December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[jaxjagman]

iF have that -NAO look you should see lowering heights not rising,i call this run BS 

[John1122]

Not saying the GFS is right but its been verifying better than the GEFS lately, the Euro is still beating both. But even it's only verifying at 35 percent at day 10 at 500mb.

[John1122]

19 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

iF have that -NAO look you should see lowering heights not rising,i call this run BS 

The Ensemble mean will spit out weird looks sometimes when individual members are in different camps. 

[jaxjagman]

Not really sure why this would be a -NAO,the SPV is sitting over Greenland basically

[John1122]

Euro was close to the Canadian. Smashed NE Arkansas and NWTn through Kentucky. Icy for Northern Middle. 

[John1122]

06Z GFS a little faster and a little further south than the Euro/GGEM. Rounds the base of the Apps instead of running west of them. Thumps the Plateau and gives a smaller but still very decent event to other areas along and north of 40. Several cold days in this time frame, lows in the single digits and high in the mid to upper 10s in the deeper snowpack areas.

 

[John1122]

Some big dogs in there on the GEFS through the time frame the Euro/GGEM was showing the event.

[weathertree4u]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Some big dogs in there on the GEFS through the time frame the Euro/GGEM was showing the event.

Looks like there will be something to track - anyone know how reliable the CFS is - it is showing few overnights south of zero near mid month 

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Looks like there will be something to track - anyone know how reliable the CFS is - it is showing few overnights south of zero near mid month 

It's not very skilled for things like that. It's more a broad pattern, longer range model.

[weathertree4u]

Just now, John1122 said:

It's not very skilled for things like that. It's more a broad pattern, longer range model.

So it is representative of the possible long range pattern not necessarily specific events

[John1122]

Just now, weathertree4u said:

So it is representative of the possible long range pattern not necessarily specific events

Yes, it runs out several weeks like the Euro weeklies.  It's resolution is 38km for long leads and 27km like the old GFS in the 10-16 day range. The lower the km the higher the resolution. The Euro for instance, is 9km through 240 hours. The old GFS used to be 27km beyond 240, which is why it switched to 12 hour panels. The new GFS is 13km to the end of the run, which is why it now has 6 hour panels all the way to 384.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is my lone wx nugget this AM...The CFSv2f flipped at the last minute for January on this morning's run.  Take it with a grain of salt as it is often a flavor of the month type model.   Have to watch its trends late.  Might be a blip....might not.  Worth keeping an eye on...The RMM1 MJO is less than favorable, but I still suspect that is not settled. 

 

[raindancewx]

My crazy theory at this point is that 8/16-9/15 resembled December nationally for temps (cold N. Plains/avg NE), 9/16-10/15 resembles what the CFS has for January (cold West/warm East). That would make 10/16-11/15 the likely pattern for February if the CFS isn't completely wrong for January. I'm assuming the 12/28-12/29 panels as a blend are right. So the whole middle of the US would be frigid, including the interior South, in February before a major warm up that last just most of March & April. The months are never going to be exact matches, but the patterns do repeat. All of this will depend on the CFS being right and nothing huge changing in the tropics. But the month to watch is February going by the progression, especially in the absence of the +SOI in December like last year.

Dec had coolness north, warmth elsewhere. 

January - coolness is shown West. Warmth elsewhere. 

Now look at February.

[jaxjagman]

Everyday we see what coud change,at least .The models flip and say,"fooled you again" ...lol/:(

[Carvers Gap]

We are down to our last model now...the CFSv2 is still standing with cold.  It handles the MJO much differently and is a total outlier.  To paraphrase Star Wars...it is our only hope.  The warm trend was a strong one today.  If the MJO strolls through the warm phases(I still have serious doubts about that) as suggested by the ECMWF, spring will be here in a couple of weeks.  I don't think that is true...but that is the implication.  We will have stuff budding out shortly.  Truly feels like a summer evening outside with it being 68F at 8:40PM at night.  

