December/January 2019/20 Winter Speculation Thread

[Carvers Gap]

I feel confident be pattern is still on target to change.  The question is...what is ultimately the new pattern?  Sometimes what is actually the transition fools the best of us and the actual base pattern has not settled in...That said, I “think” modeling is now showing its hand.  Fortunately, there were not wholesale changes today as there were yesterday.  Looks to me like a classic Nino pattern with a bit of extra juice.  (This is where I thought we were headed last year).  The ultra cold solutions from last week didn’t fit climatology.  BUT the trough underneath a ridge in the East is textbook.  So looks like ensembles have another cold shot around d13-15.  All ensembles showed this at 12z.   That is probably our winter wx pattern.  Looks to me like this is a step down pattern like November.  Remember how long it took to finally kick out that heat ridge?  Same deal now.  I don’t see signs of a trough locking into the NW.  if anything ensembles show a BN heights in the SW which eject eastward.  As tnweathernut mentioned, always like to see storms entering the US in Southern California.  All of that said, we need the Euro operational to finally begin to show a winter like pattern.  There were some much above temps on the operational late in the run.

[Freezing Fog]

43 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

psuhoffman mentioned the EPS looked good to his southwest between days 10 -15,so I thought I'd have a look.

Almost every single member shows a storm here between day 10 and 15. member 47 showed 2 , lol

There were so many I had to make 3 gifs for them all. Every one of these is a different member, except one (member 47). 

 

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Happy hour GFS about to do what some of the EPS members did. May be a DGEX type snowfall for someone. 

[John1122]

GFS about to embrace the multiple storms outlook. Ice storm under 240 for Arkansas and West Tennessee and parts of the rest of the valley, major Miler A coming at 300 or so it appears.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Well, maybe not DGEX snowfall, lol, but still nice. I was thinking that second piece of energy was going to pop another storm. 

[weathertree4u]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Well, maybe not DGEX snowfall, lol, but still nice. I was thinking that second piece of energy was going to pop another storm. 

Interesting 

[John1122]

Well, if we see another run as good as that GFS run, I'll be surprised. Widespread 5-15 inches basically across Arkansas, the Northern half of Miss, Georgia and all the way to Upstate SC.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

GEFS looks pretty messy. Lots of cut off ridges and troughs:

Looks like a couple of members may also see that storm, but no shortage of energy hitting Southern Cal. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Obviously wish it was at hour <120, rather than 300+, but still not a bad look for an ensemble mean:

I do like that the EPS sees promise in that period too. 

[John1122]

I wish it was hour 6! I've seen storms look like that for 10 runs in a row on the Euro only to have them crash in the last 72 hours. The only take away is that we will have an active storm track in the climo peak period for snow, when we need the least help with ultra cold anomalies to see it happen. That's not been common in winter since around 2011.

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely some good trends at 12z and 18z on modeling and ensembles.  The good thing is that modeling did not continue trending with yesterday's shift.  

[Carvers Gap]

0z suite was quite unimpressive regarding ensembles.   Not going to belabor the point.  Just unreal how many times overnight ensembles look worse, especially the EPS.

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

0z suite was quite unimpressive regarding ensembles.   Not going to belabor the point.  Just unreal how many times overnight ensembles look worse, especially the EPS.

Not surprising buddy. Almost beginning to look like a 90's strong Nino pattern. If so, maybe we can squeeze one heavy wet snowstorm ala, Jan. 98 (upper NE Valley . Or Feb. 98 plateau area.

[Carvers Gap]

39 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Not surprising buddy. Almost beginning to look like a 90's strong Nino pattern. If so, maybe we can squeeze one heavy wet snowstorm ala, Jan. 98 (upper NE Valley . Or Feb. 98 plateau area.

I was watching JB this morning...so credit goes to his group for the following comments.  I will add some of my own spin as well.  He mentioned that the new JMA is depicting substantial subsidence over almost all of the areas that are considered warm phases of the MJO.  There is convection forecast in 8, 1, and 2.  But here is the problem, the Modoki El Nino is warm right in the area where phase 6 is.  So, what happens is the phase 6 areas have convection along with 8, 1, and 2.  He says that the null phase of the MJO being shown on the CPC might not be a null phase at all but actually be these two conflicting areas of convection that wash-out the MJO signal.  In other words, the MJO is alive and well and that the MJO is indeed not in the null phase at all.  It is in 8/1/2 and 6/7 simultaneously.  Going back to your comment, I think we have ENSO region 4 that is like bath water and is really acting like a super Nino for that area.  In the area closes to North America, we have what is basically a La Nina.  Both of those SST configurations are massive signals for a SER.  The good think about the JMA is that it has flipped cold in its Weeklies look.  Do I believe that verifies?  Nah. It did that last year and woefully busted.  I do think we see much more cooler weather, but will it be able to hook-up with any of these systems in the active STJ?  And yes, this is EXACTLY why I hate El Nino winters.  They are cloudy, rainy, and warm - most of the winter except for what many will correctly say are a few glorious events.  They often get here late and sometimes not at all.  That said, this upcoming pattern is a big hitter patten though it might not be a pattern that has sustained cold.  Just a parade of storms lined up which are getting forced south by that Hudson Bay block.  If we land one storm that is juiced, nobody remembers the crap temps.  I had hoped to never see those 90s winters again.  That said, plenty of storms line-up.  Let's see where it goes.

