Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Here's a positive for you John: Now, obviously that is ONE member of 51 ensembles and exceedingly unlikely to happen, but I will say that the EPS does see a few ways (more than recently) for some cold and snow over the next 15 days, so that is a positive! Why, even Chatt has like a 1 : 1000 shot too! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 I saw some big hitters on the EPS Ens. A few valley wide smashers. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Who knows if it's right,but it is certainly better today.Look where the SPV is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 How are we feeling about the 18z GFS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Man, that is like night and day. I know it is an operational, but just going to enjoy that run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Man, if we could get a Upper low to get stuck for a while NE of Hawaii like that: just keeps reloading that -EPO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Almost looks like the EPS i posted above where the Rex block gets into the AK 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Almost looks like the EPS i posted above where the Rex block gets into the AK Looked a lot like the 12z Euro. The big thing of note are complete reversal of heights over Alaska. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Looked a lot like the 12z Euro. The big thing of note are complete reversal of heights over Alaska. No doubt,lets hope these good signs continue 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 By 162 hours quite a few of the GEFS members see that cut off N of Hawaii, but gets a bit murkier after that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 31 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: By 162 hours quite a few of the GEFS members see that cut off N of Hawaii, but gets a bit murkier after that: Here is the EPS H360 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 For those that want to learn the EPO 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Interestingly, the operational run of the 18z GFS reversed the heights over Alaska and the ensemble reversed the heights over Greenland. LOL. The 12z EPS completely reversed heights over AK from beginning to end. So, it may be that something is afoot at higher latitudes. Lots of flip flopping usually implies a shake-up, but we will see. If you can get your hands on the EPS mean...take a look at Alaska at 500. Impressive change. Other than that, lots of volatility after this cold shot during the second week of January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 The EPO, when positioned right, is probably the best driver for us valley wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Interestingly, the operational run of the 18z GFS reversed the heights over Alaska and the ensemble reversed the heights over Greenland. LOL. The 12z EPS completely reversed heights over AK from beginning to end. So, it may be that something is afoot at higher latitudes. Lots of flip flopping usually implies a shake-up, but we will see. If you can get your hands on the EPS mean...take a look at Alaska at 500. Impressive change. Other than that, lots of volatility after this cold shot during the second week of January. My thinking is where the SPV is going to be is what the models are doing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: My thinking is where the SPV is going to be is what the models are doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Frigid with upslope/clipper prospects around day 7 to 10 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Where the heck did the ridge at 500 go on the 0z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Major Arctic blocking on the GFS, Canada loaded with cold and a lobe of the polar vortex headed for the Great Lakes. Looks like we are in for repeating very cold shots if its correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 I mean we have been looking at run after run after run of huge eastern ridges...not so much. Lots of red seemingly at high latitudes. As an operational it is no nailed anything down yet, but seems to be a fairly strong signal that high latitude blocking is at least "considering" a return. The AN heights over the pole would also signal a displaced TPV. Lots of moving parts, but glad to see the last several weeks of modeling get knocked off its spot. Has a slight November feel to modeling without going to overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 The CMC has a fantasy land storm barely right about d9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Unless my eyes are fooling me, around 300 the PV at 500mb splits for a bit before roughly reconsolidating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 I don't have a lot of trust in the models right now, but they are finally starting to reel in the cold. it's now well inside day 10 for the first cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Agree on model trust...Just speculation, but if one really wants winter, have the PV split and that piece in Quebec dive into an eastern trough. Then we are cooking with gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Agree on model trust...Just speculation, but if one really wants winter, have the PV split and that piece in Quebec dive into an eastern trough. Then we are cooking with gas. It was transient on the run, but the +PNA and -EPO team up around 180 and the Alaska ridge shoots into the Arctic and pops a -AO. The GFS tries to go back to a western trough at the end but the Ridge is building back towards Alaska again at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 When accounting for the 8 to 10 day lag time..that run looked a lot like the MJO. Entering phase 7 now (cold would arrive around 5th or so), stays cold for a few days (until COD), then warmth begins to build in (phase 4/5).Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 0z GEFS not there. It might be playing catch-up...not sure. Quick nugget for those that don't know, the Pivotal Wx site updates the ensemble for the GEFS about as quick as I can find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 If that is a -NAO, you should not see that SER..IMHO,LEAST WHAT THE gefs SHOWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: If that is a -NAO, you should not see that SER..IMHO More less,you should not see those heights pump up in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: More less,you should not see those heights pump up in the east It dont work like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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