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

We are down to our last model now...the CFSv2 is still standing with cold.  It handles the MJO much differently and is a total outlier.  To paraphrase Star Wars...it is our only hope.  The warm trend was a strong one today.  If the MJO strolls through the warm phases(I still have serious doubts about that) as suggested by the ECMWF, spring will be here in a couple of weeks.  I don't think that is true...but that is the implication.  We will have stuff budding out shortly.  Truly feels like a summer evening outside with it being 68F at 8:40PM at night.  

Right,the CFS and Euro has been consistent with the signal.The Euro wants to get the signal strong into the Maritime.CFS looks quite different and the GEFS today is looking less Euro as it wants to progress the signal faster into the WP.If the Euro is right you and stays amped up you  might give more prudence to the map Raindance shows

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Right,the CFS and Euro has been consistent with the signal.The Euro wants to get the signal strong into the Maritime.CFS looks quite different and the GEFS today is looking less Euro as it wants to progress the signal faster into the WP.If the Euro is right you and stays amped up you  might give more prudence to the map Raindance shows

If I was going to pull a rabbit out of a hat(cold wx pattern from the clutches of a warm one in the LR)...I would begin first by saying that the operationals are not overly in sync with their ensembles.  

[jaxjagman]

8 hours ago, raindancewx said:

My crazy theory at this point is that 8/16-9/15 resembled December nationally for temps (cold N. Plains/avg NE), 9/16-10/15 resembles what the CFS has for January (cold West/warm East). That would make 10/16-11/15 the likely pattern for February if the CFS isn't completely wrong for January. I'm assuming the 12/28-12/29 panels as a blend are right. So the whole middle of the US would be frigid, including the interior South, in February before a major warm up that last just most of March & April. The months are never going to be exact matches, but the patterns do repeat. All of this will depend on the CFS being right and nothing huge changing in the tropics. But the month to watch is February going by the progression, especially in the absence of the +SOI in December like last year.

Dec had coolness north, warmth elsewhere. 

January - coolness is shown West. Warmth elsewhere. 

Now look at February.

If you are right this would give more credence to the Euro being more right with the MJO.I put the closest starting point towards the end of your analogs and this is where the MJO was 11-12at the starting point,definite if you are right this would be into the cold phases later on

[jaxjagman]

9 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

If you are right this would give more credence to the Euro being more right with the MJO.I put the closest starting point towards the end of your analogs and this is where the MJO was 11-12at the starting point,definite if you are right this would be into the cold phases later on

But unless the MJO loses amptitude,you'll never be right with what you show

[jaxjagman]

We really are not going to get any help with the PV it seems.When you have these strong +IOD events you never have a SSWE,1994,1997,2006,only in 2006 which formed a weak ElNino into winter was the only year to have at least a SSW and the ONI was similar to this year.All three of those years were follwed by an LaNina into next winter.I was just looking at Berlin and the PV looks almost stacked from 10hpa to 100hpa,10 days out around the pole

[jaxjagman]

Least most of us might have a chance of snow next weekend,nothing much for Memphis tho :(.It might feel like winter tho..lol

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CHA    LAT=  35.03 LON=  -85.20 ELE=   689

