December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

26 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Is that going to translate to anything other than more of the same? I don't know, but I do think it is at least in more favorable phases for now.

Ten million dollar question right there...When modeling flips around, I suspect the forecast for those ares is driving the flip.  If we are going to see any type of decent winter, the convection just west of the dateline has to subside.  Might be that the weird ENSO set-up is wrecking havoc on things.  Warm west Pacific and cool eastern.  It is even possible that the ongoing QBO reversal has something to do with this as well.  The QBO is correlated with PV disruptions.  That phase 6 of the MJO I think is also correlated with PV disruptions.   The PV is definitely not disrupted right now and is the opposite of that.  However, will be interesting to see what all of that heat/steam being pumped into the atmosphere does to it.

Lastly, the model that actually has a phase 6 looks is the EPS.  The GEFS not as much.  After looking pretty closely at the MJO, looks to me like the EPS by far has the more accurate depiction of the NA wx pattern.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I wold go for 6/7 then based on that diagram. That shows a more precip closer to New Guinea for a 6 alone. The CPC's diagram runs the dateline just east of Fiji and the deepest convection is just east of Fiji:

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Destructive signals continues with the MJO

Jax, when you say destructive....is that referencing the NA pattern and eastern warmth or is that referencing the dual phase (both 1/2 and 6) being depicted by IR satellite images? 

[Carvers Gap]

MJO forecasts have updated on CPC...The CFS forecast above would be likely be a cold signal.  It has changed from yesterday as it no longer goes completely through the cold phases and has dropped into the COD after a few days in phase 8.  It is the only model that I can find with decent MJO phases, but is trending away from that.  The Euro depiction takes the MJO into phase 5 and then basically stalls there.  Looks like what the CFS is trending towards that.  The GFS/GEFS matches the Euro.  I can't stress this enough...we need that to change soon as that is generally a prolonged warm signal for eastern NA.  Now, the MJO has done multiple head fakes into those regions for the past couple of months and it has not made it there.  As noted above, the weakening of convection in phases 1/and 2 is likely allowing for the MJO to loop back into phases 5 and 6.  Will it get there and how long will it stay if it does?  Climatology/ENSO state argue strongly against this, but there it is on modeling nonetheless.  Let's see where modeling goes today and tomorrow... Might be pay me now or pay me later type deal though.  If 6 warms, it could eventually break loose a very cold PV and force it to lower latitudes.  It would occur during late winter though.  

[Carvers Gap]

Been a great Christmas Eve discussion.  I have to go get a run in and then do some Christmas stuff.  Heres to a better looking MJO and model suite over the next few days!  Merry Christmas, everyone!!!  I will try to check back.

[tnweathernut]

Not trying to throw shade at all the MJO discussion.  In fact, I have enjoyed reading the forum this AM and in past days.......   but.....

Are we sure the MJO is driving this bus?  I’m not sure I remember a time where the MJO signal and forecasts were all over the place.  They are mostly in and around the COD or in low amplitude....  

Where the convection increases/sustains, and where it fades in the coming days will likely cause more forecast changes in the near term.  Maybe we will soon start to get a more consistent MJO forecast and better consistency wrt sensible weather impacts along with it (for better or worse - colder or warmer).

 

I just wonder if we aren’t missing something else of equal or greater importance?

[jaxjagman]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Jax, when you say destructive....is that referencing the NA pattern and eastern warmth or is that referencing the dual phase (both 1/2 and 6) being depicted by IR satellite images? 

Lots going on around the IDL..CCKW,ROSSBY,WWB.With  your CCKW which should upwell the warmer subsurface into region 4 possibly push the warmer surface east into 3.4.Lots of conflicting signals even on 850mb,if you use all the projected sums it's almost like the MJO is in 8,1.Now if you look at CA it shows this,to an extent.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

7 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I just wonder if we aren’t missing something else of equal or greater importance?

I think the TPV is a big part of it too. That -NAO we got a bit back has helped roll it over the pole toward Alaska and even if some base state wanted to help us out with -AO or -EPO, just can't happen right now. 

[TellicoWx]

Not trying to throw shade at all the MJO discussion.  In fact, I have enjoyed reading the forum this AM and in past days.......   but.....
Are we sure the MJO is driving this bus?  I’m not sure I remember a time where the MJO signal and forecasts were all over the place.  They are mostly in and around the COD or in low amplitude....  
Where the convection increases/sustains, and where it fades in the coming days will likely cause more forecast changes in the near term.  Maybe we will soon start to get a more consistent MJO forecast and better consistency wrt sensible weather impacts along with it (for better or worse - colder or warmer).
 
I just wonder if we aren’t missing something else of equal or greater importance?

MJO is about the 3rd passenger back on the bus

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[Carvers Gap]

Order of importance right now IMHO...When in doubt, look to the oceans...

1.  Indian Ocean convection - abnormally positive IOD in early winter. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.long.data

1.  MJO is easy pick for me.  Lots of convection where we don't want it, even if low amplitude.  Correlates very well, even at very low amplitude(even in the COD), with the warm weather we have had this month.  It is also the reason that I have been banging the drum for this warm-up.

