December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Apologies for what follows. I was actually trying to find a picture of the noctilucent clouds I saw before sunrise this AM, but what I saw when I logged into twitter prompted the following. 

 Webb has an intersting tweet this AM regarding the MJO and is having a dialogue with one of the important scholars in that area of research this AM:

Main take away for what we are talking about here is this from the article he links to:  

"A similar analysis demonstrates that the Madden–Julian oscillation probably exhibits spread across a range of spatial scales that would also require multiple EOFs for full characterization."

The author of the paper Webb links, Paul Roundy,  responded with some research published just last month in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorlogical Society:

Roundy offers this summary and as I read it critique of Wheeler's (I know most know this, but for people wondering, Wheeler is the scientist who developed the RMM plot,) revised formula for figuring out the MJO:

"Wheeler and Kiladis (1999) assumed that the spectrum of OLR data consists of red background noise plus signals of coherent wave propagation projecting above that background, and that wave signals along with some noise can be filtered from a spectral field dominated mostly by noise, retaining only regions of the spectrum proximate to selected peaks above an estimated background where signal is stronger. To diagnose the favoured bands, they assumed a null hypothesis that the entire spectrum represented red noise. This assumption implies that the null background spectrum includes the same amount of power as the original spectrum." 

Conclusions that relate to what we are talking about:

"This result supports the hypothesis that the things we call convectively coupled Kelvin waves exist over a much broader region of the spectrum than the normalized peak, with the strongest similar signals occurring at lower frequencies, and that these signals overlap in the spectrum with the things we identify as MJO events.

These results imply that tropical meteorologists need to rethink how we diagnose convectively coupled equatorial waves and the MJO to be more inclusive to the full range of disturbances actually observed."

TL;DR: The RMM is not the whole story, especially in a global regime of a lot of conflicting signals.  As Carver's argued for above, some caution is needed here. Don't take this paper as an argument that the RMM is wrong. It is neither more right or wrong than it was an hour ago before I read the above. In fact, on the surface there does look to be some moderately healthy convection in the MJO phase 6 region:

But also on the surface there also appears to be equally healthy convection in phase 1/2 regions:

Webb has really put himself out there (may have even burnt some professional bridges on the twitterscape) arguing for a west Modoki El Nino this year, so he has a vested interest. But as spread out as convection has been and with conflicting signals and NWP (models) struggling, the idea of multiple, conflicting signals is an appealing way to read where we're at in the N. hemisphere right now. 

I really like that the EPS:

and the GEFS:

give us the TPV again at the end of their runs and the GEFS even gives us that trough east of Hawaii that seems to correlate to some of our best storms. 

 

[TellicoWx]

Apologies for what follows. I was actually trying to find a picture of the noctilucent clouds I saw before sunrise this AM, but what I saw when I logged into twitter prompted the following. 
 Webb has an intersting tweet this AM regarding the MJO and is having a dialogue with one of the important scholars in that area of research this AM:
[/url] Main take away for what we are talking about here is this from the article he links to:  
"A similar analysis demonstrates that the Madden–Julian oscillation probably exhibits spread across a range of spatial scales that would also require multiple EOFs for full characterization."
The author of the paper Webb links, Paul Roundy,  responded with some research published just last month in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorlogical Society:
Roundy offers this summary and as I read it critique of Wheeler's (I know most know this, but for people wondering, Wheeler is the scientist who developed the RMM plot,) revised formula for figuring out the MJO:
"Wheeler and Kiladis (1999) assumed that the spectrum of OLR data consists of red background noise plus signals of coherent wave propagation projecting above that background, and that wave signals along with some noise can be filtered from a spectral field dominated mostly by noise, retaining only regions of the spectrum proximate to selected peaks above an estimated background where signal is stronger. To diagnose the favoured bands, they assumed a null hypothesis that the entire spectrum represented red noise. This assumption implies that the null background spectrum includes the same amount of power as the original spectrum." 
Conclusions that relate to what we are talking about:
"This result supports the hypothesis that the things we call convectively coupled Kelvin waves exist over a much broader region of the spectrum than the normalized peak, with the strongest similar signals occurring at lower frequencies, and that these signals overlap in the spectrum with the things we identify as MJO events.
These results imply that tropical meteorologists need to rethink how we diagnose convectively coupled equatorial waves and the MJO to be more inclusive to the full range of disturbances actually observed."
TL;DR: The RMM is not the whole story, especially in a global regime of a lot of conflicting signals.  As Carver's argued for above, some caution is needed here. Don't take this paper as an argument that the RMM is wrong. It is neither more right or wrong than it was an hour ago before I read the above. In fact, on the surface there does look to be some moderately healthy convection in the MJO phase 6 region:

