weathertree4u Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, Carvers Gap said: I know right. A warming trend in relation to temps that are already record highs! If there is ever a time for the Euro/EPS to be wrong...about right now would be good timing! The wetness seems to be the common thread through out all of this. Things are still running high here north of Nashville, we need a good 30 days of dry cold weather but I do not see any of that on the horizon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Something I have been watching...the forecast trends at 500 on TropicalTidbits. Pretty interesting. MJO looks less than favorable today(probably shouldn't us the real adjective). The Euro does loop back into the COD after warm phases and then it maybe it tries to go back again? LOL!!! Anyway, if you want some hope...the 12z GFS is serving it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Just now, weathertree4u said: The wetness seems to be the common thread through out all of this. Things are still running high here north of Nashville, we need a good 30 days of dry cold weather but I do not see any of that on the horizon. Yeah. You know it was crazy how dry it got IMBY during September. My yard still has places that are just cooked. Other than that, reasonably good rains. A lot of my fall greens are still alive...kale, turnips, Brussel sprouts, lettuce, and mustard. They were planted in extreme heat, have been snowed on twice, have seen the teens for temps, and 90s. Hardy plants! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 12z EPS control drops an all out trough into the middle third of the country and is heading east at the end of the run. The GFS has done something like this for three straight runs. Makes me think we are going there is more potential for variability than the ensembles project in the LR. It is one of these deals that JB mentioned in his video a few days ago. He state rarely does a cold air mass go straight down the spine of the Rockies. As it heads south it usually cuts west or east of the mountain chain. When you watch these small vortices drop out of AK, about 60% of the time they cut west. But if one cuts east of the Rockies, it spread eastward and deepens the trough. Something to watch. Probably a slam dunk warm wx pattern...but once in a blue moon, a player misses a dunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 If you look at the 500mb 48hr forecast trend maps on the GEFS they show lowering heights over the middle of the country to our area and rising heights generally along the west coast. So while there still may be 500mb anomalies in the places that we don't want them, the trend is for them to be less extreme on subsequent runs as they come closer to reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: If you look at the 500mb 48hr forecast trend maps on the GEFS they show lowering heights over the middle of the country to our area and rising heights generally along the west coast. So while there still may be 500mb anomalies in the places that we don't want them, the trend is for them to be less extreme on subsequent runs as they come closer to reality. What I can't tell is if they are just backing-off what would have been an extreme pattern or if there are some colder solutions working in. I am really pulling for a pattern flip just so some of the new folks can see one go down. Unlikely...but weren't they all when it was darkest? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 This is what I don't buy. Go to Tropical Tidbits. Go to the North Pole view of the 12z GEFS. Switch to 500 heights anomaly. Loop it. See all of the global wave activity until just under d10. Then it is like the brakes are put on the entire northern hemispheric system. It literally freezes. Just does not look realistic. Is it model feedback or do we see the entire hemispheric pattern lock-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 31, 2019 Share Posted December 31, 2019 Glad you mentioned that. The EPS looks that way too. If you run the EPS fast, it sort of looks like it's glitching. Not weathermodels, but the pattern lol. Maybe the whole NWP H5 pattern has reached a point where it can't get any worse and model attempts to project a worsening pattern are about to have a critical error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 I thought i seen this look last year,did some,pretty impressive close with the GOM ATMOSPHERIC RIVER that happened then,this probably wont ever happen it's the GFS long range but some of synoptics are close.. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Serious-Flooding-Threat-Looms-Tennessee-Valley-Week-and-Beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 0z GFS has moved the EPO ridge at 198 to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 It looks like it's working towards a -AO with over the top blocking and it's pushing the vortex south into Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Yeah, much different run...similar to 18z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Probably going to still get a similar outcome as previous runs, but it does have another cold front at 240 and a piece of the PV that broke off and is head into the upper end of the trough in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Eastern ridge replaced with a shallow trough at 258. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Quickly reverts back to an eastern ridge by 270...but that is an extra cold shot. Also would push back the warm-up by a day to the 12th...later than that due to the cold that was discharged. 