December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[Mr. Kevin]

This is euro and eps depiction of mjo. Still in COD but seems to move towards the warm phases. Hopefully it will be on the move other than the COD. 

[jaxjagman]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

 

The Euro has a bias when it gets into the WP,especially when it gets into P6

[Carvers Gap]

57 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

This is euro and eps depiction of mjo. Still in COD but seems to move towards the warm phases.

Also, the GEFS/GFS is trying to push into cold phases. IMHO, the EPS/Euro is handling the MJO better though they did miss badly a few weeks ago.  However, now that we are leaving shoulder season, the EPS will often run circles around the American model. 

And a good rule of thumb about the MJO...if we are talking about it, the pattern is not great.  LOL.  

[Carvers Gap]

The dropping SOI likely means the MJO hustles through any warm phases as well. The SOI drop, if it maintains, is a big deal.

[Mr. Kevin]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

Also, the GEFS/GFS is trying to push into cold phases. IMHO, the EPS/Euro is handling the MJO better though they did miss badly a few weeks ago.  However, now that we are leaving shoulder season, the EPS will often run circles around the American model. 

And a good rule of thumb about the MJO...if we are talking about, the pattern is not great.  LOL.  

I agree CARVER. The IOD is hurting us unfortunately. 

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The dropping SOI likely means the MJO hustles through any warm phases as well. The SOI drop, if it maintains, is a big deal.

Isn't there a way to tell how the soi may transpire?

[Mr. Kevin]

8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

The Euro has a bias when it gets into the WP,especially when it gets into P6

Just like the gefs has a bias to emerge into the 8-2 phases too quickly. Especially when initialization is in the IO.

[jaxjagman]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Also, the GEFS/GFS is trying to push into cold phases. IMHO, the EPS/Euro is handling the MJO better though they did miss badly a few weeks ago.  However, now that we are leaving shoulder season, the EPS will often run circles around the American model. 

And a good rule of thumb about the MJO...if we are talking about, the pattern is not great.  LOL.  

Don't think that is right.The Euro seems to show a more suppressed MJO going into the Maritime along with a potential KW moving through the same region the same time it wants to show the MJO into the Maritime

[Mr. Kevin]

Just now, jaxjagman said:

Don't think that is right.The Euro seems to show a more suppressed MJO going into the Maritime along with a potential KW moving through the same region the same time it wants to show the MJO into the Maritime

Are these maps usually pretty accurate? What does all this mean jax if it happens?

[jaxjagman]

10 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Are these maps usually pretty accurate? What does all this mean jax if it happens?

No they aren't totally accurate especially in the long range,but if i were to bet on the MJO between the GEFS and Euro i'd put my money on the GEFS being closer

[John1122]

We will see how it goes, but the week of Christmas to New Years looks like a -EPO/-NAO with the PNA heading from negative towards neutral. The AO looks to go modestly negative too. If we can reel all those in, the warmth should end towards week 2.5/3. 

[jaxjagman]

If you ask me ,there really is signs the MJO is is going to get stronger signals towards the end of the year.I just like to use these maps on a 3-day forecast to get a better view,but if you expand it to even 5 days you can right now see the MJO signal get stronger into Africa."IF" the +IOD does start to streghten once again,pic above ,even tho the PV is getting hit it might go back towards Eurasia once again with wave 2 getting broke down

[Carvers Gap]

I waffle back and forth on the EPS MJO...it has been less than stellar this year.   However, it was much better than the GEFS last year as winter settled in.  I lean EPS right now.  GEFS has whiffed on the cold December it has had depicted in the LR.   Hopefully things change soon.  Every day that pattern in the Pacific holds is a problem that just gets that much bigger. 

[Mr. Kevin]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I waffle back and forth on the EPS MJO...it has been less than stellar this year.   However, it was much better than the GEFS last year as winter settled in.  I lean EPS right now.  GEFS has whiffed on the cold December it has had depicted in the LR.   Hopefully things change soon.  Every day that pattern in the Pacific holds is a problem that just gets that much bigger. 

Right now, it's still in the COD, at least based on the RMM charts. I really think that it may be entering the warmer phases quicker than most people think due to the Pacific not looking good. 

[jaxjagman]

Eiether way of the PV,seemingly wave two is going to get broke down and the PV will probably strenghten once again upcoming.