But also on the surface there also appears to be equally healthy convection in phase 1/2 regions:

Webb has really put himself out there (may have even burnt some professional bridges on the twitterscape) arguing for a west Modoki El Nino this year, so he has a vested interest. But as spread out as convection has been and with conflicting signals and NWP (models) struggling, the idea of multiple, conflicting signals is an appealing way to read where we're at in the N. hemisphere right now. 
I really like that the EPS:

and the GEFS:

give us the TPV again at the end of their runs and the GEFS even gives us that trough east of Hawaii that seems to correlate to some of our best storms. 
 

Research data was presented at an AMS Con that lends support to what was presented in the RMS data. If I remember the paper and slide correctly, basically the OLR from Rossby waves can create flare ups in convection along areas we typically consider MJO areas. It gives the RMM a false sense that the MJO is in a different location, but in reality it had been propagating eastward (just weaker than the convection created by the Rossby/OLR)...basically the MJO is masked. That's the issue with taking the RMM verbatim...we are just at the tip of the iceberg as far as understanding QBO/MJO/Rossby/OLR interaction, still need tons of funding for the research needed.

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

If I'm reading Webb right, and lord knows I may not be, he is arguing that we will see convection in areas like the MC and Western Pac that normally would normally look on the surface like they would lead to La Nina like conditions, actually lead to El Nino like conditions regarding the 500 mb pattern over North America. 

He was a little more explicit about it on Southernwx and 33 and Rain (although apparently they have spies looking for people copying info posted there, so I won't be more specific) and on 33 Masiello seemed to agree, at least that the RMM MJO plot wasn't the whole story, but then again, you could probably say that about the RMMs MJO plot at any time, so typically ambiguous for him. 

[TellicoWx]

If I'm reading Webb right, and lord knows I may not be, he is arguing that we will see convection in areas like the MC and Western Pac that normally would normally look on the surface like they would lead to La Nina like conditions, actually lead to El Nino like conditions regarding the 500 mb pattern over North America. 

Would have to loop satellite back to where there was a clear signal of the MJO and filter out the other convective flareups (while still following the MJO eastward) to see where the MJO truly is. Webb refers to it as Kelvin waves...but research considers it generated from OLR generated from Rossbys. Webb could very well be correct on how this plays into generating some type of Modoki during La Nina like conditions..or he could fall flat on his face. There's just not enough research that has been completed in this area..the recognition and studies for Rossby/OLR masking MJOs have only started to be completed in the last year (and there was still a lot of unanswered questions in those studies)...same with the QBOEM's influence in enhancing the MJO as it propagates over the MC.

 

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[TellicoWx]

There's also research showing this interference convection can impede the MJO (slowing/stalling it)..once the interference begins to subside, the MJO can quickly finish its propagation eastward.

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[Carvers Gap]

48 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

That is QBOEM...the Easterly winds have taken over at the mid latitudes, while the westerlies have weakened to near zero. As the stronger easterlies propagate downwards, QBOEL when the easterly wind is strongest in lower levels, the westerly wind will flip at top and start increasing (as the lower easterlies begin weakening (QBOWM). The cycle of the QBO. QBOEM has research data supporting the QBO have a greater influence in helping the MJO increase convection over the MC.

 

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Descending simply means moving down to lower altitudes.  Check.  So, looks like a preponderance of high altitude winds in that area of the world have switched to the east.  Looks like it has almost flipped at 30 which has decent correlation to high latitude blocking of which were are seeing some signs now in the longer range.  Last year, the positive QBO(westerly) was taking over and I think that had something to do with our warm second half of winter(that and the SSW that dumped West).  As Jeff has noted, the actually movement of the index is likely the trigger vs the actually raw negative or positive number....though, it going negative is not going to hurt.  There is also some research that indicates that solar cycle state also influences the QBO.  In other words, it behaves differently(quite differently) during maxs and mins which is why sometimes the QBO doesn't line up cleanly with surface weather.  But in general, very good sign.

[Carvers Gap]

@TellicoWx, you need to post more.  LOL.  That is some good stuff on the QBO, MJO,...stuff.  You are bringing it this morning.  You too, Holston.