2.  The unusual ENSO state with cold water neat South America, warm in the western Pacific.  

3.  Warm water in the GOA.

4.  Tightening PV over AK which I think is a 2 week phenomenon there.  

5.  Recent seasonal trends during the past decade which feature warmer falls and cooler springs.

Weaker signals.

1. SOI

2.  QBO

Wild cards:  Solar and sea ice.  Also, it is important to note that several Nino winters(some admittedly super) were very warm during the 90s.  Again, patterns can and do flip on a dime.  I don't see a ton of that(edit: meaning sustained cold) during the next two to three(edit) weeks.

[Carvers Gap]

I stated this yesterday and it somewhat bears repeating.  The reason folks like weak Nino patterns is that there is quite of bit of energy in they system.  It is one of those types of wx patterns where it can and does snow during an otherwise warm pattern.  Something I also noted is that there are two(chicken and egg) camps regarding potential for winter wx.

Camp 1.  Cold weather needs to be in place.

Camp 2.  Needs to be plenty of moisture in place.  

Two of the biggest snows that I have seen were during very warm but active patterns.  It was a shutout otherwise.  Jury is still out for late January and February.  Could stay warm(sort of has that feel right now...but that is not scientific) or could flip on a dime.  I don't think many were expecting(I wasn't) a PV to set-up shop over Alaska - that is going to create havoc with predicted seasonal timelines.  And again, the Alaska deal can release piece of the PV southeastward.  We have seen that from time to time on the cold prone GFS.  

[TellicoWx]

I stated this yesterday and it somewhat bears repeating.  The reason folks like weak Nino patterns is that there is quite of bit of energy in they system.  It is one of those types of wx patterns where it can and does snow during an otherwise warm pattern.  Something I also noted is that there are two(chicken and egg) camps regarding potential for winter wx.

Camp 1.  Cold weather needs to be in place.

Camp 2.  Needs to be plenty of moisture in place.  

Two of the biggest snows that I have seen were during very warm but active patterns.  It was a shutout otherwise.  Jury is still out for late January and February.  Could stay warm(sort of has that feel right now...but that is not scientific) or could flip on a dime.  I don't think many were expecting(I wasn't) a PV to set-up shop over Alaska - that is going to create havoc with predicted seasonal timelines.  And again, the Alaska deal can release piece of the PV southeastward.  We have seen that from time to time on the cold prone GFS.  

Until the MJO can "reawaken" (for better or worse)...we are at the mercy of the meandering blue turd in the Arctic Circle (needs to move toward the Hudson instead of feeding the GOA low)..if looking for sustained cold, everything has always pointed toward very end of Jan/Feb (analogs/mjo progression/teleconnections..etc). If looking for snow, then throw a dart lol. Cold pattern and snow are two separate things.

 

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[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Until the MJO can "reawaken" (for better or worse)...we are at the mercy of the meandering blue turd in the Arctic Circle (needs to move toward the Hudson instead of feeding the GOA low)..if looking for sustained cold, everything has always pointed toward very end of Jan/Feb (analogs/mjo progression/teleconnections..etc). If looking for snow, then throw a dart lol. Cold pattern and snow are two separate things.

 

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Yeah, snow is a weird deal at this latitude.  Doesn't take much to get us to normal.  I am sure big coastals have a large say in TRI's snow averages, and it only takes one of those.  I got 12" of snow at my house last year during early December.  That was pretty much it, but that got me pretty close to a normal winter with one storm.  My bushes still look terrible almost twelve months later.  LOL.  And temps finished well AN with near normal snowfall.

If the MJO rolls into 5/6, the blue monstrosity is going to start taking a beating.  What would be wild is for that super charged, cold air mass to get dislodged(the QBO and MJO argue for that...just no evidence of that yet).  Not sure it is likely, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that the entire thing could get sent to lower latitudes.  Wherever it goes, it is going to break some record lows.  Fall pattern was very warm, and then took about 2-3 weeks to move to a very cold pattern in November.  Something similar would not surprise me in the least.  I just don't like near record warm temps in the heart of winter.   

[Carvers Gap]

12 GFS definitely continues its trend of being cold(er).  Is it right?  The CMC will have none of it and is very warm.  It has been an outlier in the LR for about a month - wicked cold bias.  That said, it did spot the November cold flip well before any other model.  Problem is that it does not fit its recent MJO trend.  It is going to need some support in the medium and LR before I give it any weight.  So, is it still crying wolf or is it on to something?  Hoping for a Christmas miracle over the next 36 hours!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

UKMET looked like it might be trying to do something similar to the 12z CMC with a big upper low around new years eve:

CMC:

UKMET:

Mayhaps the Euro will give us a present today? 

[Carvers Gap]

FRD has some going IOD stuff in the MA forum.  It is falling which we new, but had huge values during early winter.  

Here is one thing that I notice in recent modeling...the ensembles seem agree too much with the actual operational.  That characteristic alone is making it difficult to cull out bad operational model runs.  Ideally, the ensemble should not bounce around like the operational.  The GEFS is all over the place. One run it will look poised to release bitterly cold air...next it is an entirely warm NA continent.   Let's see if we can get something to buy into the 12z GFS/GEFS suite.  So far, no takers.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

UKMET looked like it might be trying to do something similar to the 12z CMC with a big upper low around new years eve:

Mayhaps the Euro will give us a present today? 