                                            00Z DEC30
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
MON 00Z 30-DEC                  64.7    60.3    15012                    100    
MON 06Z 30-DEC  65.3    59.0    57.8    56.2    26012                    100    
MON 12Z 30-DEC  57.9    46.9    46.7    41.4    25006   0.01    0.00      37    
MON 18Z 30-DEC  50.8    45.6    51.0    32.0    25008   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 00Z 31-DEC  52.2    44.6    44.4    31.4    24006   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 06Z 31-DEC  44.4    39.4    39.3    29.7    25006   0.00    0.00       1    
TUE 12Z 31-DEC  39.3    35.8    35.8    27.7    26006   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 31-DEC  45.6    35.4    45.8    27.5    27007   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 00Z 01-JAN  47.7    40.5    40.3    29.4    25006   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 06Z 01-JAN  40.3    35.9    35.8    28.2    27005   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 12Z 01-JAN  35.8    32.1    32.0    25.8    26004   0.00    0.00       2    
WED 18Z 01-JAN  46.8    31.4    47.0    26.3    27004   0.00    0.00      87    
THU 00Z 02-JAN  49.4    42.7    42.6    30.6    20004   0.00    0.00      98    
THU 06Z 02-JAN  42.6    39.8    40.2    31.2    18005   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 12Z 02-JAN  42.4    39.7    42.3    31.6    17006   0.01    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 02-JAN  43.9    40.2    43.9    43.7    14006   0.25    0.00     100    
FRI 00Z 03-JAN  44.7    43.5    44.3    44.0    16007   1.04    0.00     100    
FRI 06Z 03-JAN  50.5    44.3    49.8    49.1    19005   0.25    0.00     100    
FRI 12Z 03-JAN  52.4    48.8    52.4    52.3    18006   0.22    0.00     100    
FRI 18Z 03-JAN  55.5    52.1    55.5    52.6    19007   0.06    0.00     100    
SAT 00Z 04-JAN  56.9    54.3    54.2    50.0    21008   0.01    0.00      40    
SAT 06Z 04-JAN  54.2    44.9    44.7    39.1    26007   0.02    0.00      70    
SAT 12Z 04-JAN  44.9    40.0    39.9    31.7    24006   0.00    0.00      35    
SAT 18Z 04-JAN  42.5    38.3    41.2    26.7    26014   0.08    0.04      57    
SUN 00Z 05-JAN  41.4    35.1    35.0    19.7    28009   0.01    0.01      35    
SUN 06Z 05-JAN  35.0    31.6    31.5    21.5    27006   0.00    0.00       4    
SUN 12Z 05-JAN  31.5    27.5    27.5    21.1    24004   0.00    0.00       0    
SUN 18Z 05-JAN  43.8    27.3    44.1    23.5    24007   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 00Z 06-JAN  47.9    40.2    40.1    26.7    21006   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 06Z 06-JAN  40.1    35.0    34.9    27.8    21004   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 12Z 06-JAN  35.1    32.4    32.4    27.5    21003   0.00    0.00       0    
MON 18Z 06-JAN  51.5    32.0    51.8    35.0    23004   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 00Z 07-JAN  55.0    48.9    48.8    38.9    30005   0.00    0.00     100    
TUE 06Z 07-JAN  48.8    41.0    40.9    26.3    01006   0.00    0.00      96    
TUE 12Z 07-JAN  40.9    30.2    30.0    17.3    36008   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 07-JAN  38.5    28.1    38.8    13.8    35006   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 00Z 08-JAN  40.8    32.9    32.7    17.7    31006   0.00    0.00       1    
WED 06Z 08-JAN  32.7    30.5    31.7    20.9    30006   0.00    0.00      97    
WED 12Z 08-JAN  31.7    26.2    26.1    18.0    31008   0.00    0.00      53    
WED 18Z 08-JAN  27.7    24.7    27.8    10.6    31009   0.00    0.00      99    
THU 00Z 09-JAN  27.8    24.1    24.0     6.4    32008   0.00    0.00      89    

 

[jaxjagman]

Ill be in Atlanta next weekend,so you can bet your ass off it if you live here,its going to happen..lol

 