[TellicoWx]

If you ask me ,there really is signs the MJO is is going to get stronger signals towards the end of the year.I just like to use these maps on a 3-day forecast to get a better view,but if you expand it to even 5 days you can right now see the MJO signal get stronger into Africa."IF" the +IOD does start to streghten once again,pic above ,even tho the PV is getting hit it might go back towards Eurasia once again with wave 2 getting broke down

Some of the research from the Naval Academy Oceanography Division over the last year or so supports your idea Jax. A long way to go in this area of research, but the initial data when going back to 1980 has started showing a correlation between the QBO (when broken into 4 catergories) has a direct effect on how the MJO behaves when it starts entering the MC until it exits. We are currently moving from QBOWL into QBOEM. If the data holds up, QBOEM has shown a correlation to enhancing the MJO as it rotates thru the MC (current theory revolves around the cold/warm pool and shear between the lower and mid trop). Will be interesting to see how the models trend vs the data correlation.

Current QBO phase using the 4 phase...and Naval Academy findings presented at the AMS Con.

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[jaxjagman]

36 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Some of the research from the Naval Academy Oceanography Division over the last year or so supports your idea Jax. A long way to go in this area of research, but the initial data when going back to 1980 has started showing a correlation between the QBO (when broken into 4 catergories) has a direct effect on how the MJO behaves when it starts entering the MC until it exits. We are currently moving from QBOWL into QBOEM. If the data holds up, QBOEM has shown a correlation to enhancing the MJO as it rotates thru the MC (current theory revolves around the cold/warm pool and shear between the lower and mid trop). Will be interesting to see how the models trend vs the data correlation.

Current QBO phase using the 4 phase...and Naval Academy findings presented at the AMS Con.

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You can find these maps here if you didn't know

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#merraulat10

 

[jaxjagman]

We could see a cold spell if teleconnections work out like the post i posted in the banter thread.It still looks like wave2 will crap out and vault the PV into Eurasia tho upcoming

 

 

[Carvers Gap]

For those who harken back to last winter, both the 0zEPS and 6zGEFS have a quickly eroding(or even absent?) NAO in the LR with an EPO ridge that is far enough west that a western trough tucks under the EPO ridge...allowing for it to snow in the mountains outside of Los Angeles.  That may very well correct eastward at some point.  Normally, I don't keep an eye on the weather in Los Angeles...but the band is headed to Pasadena.  Within the next week or so, I might be asking you all to see what you think about the weather out that way regarding the Rose Bowl parade.    

[Holston_River_Rambler]

EPS a little more interested than of late in the 22nd's possibilities with that upper low. Blunderstorm and anyone in extreme NE TN might have a shot:

 

I think it's probably a 0 sum game with this one. It'll either knock it out of the park, or nada. Hopefully a fun one, either way. 

[TellicoWx]

For those who harken back to last winter, both the 0zEPS and 6zGEFS have a quickly eroding(or even absent?) NAO in the LR with an EPO ridge that is far enough west that a western trough tucks under the EPO ridge...allowing for it to snow in the mountains outside of Los Angeles.  That may very well correct eastward at some point.  Normally, I don't keep an eye on the weather in Los Angeles...but the band is headed to Pasadena.  Within the next week or so, I might be asking you all to see what you think about the weather out that way regarding the Rose Bowl parade.    

Jeff should love that lol...that's what lead to his 70s in Chatty last Feb

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[Carvers Gap]

9 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

Jeff should love that lol...that's what lead to his 70s in Chatty last Feb

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What is on the ensembles d10-15 is nearly the exact same setup that the West had which produced record snows last February. Pretty uncanny.  I do think the trough gets kicked out by the second week of January, but that is just an educated guess.  Christmas week looks very warm in the East.  I will add that I don’t really see the “somewhat less crappy” pattern moving up in time on modeling either.  Pretty much stuck at d14-15.   That trough that tucked into the northern Rockies last winter was there from February to June.  Hopefully the eastern Indian Ocean convection dies down as some have predicted.  Otherwise, Isotherm’s toasty forecast looks like money.  I do think it is growing more likely that January might be above normal for temps.  

[Carvers Gap]

Indeed, just looked at the Euro Weeklies.  The trough lifts out of the West and opens the door for very cold temps during the second week of January on the EC for about a week.  That is short-lived as the western trough reloads.  If the Weeklies are to be believed(big if), the eastern ridge is around most of winter with some cold shots breaking it down from time to time.  The good thing is that the Weeklies show a window for very cold air by the second week of January with the first week being a transition.  

