December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

And the QBO at 30mb has gone strongly negative this morning.  It bounces around some, but we want it on the left of the column consistently.  If it stays there, it raises the chances of high latitude blocking pretty significantly.  Would have been nice to see it there in November, but that would have been an early flip.  A cycle of the QBO takes about 28 months which means it stays positive for about fourteen months before going negative.   It double dipped positive one cycle ago which coincides nicely to some pretty so-so winters.  Pretty awesomely, December is month 14 of being positive...and there it sits as negative.  Fingers crossed it doesn't stall, but that is a pretty good drop.   Also, I am not sure what the time lag is regarding its effects on hemispheric circulation, but that is a pretty sharp drop and one would think the effects would be felt sooner than later since it is a wind reversal. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Must have placed this in banter accidentally...

A slight glimmer of hope this AM...Both the 6zGFS and EPS-Control show strong heights building in the eastern Pacific with downstream troughing.  Those runs in and of themselves are good.  The actual EPS/GEFS ensemble depict an EPO ridge that is too far to the West and drops the trough into the West.  What that means is that there are likely more members solutions to the West than East.  However, with an operational and control showing an eastern trough...there is some(even if slight) possibility that the trough comes eastward.  Just a guess, but I might suspect that we are beginning to see the first hints that modeling is going to change up the current warm pattern.  Usually see some head fakes on operational runs before ensembles take hold.  Still think we are at least a couple of weeks before we even hit the transition time frame.  Still, we should see one cold shot around the new year prior to reverting to warm.  What would be awesome is if that cold dug deep enough to set up the eastern trough early.  So, maybe some slight hints by modeling that we might be moving to something consistently less than hostile by mid-January.

[tnweathernut]

It’s probable what transpires over the next week (assuming the -EPO has merit) will give a much better idea where the EPO will be.  Trends the next week or so will show which form the EPO takes (east vs west).  Again, if it’s an accurate depiction about where we are headed.......
 

Glad to see the SOI really tanking the last couple of days.

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS with an enormous lump of coal.  

[weathertree4u]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z EPS with an enormous lump of coal.  

Lol not surprised. 

[Carvers Gap]

35 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Lol not surprised. 

Actually...I was getting ready to edit.  It is not as bad as I thought.  I typed too soon.  Still a pretty massive ridge over the East.  But the trends from the overnight run are yet again cooler than 0z and in some cases significantly.  Still warm...just not ridiculously warm.  Looks like a decaf version of the GEFS.

[Carvers Gap]

Yeah, let me see if I can pull up all of the individual ensemble members.  Going to try to put them on one upload so as to save space.  It is not a slam dunk.  It is about 50/50 warm/cold.

[John1122]

Models are all struggling, as usual. They are throwing out superwarmth and then backing off as verification time approaches. I like some of the looks we are seeing, especially for further western areas of the valley. This side of the Apps looks better than the east side for sure.

[Carvers Gap]

So this is waaaay out there.  But when the ensemble looked warm, I was like...just a torch(and that is exactly what is depicted).  However, I started to dig through its 2m temp map and it wasn't as warm.  I do agree with John that the EPS often backs off as it gets closer in terms of warmth as that is a bias of it...GEFS does the same but with cold moderating to warmer.  Still a pretty ugly pattern, but I also noticed that some of the MJO forecasts were creeping into phase 8 this morning and pushing back the quick move across the COD into 5.  The CFS remains the loan holdout and takes the MJO into cold phases and does not go into the warm phases...would be a big time coup for that model.  Anyway, look at the options on the table this far out...