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z DEC30 2 M 2 M 2 M SFC SFC 6 HR FROZN TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND QPF PCP CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) (IN) (IN) (PCT) MON 00Z 30-DEC 56.8 56.0 04004 100 MON 06Z 30-DEC 58.8 52.6 52.4 50.0 25011 34 MON 12Z 30-DEC 52.4 45.0 44.8 35.7 24008 0.00 0.00 65 MON 18Z 30-DEC 47.2 42.3 47.4 28.9 24010 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 00Z 31-DEC 49.2 43.9 43.8 27.2 25007 0.00 0.00 11 TUE 06Z 31-DEC 43.8 40.6 41.1 27.7 25007 0.00 0.00 38 TUE 12Z 31-DEC 41.1 35.7 35.9 24.0 26007 0.00 0.00 34 TUE 18Z 31-DEC 44.1 35.5 44.3 26.9 25008 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 01-JAN 45.9 39.9 39.7 27.2 26006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 06Z 01-JAN 39.7 35.3 35.2 26.4 24006 0.00 0.00 0 WED 12Z 01-JAN 35.2 31.1 31.0 25.1 24005 0.00 0.00 14 WED 18Z 01-JAN 47.5 30.4 47.7 26.8 24005 0.00 0.00 70 THU 00Z 02-JAN 50.0 42.6 42.5 29.5 18006 0.00 0.00 96 THU 06Z 02-JAN 42.5 40.5 41.2 29.0 18007 0.00 0.00 97 THU 12Z 02-JAN 44.6 40.8 42.6 36.6 18008 0.04 0.00 100 THU 18Z 02-JAN 46.6 41.1 46.7 46.4 16009 0.21 0.00 100 FRI 00Z 03-JAN 48.4 46.6 47.7 47.3 15005 0.55 0.00 100 FRI 06Z 03-JAN 49.8 47.6 50.0 49.7 17009 0.39 0.00 100 FRI 12Z 03-JAN 53.3 49.9 53.2 52.1 19010 0.20 0.00 99 FRI 18Z 03-JAN 60.0 53.0 60.2 50.5 20013 0.01 0.00 85 SAT 00Z 04-JAN 60.7 51.3 51.1 39.9 25011 0.02 0.00 81 SAT 06Z 04-JAN 51.2 43.5 43.3 31.6 27009 0.00 0.00 92 SAT 12Z 04-JAN 43.3 39.1 39.0 30.7 24007 0.00 0.00 89 SAT 18Z 04-JAN 39.8 38.1 39.7 27.3 27012 0.02 0.01 57 SUN 00Z 05-JAN 39.9 36.2 36.2 21.7 27010 0.02 0.02 96 SUN 06Z 05-JAN 36.2 31.8 31.6 21.3 26006 0.00 0.00 4 SUN 12Z 05-JAN 31.6 28.1 28.1 21.4 21006 0.00 0.00 4 SUN 18Z 05-JAN 45.1 28.1 45.5 22.8 21010 0.00 0.00 0 MON 00Z 06-JAN 49.6 41.8 41.7 27.8 20006 0.00 0.00 0 MON 06Z 06-JAN 41.7 36.9 36.8 28.9 21005 0.00 0.00 0 MON 12Z 06-JAN 36.8 32.9 32.9 29.4 19004 0.00 0.00 1 MON 18Z 06-JAN 49.9 32.4 50.0 36.8 31003 0.00 0.00 2 TUE 00Z 07-JAN 51.4 42.8 42.7 23.8 35008 0.00 0.00 98 TUE 06Z 07-JAN 42.7 32.4 32.2 18.1 35008 0.00 0.00 1 TUE 12Z 07-JAN 32.2 24.6 24.6 17.4 35005 0.00 0.00 0 TUE 18Z 07-JAN 36.2 23.8 36.5 15.7 33002 0.00 0.00 0 WED 00Z 08-JAN 39.0 34.0 33.9 22.1 29005 0.00 0.00 100 WED 06Z 08-JAN 35.1 29.6 29.5 23.7 31007 0.03 0.03 49 WED 12Z 08-JAN 29.5 24.1 24.0 10.5 32011 0.00 0.00 100 WED 18Z 08-JAN 25.1 23.6 25.1 7.0 31009 0.00 0.00 100 THU 00Z 09-JAN 25.4 22.6 22.6 4.4 32007 0.00 0.00 92

 

[John1122]

The Euro has two shots of cold and a clipper that puts some snow in the air for a lot of us and snow on the ground for some of us.  It's downright frigid at the end of its run.  

 

[John1122]

GEFS still saying we should see something in the next 6-10 days with every member having at least something somewhere in the Valley region.

