December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[weathertree4u]

20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

In what way? 

If we don't get help somewhere this pattern we are in is fixing to suck IMHO.When the jet retracts back into East Asia this is going to build back the ridge into East Asia and keep troughs from going through,so our active pattern won't be so active,Basically it would look just like the GEFS is showing in the long range

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, weathertree4u said:

If we don't get help somewhere

Thus the discussion of the strat and to be fair the GEFS has just been knocking it out of the park so far. 

I think me and Jax were talking about totally different things. Also, the EPS looks totally different at that range. If you would prefer more negative takes for your morning reading, I can support that. 

[weathertree4u]

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Thus the discussion of the strat and to be fair the GEFS has just been knocking it out of the park so far. 

I think me and Jax were talking about totally different things. Also, the EPS looks totally different at that range. If you would prefer more negative takes for your morning reading, I can support that. 

Just posting thoughts, apologize that they are not as robust as others. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One of these days @weathertree4u Nashville will get a 12"+ storm again and when that happens I expect 6 months of optimism, minimum. 

[weathertree4u]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

One of these days @weathertree4u Nashville will get a 12"+ storm again and when that happens I expect 6 months of optimism, minimum. 

With all due respect, my posts are not intended to be negative, I am being realistic. I am sure that I could search the threads in this discussion or others and find some that would tend to portray others as negative, besides, we are getting off topic.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

I am being realistic.

Ok, specifically, tell me what is unrealistic about what I've posted? We can bring this back to pattern speculation by looking at the details and critiquing the specifics of what I posted.

I posted several maps that suggested the mid-week storm might over perform, but that the UKMET was on an island with how much precip it spit out as snow. 

I posted some maps that suggested the SPV was going to stretch out and possibly split. 

 

 Jax was saying that the East Asian jet would retract, using a GEFS map of the eastern US for support.  I see no evidence for that.

Looks fairly stout to me on the Euro and GFS in east Asia. 

But Jax is much better with things like the East Asia rule and I respect him, so I saw no reason to contradict what he said. Maybe he sees something I don't. 

 

[weathertree4u]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Ok, specifically, tell me what is unrealistic about what I've posted? We can bring this back to pattern speculation by looking at the details and critiquing the specifics of what I posted.

I posted several maps that suggested the mid-week storm might over perform, but that the UKMET was on an island with how much precip it spit out as snow. 

I posted some maps that suggested the SPV was going to stretch out and possibly split. 

 

 Jax was saying that the East Asian jet would retract, using a GEFS map of the eastern US for support.  I see no evidence for that.

Looks fairly stout to me on the Euro and GFS in east Asia. 

But Jax is much better with things like the East Asia rule and I respect him, so I saw no reason to contradict what he said. Maybe he sees something I don't. 

 

Last post I am doing on this subject. I wasnt saying I found fault with what you or Jax had posted; I was saying that realistically, for me, with my experience looking at things, I was confused. Will go back to reading and not posting lest we get into another back and forth. Goodness. 

[Carvers Gap]

At 282, the Great Cajun Blizzard of 2020 is unfolding on the 12z GFS.  Or should we just call it the 30A crusher?  

[PowellVolz]

Enough with the pillow Fighting


.

[Carvers Gap]

Happy Hour on the GFS has come one run early!  Model mayhem is well underway.  That is just total wildness!!!

Finally got a look at the CPC version of the MJO.  It has backed-off phase 6.  Dare I say it.  It is not out of the realm of possibility that the GEFS is actually going to score a coup on where it goes next.  The EURO corrected "sort of" towards the GEFS.  The GEFS version would be very cold.  I have noted more than a few times that this pattern evolution reminds me a lot of October to November.  Wavelengths are changing.  The pattern has been very warm, but has stepped down during the last couple of weeks.  It should be noted that American modeling handled the MJO better than the EURO. 

This will be a week full of marginal events.  Going to have to watch each one of them.  Time of day could be a factor.  

[Carvers Gap]

We will see where the ensembles take us, but both the CMC and GFS still have the arrival time for the trough around February 5th.  I am using that date so we know if the can is getting kicked down the road.  Tough not to like the synoptic set-up next weekend.  GOM Miller A is on both the CMC and GFS.  If we want snow, probably need the storm to strengthen some.  A weak system will likely be rain.  A stronger system likely results in snow this side of the Apps for someone north of I-40 in the eastern Valley.  Temps are most definitely not ideal.  What is encouraging is that there are multiple storms on both models.  An interesting feature with this weekend's setup is the piece of energy that dives into the back of departing storm.  It is on both the 12z CMC and GFS.  If we get blanked on the initial storm, it could sneak in and give folks some snow showers and light accumulations.   Keep in mind those little pieces of energy like to trend north over time.

[snowmaker]

Been lurking for awhile I live in north middle tn, new to this board. But I have been keeping up over here almost daily all winter. Seems like pattern is slowly stepping down, it does seem like most systems in long range all go south of us. I know that is always not a bad thing in the long range. I am hoping we can pull in some colder air,  I am hoping middle and west tn can cash in on a event of 2 also. Right now it seems like things are favoring more of the eastern part of the state but as wild as models are swinging even that is hard to tell. Anyway just wanted to say hello from Montgomery County. Let's reel us in a Tennessee snow.

[Carvers Gap]

LOL.  That is funny right there.  #subforumsnowhole

[Greyhound]

LOL.  That is funny right there.  #subforumsnowhole

Book it



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[snowmaker]

That is sickening to look at. Please be wrong. LOL!