[Carvers Gap]

Still, the EPS cool trend from 0z to 12z in notable yet again.  Rarely does the EPS cool at 0z.  I think this current warm-up has been modeled fairly well.  The EPS LR was generally the warmest of the global ensembles for the forum area this December.  GEFS was cold in the LR.  The EPS will easily verify.  I suspect the EPS is probably correct for the next couple of weeks...Hopefully, we see some cracks in the western trough armor by then.  This is definitely a time of year that can leave one looking pretty silly.  While I was fairly all-in on this upcoming warm-up, I am treading lightly once we get to the second week of January.  I am reading some more posts about the PV tightening up...gotta hope that doesn't happen.  If so, sustained January cold is likely not happening.  The EPS at least implies that we see one and maybe two decent cold fronts.  With an active storm pattern, anything can happen.  Deep into a pattern cycle, I trust the EPS less and less, because it will miss the change to a new pattern quite often and the GFS operational will often catch it first - especially if the flip is to cold.  So the question now is not whether it will be warm...it is going to be.  The question now is the duration.  If that PV tightens up...LONG wait.  But if it sits up there is just sends a piece SE every 7-10 days...that is workable.  I would not say there is much uncertainty right now in terms of temps for the next couple of weeks.  After that...maybe that is where the transition sits.  

[Carvers Gap]

Some good discussion in the MA thread about the +AO and -PNA and some of the cooler looks being thrown out there by the model in spite of poor high latitude blocking signals(PSU and BChill discussing that).  Not a lot of analogs to support cold with those indices being the reverse of good.  So, likely those indices are wrong...or there is going to be a significant SE ridge...or we have the rare eastern winter where we get cold with poor teleconnections in place.  I would recommend reading that discussion.  It is pretty interesting.  I would bet on the SER, but as much as the weather went totally out of whack last year...would not surprise me to see another wonky year where things don't fit.  I still halfway think that trough corrects east in the LR...I just don't have much support for that thinking right now.  Again, the MJO delayed its move into the warm phases this AM and took a peak at phase 8.  Need to keep an eye on that.  Add in the QBO and SOI(especially the deeply negative SOI), and there are some ingredients in there for model volatility coming up.  Not seeing it yet, but the SOI implies something afoot.

[PisgahNCWeather]

I know Hailstorm mentioned the other day about the solar affecting the MJO going forward. Hopefully he will give an update soon.

[TellicoWx]

Combine a +AO regime with modeling heading into phase 5 with the MJO (12z GFS looked correct at H5 in the LR for MJO 5), that leaves the SE forum with very few ways out (mainly a deep -NAO needed). You want the modeling to get to Phase 5 sooner rather than later (weak flirting with very low amp Phase 8 is just adding to the delay)...if the later happens then you start putting very end of Jan into early Feb in trouble for a pattern change to cold.

Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk

[TellicoWx]

As far as QBO..we are entering QBOEM which strongly supports the MJO reawakening in Phase 5..if you want SSW splits, then would need QBOEL (should enter that phase in the fall...good spot for next winter).

Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk

[TellicoWx]

Current QBO phase only analogs for Jan are: 04/05, 97/98, 78/79, 73/74, 55/56...those years were all entry QBOEM Jan years. The only thing the QBO number does is tell you entry/exit points.

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

NC_Hailstorm was saying that:

"There's now a forecast of kp3(elevated solar wind/EEP) for 12/25 12/26 and 12/27 that was NOT there three days ago.Any extra solar wind/EEP will try to stall and loop the MJO into Maritime,and given the 4-8 day lag that's why its trying to loop it around Jan 1st-5th."

Hopefully we don't have another 6 weeks of heavy convection this Jan in the MC regions  

 

[Carvers Gap]

I have gone over the 12z EPS and GEPS and 18z GEFS.  Just chilling on Christmas Day evening.  If there is anything I can gather...the coldest air on the planet (speaking of anomalies only) is going to be in North America.  All modeling wants to keep this centered in the West....and the GEFS and EPS allow that cold air to spread east and se in pieces from Alaska.  The 18z GEFS allows much of North America to be overtaken by BN temps.  Looks like bias in play, but the EPS does something similar to a lesser degree.  Not sure how they are pulling that off given multiple indices showing otherwise.  Something I am just kicking around....if we manage to get that much cold air into North America, maybe it just overrides the system.  Probably not...but modeling is actually showing this happen.  My guess would be a SER in place most of the time.  Might even be cold coming in chasing storms.   But it would be very cold air behind those storms.  Might be that each storm presses the boundary southward.  