[Carvers Gap]

One last nugget...it appears the QBO is decently in the negative range at 30mb.  That would likely accentuate any late season blocking on the horizon.  Let's see if we begin to see some Atlantic blocking show up.

[Carvers Gap]

I think one thing we have learned is that if the waters are warm in the western Atlantic where MJO phase 6 is...need to temper forecasts from the get go.  LOL.

[Carvers Gap]

Well, the 12z Euro gets rid of the cutter at 204 and tries for a weak Miller A.  Problem...temps are MUCH above normal.

[Carvers Gap]

@144 the massive ridge in the East is back and remains(and strengthens) through 240 on the Euro operational.  Trough in the West.  Unreal.  Hoping that is transient, but surely does not appear to be so as it is barely moving late in the run.  Officially by all ensembles for the time from of Jan16/17 to 25...a head fake.  Temperatures in Quebec are nearly +40F with temps over the TN Valley at +20F with temps in the upper60s and approaching 70 by the end of the run.  

[Carvers Gap]

Other than the cold snap that lasts for about 48 hours, there is no change to the pattern over the lower 48.  The big Pacific Ridge is gone, but trough is solidly entrenched in the West and massive ridge in the East with temps later next weekend possibly eclipsing highs this week - if they verify.  The only silver lining is that the Euro operational sends the cold to Baja and that is a classic feedback signal.  But there is zero evidence on the operational that the pattern over the lower 48 has done nothing but relax.  Hopefully the EPS disagrees, but that is a prolonged MJO phase 6 pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

Our hope right now is that the 12z GEPS/GEFS are correct about where the pattern goes from d10-15.  We know those great looking patterns have not materialized inside of d10.  But it is all we have.  Maybe for once the Euro will be wrong.  LOL...right.   Anyway, for kicks and giggles take a look at the gold on the GEPS while knowing that look has not materialized even one time since November.

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS supports the operational but obviously muted.  A bit of a red flag is the drastic reduction in the QPF across much of North America.  Overall, the trend is for increasing heights over much of eastern NA.

[weathertree4u]

48 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z EPS supports the operational but obviously muted.  A bit of a red flag is the drastic reduction in the QPF across much of North America.  Overall, the trend is for increasing heights over much of eastern NA.

Which is not good I gather

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Which is not good I gather

No.  One of the big problems is the persistent ridge east of Hawaii.  That teleconnects to a trough in the West.  However, the trough over the Aleutians would teleconnect to a trough in the East.  Generally, the feature west of Hawaii wins...unless of course that big red ball of death is up there in the North-Central Pacific.  What is perplexing is that the GEFS and GEPS have left the EPS on its own.  Now, the EPS can and has taken on all comers and won on multiple occasions.  Snowgoose in the NE subform, thinks the Euro deal is a transient shift which I assume means that the ridge that is torching us during d8-11 is going to leave.  Of greater concern, these strong cold shots modeled in the LR are verifying as nothing more than cold fronts.  Very few things irritate me as much as big model shifts on ensembles.  I don't remember ensembles being wrong so often compared to now.  Used to they barely budged.  So, maybe this isn't a head fake as much as it is a transient warm-up...don't hold your breath there, but know that is a possible outcome.  You know, if I was forced to make a Feb forecast with no modeling...I would still go with a variable pattern w/ a slight lean BN.  I am going to have to dig back through the fall thread, but we might have had a couple of delays and head fakes right before that pattern changed.  This was a bad one though.  Hey, but if fooled the CPC a couple of days, so we weren't the only ones.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Bleaklies, as they say at southernwx. 

Make of them whatever you'd like.

meh...

 

 

 

[John1122]

I know we are used to defacto warmth and that's probably what's going to happen, but the ridiculous levels of model shifting each run shouldn't mean committing to any path they show right now. The EPS is not doing well at all but will likely get hailed as being correct at some point because each run of the EPS and weeklies flop like a fish.

