December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[tnweathernut]

The only weather stocks I am buying currently is variability and moisture.  No prolonged cold, no prolonged warm.  

We are into mid December and we have had three winter events to track.  We have also seen a couple of -NAO’s (one realized, one upcoming on modeling).

Unlike many years in the past decade this has felt like a fairly normal start to a winter season. Heck, several even got to enjoy post frontal snow, almost a weather unicorn these days. 
 

I think it’s only a matter of time before one of these variable looks offers another chance to track.  Much below average temps, as we head deeper into winter, aren’t needed to get it done.

Hope everyone has a good weekend.......

[PowellVolz]

The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS are worlds apart....maybe light years.  They eventually get to the same point...but those roads diverge mightily before reconverting in the LR.  I think their handling of the MJO is crucial.  While I like the GEFS in finding cold, when the EPS gets inside of d10 it outperforms the GEFS.  One models is going to be left looking pretty bad after this bout...If one can scrounge up some commonalities:
1.  EPO ridge returns late in each run.  NAO weakens quickly just like last time.  I do wonder if it eventually fires once Nino climatology is a little less hostile.
2.  Ridge comes east with wildly different depictions of its duration(I lean longer than the GEFS...)
3.  Lots of rain and Pacific air.  Lots of sloppy whether which is a hallmark of El Ninos in this area.
4.  Lots of whiplash with a wide range of outcomes possible even during the mid-range.

So a bunch of cutters?


.

[Daniel Boone]

Euro depiction of PV over Alaska is not good. However,  IF retrogression were to occur and drop/place it over the Aleutians then domino from that. Generally would need a strong ridge build in the AO domain for that though.  

    The Gefs placement of feature looks far more desirable and easier to better align a favorable 500 mb pattern.

   

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

 

So a bunch of cutters?


.

 

Seems like we have had some cutters well West along with a combo of lows taking the low road(but little cold air to support snow).  I think those storm tracks continue but with Pacific air as the source region.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

This Dec. 22 possibility is interesting for eastern areas and esp. those at higher elevations there. Don't think any model has it nailed down yet of course, but everything now seems to like the idea of a big cutoff upper low. Could bring someone a Christmas surprise?

For my location right now it looks like 35 and rain, lol, but even with that a big storm near Christmas would be fun to watch develop. Happy hour GFS gets the job done for TRI though. 

The EPS has the moisture, but is not nearly as enthused about frozen as the GFS or GEFS, for even a place like Holston Mountain:

But to be fair to GOOFUSv3, the Euro is now conceding that there could at least be an upper low. 

Kinda almost reminds me of a spring-type cut off upper low. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

6 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

 

So a bunch of cutters?


.

 

But I think we connect a couple of times (on the low road systems) this winter as it gets colder.  I will take Nino climatology for the win...mid Jan to mid Feb.  

[jaxjagman]

MJO continues to have destructive interference.Out into the Atlantic there are Rossby and Kelvin waves,there seems to also be a robust Rossby moving through the eatsern  IO.This is where the  GEFS shows the MJO signal in a couple days

[jaxjagman]

Also remember how Rossby and Kelvin waves work.Rossby waves move east to west.Kelvin waves moves west to east.Alot of question marks with the MJO

[John1122]

The model depicts rain overhead imby with a surface temp of 37 on the 22nd timeframe,  but the sounding shows this. 

 

[jaxjagman]

19 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The model depicts rain overhead imby with a surface temp of 37 on the 22nd timeframe,  but the sounding shows this. 

 

Should be snow with your elevation

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: CSV    LAT=  35.95 LON=  -85.08 ELE=  1880