500 is AN...surface is not yet, but will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 It was going well and the orientation of the high tilts and a trough sprouts under it in the Pac NW. That piece of the PV is dropping towards a good spot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 So, on this run we fight off the ridge out to 300...It is the GFS for sure, but very good run in terms of how important it is to have the cold cross into the front range. It will the spread east. If it cuts west it digs that pocket trough out West. Only need that EPO ridge nudged eastward about 300 miles from 18z and it forced a second shot eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 You'll never get cold locked in the Vallley with an Atmospheric River coming through the BAJAS and a HP along the Aleutian Islands,this still would be a -PNA that's just going to set up some big rains in the Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 It looks like a pattern that's extremely changeable, no sustained torch or cold through mid month. It will be AN but because the AN days will be very much AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just now, John1122 said: It looks like a pattern that's extremely changeable, no sustained torch or cold through mid month. It will be AN but because the AN days will be very much AN. See, that is what is so frustrating with the ensembles. They just stop the entire hemispheric pattern around Jan 10th. The preceding pattern has not been one that is nearly stationary for the entire Western Hemisphere. I think the key is to get that western displaced easter Pac ridge...budged eastward to where its influence is such that cold is at least forced down the front range. I can just about tell if the pattern is going to be seasonal or a torch based on those little vortices spinning south out of Alaska. If there is room between the eastern Pac ridge and the coast, they go there and build a monster ridge here. If they get pushed across the mountains, trough here. Sounds crazy after watching a locked pattern for several weeks, but the pushing back of the eastern ridge in time is probably depending on something as razor sharp as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 The 0z CMC has shifted the eastern Pac ridge east as well. Just takes a minor adjustment to get that cold into the front range and let is spread eastward. Even if the mean pattern is an eastern ridge, periodic cold shots could make the pattern workable or at least not a full torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 The 0z GFS is the way to mute the warm-up. It has done. this four of the last five runs. Needs some support. The 0z GEFS is still locked into a nearly stationary and counter-intuitive stationary hemispheric pattern and give little support to the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: See, that is what is so frustrating with the ensembles. They just stop the entire hemispheric pattern around Jan 10th. The preceding pattern has not been one that is nearly stationary for the entire Western Hemisphere. I think the key is to get that western displaced easter Pac ridge...budged eastward to where its influence is such that cold is at least forced down the front range. I can just about tell if the pattern is going to be seasonal or a torch based on those little vortices spinning south out of Alaska. If there is room between the eastern Pac ridge and the coast, they go there and build a monster ridge here. If they get pushed across the mountains, trough here. Sounds crazy after watching a locked pattern for several weeks, but the pushing back of the eastern ridge in time is probably depending on something as razor sharp as that. If we could get that EPO ridging 600 miles east and get it to orient S to N and get roided up like it does, we would be having below 0 weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 The very end of the GEFS has much AN heights in most of AK with that trough underneath. I suspect that trough would get kicked eastward if real. Keep that eastern pac ridge pushing east as a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Doubt there is a prayer until you at least get rid of the atmospheric river going through the Bahas which is more from the MJO going into the Maritime,we can get cold before then but what's being shown around 10 days,good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Just saying what the GEFS IS SHOWING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Euro holds onto a chance of snow showers around sunday. Probably 1 inch or less most places. After that similar up and down right to the GFS through day 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Son has a gymnastics meet this weekend in Atlanta so i'm sure it will snow here.Euro has maybe a dusting or 0.03 in TYS after the next system Tuesday,basically still cold chasing rain,so sick of the nick and dime crap we see every year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The very end of the GEFS has much AN heights in most of AK with that trough underneath. I suspect that trough would get kicked eastward if real. Keep that eastern pac ridge pushing east as a trend. Something has to get this pattern out of here, like everyone, I would like to see some snow but starting to really get concerned regarding the amount of rainfall being modeled for the area over the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 1, 2020 Share Posted January 1, 2020 Don't know if I've ever seen two pieces of energy from such different places phase nearly overhead. If any of us can get this upper low to pass over head, could be some fun lapse rates and dynamics. Yeah, just saw that Nashville already has flood warnings and advisories in addition to the nearly valley wide flood watches, so that atmospheric river isn't promising: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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