[John1122]

The GEFS mean through 240 is around .75-1 inch in Jonesboro/Tupelo/Memphis/Chattanooga/Huntsville.  2 inches in Nashville/Clarksville/Cookeville/Knoxvile. 3 inches Crossville/Bristol/Tazewell. 4+ in SWVA. As noted by the individual members it's not a case of 5 monster storms and a bunch of blanks, it's more a lot of members showing around 1-4 inches that gives the mean. That mean almost doubles through 384 along areas north of 40 and especially border areas in Kentucky/VA/Northern Tn. So we might have the warmth to deal with now and will probably see it come back strong a few times in the next few weeks, but we should get the cold and we could have some chances to see white ground over that time frame. 

The Euro cold shot towards the end of it's run is the kind that would likely result in snow showers hanging around all day as temps struggle to get out of the mid 20s.

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

The GEFS mean through 240 is around .75-1 inch in Jonesboro/Tupelo/Memphis/Chattanooga/Huntsville.  2 inches in Nashville/Clarksville/Cookeville/Knoxvile. 3 inches Crossville/Bristol/Tazewell. 4+ in SWVA. As noted by the individual members it's not a case of 5 monster storms and a bunch of blanks, it's more a lot of members showing around 1-4 inches that gives the mean. That mean almost doubles through 384 along areas north of 40 and especially border areas in Kentucky/VA/Northern Tn. So we might have the warmth to deal with now and will probably see it come back strong a few times in the next few weeks, but we should get the cold and we could have some chances to see white ground over that time frame. 

The Euro cold shot towards the end of it's run is the kind that would likely result in snow showers hanging around all day as temps struggle to get out of the mid 20s.

All sounds good but seems like with every model run there are models that contradict one another. For example, the 06Z GFS has nashville area back up to 63 01/12/2020, I already have things budding out and or coming up thinking it is Spring!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro already starting to see the convection firing over the Maritime continent as soon as 36 hours:

With all the confusion as to where the MJO actual was, there was a met at 33 and rain who suggested it was in the central Indian Ocean a few days ago. Makes sense then, that it it would now emerge over the MC and that's what most RMM plots have been and continue to show. Crocuses are already coming up here at 1300 - 1400 feet in the plateau. I don't have the heart to look for the daffodils I planted yet, lol.

The strat is approaching record levels of cold and to be honest, I'm kind of glad there's no threat of a SSW or split. Maybe it will help models to settle down a bit now that the IOD has quieted down. Although... the Euro control and to a lesser extent the EPS members want to fire convection back up there after mid Jan:

I'm interested in raindances forecast, since it seems to match what we are seeing in the near term with the Euro's depiction of MC convection in a few days. 

However, the QBO would favor more convection over the MC if Tellico (and the the paper I posted in the education section, not sure if that was the one Tellico was mentioning or not) is right. 

Even though the strat is pretty cold and the vortex is wound up:

You can still see a few lobes near the troposphere occasionally wobbling this way and that. 

These show up in the tropopause as positive or negative swirlies:

So even though there doesn't seem to be any help from the strat, that still isn't stopping occasional eddies disrupting the pole at H5 and in fact that is what we've seen most of this winter. 

I suspect that unless the MJO comes alive and stays alive in the MC, raindance may be right in if not all the specifics, at least the idea of a colder February, since that does match what we've seen already this winter. 

Still hopeful for something before all this though. Overnight EPS still see a couple of distinct periods of possibilities:

 

[Carvers Gap]

