Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 ....and even the 12z Euro operational is cold with very little sign of warmth. So, definitely some conflicting signals. The 12z Euro is quite cold around d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: surface temps for the CMC(not just the departures) Sorry had to run up to Johnson City just after that Euro post around 1 and just getting back to MoCo: for some reason weathermodels doesn't have the 2m temps for the CMC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 If we can get any help from the Pacific, I really like where the teleconnections are headed as far as the AO. The NAO should open the Gulf up with an active southern stream.Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 We are going to warm up,didnt mean to post this in the other thread.East Asia is fixing to warm up as the MJO moves into the warm phases,if its right.Think the +IOD is playing with the MJO signal but the Euro and GEFS both show on the RMM's going into the COD into the Maritime,You should see East Asia get more active as the MJO moves along the Maritime which looks to be possible the end of the run with what the Euro is showing. will happenYou should see a trough maybe around the 16th then maybe a stout -PNA,even the GEFS is showing this today with +epo/ao,chances are for a White Cristmas right now looks blah 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 GFS especially sees some tropical foring moving into the dreaded Maritime Continent, but out in (admittedly) its la-la land, realyy cranks it up over the Western Hemisphere: EPS on the other hand like restrengthening it near the (cue dramatic music du...du...DUUUUUUU) the Western Indian Ocean: Right now the Western Indian Ocean looks pretty tame and most of the convection is in fact in the 4/5/6 regions: There's some a little further east, but it is also south of the equator. I wonder how much the less positive pattern depicted by NWP in the long range has to do with current convection location? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The GEFS gives us some hope with its high latitude looks this AM in the LR. The EPS looks very warm during the d10-15 range and is locked-in it appears. Now, this week is a good example of something modeling missed. That said, JB mentioned that the EPS is doing very well for temps this week and likely next...meaning it has settled-in and has to be taken seriously. Let's see if the GEFS actually begins to roll that d14-16 look forward. If it doesn't, just a mirage. The actual warm pattern is now within ten days and approaching incrementally with each model run, meaning it's not being pushed back. How long will it be warm? I think a wide range is wise...my hope is that it is just a couple of weeks. My hunch(though not set in stone as these past few weeks have had much variability) is that we are looking a 3-5 weeks with the start date next week. So, maybe the cold returns consistently around mid-late January. Not saying that is the gospel...just what it looks like on modeling this AM. The GEFS would imply a temporary and shorter period of AN temps. The EPS would imply a locked-in, repeating western trough. Need to see the EPS begin to shake that look soon as what it is depicting will take time to actually break down. The convection in the eastern Indian Ocean combined with a recently positive SOI(daily)(*edit...dipped back to -4 today) is a strong signal for a western trough similar to last winter. Obviously this is not last winter and the convection is probably 2/3 of last year's event...So, looks like we will have to weather some December warmth which is expected, but I really don't like it coming mid-month. Likely means that warmth presses into January. We will see. Hopefully this will be just a winter of strong variability and no pattern locks-in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 One might be surprised that bearish Jeff actually thinks it could turn cold again as soon as the New Year. I'm inferring from / building on Jax's posts above. GFS wants to get tropical convection going over Indonesia which is a warm signal here. ECMWF might have a better handle with a weaker response over Indonesia. SSTs are closer to normal (prev cooler) but absolute SSTs keep dropping in Dec. Plus the IOD is still lit. China Met Agency has the China warming up from below normal to slightly above normal in a few days; then, warmer than normal next week. However they never go super warm and they trend back down. They agree with the ECMWF model, which cools down China faster than the GFS does. This only works at certain wavelengths, but I figure the Southeast US will similarly avoid a massive prolonged warm spell. Mild but not forever. Agree with Jax Christmas looks mild. Mele Kalikimaka. However I have hopes the New Year brings new chances of snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 Just glancing at storm tracks for the next 2-3 weeks. Looks like we have the front Tuesday night. Then, this weekend looks like an slp from the GOM with a low in the Lakes. Then, it looks like cutters OR systems running along the OH river valley. I did read some stuff this AM about the PV tightening up for a time. I doubt that continues for long given the ENSO state. ...And I do hold loosely to the idea that winters tend to balance out in NA relative to the current state. The West has had some fantastic winters during the last five years. I think it likely that shifts this direction at some point. This winter? IDK. We are also due a winter where we get a broad North American tough that is cold coast-to-coast. That type of winter may be due around the time the AMO goes negative. Again, it is very rare that winters don't have some type of warm-up. It is also fairly normal for Nino winters to get going around mid-Jan or even late Jan. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 The 12z GEFS looks remarkably like the 0z EPS. Not that a cave means much in the LR...but that is pretty much that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 I'm not seeing anything in the MJO that says blowtorch warmth. Until we get the QBO to go negative (easterlies), research shows the MJO has less of an influence on the PNA/NAO. Couple that with it going low amp/COD..other drivers are taking over the pattern (intraseasonal patterns/base enso state/normal system temp variance). Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 12z Euro is picking-up on some sleet/ZR in the higher elevations north of I-40 on Friday morning in SW VA(edit...sorry), NE TN and Plateau. Looks like it hangs on for several hours, especially in CAD prone valleys and western NC. Tnweathernut mentioned that high would not be easily moved if real. Looks like a good observation there. If the onset of rain is earlier, I wouldn't rule out some mischief in the valley. Not saying anything serious, but nuisance type stuff west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2019 Share Posted December 9, 2019 12z EPS implies that we "might"(famous last words) get some help from the Atlantic with AN heights showing up over Greenland. What is encouraging is that heights have lowered(not hugely) over the SE in response to that. Something to keep an eye on, and continues the odd trend of afternoon modeling being more conducive to winter than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Kind of an interesting look at a144 that might have to be watched around 144 on both 0z Euro and 6z GFS. Due to the weekend storm pushing the cold boundary south, it sort of acts like a temporary block. Due to that, the storm on Monday right behind it was forced south on overnight runs. The frozen precip boundary is now along the TN/KY border for a bit, and then WAA kicks it out. The trend was well south from previous runs....needs to be watched because the trend is pushing that boundary south. Also, there is a HP over the top of that system. Looks like some energy will cut west of the Apps and mess-up the thermal profile...but that look overnight was new and might not be done. The GFS high on the 6z run even forced the low south of the Apps(barely). Need to keep an eye on that trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 What will ultimately decide how far south the system at 144 can go will go will be the system in the north Atlantic around day 6. The 0z GFS from last night shows a legit evolution to what would be needed to force systems coming through the plains further south. The storm in the north Atlantic created a brief west based -NAO while also providing a slightly displaced 50/50. That made it tough for the plains system to gain latitude. 6z backed off this evolution for the storm in the north Atlantic, but it's not impossible to see this trend more positively in the coming days. Looks like the Pacific will go to poo poo for a bit, but my guess is we are just re-shuffling a bit and nothing will hit and hold through the end of the year and into next. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 It probably should go in banter...but that 1050 high at day 10 and that storm out of the GOM on the 12z GFS. LOL...that is just pretty much impressive. Wow. Man, I have seen a lot of storms on the LR, but that might be in the top 3 ever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 10, 2019 Author Share Posted December 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: It probably should go in banter...but that 1050 high at day 10 and that storm out of the GOM on the 12z GFS. LOL...that is just pretty much impressive. Wow. Man, I have seen a lot of storms on the LR, but that might be in the top 3 ever. The Day after Tomorrow-Movie would fit this storm well. Looks like some would be in for a crippling ice storm if it verified. The sheer size of the storm is amazing too, 11 states would get the business if it came to fruition, just for numbers sake. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Check out the 500 mb heights anomaly flip on the Euro: above to below in a matter of days, not sure I've ever seen a flip like that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 The 12z Euro is turning to a -NAO. Really close call at 144 now for winter weather in the mid-south. Should the Atlantic break the way shown i won't be surprised if we have another threat to track by the end of the week... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 10, 2019 Share Posted December 10, 2019 Many are touting the advertised strengthening polar vortex at HL will bring an extended mild pattern soon. IF this does happen, odds do favor that as most know but, not guarantee it. A strong -EPO and - NAO can sure mitigate any super resultant +AO mild pattern. Of course, even if those drivers are in place the IOD and MJO may either assist the +AO or the other drivers, depending on mode or phase. So, although the possibility of a mild last half of December appears rather likely attm. there is still some hope. Just a few uplifting thoughts for the snowlovers on here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 True a strong tight PV does not necessarily mean blow torch. Just as a weak PV is not guaranteed cold. If the strong PV translates to 500 mb and a +AO then odds of big cold drop, but models are conflicted on the AO. I have a feeling it gets colder the beginning of January. Warm spells have not lasted as long as progged so far this winter. The easing of the IOD, previously more lit, may reshuffle. However for now the trend is variable instead of constant warmth. I'll put at least some chips on colder than normal at least a couple weeks in January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 And another monster high w big storm showing up on the 18z GFS. Wonder if that finally works out at some point. While the GFS has whiffed of late on big highs, it does spot them before the Euro does in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 If the strat and trop couple, we phuked for a long time! No doubt. I personally would like to see the mjo start moving soon. People seem to believe the IOD weakening should help some for us. Ive never seen so many conflicts with models in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 If the strat and trop couple, we phuked for a long time! No doubt. I personally would like to see the mjo start moving soon. People seem to believe the IOD weakening should help some for us. Ive never seen so many conflicts with models in a while. I can't remember the posters name from a long time ago on the older boards, but he had a wealth of knowledge and stats (similar to John here) for the Atlanta area. One thing I will always remember with discussions with him, SD, Robert, and a couple others..was the large majority of snowstorms in Atlanta history involved the MJO going into the COD.Sent from my SM-S767VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Long range GFS op is all over the place