                                            00Z DEC15   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SUN 00Z 15-DEC   4.4    -0.4     132    4396    26001                   0.00    
SUN 06Z 15-DEC   2.8     0.2     132    4886    25003           0.00    0.00    
SUN 12Z 15-DEC   3.0     2.7     131    6586    27003           0.00    0.00    
SUN 18Z 15-DEC   9.4     4.0     133    7544    18004           0.00    0.00    
MON 00Z 16-DEC   8.4     7.4     135   10437    16008           0.00    0.00    
MON 06Z 16-DEC  11.6     9.8     136   11305    18012           0.02    0.00    
MON 12Z 16-DEC  13.2     9.8     136   11081    20010           0.03    0.00    
MON 18Z 16-DEC  16.6     9.6     137   11971    20013           0.06    0.00    
TUE 00Z 17-DEC  14.3     9.8     137   10638    19014     RA    0.19    0.00    
TUE 06Z 17-DEC  14.4    11.3     137   10573    22006           1.16    0.00    
TUE 12Z 17-DEC   6.9     2.5     133   10706    30009           0.03    0.00    
TUE 18Z 17-DEC   3.2    -3.6     130    2616    33009     SN    0.00    0.00    
WED 00Z 18-DEC   0.7    -6.4     129    1900    34009     SN    0.01    0.00    
WED 06Z 18-DEC  -1.1    -5.9     128    1094    33006           0.00    0.00    
WED 12Z 18-DEC  -3.6    -5.7     128       0    29004           0.00    0.00    
WED 18Z 18-DEC   3.9    -4.6     130    2450    30007           0.00    0.00    
THU 00Z 19-DEC  -0.7    -3.7     129    1580    30004           0.00    0.00    
THU 06Z 19-DEC  -1.7    -1.3     129     835    27001           0.00    0.00    
THU 12Z 19-DEC  -2.0     2.3     130    7502    19003           0.00    0.00    
THU 18Z 19-DEC   8.0     4.5     132    8542    23005           0.00    0.00    
FRI 00Z 20-DEC   1.1     4.8     132    9365    22003           0.00    0.00    
FRI 06Z 20-DEC   1.0     5.5     132    9318    17003           0.00    0.00    
FRI 12Z 20-DEC   1.1     3.0     132    7786    20003           0.00    0.00    
FRI 18Z 20-DEC   7.0     2.4     132    7202    19005           0.00    0.00    
SAT 00Z 21-DEC   2.7     2.0     132    6228    15004           0.00    0.00    
SAT 06Z 21-DEC   2.6    -0.2     132    4758    17004           0.00    0.00    
SAT 12Z 21-DEC   2.8     0.1     131    4871    14004     RA    0.03    0.00    
SAT 18Z 21-DEC   3.9    -0.8     131    4288    14002     RA    0.14    0.00    
SUN 00Z 22-DEC   3.4    -1.9     131    3648    02003     RA    0.20    0.00    

 

[weathertree4u]

23 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 6z GEFS and 0z EPS are worlds apart....maybe light years.  They eventually get to the same point...but those roads diverge mightily before reconverting in the LR.  I think their handling of the MJO is crucial.  While I like the GEFS in finding cold, when the EPS gets inside of d10 it outperforms the GEFS.  One models is going to be left looking pretty bad after this bout...If one can scrounge up some commonalities:

1.  EPO ridge returns late in each run.  NAO weakens quickly just like last time.  I do wonder if it eventually fires once Nino climatology is a little less hostile.

2.  Ridge comes east with wildly different depictions of its duration(I lean longer than the GEFS...)

3.  Lots of rain and Pacific air.  Lots of sloppy whether which is a hallmark of El Ninos in this area.

4.  Lots of whiplash with a wide range of outcomes possible even during the mid-range.

Not really seeing anything in the long-range other than rain! 

[Carvers Gap]

I do think the system at 150 on the GFS probably needs to be watched.  The GFS is progressive which means that storm may get more wound-up.  It is an outside shot, but has some characteristics of a major snow storm.  I think places like NE TN and SW VA would have the best shot due to their prxomity to the Atlantic.  

[Carvers Gap]

OTH, the Euro and GEM barely even have that storm.  

The EPS with yet another warm 0z overnight run.  

What I am seeing is modeling having trouble getting rid of the warm pattern now which is not surprising.  That setup over AK and the eastern Pacific is a pain to break down and will take some time to do so.  The biggest problem will be the scouring of cold air from NA.  Definitely not a look one wants to see mid-winter.  The EPS is not moving up in time the return to an eastern trough.  Pretty much stuck at d15-16 and even that looks is pretty dicey.  Most operational models and their ensembles look warm after next Saturday - 65% AN and 35% BN type look.  .  The warm looks are no longer being pushed back and the cold looks are quickly becoming less numerous after d7.  

[Mr. Kevin]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

OTH, the Euro and GEM barely even have that storm.  

The EPS with yet another warm 0z overnight run.  

What I am seeing is modeling having trouble getting rid of the warm pattern now which is not surprising.  That setup over AK and the eastern Pacific is a pain to break down and will take some time to do so.  The biggest problem will be the scouring of cold air from NA.  Definitely not a look one wants to see mid-winter.  The EPS is not moving up in time the return to an eastern trough.  Pretty much stuck at d15-16 and even that looks is pretty dicey.  Most operational models and their ensembles look warm after next Saturday - 65% AN and 35% BN type look.  .  The warm looks are no longer being pushed back and the cold looks are quickly becoming less numerous after d7.  