All major ensembles show incredible warmth after d10(if one assumes the worst warmth is being muted...some cold runs in there making it look cooler) with an almost uncanny similarities at 500.   If the cooler runs are eliminated from the ensemble, that is a very warm look.  So, I am not going to belabor the point...that is near record warmth for days on end being shown.  The RMM1/GEFS has caved to the ECMWF with the MJO which means that the American suite was wrong both in its LR forecast and with the MJO.   Not a lot of sugar coating.  That is an extreme warms signal showing up on the LR that would take some time to break down.   I am not sure I am to the point where I buy what the EPS/GEFS/GEPS are selling, but those three in lock step have to be heard from.  To me this is the September, October, November pattern repeating itself.   Problem is, we don't really want one month of record temps followed by cold in March.  I still think this pattern breaks...it is due.  That said, if the MJO goes into phase 4 and crawls, the game is up. At this point, seems fairly obvious it is headed there, but for how long?  So, I think a period of warmth is probable and likely record warmth for 7-10 days beginning around January 12th.  What I am not sure about is the hp in the eastern Pacific just spinning ad nauseam.  Something would inevitably kick that out of the way like we are seeing between the 6th-9th.   Looks like a base "much above normal" pattern after d10 with shots of seasonal air.  Like last year, the MJO is now threatening to go high amplitude and hold.  I am just not sure I buy that.   So, instead of buying into the "end of winter forecast," I think I am going to go with Jan 12th-22nd-ish is going to be a torch.  Our one ray of hope is the Euro operational at d10 really did not look like it was heading in the direction of the ensemble.  That is two runs that has happened.  One last note, how many times have we seen modeling in lock-step only to be wrong?  Often.  However, there is good evidence behind the warm-up with the MJO.  IMHO, we need the Atlantic to begin to cooperate as I think the Pacific is like lost for some time.  More later...just getting up to speed. OTH, when models lock into warm patterns over the SE...they rarely break.  

[weathertree4u]

13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

All major ensembles show incredible warmth after d10(if one assumes the worst warmth is being muted...some cold runs in there making it look cooler) with an almost uncanny similarities at 500.   If the cooler runs are eliminated from the ensemble, that is a very warm look.  So, I am not going to belabor the point...that is near record warmth for days on end being shown.  The RMM1/GEFS has caved to the ECMWF with the MJO which means that the American suite was wrong both in its LR forecast and with the MJO.   Not a lot of sugar coating.  That is an extreme warms signal showing up on the LR that would take some time to break down.   I am not sure I am to the point where I buy what the EPS/GEFS/GEPS are selling, but those three in lock step have to be heard from.  To me this is the September, October, November pattern repeating itself.   Problem is, we don't really want one month of record temps followed by cold in March.  I still think this pattern breaks...it is due.  That said, if the MJO goes into phase 4 and crawls, the game is up. At this point, seems fairly obvious it is headed there, but for how long?  So, I think a period of warmth is probable and likely record warmth for 7-10 days beginning around January 12th.  What I am not sure about is the hp in the eastern Pacific just spinning ad nauseam.  Something would inevitably kick that out of the way like we are seeing between the 6th-9th.   Looks like a base "much above normal" pattern after d10 with shots of seasonal air.  Like last year, the MJO is now threatening to go high amplitude and hold.  I am just not sure I buy that.   So, instead of buying into the "end of winter forecast," I think I am going to go with Jan 12th-22nd-ish is going to be a torch.  Our one ray of hope is the Euro operational at d10 really did not look like it was heading in the direction of the ensemble.  That is two runs that has happened.  One last note, how many times have we seen modeling in lock-step only to be wrong?  Often.  However, there is good evidence behind the warm-up with the MJO.  IMHO, we need the Atlantic to begin to cooperate as I think the Pacific is like lost for some time.  More later...just getting up to speed. OTH, when models lock into warm patterns over the SE...they rarely break.  

I here what saying but just so insane that we are here yet again. Third consecutive year. We get to mid January and the long range still looks like this then yea, sorry but realistically winter is mia yet again 

[Carvers Gap]

Just watched JB this AM...he makes a lot of good points.  The warm water of NW Australia is causing the convection in the 4-6 regions to really be enhanced.  So, every time a wave hits that region the convections goes nuts.  So, basically we go 4, 5, and 6 which is warmth followed by a cold down as the convection leaves those areas.  He did point out(and the individual MJO model members are not out yet on CPC) that the ECMWF has been correcting into 8 prior to crossing the COD into warm phases.  If(and I don't think it is a certainty) the MJO regions fires, it will be a prolonged period of warmth.  As I said earlier(not from JB), going to need the Atlantic to help.  I just don't think the Pacific is going to do it.