December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, John1122 said:

The MJO was low amplitude 7 into 8 from late January into February 10th 2015, it went very low across 7 on the 12th and into the COD at 6 by the 16th. It stayed in the middle of the COD but slightly towards the 4/5 side through the 23rd and sat in the COD through early March. The EPO drove everything in February 2015. We had a +AO and +NAO and had a major ice/snow event with 10s below 0 in the area based solely on the Pacific ridging that just sucked cold from Siberia and flung it our way.

Bingo !!! Thanks John.

[John1122]

2010 was of course quite snowy and persistently cold. The MJO went low amplitude from 3 to 7 from January 1st to the 21. January 1st - 13th only had 1 day above freezing. We had a warm up when it went into 5-6 and 7.  Then after about a week in 7, we cooled back down for the first two weeks of February where it hung out in 7-8.

By looking it takes several days for it to warm up once it gets to 4-5 then it's warm in 5-6 and it takes several days to cool down when it's in 7. If it's in the COD it seems to tend cooler than normal even if it's in the COD near 5-6.

[TellicoWx]

During a typical winter cycle...DJF, the MJO is only active for around 45% of the season. When the MJO is in the COD it is inactive (very little influence on the pattern). We have been in the inactive period (except for small spike currently)..other drivers have been influencing our pattern. QBO monthly mean has very little actual meaning...QBO is actually divided into 4 base phases..QBOEM, QBOWM, QBOEL, and QBOWL. During winter cycle QBOEM (our current phase) has shown to have the greatest influence on the MJO by enhancing (reawakening) it over the MC (almost exactly how the EMON plays out) 80% of the time. The exact opposite happens when QBOWM occurs. The phases and influence is not determined by one point in the column..its the column as a whole that's analyzed.

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[Daniel Boone]

A side note irt Feb. 2015. At one point Northern Lee and much of Wise County had 2 to 3 feet on the ground on the level ! Big Stone gap, 27". Pennington gap 24". 33 to 36" Keokee to Seminary area. 22" at my home . These areas totalled 35 to 45" in a 3 week span. Official reports as well as pics/videos verified these reports. 

     As John mentioned,  -10s were common. -16 at my home. -20 reported from Pennington gap. 

[John1122]

35 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

A side note irt Feb. 2015. At one point Northern Lee and much of Wise County had 2 to 3 feet on the ground on the level ! Big Stone gap, 27". Pennington gap 24". 33 to 36" Keokee to Seminary area. 22" at my home . These areas totalled 35 to 45" in a 3 week span. Official reports as well as pics/videos verified these reports. 

     As John mentioned,  -10s were common. -16 at my home. -20 reported from Pennington gap. 

At one point the snow had a dump of rain into it, then more snow then below 0 cold, one of my vehicles actually had it's wheels lifted off the ground when the ice expanded below it and basically jacked it up.

[Carvers Gap]

Here are some things to watch in the long range as the EPS finishes its run.

1.  The GEPS has flipped to a favorable pattern from 0z.

2.  The GFS/GEFS are out of sync.

3.  The Euro  operational "found" some extreme cold in southern Canada - take a look at the run-to-run temp change over Quebec.  Tells me there is reasonable if significant uncertainty after d7.  One good storm and that is a phase 8 MJO look.

4.  Heights in prime blocking areas have moved on operationals/ensembels to either neutral or negative.   Starting to see the beginnings of a HB block on some modeling.  That area is notorious to forecast and can flip quickly.  I noticed the change at 0z(could have been their prior), but there is a trend over Hudson Bay and the Davis Straits towards higher heights.  

[Carvers Gap]

18 minutes ago, John1122 said:

At one point the snow had a dump of rain into it, then more snow then below 0 cold, one of my vehicles actually had it's wheels lifted off the ground when the ice expanded below it and basically jacked it up.

That is crazy, man!  Wow.

[Carvers Gap]

I always sort of consider 2014-2015 as prime example of why analogs don't work.  It had a lot of things working against a wintry pattern...but it just kept snowing.  I give a lot of credit to the EPO ridge that just took over as the dominant driver.  I think if the MJO would just fold into the COD for the rest of winter, the EPO ridge would slide eastward and send cold east of the MS.  The MJO is pulling that EPO ridge just far enough back to make it warm here.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS moved off of its spot.  No doubt about it.  Again, another afternoon run that is cooler.  If you can toggle 850 temps from d10-15 for each day...look at the difference.  Also, look at the trends at 500.  We won't know if this is trend or just a wobble.  I wonder if afternoon convection in MJO regions is causing the 0z run to be warmer and/or the MJO to be slightly off?