Carver, what is causing the pacific and alaska to look the way it does moving forward? Is it mjo actually in the warm phases but the RMM charts dont show it? Thats my gut feeling. Probably phase 5 or 6 be my guess. 

[TellicoWx]

To me it's more of a intraseasonal pattern shift, the question is when it shifts how much does the enso state/mjo/teleconnections dull or intensify the warm effects...same as when it shifts back.

Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk

[Carvers Gap]

JB had a brief, but good post this AM.  How the EPS and GEFS are handling the MJO are worlds apart.  EPS is headed(crawling) towards 6 while the GEFS is headed for 8.  I give very little weight to the GEFS as hit has settled back into whiffing as we hit winter.  This is the time of year that I don't like being in the same boat as the GEFS.

As for seasonal change, I am leaning towards the western trough becoming the new and stable pattern for the next 3-5 weeks as mentioned earlier.  JB did mention that the SOI is now in negative double digit land.  If one wanted to find a glimmer of hope, the SOI tanked in November right before the big cold snap.  We really need models to begin changing the look over AK and the NW...the Pacific is about as bad as it can look.  If we lose blocking over Greenland, it is going to get very warm.  

What I don't like is that a warm EC is now becoming more and more prevalent on modeling, but things can and will change.   That doesn't mean wall-to-wall warmth, more like a 65/35 combo as mentioned earlier.  Maybe our biggest hope is that ensembles have been fairly bad after d10, but this hostile Pacific look just seems like it may have staying power...and I could easily be wrong.  

edit:  Make sure to know these comments reference the pattern after 150.

[Carvers Gap]

At this point, one could make a great argument that the pattern has already changed...TRI is +1.7.  TYS is 2.5.  CHA is +2.8.  Indeed, it can and does snow during warm patterns.  Looks to me like all three E TN locations will very likely finish AN or much AN regarding temps...and all three have received measurable snow.  I do think the pattern becomes quite hostile to snow after this weekend.  The 12z GFS has already backed-off the weekend system event...we will see if the Euro continues with the suppressed look.  I noticed that highs in the 70s could reach as far as Memphis with highs in the mid 60s in middle and west TN during Christmas week on the 12z GF. 

I do think the cold returns in January.  I have mixed thoughts as to when it returns.  I have said that beginning tomorrow, we likely will have a 3-5 week window of warm weather.  I still lean around three weeks, but could easily see a path towards this warm weather lasting well into the third week of January(or even longer) as we are in a new pattern that is more warm than cold...but not absent of cold.  I think the next two weeks will see building warmth over ares of the GC, especially Florida.  

We really need to see the EPS ensemble break ranks at some point from its previous runs as it seems locked-in now to a warm pattern and when it sniffs out a warm pattern....that dog usually hunts.  And the pattern the EPS is depicting is not easily broken down.  I have little to no confidence in the GFS as it is pushing the MJO into cold phases and the satellite date in the eastern Indian Ocean seems to indicate that the MJO would likely at some point move the MJO at least temporarily into warm phases - big edge to the EPS.  

Lastly, it is indeed remarkable how similar the temp anomalies are to last year.  Cool November...warm-up in December...Nina like conditions in the eastern Pacific.  That said...I think the QBO will likely give us a shot at blocking in the Atlantic.  I have no idea when the Pacific comes back on line.  When we lost it last winter...it did not come back.  I am still banking on the Nino card and falling SOI to bring back cold after the New Year, but that is less certain than it was a few days ago.  Warm Decembers are calling cards for Ninos...so no surprise.  What does concern me is that the warm got started a bit late, and likely means it gets very close to the heart of winter.  Time will tell.  Hoping for a flip.

[AMZ8990]

Feels like we’ve been having the same convo the for past 3 winters.  Warmth that stretches into January (prime winter climo) and we Never really recover from it.  And before we know it February’s almost done and that’s that.  Guess I need to plan a trip to Colorado.  

[jaxjagman]

The RMM'S continue to struggle with the MJO signal.A couple days ago the GEFS showed it stronger getting intp P7,it's now backed off on that and keeps it into the COD more into P8.Euro on the other hand now wants bring the MJO into P6 but into the COD.The +IOD continues to be stronger than normal for this time of year and could possibly strenghten into the first of the year,but i wouldn't trust this right now.

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Feels like we’ve been having the same convo the for past 3 winters.  Warmth that stretches into January (prime winter climo) and we Never really recover from it.  And before we know it February’s almost done and that’s that.  Guess I need to plan a trip to Colorado.  