at 500 from run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Tropical convection around the globe definitely looks CODish this AM with slight emphasis in MJO regions 4/5/6. To be fair, I've not been checking it a ton since we've had a few tracking events, but there seem to have been a few periods where there was really only convection in one area. Every area has a bit this AM. GEFS really wants to take that tropical forcing to the Western Hemisphere in the long range: EPS supports the status quo: IOD, according to Eric Webb's post on wxtwiter is weakening: and he thinks this will open the door for more western Pacific tropical forcing as time goes on. I guess we'll see how it develops but like I said above, interesting to see convection everywhere for now. Some of you may remember NCHailstorm had a good record with the MJO last year. That person is posting in the SE Fall thread and has been pretty good so far too using the sun and solar wind to diagnose what tropical convections will be doing. Of course in the medium range as Masiello noted yesterday there is going to be a cyclonic wave break in the 50/50 location that is going to create a -NAO. I know many of you know what this means, but if you're new and are like "what the &^%$#%^& is he going on about" The storms break (I guess this means they gain as much latitude as they can without weakening??) and pull up higher heights toward the arctic. Look at the circle and arrows This leads to higher heights over the Davis Straights. Exactly where those higher heights, the "blocking," the -NAO, develop determines the storm track (as tnweathernut posted yesterday), it can force energy south of us, which is what we want if we want snow. Looks like the GFS is trying to bring a lobe or the tropospheric PV south of Hudson's Bay, but it is the GFS, so who knows, lol. I wish I had access to the Euro forecast trend maps, but I don't think weathermodels has those. One thing I'm really trying to figure out now is how all this works together. How does tropical forcing AND its results or independent processes in the N Hemisphere work together to create our patterns? Writing about it helps me think about it, so sorry if I don't have any more concrete predictions. I've got a ways to go on that, lol. I'm just happy there is no sign of last year's endless MJO clsuter%^$* 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Tropical convection around the globe definitely looks CODish this AM with slight emphasis in MJO regions 4/5/6. To be fair, I've not been checking it a ton since we've had a few tracking events, but there seem to have been a few periods where there was really only convection in one area. Every area has a bit this AM. GEFS really wants to take that tropical forcing to the Western Hemisphere in the long range: EPS supports the status quo: IOD, according to Eric Webb's post on wxtwiter is weakening: and he thinks this will open the door for more western Pacific tropical forcing as time goes on. I guess we'll see how it develops but like I said above, interesting to see convection everywhere for now. Some of you may remember NCHailstorm had a good record with the MJO last year. That person is posting in the SE Fall thread and has been pretty good so far too using the sun and solar wind to diagnose what tropical convections will be doing. Of course in the medium range as Masiello noted yesterday there is going to be a cyclonic wave break in the 50/50 location that is going to create a -NAO. I know many of you know what this means, but if you're new and are like "what the &^%$#%^& is he going on about" The storms break (I guess this means they gain as much latitude as they can without weakening??) and pull up higher heights toward the arctic. Look at the circle and arrows This leads to higher heights over the Davis Straights. Exactly where those higher heights, the "blocking," the -NAO, develop determines the storm track (as tnweathernut posted yesterday), it can force energy south of us, which is what we want if we want snow. Looks like the GFS is trying to bring a lobe or the tropospheric PV south of Hudson's Bay, but it is the GFS, so who knows, lol. I wish I had access to the Euro forecast trend maps, but I don't think weathermodels has those. One thing I'm really trying to figure out now is how all this works together. How does tropical forcing AND its results or independent processes in the N Hemisphere work together to create our patterns? Writing about it helps me think about it, so sorry if I don't have any more concrete predictions. I've got a ways to go on that, lol. I'm just happy there is no sign of last year's endless MJO clsuter%^$* As someone has stated already, the operational GFS is all over the place right now, not sure what the reasoning behind that is but it is fun to watch it for the crazy solutions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 12 minutes ago, weathertree4u said: operational GFS is all over the place right now It's got a 1062 high at the end of its 6z run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 Biggest thing is that there are a lot of mixed signals in the LR. If one wanted to look for hope, the EPS broke a bit with continuity last night. Now, the look is not much better than before. However, the run-to-run trend and the actually 500 portrayal lifts the ridge out into Greenland. What that would do is allow a trough to reform in the East underneath it. In the LR, nothing much is gospel. However, if a model breaks once...not an unexpected blip. If it starts to waffle around, then changes are afoot which would be a good thing given its big ridge look from the past several days. As for the PV, it is tough to really know what it is going to do. Most winters it is a minor factor. With this being a Nino winter and warmth being transported poleward in a cyclical nature(not now), I wouldn't be surprised to see it get jostled more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathertree4u Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: It's got a 1062 high at the end of its 6z run! Yea that is good but it has a propensity to send everything to the lakes, I bet at noon that high will be gone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2019 Share Posted December 11, 2019 I should clarify...the SPV. The PV in the troposphere(TPV) does play a part in our winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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