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

Been lurking for awhile I live in north middle tn, new to this board. But I have been keeping up over here almost daily all winter. Seems like pattern is slowly stepping down, it does seem like most systems in long range all go south of us. I know that is always not a bad thing in the long range. I am hoping we can pull in some colder air,  I am hoping middle and west tn can cash in on a event of 2 also. Right now it seems like things are favoring more of the eastern part of the state but as wild as models are swinging even that is hard to tell. Anyway just wanted to say hello from Montgomery County. Let's reel us in a Tennessee snow.

Great to have you posting!  We have a great group of posters from your area.   Jump right in!

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting to see the 12z GEFS - always comes out earlier on Pivotal Weather.  Anyway, it builds the aforementioned EC ridge/SER(very late in the run) for about thirty hours and then beats it back down.  Overall, nice run.  Again, it has been noted that keeping the trough in place is going to take some special mojo.   Some warming is noted over the pole which likely means the PV might be displaced or be about to be displaced.  It cannot be overstated how much this SPV/PV disruption is going to cause issues in LR modeling.  Two springs ago (2018) the PV split and models never caught up.  

 

[Hilton01]

3 hours ago, weathertree4u said:

Last post I am doing on this subject. I wasnt saying I found fault with what you or Jax had posted; I was saying that realistically, for me, with my experience looking at things, I was confused. Will go back to reading and not posting lest we get into another back and forth. Goodness. 

Wxtree, I hope you do not stop posting.  I enjoy reading your posts comments thoughts etc..  Very often, your posts, and the reply’s that are given, help me to better understand things. So thank you for that. We all know it is so very easy to misinterpret meaning tone intent etc. in another’s written text in these type of forums/formats and I am sure, after reading the posts,  that that is all this is.  So let’s all stay here keep posting be friends and get along! For if we can not do that, how can we ever expect it to snow in the Tn valley again! 

[Carvers Gap]

If I hadn't already seen a head fake this winter, I would say that the Euro at 198 is in error diving into the Southwest.  No other model has anything that digs even remotely that much.  When it gets energy over the 4 corners, one of its biases is to dig far too much.  Certainly looks like it is doing that.  It may very well be right, but it does not have support from any other model.  It has scored one coup this winter with that look, so it has to be taken seriously.   But it has also historically missed on multiple occasions with that look.   Anyway, my interpretation is that is an error.   Additionally, its depiction is completely different at 12z than at 0z over Alaska.   Looks like it still will dig the trough in the East if it had about 36 more hours.  

[Carvers Gap]

All of that said, that is sort of how the 0z EPS works the eastern trough.  If the Southwest cut-off low is wrong(and again, huge Euro bias), much of the cold in Alaska would be ejected into the trough in the East.  Will be interesting to look at the control to see where it would have gone.  

[Carvers Gap]

And that cutoff is likely coming out of there at some point anyway...big storm if so.

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS looks good out to 180.  Looks quite similar to the GEFS and similar to its 0z EPS run.  Bout to find out how much support that Euro operational run has....

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Looks like the Control will probably have a storm as the energy comes out of the SW:

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, Hilton01 said:

Wxtree, I hope you do not stop posting.  I enjoy reading your posts comments thoughts etc..  Very often, your posts, and the reply’s that are given, help me to better understand things. So thank you for that. We all know it is so very easy to misinterpret meaning tone intent etc. in another’s written text in these type of forums/formats and I am sure, after reading the posts,  that that is all this is.  So let’s all stay here keep posting be friends and get along! For if we can not do that, how can we ever expect it to snow in the Tn valley again! 

@Hilton01not going stop posting for sure! Thank you for the kind words

[Carvers Gap]

Out to 234, trough is heading into the East slightly ahead of schedule on the EPS.  Some support for the cutoff but the strongly -EPO will kick it out.  But with the moderate possibility the Euro is up to its old tricks on the operational,  that operational run is probably not trustworthy after 198.  

By 258, very strong trough in the East...stronger than 0z.  Now, how long will it hold?  So we don't have a misunderstanding here, we know the possibility exists of the initial heading east and a secondary wave of cold diving West.  Let's see where this goes.

[Carvers Gap]

This run of the 12z EPS is really amped.  All anomalous features over NA are deeper.  

[weathertree4u]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

This run of the 12z EPS is really amped.  All anomalous features over NA are deeper.  

@carversgap i appreciate you translating the model and posting being sincere i really do!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think the key for the Ensembles is how they deal with the ridging that sandwiches the SPV. Because everything is so coupled, when you have the -EPO and NAO ridging, it percolates up to affect the strat. You can see it here as the yellows and oranges that correlate to the NAO and EPO regins in the arctic:

cross polar flow still there at the end, even more amplified as carvers said

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here's the 12z Euro strat:

 

[Carvers Gap]

Interestingly, the 12z EPS has a slight SER like the GEFS.   I find that interesting because if the EPS is caving to the GEFS, then it likely means the GEFS MJO might be correct with phases 2-3 which is a win long term win.  If one looks at the surface, EPS 2m temps actually beginning advancing cold air from the front range just like the GEFS.  And at this range, lots of things probably still going to change.  Good thing is the initial trough is still not track.  Past that...crap shoot with so many things changing.   Will be interesting to see where modeling goes after changes in the MJO today.