Good find.  Definitely a window around that time frame...

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

UKMET looked like it might be trying to do something similar to the 12z CMC with a big upper low around new years eve:

CMC:

UKMET:

Mayhaps the Euro will give us a present today? 

12z GFS basically had it, but its progressive bias might have washed it out.  And right there is how it can snow during a warm pattern and why there is a camp 2 regarding winter weather.  Some years, we can't buy a storm...others we seem to hit even during warm patterns.  I have mixed emotions on this one with family traveling back from Pasadena during the early January winter wx window.  What you all need me to do is buy a ticket to the Rose Bowl Parade and that will guarantee a HECS!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Actually 0z Euro wasn't too far off either:

[TellicoWx]

12 GFS definitely continues its trend of being cold(er).  Is it right?  The CMC will have none of it and is very warm.  It has been an outlier in the LR for about a month - wicked cold bias.  That said, it did spot the November cold flip well before any other model.  Problem is that it does not fit its recent MJO trend.  It is going to need some support in the medium and LR before I give it any weight.  So, is it still crying wolf or is it on to something?  Hoping for a Christmas miracle over the next 36 hours!

MJO has the most influence on the PNA/NAO...since going into the low amp/COD, the PNA has looked the way it should (no sustainability...looks like a rollercoaster between +/-)...one thing the GFS has been doing to get it's cold is meandering the TPV away from Alaska/ W. Canada.

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[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Actually 0z Euro wasn't too far off either:

And one takes into account that it likes to over-amp things....definitely a window to watch and maybe for the next couple of days after that even.  You upslope folks might do well in its wake.  I don't think the GLs are frozen over yet.

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

MJO has the most influence on the PNA/NAO...since going into the low amp/COD, the PNA has looked the way it should (no sustainability...looks like a rollercoaster between +/-)...one thing the GFS has been doing to get it's cold is meandering the TPV away from Alaska/ W. Canada.

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I think when we look back, the abnormally high IOD is going to have been a major player in this warm month.  Now frd in the MA forum has an updated report on the quickly falling index.  Question is...how much lag time does that index have before its effects hit modeling?  No idea.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro lived up to its nickname of Dr No.

[John1122]

The conflicting MJO likely accounts for a lot of the model flipping around. I read recently that a large part of the EPS was based on the MJO prediction. With the MJO showing conflicting phases it's likely keying on one or the other and rolling from there.

[John1122]

Can very much get onboard with this look just after New Years on the Euro. Polar Vortex is split and and west best -NAO is popping up.

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

Can very much get onboard with this look just after New Years on the Euro. Polar Vortex is split and and west best -NAO is popping up.

Go out further and look at the AK

[John1122]

GFS goes BN at 132 and except for about 48 hours, stays BN til 384. Some well BN stuff in there. So it's reeling it in, just no idea if it's right or not. 

[weathertree4u]

22 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Most years, yes.  However, his daily stuff is usually pretty good.  I know a bunch of folks don't like him, but I like they guy.  His seasonal forecasts have not been great, and one could make a case that is to drive clicks.  That said, seasonal forecasting is a total crapshoot for pretty much anyone.  For example, I bet very few foresaw the PV tightening up over Alaska.  His mistake this year was cooling his December forecast at the last minute which was warm.  January will likely be warm due to some really warm days during the first ten days of the month - would take some serious cold to reverse that.

Was going to post this anyway(not a response to weathertree) so will post it here.   The QBO was negative yesterday.  That is significant in that it "might" mean that the PV is going to see some disruption.  Now, the value itself is not significantly negative by the trajectory seems like it is.  I am not sure what kind of lag there is regarding the negative value and PV disruption.  It is a "newer" index in terms of forecasting use, and we don't understand it as well as we need to.  When strongly negative, it has a tendency to correlate to PV displacement and high latitude blocking.  Not strongly negative yet, but something to watch.  I suspect it is not a driver at this point so it likely would have to act in concert with other drivers of which not many point to cold.  That said, if the MJO were to finally sneak over and hold in the negative phases...then, the -QBO(as long as it doesn't stall...been hovering at this value for a few days)might actually have an enhanced effect on blocking.  

So, if we are looking for positives(and they are few), there are a couple of big hitters that are in our favor:  deeply negative SOI along with a sharp drop yesterday and the QBO being negative at both 50mb and 30mb.  The SOI can sometimes foreshadow flips on modeling with big drops.  The MJO provides a counter to any flip.

 

 

Yea, don't get me wrong, I like him too and I like that he has the cold bent but I just wish that he was right more often lol

[weathertree4u]

One good thing about this season is that there are at least things on modeling to track in the long range. Placement may not be the way that we want it right now but honestly, what more can we ask for at this point? At least it is different from last year and chances are, this time next year, it will be different yet again!

[Carvers Gap]

And the SOI this morning is??? Hint:  Google...Long Paddock and SOI.