[TellicoWx]

What is on the ensembles d10-15 is nearly the exact same setup that the West had which produced record snows last February. Pretty uncanny.  I do think the trough gets kicked out by the second week of January, but that is just an educated guess.  Christmas week looks very warm in the East.  I will add that I don’t really see the “somewhat less crappy” pattern moving up in time on modeling either.  Pretty much stuck at d14-15.   That trough that tucked into the northern Rockies last winter was there from February to June.  Hopefully the eastern Indian Ocean convections dies down as some have predicted.  Otherwise, Isotherm’s toasty forecast looks like money.  I do think it is growing more likely that January might be above normal for temps.  

If Naval Academy research is right or close..then as we go thru winter the IO convection should intensify as it moves into the MC

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[Mr. Kevin]

2 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

If Naval Academy research is right or close..then as we go thru winter the IO convection should intensify as it moves into the MC

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Is it time to cancel winter and be done with it? Looks like we will be chasing unicorns all winter. If we have to content with a western trough, i think we should. 

[tnweathernut]

Go ahead and jump if you want, but the winter bus will be firing soon.  Too much pessimism for Dec 16th.   Might be because of last year........ but the SST’s in the Pacific are not the same as last year and the SOI was solidly negative again today.  Once the MJO interference subsides I think you will see modeling react in a positive way.  Until then, enjoy time with family and a warmish Christmas.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Is it time to cancel winter and be done with it? Looks like we will be chasing unicorns all winter. If we have to content with a western trough, i think we should. 

No way.  We are stronger than that in the TN Valley forum.  Warm Decembers during an El Nino winter is par for the course.  Keep an eye on the that SOI.  That drop means there is about to be a ton of movement within the atmospheric circulation pattern.  That drop is exactly what we did not have last year.  Sitting around -15 today.  It the SOI was positive, I would be done...but it is not.  Way, way out there the Weeklies do hint another cold shot later in January(no way I trust that...just saying).  I could see a deal where we get one really good cold shot in early January that sort of lingers, warms up a bit, and then get another shot during late January and early February.  I agree with tnweathernut...no way I would throw in the towel in mid-December. January could be AN for temps because the first week of January might tilt the scales a bit.  The rest of the month might be seasonal or even slightly BN.  I still take Nino climatology FTW from mid Jan through February.   January is a tough month to forecast during a Nino winter, because it depends on when the transition to winter occurs.   Again, this is not last year, but it is remarkable the comparison.  Also, remember the tucked-in trough that we are seeing occurred during February last winter and not December.  When that thing went into place last February, there was not time for a shake-up.  The coupled Nino pattern this year will really fight any trough staying for months on end in the northwest, especially during the second half of winter.  We had a winter with Nina and Nino characteristics last winter...not this winter as evidenced by the copious amounts of rain.

All of that said, the warm Pacific does favor a really amped jet which does favor a northwest trough...I think we get our share of winter, but that will have to be heard from.  Last year was a weird year.  And these three years are not the same in relation to each other though there are some similarities.  Many forget that most of December 2017 was very cold.  It spilled into the following January.  December itself finished AN because of a warm spell mid-month.  From the last week of December to early January, we had a stretch of 7 days where we didn't event get above freezing.  It was just bone dry due to a La Nina.  

Lastly, warm winters do not always equate to bad snowfall years.  Cold helps for sure, but some of our biggest snows happen in relation to warm patterns(just prior, just after, or even right in the middle).  Warm air means extra juice!

And we always need to remember that our latitude wants it to rain most months....we live in the sub-tropics.

[Carvers Gap]

One last little note...it appears that the PV which was forecast to tighten-up may actually get split.  That is another change.  I had 3-5 weeks for the warm-up, and I still like that time range(which began yesterday).  Today, it looks like the three week time frame looks correct...but I wouldn't be surprised if models are rushing that a bit.  Some epic winters have seen flips after warm Decembers and which were followed by warm starts to January.  But who knows?  That is what makes this interesting.

[Mr. Kevin]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

One last little note...it appears that the PV which was forecast to tighten-up may actually get split.  That is another change.  I had 3-5 weeks for the warm-up, and I still like that time range(which began yesterday).  Today, it looks like the three week time frame looks correct...but I wouldn't be surprised if models are rushing that a bit.  Some epic winters have seen flips after warm Decembers and which were followed by warm starts to January.  But who knows?  That is what makes this interesting.

Carver, are you going by what matt hugo said? He mentioned the 12z euro indicating that possibility. 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, are you going by what matt hugo said? He mentioned the 12z euro indicating that possibility. 

I think I had to unfollow Hugo because he was posting so much.  LOL.  Either that or my mind filters him out.  Been several folks posting about it today on multiple platforms.