The LR ensembles are are pretty much terrible if one likes snow.  Now, the SOI tanking needs to be watched....that usually means something is afoot.  I do think we are in a new pattern with a trough in the West and ridge in the East for an undetermined amount of time.  The SOI was positive last year.    I wonder if the models start feeling that SOI if it continues to tank...it will really not want a trough in the West as that is Nina territory and that is not what the SOI is showing.  But if one just took the models from today(and didn't look at the SOI or anything else)...that pattern probably doesn't break until mid to late January if that.  The SOI today is -14.  If it dips further...just toss the LR maps.  

[Mr. Kevin]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The LR ensembles are are pretty much terrible if one likes snow.  Now, the SOI tanking needs to be watched....that usually means something is afoot.  I do think we are in a new pattern with a trough in the West and ridge in the East for an undetermined amount of time.  The SOI was positive last year.    I wonder if the models start feeling that SOI if it continues to tank...it will really not want a trough in the West as that is Nina territory and that is not what the SOI is showing.  But if one just took the models from today(and didn't look at the SOI or anything else)...that pattern probably doesn't break until mid to late January if that.  The SOI today is -14.  If it dips further...just toss the LR maps.  

Carver, again i ask what is possibly causing the not favorable Pacific? Lol. Just curious. I personally would like to see the mjo move to any other phase other than the COD. If things dont look good by mid January, i am throwing in the towel. I think we have a west based niño but maybe that's irrelevant at this point.

[weathertree4u]

4 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Feels like we’ve been having the same convo the for past 3 winters.  Warmth that stretches into January (prime winter climo) and we Never really recover from it.  And before we know it February’s almost done and that’s that.  Guess I need to plan a trip to Colorado.  

Exactly! Around here, if we cant get it done by first part of February, climatology starts working against us very quickly. 

[jaxjagman]

15 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, again i ask what is possibly causing the not favorable Pacific? Lol. Just curious. I personally would like to see the mjo move to any other phase other than the COD. If things dont look good by mid January, i am throwing in the towel. I think we have a west based niño but maybe that's irrelevant at this point.

West based Ninos are what you want in winter.Lately 3 and 1.2 are cooling and the cold pool in the subsurface right now is east of the IDL.it's nothing like last year

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, again i ask what is possibly causing the not favorable Pacific? Lol. Just curious. I personally would like to see the mjo move to any other phase other than the COD. If things dont look good by mid January, i am throwing in the towel. I think we have a west based niño but maybe that's irrelevant at this point.

Again, I have been fairly detailed about the Pacific problems.   SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific are non Nino-ish and have a slight Nina characteristic.  The Typhoon Tip discussion about having poor gradients between the Modoki Nino and the rest of the Pacific ocean is not good.  Normally, the rest of the Pacific needs to be cool enough so that the warmer SST temps in ENSO regions don't wash out.  The warmer temps in the NW Pacific are also an issue.  The convection in the eastern Indian Ocean are problems.  Also, we can't fail to mention the AMO in the Atlantic is positive.  Those are a lot of warm signals.  The only thing that I can find that points to cold is the Modoki look in the Pacific.  But those cooler temps in the eastern equatorial Pacific have a direct correlation to a SER.  What could change?  If the eastern Indian Ocean settles down, the MJO will likely move into favorable phases - not even close right now.  IMHO, if that one thing happens...we get a decent stretch of winter.  That single area was likely responsible to last winter's dud.  The SOI seems to indicate that the atmosphere is coupled with the Nino - it was largely not last year.  

I get that we are saying this is three straight winters.  It is not, but that argument tempts me often as well.  There are definitely a lot of similarities to last winter which was a weak Nina.  Two years ago is a totally different ballgame.  I think most folks this season have said, "December is gonna be warm. January will be a transition."  The snowistas among us(me included) will always hope against a warm month and look for a way out.  After all, many are here to hunt snowstorms.  That is exactly how I got started.  I am beginning to wonder if the "cold November analog"(equating to cold winters) package does not work right now with a warmer than normal Pacific.  Seems like cold in November has become a signal for a very warm December.  

All of that said, I still think we get plenty of winter.  The SOI was a major warning last winter as it was positive.  The winter behaved as a La Nina.  Right now, this December is straight out of the Nino playbook - warmish and rainy.  The very things that drive the pattern to be warm in December will force it to turn cold during the second half of winter.  I warned in my winter ideas last June(just look in the summer thread) that the West would likely be cold in December.  But make no mistake, we are going to have to go through some warm weeks to get to the heart of winter.  The SOI right now is our friend.  If it was positive...I would be very pessimistic.  Sometimes, if one watches certain indexes you can get a jump on modeling.  It is one of the reasons I have been saying it is going to get warm.  Just one look at the eastern Indian Ocean on satellite...one pretty much knew a warm pattern was inbound.  That is forecast I think to begin to settle down.  