[John1122]

28 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

That is crazy, man!  Wow.

I'd never seen anything like it, I parked it in about 8 or 9 inches of slushy snow. When it went below 0 it just lifted it. A local business I frequent didn't get it's parking lot cleared and it turned into a skating rink, there was about 5-6 inches of compacted ice that driving across and sun basically polished. They finally got someone with a bobcat to come break it up because it wasn't melting in that cold wave. If we could get the EPO ridge 500-800 miles East we'd be in big business.

[John1122]

Gonna hope the EPS isn't another headfake and it starts a trend. We've spoke often though, of how often the headfake happens when a pattern is locked in.

[Carvers Gap]

16 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Gonna hope the EPS isn't another headfake and it starts a trend. We've spoke often though, of how often the headfake happens when a pattern is locked in.

Agree.  No way to know.  It is actually very workable even by 10.  The surface temps cooled 5-8F from the last run.  Could switch back.  That said, maybe our discussion about the old school AK vortex is not unfounded.  In the mid-Atlantic, they referenced a paper stating that set-up usually teleconnects warm here.  Sure seems like I remember seeing a cold Alaska as a kid and about a week later...it was cold here.  Wonder if that study was just a snapshot in time, because sometimes those AK vortices will head SE, often actually.  I do think there is plenty of uncertainty in the pattern.  However, with the trend for the MJO to go further around the COD instead of across it...those types of runs should show up.  Decent uptick in snow.  The control has an event for I-40 north.  But yeah, nice to see at least a hiccup...gives us a little bit of hope!

[Carvers Gap]

Again...the other deal that is a trend is AN heights over the Hudson Bay.  Need to watch that.  That has been going on since yesterday.  Also, MJO will be interesting to look at tomorrow.  

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'd never seen anything like it, I parked it in about 8 or 9 inches of slushy snow. When it went below 0 it just lifted it. A local business I frequent didn't get it's parking lot cleared and it turned into a skating rink, there was about 5-6 inches of compacted ice that driving across and sun basically polished. They finally got someone with a bobcat to come break it up because it wasn't melting in that cold wave. If we could get the EPO ridge 500-800 miles East we'd be in big business.

I was looking at some old pics yesterday.  One of my kids was holding a snow shovel that was taller than he was.  Snow(that had been shoveled) was near his waist.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Thanks for all the good discussion all. I think the flu has finally closed its fevery hands around me.  Was perusing the twitter sphere and saw that the 12z Euro control has some weirdo blocking configuration. All I can get from the EPS members is precip. over CONUS, but any of y'all have that with a NA H5 pattern? 

Not that it's worth much at 10 + days but it is showing a Miller B with a front end thump for NE areas locally.

Aaannnd of course I say "not worth much" and proceed to write about it for half an hour, lol!!

In terms of the non tropical forcing, crankyweather was saying to watch a piece of the TPV that was just dislodged and as far as I can tell that's the piece that has been helping set off the reaction that's been giving us the crazy GFS solutions lately. 7 - 9 is the time frame they've been in, but still not in OP Euro range. 

Normally I would draw on the gif, but my drawing program, much like my immune system, has crapped out on me. What I have put on there with giphy are two arrows. The black one near Russia points to the piece of the TPV that cranky was talking about. Watch as it kicks toward the sea of Ohkutsk (Masiello was the one who tweeted about this today and helped me put the two together) and bombs out a low there, temporarily upsetting the nasty Pac.  That sets off a chain reaction that ends up kicking a piece of energy south and pops a low (red arrow indicates trajectory). 

Obviously not super confident in a specific outcome, but speculatively, even if the worse MJO forecasts have us in the COD after a quick trip through 8, we'd be in the COD around that time after the short trip through more favorable phases, so coupled with what y'all have been talking about might be interesting to see how that system trends over the next week. 

After that, dice tossing time. 

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS with -73F at 252 over Greenland.  

