Rtd208 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Not only do I think the weekend storm threat is dead (still giving it until the 12z runs today) but the same goes for winter. We have been chasing fantasy storms and digital snow and I don't expect that to change. If there is any chance to see substantial snow it would probably come at the tail end of February or first two weeks of March like the last couple of years. Doubtful but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Not only do I think the weekend storm threat is dead (still giving it until the 12z runs today) but the same goes for winter. We have been chasing fantasy storms and digital snow and I don't expect that to change. If there is any chance to see substantial snow it would probably come at the tail end of February or first two weeks of March like the last couple of years. Doubtful but we'll see. I still cant wrap my head around how guidance can show decent patterns 10 days out but then totally flip on those looks yet if they show a crud pattern 10 days out it almost never flips to the good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Yeah the Epic winter has sure gone down the toilet, after reading so many great outlooks I was really looking forward to a decent winter Then December happened and not looking good going forward. As bad as last winter was I still managed normal snowfall, That being said there haven't been too many Februarys without some snow my birthday being the 12th we usually snow around that timeframe, Im keeping hope alive for mid Feb. till Early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 What a boring and shitty winter this has been. I usually pull a few all nighters during the winter. Not even 1 so far this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, penndotguy said: Yeah the Epic winter has sure gone down the toilet, after reading so many great outlooks I was really looking forward to a decent winter Then December happened and not looking good going forward. As bad as last winter was I still managed normal snowfall, That being said there haven't been too many Februarys without some snow my birthday being the 12th we usually snow around that timeframe, Im keeping hope alive for mid Feb. till Early March. Speaking for myself I had definitely thought given the balanced pros and cons back in late Oct and early Nov that at the very least we would end the season near avg even slightly above irt snowfall. That could still happen with a fluke storm or if we stumble into a range in the midst of this dumpster fire where we score on a couple decent events. But admittedly this season is not going as I had expected. There has been virtually ZERO HL blocking. Even the EPO ridge back around the start of met winter was brief. Many are saying the IOD is the culprit, other the PDO, and many claiming the MJO is at fault. All 3 are independently connected so this isnt a surprise that the IO and PO are essentially driving our pattern here downstream. The other factor is the PV developed into one strong gyre that has basically remained anchored in the same spot at times and not wobbling around, splitting, elongating, etc. This is likely a function of how the strat is affecting things, but with this said it hasn't allowed to PV at the trop level to be bullied around so every time a HL ridge tries to nose closer to the PV it just gets knocked down. Who knows what will happen going forward irt blocking. There are still chances over the next 10 day+ as a gradient/boundary pattern gets established partly in response to the SE Ridge showing up. However, unless we can get a piece of the PV to supply some cold and force the boundary under us, we will likely continue to fail here in SE PA. But dont throw in the towel just yet....we are still in prime climo and even in the worst years things can pull together for a surprise. 1983 was a good example of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I still cant wrap my head around how guidance can show decent patterns 10 days out but then totally flip on those looks yet if they show a crud pattern 10 days out it almost never flips to the good. I think this is showing the weakness in the models with using past climo because although there are climatological cycles of weather, the "floor" of that sine curve has shifted warmer over the past couple decades, which can sometimes mean the difference between snow/sleet/rain. Plus the increased urbanization, expansion of the density of the suburbs, and even suburbanization of the exburbs, has contributed to more marginal events save for those times when the ENSO state and teleconnections are optimum. On the plus side - at least Alaska is actually having a "winter". They have been above normal during winter the past bunch of years to the point where the state has been losing far too much of its much-needed permafrost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I knew we were in trouble a couple of weeks ago when Wes (usedtobe) started posting again in the MA forum. (Just kidding, Wes.) Anyway... I'd be curious to learn what the models have been picking up on or dismissing these past two winters as they keep showing improving patterns in the LR that never get inside 7 days. Maybe it's nothing at all. Maybe is just some sort of model default past 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Starting to think there will be no smarch this year. The odds overwhelmingly favor a normal or mild March considering how the last 5 years have been. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just some stats since there's nothing else really going on... As of 1/29/20, PHL is currently at .3" on the season. There have only been 25 winters with 3" or less on 1/29 since 1884 at PHL. Only 5 of those years managed to get to or above normal snowfall. The most snowfall of those years was 1913-14 when 34.2" fell after only having 2.2" thru 1/29. The least amount of snowfall was 72-73 where they had 0" and then finished with 0". The mean of those 25 years was 11.4". The median of those 25 years was 8.5". There have been 11 years that had less than 1.5" of snow on 1/29. Only one of those years(92-93) finished at or above normal with 24.3" after having just 1.0" on 1/29. The mean for those years was 8.7". The median of those years was 7.5". There have been 7 years that had 1" or less of snow on 1/29. Again only 92-93 finished at or above normal snowfall with 24.3" after having 1" on 1/29. The mean of those years was 6.9". The median of those years was 4.5" Statistically speaking, things ain't looking good the rest of the way. But if you're hoping that we get at least another frozen event, odds are pretty good. Since 1884, only 6 years have had less than an inch of snow after 1/29. 1924-25, 53-54, 72-73, 76-77, 97-98, and 01-02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 hours ago, The Iceman said: Just some stats since there's nothing else really going on... As of 1/29/20, PHL is currently at .3" on the season. There have only been 25 winters with 3" or less on 1/29 since 1884 at PHL. Only 5 of those years managed to get to or above normal snowfall. The most snowfall of those years was 1913-14 when 34.2" fell after only having 2.2" thru 1/29. The least amount of snowfall was 72-73 where they had 0" and then finished with 0". The mean of those 25 years was 11.4". The median of those 25 years was 8.5". There have been 11 years that had less than 1.5" of snow on 1/29. Only one of those years(92-93) finished at or above normal with 24.3" after having just 1.0" on 1/29. The mean for those years was 8.7". The median of those years was 7.5". There have been 7 years that had 1" or less of snow on 1/29. Again only 92-93 finished at or above normal snowfall with 24.3" after having 1" on 1/29. The mean of those years was 6.9". The median of those years was 4.5" Statistically speaking, things ain't looking good the rest of the way. But if you're hoping that we get at least another frozen event, odds are pretty good. Since 1884, only 6 years have had less than an inch of snow after 1/29. 1924-25, 53-54, 72-73, 76-77, 97-98, and 01-02. Looks like it's time again, not to mention that interval between occurrences with climate warming should shorten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Winter 2019/2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 This winter is worse than 2001-2002. At least I had some snow cover. My snow cover this winter lasted a few hours. I miss the winters where you had to walk in the street because the sidewalks were buried with snow. I also miss the winters where the oceans use to freeze over . Those were the days. I feel like I live in the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: This winter is worse than 2001-2002. At least I had some snow cover. My snow cover this winter lasted a few hours. I miss the winters where you had to walk in the street because the sidewalks were buried with snow. I also miss the winters where the oceans use to freeze over . Those were the days. I feel like I live in the south. Sadly I doubt we ever get back to those days, but at some point the law of averages has to even out and a great winter is hopefully in the cards going forward. Im waving the white flag on this winter, I hope Im wrong but the trends aren't our friends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 On 1/21/2020 at 1:48 PM, Albedoman said: his is what I posted a few days ago to my facebook site: ===== after looking at this evenings LR weather models, I am not going to officially kill off winter but it appears to be dying a slow death. The minor snow event tonight and the spittle of snow tomorrow will be a distant memory by next weekend with all of the forecasted rain and highs near 50 degrees. There is real good chance that if we do get a major weather pattern turn around by Valentines Day, this winter will under 10 inches of snow for the LV. This lack of snow cover for sufficient ground water recharge could lead to drought conditions into late spring. I feel for the ski resorts and the contractors who rely on snow removal for their income but its going to get worse before it gets any better. The temps will warm up above freezing for highs by Friday and will stay that way for the foreseeable future. Whats even worse is that this warmth goes all the way to the Great Lakes and upper midwest and Lake Erie may not even freeze over this year. ground hogs day needle storm is kaput. My foot of snow for the LV has died on the vine- a slow miserable death. If we are lucky 1-2 inches that will melt as fast it fell if we get even receive any frozen precip at all. Valentines day week, the last gasp of a pattern change and maybe a 10 day fantasy storm as demonstrated by the models again this morning is like taking your last dying breath otherwise this winter will go down in the record book. I am getting real concerned that we could get" Marched On" with the spring vegetation popping up and blooming so early by the end of next week. One good extreme freeze from a short cold snap and spring flowers and blooms will take an ass kicking. Also , having a foot of snow on blooming daffodils is not good if it is followed by arctic air for a week. Even though I said the analog year was 94-95 for this year, this season reminds me a lot of happened in 93 before the superstorm. While I am not saying we will have another one, the potential really exists for one of the Miller As to be a real good snow producer if the pattern changes after Valentines day FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 5 hours ago, Albedoman said: ground hogs day needle storm is kaput. My foot of snow for the LV has died on the vine- a slow miserable death. If we are lucky 1-2 inches that will melt as fast it fell if we get even