[Carvers Gap]

I will add that my most hated winter patterns are super Ninos and moderate to strong La Ninas.  The 90s had some very strong Nino winters that were warm and rainy end to end.  Three winters ago I think was a solid La Nina - very warm.

And I forgot one thing...the QBO is likely going to be in a position to help in the Atlantic very soon.  I have a feeling that has already begun with a few pseudo bouts of blocking over Greenland - pseudo meaning short- lived.  In my mind a true block locks and holds and not transient like has been modeled.

The number one predictor of bad winters...latitude.  We can actually have very different drivers each winter and still get to the same destination which is a dud winter.  We live about as close to the equator as one can get and still get snow at this elevation.  It wants to rain here for most of the year no matter what the condition.  We get about a 4-6 week period most years where rain is not a given but still probable.

[Mr. Kevin]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Again, I have been fairly detailed about the Pacific problems.   SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific are non Nino-ish and have a slight Nina characteristic.  The Typhoon Tip discussion about having poor gradients between the Modoki Nino and the rest of the Pacific ocean is not good.  Normally, the rest of the Pacific needs to be cool enough so that the warmer SST temps in ENSO regions don't wash out.  The warmer temps in the NW Pacific are also an issue.  The convection in the eastern Indian Ocean are problems.  Also, we can't fail to mention the AMO in the Atlantic is positive.  Those are a lot of warm signals.  The only thing that I can find that points to cold is the Modoki look in the Pacific.  But those cooler temps in the eastern equatorial Pacific have a direct correlation to a SER.  What could change?  If the eastern Indian Ocean settles down, the MJO will likely move into favorable phases - not even close right now.  IMHO, if that one thing happens...we get a decent stretch of winter.  That single area was likely responsible to last winter's dud.  The SOI seems to indicate that the atmosphere is coupled with the Nino - it was largely not last year.  

I get that we are saying this is three straight winters.  It is not, but that argument tempts me often as well.  There are definitely a lot of similarities to last winter which was a weak Nina.  Two years ago is a totally different ballgame.  I think most folks this season have said, "December is gonna be warm. January will be a transition."  The snowistas among us(me included) will always hope against a warm month and look for a way out.  After all, many are here to hunt snowstorms.  That is exactly how I got started.  I am beginning to wonder if the "cold November analog"(equating to cold winters) package does not work right now with a warmer than normal Pacific.  Seems like cold in November has become a signal for a very warm December.  

All of that said, I still think we get plenty of winter.  The SOI was a major warning last winter as it was positive.  The winter behaved as a La Nina.  Right now, this December is straight out of the Nino playbook - warmish and rainy.  The very things that drive the pattern to be warm in December will force it to turn cold during the second half of winter.  I warned in my winter ideas last June(just look in the summer thread) that the West would likely be cold in December.  But make no mistake, we are going to have to go through some warm weeks to get to the heart of winter.  The SOI right now is our friend.  If it was positive...I would be very pessimistic.  Sometimes, if one watches certain indexes you can get a jump on modeling.  It is one of the reasons I have been saying it is going to get warm.  Just one look at the eastern Indian Ocean on satellite...one pretty much knew a warm pattern was inbound.  That is forecast I think to begin to settle down.  

JB said that the +IOD supported a phase 8-2 phase orientation but he always hypes stuff it seems. Here we go again. We have a ways to go. It is what it is.

[jaxjagman]

Just now, Mr. Kevin said:

JB said that the +IOD supported a phase 8-2 phase orientation but he always hypes stuff it seems. Here we go again. We have a ways to go. It is what it is.

It does

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Mr. Kevin said:

JB said that the +IOD supported a phase 8-2 phase orientation but he always hypes stuff it seems. Here we go again. We have a ways to go. It is what it is.

He has not been hyping cold this past week - been pretty warm.  He basically said the MJO is a major problem right now.  The IOD is a good indicator, but looking at the actual satellite is even better.  If there is a bunch of convection over there...it likely gets into MJO regions 4-6.  

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

He has not been hyping cold this past week - been pretty warm.  He basically said the MJO is a major problem right now.  The IOD is a good indicator, but looking at the actual satellite is even better.  If there is a bunch of convection over there...it likely gets into MJO regions 4-6.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Mr. Kevin said:

 

And?