[weathertree4u]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have gone over the 12z EPS and GEPS and 18z GEFS.  Just chilling on Christmas Day evening.  If there is anything I can gather...the coldest air on the planet (speaking of anomalies only) is going to be in North America.  All modeling wants to keep this centered in the West....and the GEFS and EPS allow that cold air to spread east and se in pieces from Alaska.  The 18z GEFS allows much of North America to be overtaken by BN temps.  Looks like bias in play, but the EPS does something similar to a lesser degree.  Not sure how they are pulling that off given multiple indices showing otherwise.  Something I am just kicking around....if we manage to get that much cold air into North America, maybe it just overrides the system.  Probably not...but modeling is actually showing this happen.  My guess would be a SER in place most of the time.  Might even be cold coming in chasing storms.   But it would be very cold air behind those storms.  Might be that each storm presses the boundary southward.  

Interesting, this is of course something I am guessing that will come into better focus over time? For example, by Sunday?

[jaxjagman]

Wish we could access Ventrice models,i spend extra money if i could

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

[Carvers Gap]

49 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Interesting, this is of course something I am guessing that will come into better focus over time? For example, by Sunday?

One would think so...I would not be surprised to see the GEFS cave to the EPS in terms of a Southeast Ridge.  OTH, the GEFS caught the last transition to cold.  Basically, most of the day the GEFS is evolving to all of North America w BN heights.  It is like one gigantic block w the easter Pacific ridge on one wide and a ridge over Europe being the other. Definitely an orthodox look.  That used to happen in the 1970s.  That said, it is entirely possible that the ensemble can't figure out if it wants a trough in the East or West.  As evidence, just look at the EPS member distribution.  So, what may look like a huge, full latitude tough may actually be just model spread.  If it is model spread, bet on the Southeast Ridge.  LOL...but sometimes I wonder.  If all of the teleconnections just go to crap...all of eastern NA should torch...but really no ensemble depicts that look.  As John noted, something is out of whack - likely the handling of the MJO.  It would be very TN Valley-ish to have all teleconnections go to crap...and then have a bout of memorable winter.   Very little would surprise me right now.  You know in 2014, December was really warm and most of us(probably me included) had written off that winter.  Then, modeling flipped in a matter of a few runs.  The EPS never caught up...like the rest of the winter it didn't catch up.  I also wouldn't be surprised for us to stay warm and never flip back.  If that PV tightens up, going to be heck to pay come later winter and spring.  So, I think the best we can actually hope for given everything we know is this...The PV over Alaska pinwheels and sends cold shots southeast.  That will likely mean warm to very warm interludes.  But we only need seasonal at this time of the year.  IMHO, it is a major ice storm setup.  An example would be a storm that cuts through the TN Valley to the Lakes.  It drives bitterly cold air into the Valley with a storm on its heals.  Get some WAA and trap the cold in the valleys...and there you go.  Right now, the STJ is lit.  Not going to need a lot of cold air to have some ice, slush, and light accums.  So, to answer your question, I think we are just now getting to where we can see something different on LR modeling.  

One last thing to consider, do you all remember Jeff talking about how teleconnection signals were sometimes getting opposite results due to the warm Pacific?  I sort of thought he was kidding...but then realized maybe he wasn't.  Correct me if I am wrong, Jeff.  I think during 14-15' most of the teleconnections were not favorable, maybe a very positive AO?  So, we might be getting ready to test that theory.   I don't want to provide false hope or wish casting, but the big trough is their on pretty much all global ensembles.  Going to be interesting to see the MJO in the AM.  If the crossing of the COD into warm phases gets delayed for several more days...makes me wonder if something is up.  Anyway, LOOOONG answer to your question.  What we really want to see is a crack in the EPS during the next few days.  If it "missed the turn" to a new pattern, it should begin slowly correcting OR it may double down.