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

EPS is still looking like we end the warmth around New Years and there's beginning to be some EPS ens support for something wintry in the 12-31 to 1-3 timeframe.

Good trends for the past day for sure!

[TellicoWx]

If the MJO is stalling due to the convective interference, then it should have a sharper loop and continue eastward. But with it being masked...the RMM could mistake the convection for MJO impulse..overreacting and taking it on a bigger loop into 4/5 before correcting.

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[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

If the MJO is stalling due to the convective interference, then it should have a sharper loop and continue eastward. But with it being masked...the RMM could mistake the convection for MJO impulse..overreacting and taking it on a bigger loop into 4/5 before correcting.

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There have been several MJO forecasts already this season that have wanted to take it into the warm phases...and it doesn't verify there.  Interesting conversation about the potential issues with the MJO interference and forecast issues.  And I do think the global models do take into account the MJO itself which might be why we have seen so much variation in their potential outcomes.  I have simply resorted to looking at the satellite for the Indian Ocean and MC regions.  

[TellicoWx]

There have been several MJO forecasts already this season that have wanted to take it into the warm phases...and it doesn't verify there.  Interesting conversation about the potential issues with the MJO interference and forecast issues.  And I do think the global models do take into account the MJO itself which might be why we have seen so much variation in their potential outcomes.  I have simply resorted to looking at the satellite for the Indian Ocean and MC regions.  

Agree, if the RMM is having issues locating the actual MJO, then LR modeling will continue to have these back and forth flips. Still think the modeling is rushing the flip a little bit (even if the MJO loop is tighter). Interested to see if Webb's theory on the Modoki can form..just another piece to the puzzle lol.

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[TellicoWx]

Descending simply means moving down to lower altitudes.  Check.  So, looks like a preponderance of high altitude winds in that area of the world have switched to the east.  Looks like it has almost flipped at 30 which has decent correlation to high latitude blocking of which were are seeing some signs now in the longer range.  Last year, the positive QBO(westerly) was taking over and I think that had something to do with our warm second half of winter(that and the SSW that dumped West).  As Jeff has noted, the actually movement of the index is likely the trigger vs the actually raw negative or positive number....though, it going negative is not going to hurt.  There is also some research that indicates that solar cycle state also influences the QBO.  In other words, it behaves differently(quite differently) during maxs and mins which is why sometimes the QBO doesn't line up cleanly with surface weather.  But in general, very good sign.

Singapore station is where most of the data is collected for the QBO research. Most of the current research is focused on the MC (with a correlation showing QBOEM enhances convection there while QBOWM suppresses it). My question is what is the effect of other areas outside the MC and since we are in QBOEM is it also helping to enhance convection basin wide (which only helps create more interference). Something else that is interesting is the data shows QBOEM has the exact opposite effect on the MC during spring/summer when compared to boreal winter..there is zero understanding as to why. 

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

My question is what is the effect of other areas outside the MC and since we are in QBOEM is it also helping to enhance convection basin wide (which only helps create more interference).

 

49 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

There is also some research that indicates that solar cycle state also influences the QBO.  In other words, it behaves differently(quite differently) during maxs and mins which is why sometimes the QBO doesn't line up cleanly with surface weather.

I don't know if y'all keep up with NCHailstorm in the SE, but he had some theories last year about the solar wind impacting the convection. Do y'all think that has anything to do with what we're talking about too? 

[jaxjagman]

MJO by the RMMS continue to show it going into phase 6,seems still they are having a tough go with the signal which seems destructive from Rossby/Kelvin Waves.The GEFS today looks more progressive.

The EPS did look quite nice,lets hope it continues to show this

[TellicoWx]

I don't know if y'all keep up with NCHailstorm in the SE, but he had some theories last year about the solar wind impacting the convection. Do y'all think that has anything to do with what we're talking about too? 

Mixed research results using the Top Down Approach since the 80s..some of the more recent research points to a larger connection between solar wind cycles and QBO effects over the Southern Hemisphere when comparing DJF. If you take that data and combine it with the QBOEM data on the reversal of QBOEM effects flipping in spring..makes me wonder if the Earths tilt is causing a propagation of influence between SH/NH (basically the closer tilt to the sun, the greater the solar wind influence).

