wednesday(edit) night it almost put the ridge in the West only to move to a great solution at 12z. Same deal the night before. The 0z Euro op is now odd man out. It can and does score coups from when it is on its own though. So, the saga continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 And when I say odd man out....all three global ensembles have flipped, including its own ensemble. All other global operationals have flipped. If it wins against all of that...it has proven its superiority beyond a shadow of a doubt and has re-earned its title as king. But until it flips, I would not put my chips in the cold basket just yet. I have seen the Euro OP take on all comers and win multiple times. But it is really a far outlier right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I think what we are going to see is a repetitive pattern of cold being dominant when present, pushing the SER down, only to have the SER bounce right back once the cold shot is through. I suspect the changing wavelengths of this upcoming spring are likely about to shake-up the base pattern. So, I think this is a battle of cold vs the SER. In the forum area, we will be right on the battle line. If you want a shot at big snow, that is the place to be. If you want a shot at sustained winter weather for weeks on end, probably not going to happen as that is not really the Nino calling card. Keep the big highs coming along with an active STJ, and we have a shot and maybe more than once. I think modeling has shown the options that we have fairly clearly. One option is that WAA pushes toward the Ohio Valley and we get rain. I suspect that will be the base pattern. However, I think a second storm track will be big highs pressing cold southward(thus squashing the SER) and giving the forum area chances at snow. Looks like one window will be from Jan 20-25(maybe earlier if the GFS is correct...good luck there) and maybe another window in early February(edit). Many good and even great winters have had two storm windows that look a lot like that. I think we will battle the SER the rest of winter. However, I think cold pressing southeast due to changing wavelengths, climatology, and a stout EPO ridge will fight the SER. I do think one danger of such a big -EPO is the trough tucking under it...the EPS illustrates that risk nicely. Overall, I still think we are about to see a fairly strong shakeup beginning around Jan16/17. Duration TBD. That said, what the ensembles depict(edit) is about 1,000x better than the pattern we have been in for the past month and a half. Let's see if we can get the Euro OP to flip. It is a tough nut to crack even under the best of circumstances. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 The 12z GFS is a perfect example of why one should never, ever share a foxhole with that model. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GFS is a perfect example of why one should never, ever share a foxhole with that model. LOL. The 6 am run was totally different from previous as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: The 6 am run was totally different from previous as well This run is a complete break in continuity. It is not all bad, just VERY different at multiple latitudes. I suspect this shake-up is going to be a doozy and modeling just can't handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This run is a complete break in continuity. It is not all bad, just VERY different at multiple latitudes. I suspect this shake-up is going to be a doozy and modeling just can't handle it. I agree, at least we will eventually lose this wet pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I don't think it is going to quit raining. I think if anything it gets worse. What is being modeling on the 12z GFS is a split flow pattern with massive blocking at higher latitudes. That means everything gets funneled under that big ridge out West and comes this way. Not sure we could dodge a system if we wanted to with that pattern. That is a big hitter pattern in terms of winter, but I absolutely don't believe it. The progression was wonky. Going to need to see the Euro operational cave before I take one step further with its own ensemble, any other ensemble, and definitely not the GFS. The one think that looks good is the MJO which likely moves into very wintry phases. I suspect right now that no model has the pattern correct. I think right now there is so much changing(PV, MJO, seasons, SOI, QBO), they are juggling plates. I do think we see a major shake-up still. I do think it gets cold. I just don't trust the GFS or its ensemble to get the job done. Once the Euro operational and EPS agree, that is the scenario I am rolling with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 6 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: I agree, at least we will eventually lose this wet pattern I think the rainy pattern is here to stay UNLESS the EPO ridge gets really tall and doesn't allow split flow. That 12z run would require a boat if it verified. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 I think my original(long) post from this AM probably still says it best. Cold shots that have some duration followed by AN heights...wash, rinse, repeat. If we can get heights to build over the top...that would suppress the flow and confluence over this area along with chilly but not oppressively cold temps according to the 12z GFS. Just don't want to see cold getting pushed back like that...that is a dubious trend that we all know to be watchful of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 And the GEFS says not so fast...The 12z run is the coldest run I have seen in a long time. On Pivotal not sure areas of NE TN get above freezing after 204...It only shows 0z and 12z so it probably does go above freezing around 18z(not shown) of some days, but that was frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Keeping score...So both the 12z GFS and CMC are warmer inside of d10. That fits with the 0z Euro operational run overnight. The 12z GEFS is incredibly cold. Got whiplash yet? LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 12z Euro looks much improved. Sends the first shot of seasonal to cool through the East around Jan16/17. It is more muted than say the CMC/GFS...and then places the trough in the East by d10. It is high possible or even likely that the Euro is not amplifying the first wave enough. If so, the trough dumps then and not two days later. Either way...pay me now or pay me later scenario in terms of cold depiction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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