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Wish we could access Ventrice models,i spend extra money if i could

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

Jax, that would imply an SSW event in early January, right?  And a significant one at that.

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NC_Hailstorm was saying that:

"There's now a forecast of kp3(elevated solar wind/EEP) for 12/25 12/26 and 12/27 that was NOT there three days ago.Any extra solar wind/EEP will try to stall and loop the MJO into Maritime,and given the 4-8 day lag that's why its trying to loop it around Jan 1st-5th."

Hopefully we don't have another 6 weeks of heavy convection this Jan in the MC regions  

 

Have you ever just watched a football game where your team turned it over all game long, had a ton of penalties, shot itself in the foot, and then somehow found a way to victory.   I mean how much stuff can actually be against us?!  LOL.  PV is tightening up.  MJO looks bad.  Low solar but just enough to screw things up....and on and on.  Sometimes when I see things just get that bad....I am like, it can't stay this way forever(unless you are a TN fan, and then it lasts for a decade!).  But seriously, nature likes balance.  At some point this pendulum of bad winters is gonna swing back the other way.  

But the SOI is sitting at -27!  Sure sign that something fairly significant is on its way in NA.  If the QBO is still negative tomorrow, also a good sign.  IMHO, those two carry a ton of weight.  We will keep our fingers crossed.  We are finally due a cold overnight run, right!

[Carvers Gap]

Wiggum has a funny post in the MA about the wild solutions being spit out between the 3-6th.  I mean there has been some crazy stuff on modeling during that time frame.  Very strong, historic type stuff.  If that happens...that might be the end of this pattern.  Usually a big storm will end one pattern and begin another.  My gut tells me that after the first few days of January we are going to move from this warm pattern to a time frame of great uncertainty...and I could be wrong and everyone opens up their pools in late January!  Just a hunch that we are about to hit a wild pattern over North America.  Again, nothing scientific to support that so take with a huge grain of salt.  That -27 SOI does have my radar up though.  So, maybe a little bit of science.

[jaxjagman]

17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jax, that would imply an SSW event in early January, right?  And a significant one at that.

No,that just reverses the QBO early,it will take time to have anything sig

[jaxjagman]

Least right now we have a chance of snow in the long range.Trough going through East Asia tomorrow would bring a trough in the east into the first of the year.Have to see how it plays out if it's to be believed.Euro shows a shortwave around the trough axis

[Carvers Gap]

11 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

No,that just reverses the QBO early,it will take time to have anything sig

Man, I think that is an SSW event during the second week of January.  90N is the North Pole.  At 10mb, that is a lot of heat up there.  After reading the tweet, I think Ventrice is talking about the variability of the SPV with a weakening a few weeks ago, the current strengthening, and then a weakening.  Good find.

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Least right now we have a chance of snow in the long range.Trough going through East Asia tomorrow would bring a trough in the east into the first of the year.Have to see how it plays out if it's to be believed.Euro shows a shortwave around the trough axis

Combine that with that crazy drop int the SOI...might be interesting.

[jaxjagman]

53 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jax, that would imply an SSW event in early January, right?  And a significant one at that.