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[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

If the MJO is stalling due to the convective interference, then it should have a sharper loop and continue eastward. But with it being masked...the RMM could mistake the convection for MJO impulse..overreacting and taking it on a bigger loop into 4/5 before correcting.

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Firgured the Euro would be completely different today

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS 850s:

500 mb pattern:

and precip:

 

[John1122]

• I found the AAM disco from SD and Webb interesting. Per them, it looks like we will flip to a favorable phase around Christmas per the Euro. It's unfavorable phase apparently caused the big SE death ridges in late season the last two years. Lots of good disco in that thread there and in here too. You guys should be scientists!

[John1122]

The New Years and beyond time frame looks like it's setting up very nicely if the EPS is to be believed. It's slid towards the look the GEFS was showing a few days ago, but starting maybe 3 days later than the GEFS. Crazy that the EPS flipped to the GEFS look right after the GEFS flipped to the prior Euro warm look.

[jaxjagman]

Last year on DEC.17TH the RMMS showed the MJO out of the COD(phase-4) and then going back into the COD the next several days later.Then on the 24th the MJO actually ended up out of the COD into phase 5.

RMMS are good tools to use, but can be very volatile at times.They are more usefull when you have a stronger signal than a weak one

[Mr. Kevin]

4 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Last year on DEC.17TH the RMMS showed the MJO out of the COD(phase-4) and then going back into the COD the next several days later.Then on the 24th the MJO actually ended up out of the COD into phase 5.

RMMS are good tools to use, but can be very volatile at times.They are more usefull when you have a stronger signal than a weak one

Hi jax. Can you tell me how to read the qbo chart from singapore again? Its confusing me because it dont show no forecast for the qbo moving forward. Not sure where it is now as in has it reversed fully at 30mb or 50mb easterly? Cant tell by the previous maps. Also, does anyone know where to pull up AAM charts? Imo, if it can go positive, we should be ok.

[Carvers Gap]

If you all don't care...I say let's have @AMZ8990 rename this thread to December and January Speculation Thread if that is cool.  I think most of the discussion will focus on late December and early January from here on out.   Lots of great discussion.  I am pretty much too tired to type a much else.  Great model trends during the past two days.  And to be clear, this is not a model flip IMHO.  This is just the potential pattern after the warm-up.  

[weathertree4u]

Looks like the same general pattern is continuing on overnight modeling - periodic cold shots, moisture chasing the cold, then warm up, then cool down; what am I am missing? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Don't think you're missing anything. That's definitely how the OP Euro and GFS looked last night.

What we've been looking for and talking about yesterday is still a little outside the operational models believable range. Ensembles are still showing it, but that's just a smoothed mean that looks better than it it did a couple of days ago. 

[weathertree4u]

18 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Don't think you're missing anything. That's definitely how the OP Euro and GFS looked last night.

What we've been looking for and talking about yesterday is still a little outside the operational models believable range. Ensembles are still showing it, but that's just a smoothed mean that looks better than it it did a couple of days ago. 

Gotcha - periodically a good look appears on the CFS but then is usually gone the next run - my perception is that eventually what we are seeing depicted in the ensembles should, should, eventually translate into the operational runs. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

my perception is that eventually what we are seeing depicted in the ensembles should, should, eventually translate into the operational runs. 

Agree, that is the hope! Although to be fair the GFS did try to give us an operational fantasy storm last night. I'll put it here so we can at least see teh possibility such a pattern could hold, even if the chances of this precise scenario verifying are minuscule:

 

For now, looks rainy this weekend with a well-nigh perfectly tracking upper low, if there were only some cold around. 

Moisture fetch waaayyyy into the Pacific. 

[weathertree4u]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Agree, that is the hope! Although to be fair the GFS did try to give us an operational fantasy storm last night. I'll put it here so we can at least see teh possibility such a pattern could hold, even if the chances of this precise scenario verifying are minuscule:

 

For now, looks rainy this weekend with a well-nigh perfectly tracking upper low, if there were only some cold around. 

Moisture fetch waaayyyy into the Pacific. 

Yea and then it took it away in the next run lol 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

In the mean time I hope we all like rain in the eastern valley, N. GA and N. AL. RGEM out preciping the NAM:

[weathertree4u]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

In the mean time I hope we all like rain in the eastern valley, N. GA and N. AL. RGEM out preciping the NAM:

Keep that! We had about 5" Monday!

[jaxjagman]

EPS has rain and snow next weekend,Euro on the other hand is starting to resemble the last severe weather event recently