[Carvers Gap]

I don't think anyone is committed to any model path at this point but the trend for two days on most ensembles is warmer in the medium and LR(even on the models that are still cold)...and pretty frustrating seeing another head fake.  The EPS hadn't been shifting much at all until a couple of days ago.  It has led the way in identifying the breakdown of the Central Pacific Ridge and subsequent shake-up.  The GEFS was actually quite late in recognizing next week's cool down.  I would strongly suspect the EPS will likely verify well above the GEFS for the winter as a whole.  Neither model will score well with this particular snafu.  And for sure, a broken clock is right twice a day.    What neither ensemble has been correct about(at least to this point) is the actual subsequent pattern that resulted in the breakdown of the Pacific Ridge.  Seems like both models are playing catch-up to a quickly evolving "post-Pacific ridge" setup.  The GEFS has been 3-4 days behind the curve - so far.  

Weeklies look good, but they did not run off the 12z run which is not in agreement with the Weeklies which are derived from the 0z run.  The Weeklies and the 12z EPS diverge at d10...so one of them is likely incorrect and badly so.  With that in mind, I would take that Weeklies run with a huge grain of salt if not just throw them out in their entirety given 12z trends.   That said, the JAMSTEC did look decent in their weeklies but they have been poor in handling the MJO - really poor.

Models flip flopping or simply staying with the wrong solution are both equally difficult forecast problems.  I don't trust the GEFS as it has a very bad cold bias and has been wrong repeatedly this winter.  Its problem has not been flip flopping but was in error by consistently staying with a cold pattern that never arrived.  It showed cold for nearly the entire month of December at LR and never verified.  The EPS/Euro has had very good verification with the MJO (once winter has settled in)which is why it gets more weight.  The GEFS also did not handle the last MJO loop very well.  The EPS has been steady relative to other modeling...but still poor.  The EPS also has a bad tendency to perform very poorly during pattern changes or once the seasons begin changing.  And like it or not, the seasons are changing in E TN.  I have seen plants blooming as early as I have ever seen them.  Robins are back.  My yard is greening up.  I will be mowing in about two weeks if the weather doesn't stay cold.  My garlic has taken off as have my onions.  My cover crops are know knee high.  My micro-climate thinks it is spring.  Oddly, the buffleheads(we have a couple of pairs near my house) never showed up this winter.  I am guessing there is unusually open water to my north.  

Right now the message from the EPS is clear...We may potentially AN warmth during a timeframe that was forecast as well BN which is later next week.  The 18z GFS is moving that direction as well.  The 18z GEFS has actually warmed considerably through d11...What we don't know right now is whether modeling is picking up on a transient warm shot(per snowgoose) d8-11 or if it is a total head fake for the entire time period.  The Nino BN heights on the GEFS at 0z have been nearly replaced by AN heights at 18z between d8-11.  The change is stark.  Probably should add it to the flip flop club as well.  So, I don't think I am looking at just one run of one model.  These changes have been moving across most ensembles for about 36 hours. Hopefully we can reverse those trends and maybe even steal a snowstorm from the multiple storms traversing across the southern tier.  But I am not going to hold to colder solutions which are trending quickly away from that.    Winter may yet return, I am not throwing in the towel on that or snowstorms.  But make no mistake, model trends for the past couple of days have nearly reversed what looked like a great pattern at one point.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Carvers Gap you mentioned Fall earlier. Looks like pages 6 - 9 of that thread are the ones where we started to see a possible change. I read through it and didn't get much out of it for use now, other than it seems to have come up pretty quickly toward the end of October. There was also some early talk of a typhoon recurving, but probably won't get anything like that now and not sure it helped that change in October based on how we discussed it at the time. 

You or others may be able to see more though, so I thought I'd give the page numbers to make looking for that change easier. 

[AMZ8990]

The year without a winter!!!

[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

@Carvers Gap you mentioned Fall earlier. Looks like pages 6 - 9 of that thread are the ones where we started to see a possible change. I read through it and didn't get much out of it for use now, other than it seems to have come up pretty quickly toward the end of October. There was also some early talk of a typhoon recurving, but probably won't get anything like that now and not sure it helped that change in October based on how we discussed it at the time. 

You or others may be able to see more though, so I thought I'd give the page numbers to make looking for that change easier. 

It was not quick.  It was agonizingly slow.  I actually went back and looked at TRI's temps for October.  Pattern broke on October 8 even though the following week was warm.  It just wasn't as extreme.  We then went back and forth for the rest of the month with two cold fronts that had BN air.  We thought we had finally gotten out of the pattern, and were hit with yet another extreme period of warmth during the last week.   Then, the hammer finally dropped.  But no, the pattern broke and took three weeks to step down.  Very similar to what we are seeing right now and equally as frustrating.  LOL.  So, maybe that is a good find, Holston.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I meant it was quick when it finally happened is what I meant. Yeah, we agonized over it for a while.