Should strenghten it some.EPS is showing the SPV into the Baffin Bay long range

[jaxjagman]

Right now with the QBO ssemingly next winter might be really good if teleconnections work out.Seems like a good chance we could be headed into a more LaNina pattern and  low sunspots like this winter should be on the low side.I'm not punting this winter but just pointing this out.But when the QBO flip it relative stays flipped for around 18 months

[jaxjagman]

I talked about this on thie ENSO thread.The strongest+IOD YEARS 1994,1997,2006 the ENSO always went into a Nina the next summer,During 1995,1998,2007 the EPO was either falling or rising one way or another -ve,seems like we are headed with other teleconnection signatures we should be headed towards a LaNina next winter

EPO

 

1994   -7.64   -9.84  -11.29  -14.71  -18.03  -23.09  -28.65  -27.02  -19.07  -10.29   -0.30    5.93
1995    8.38    8.01    8.79   11.79   14.92   15.62   11.74    9.53    6.98    3.43   -0.77   -4.57
1996   -5.79   -6.90   -9.92  -11.08  -14.88  -17.03  -23.93  -25.85  -26.02  -23.40  -18.08   -9.86
1997   -3.57    1.94    4.77    9.74   12.37   14.50   14.85   11.69   11.64    9.91    5.74    0.78
1998   -0.85   -2.96   -4.92   -7.82  -14.08  -18.57  -22.97  -24.70  -22.12  -18.77  -12.22   -3.96
1999    3.09    5.84    8.59   13.51   15.56   15.23   14.11   11.91   11.18   10.62    6.01    6.43
2000    4.85    4.20    5.51    3.98   -0.99   -7.83  -13.13  -15.31  -15.52  -14.04  -15.07  -14.56
2001  -15.69  -15.53  -15.99  -17.73  -20.99  -23.31  -24.45  -21.67  -14.29  -10.81   -3.88    1.48
2002    4.64    8.00    9.32   14.03   14.16   13.26   10.05   10.60    8.90    7.66    4.46   -0.50
2003   -1.39   -1.43   -3.30   -8.56  -13.63  -17.71  -22.99  -24.64  -22.51  -20.34  -17.86  -11.38
2004   -4.84    2.61    5.45   10.46   12.97   11.75    9.96    8.74    7.29    8.00    4.35    2.45
2005   -0.69   -0.96   -0.33   -6.64  -15.09  -20.59  -24.20  -25.87  -27.80  -28.76  -29.55  -25.04
2006  -18.83  -11.24   -0.38    5.00   10.36   11.47   10.75    9.10   10.20   10.86   10.10    6.21
2007    2.61    2.43    1.24   -5.18  -14.06  -21.33  -24.92  -27.41  -28.13  -29.05  -27.61  -19.48
2008  -12.42   -4.70    2.19    6.43   11.53   13.45   13.27   11.63   11.60   11.05    9.13   10.46
2009   10.71   12.33   11.44    9.11    1.56   -5.47  -12.21  -14.45  -13.81  -11.69  -13.83  -15.57
2010  -16.02  -16.98  -19.68  -23.57  -26.28  -25.05   -9.84    1.45    6.58   10.83   12.16   10.97
2011    9.18   10.05   10.44   10.71   10.02    3.90    0.44   -0.49   -2.30   -3.05   -9.09  -16.25
2012  -16.07  -15.25  -16.74  -17.62  -22.04  -25.89  -27.82  -27.93  -26.60  -24.51  -18.95  -10.02
2013   -6.07   -1.23    2.85    8.39   12.64   13.38   14.27   14.66   13.12   11.69   12.45   12.55
2014   13.13   12.68   11.72    7.15   -2.81  -13.98  -19.29  -21.64  -23.24  -23.86  -23.65  -25.38
2015  -26.70  -28.62  -28.15  -24.38  -12.33    2.18    7.45   10.97   12.07   13.38   12.79   11.39
2016    9.34    6.77    3.16    0.64    2.37    3.86    6.25   10.07   10.48   12.83   14.16   15.09
2017   14.92   14.78   14.35   13.88    8.01   -3.18  -10.48  -14.42  -15.28  -16.79  -17.20  -18.12
2018  -19.02  -19.37  -19.77  -21.41  -24.23  -28.45  -29.10  -20.41   -9.91   -2.79    3.36    8.05
2019    9.02    9.25   11.82   13.36   14.59   14.36   10.96    9.97    8.25    7.27    5.07 -999.00
  -999.0