[jaxjagman]

Probably one thing that could make or break the MJO is going to be once again the +IOD.CFS wants to give it one last hurrah before it goes away then it totally weakens it sig. into the 2nd week of Jan.,so this should be a player of how the MJO progresses.But looks like a nice KW moving through into the first of the year,big storm?Sure looks like it,look at the entrance of that jet.But a couple days ago the Euro showed snow,now it's more severe

[weathertree4u]

29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS with -73F at 252 over Greenland.  

Yea the cold is there but not really anything to pull it down

[Carvers Gap]

41 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Yea the cold is there but not really anything to pull it down

The way that I view that is that it likely is going to move around some on future runs...just means that cold air is in play over NA - really cold air.  Will be interesting to see the comments as the 18z GEFS rolls out.  Some decent little changes there.  Really, I kind of hold to the philosophy that getting cold into southern Canada or even the northern Plains just requires one storm to bring it down.  What has been interesting is the block developing over Hudson Bay.  While not a perfect block, it can act as a faux Davis Straits block.  

So, weathertree, we have to figure out how to survive a recurring case of the 0z (warm) yips tonight.  I suspect we see a slight warm-up at 0z...been that way for weeks and could even be a total reversal of progress.  What I can live with is two steps forward and one step back.  I am really interested to see if the MJO continues to be adjusted to better outcomes.  My fingers are crossed that we see further progress.  

[jaxjagman]

You really like to see the low get kicked out of the Baffin Bay/Greenland that just spins for days.We arent getting help from the Pac anytime soon,least right now.If we have a change of any it seemingly will go with the MJO towards the mid month

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z GEFS develops a fairly strong block on the Atlantic side post 300.  That is not a new feature.  It has been gaining steam for a couple of days as the Hudson Bay AN anomaly that we have discussed.  Good run.  Also, nice run by the 0z CMC operational.  I was not a huge fan of the 0z GFS operational.  If given the choice, I will take a global ensemble over its operational.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 0z GEFS develops a fairly strong block on the Atlantic side post 300.  That is not a new feature.  It has been gaining steam for a couple of days as the Hudson Bay AN anomaly that we have discussed.  Good run.  Also, nice run by the 0z CMC operational.  I was not a huge fan of the 0z GFS operational.  If given the choice, I will take a global ensemble over its operational.

Euro got colder that run,looks more GFS,last run the Euro showed the trough trying to go -ve tilt,this run is more positive,like the GFS,Looks like some good low level shear tho so some one should get some good rains.Probably the better convection would be in the eastern where the better theta-e is showing,least thats what it looks right now.Still the teconnections suck right now on the Euro tonight

[jaxjagman]

Like the Rex block the Euro shows towards the Aleutian Islands,just need it go into the AK,GOA.Least if it goes into the AK we might at least get help with the EPO

 

[Carvers Gap]

Not sure that I buy it, but the 12z Euro just popped a western ridge and dug a huge eastern trough.  Doesn't teleconnect well, but we'll take it...Europe is really warm.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro may be trying to throw us a bone at the end of its run. 

Cold looks good:

PNA ridge building and forcing some energy south of us

Energy is buckling the jet:

But things are too progressive to the east of us on this run and the Gulf is cut off. 

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

The reason I don't buy the run is that the Euro looks like it over accentuates a hp dropping into Southern California early in the run.  That slight accentuation allowed for an outlier PNA to pop.  Europe warmth doesn't teleconnect well with eastern cold either.  Don't get me wrong, I will take it...but looks suspicious.

[Carvers Gap]

But dang, it is about time for something to break....LOL.   Maybe that is the beginning of a trend vs being an outlier.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS backed it up...welp.  Very slight changes and could just be ebb and flow...yet another cool 12z run for the EPS.

[Daniel Boone]

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The reason I don't buy the run is that the Euro looks like it over accentuates a hp dropping into Southern California early in the run.  That slight accentuation allowed for an outlier PNA to pop.  Europe warmth doesn't teleconnect well with eastern cold either.  Don't get me wrong, I will take it...but looks suspicious.

Agree with the cold europe=eastern us cold but, I think that is generally associated with the NAO.  In most cases a +NAO portals a mild Eastern US but, as we know, not always. It almost always does Europe. 

    So, let's hope that's the case here.

[John1122]

After seeing the reality that Tennessee basketball is awful, I need something positive model wise to help me through the winter.