receive any frozen precip at all. Valentines day week, the last gasp of a pattern change and maybe a 10 day fantasy storm as demonstrated by the models again this morning is like taking your last dying breath otherwise this winter will go down in the record book. I am getting real concerned that we could get" Marched On" with the spring vegetation popping up and blooming so early by the end of next week. One good extreme freeze from a short cold snap and spring flowers and blooms will take an ass kicking. Also , having a foot of snow on blooming daffodils is not good if it is followed by arctic air for a week. Even though I said the analog year was 94-95 for this year, this season reminds me a lot of happened in 93 before the superstorm. While I am not saying we will have another one, the potential really exists for one of the Miller As to be a real good snow producer if the pattern changes after Valentines day Farmers almanac was way off this year. At least you and Joe Bastardi are sharing your ideas hinting irt similarities to the '93 pattern headed later into Feb. We can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 anyone care to start a Spring 2020 banter thread? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 This winter was 1998,2002 and 2012 combined into one neat package 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 I hope we get feet of rain once spring hits. If we can't freeze we might as well flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 I said I will give it till feb 10 before raising the white flag but damn it is going to be a challenge to hang in that long. Every single index is against us. +++AO, ++NAO, -PNA, MJO going into 5-6, se ridge raging. The window is shutting quickly as is the winter. I can see an early spring this year tbh. All signs are leaning against the recent cold and snowy Marches repeating this year. Feb 10 is it for me...if nothing within 7 days at that time I am over and out. Time is running out folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 48 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I said I will give it till feb 10 before raising the white flag but damn it is going to be a challenge to hang in that long. Every single index is against us. +++AO, ++NAO, -PNA, MJO going into 5-6, se ridge raging. The window is shutting quickly as is the winter. I can see an early spring this year tbh. All signs are leaning against the recent cold and snowy Marches repeating this year. Feb 10 is it for me...if nothing within 7 days at that time I am over and out. Time is running out folks. Models already locking into that boundary setting up next week too far NW due to the SE ridge. 4 distinct waves all just cold rain. Hopefully we warm up after that because I'm done with this winter. At this point, it'd be cool to break the lowest snowfall of my lifetime. At 1.5" now, record is 2.4" set in 97-98. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 As bad as last year seemed at least there was some wintery precip. out this way, granted most were snow to sleet and freezing rain but there were several Nickle and dime events to get me to normal snowfall this year is just pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 18 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Models already locking into that boundary setting up next week too far NW due to the SE ridge. 4 distinct waves all just cold rain. Hopefully we warm up after that because I'm done with this winter. At this point, it'd be cool to break the lowest snowfall of my lifetime. At 1.5" now, record is 2.4" set in 97-98. It's amazing that 3 days ago models were showing one of the strongest neg NAOs I've seen forecast in a long time. Not only did they flip it to a raging +NAO but instead shifted the greatest SD anomalies towards the Gulf of Alaska. I dont ever recall such dramatic 180 flips in such short periods as this year. Worst part is that guidance has trended away from any good looks every time we were teased and never once the opposite ie bad look towards a good look. I dont know if guidance has climo factored in but if so programmers need to oust the outdated climo data and replace with fresh climo data to reboot how forecasting progs are modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Yeah, I really didn't think this year could be as bad as last year...or worse. HA! Hopefully we're adding to the WDI (We're Due Index) for an upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Have to hand it to Isotherm. While many others( not all by any means) were honking for a great winter Isotherm looks to have hit this winter right on the nose despite how unpopular of an opinion it was back in November when he called it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Weeklies cancel winter Great track and of course a rainstorm Please end this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 11 hours ago, Snow88 said: Weeklies cancel winter Great track and of course a rainstorm Please end this winter 8 day rainstorm lock it in, if that showed a snowstorm it would fail 100% this season. Lets all just be negative from here on in maybe it will create some sort of reverse psychology Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Was it three years ago we were pushing mid 70's at the end of February, and then we got hit with three snowstorms in March? Also, we mention 2002 as a low to no snowfall year then it was all blowtorch from March to October that year. I'm all about warm weather just not 90 degrees for 6 months straight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 Euro weeklies abruptly did a 180 and ended winter for all intents and purposes. The CFS weeklies weren't even that bad and usually they lead the negativity pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Its hilarious how the MJO keeps avoiding the cold phases. It's now modeled to go into the COD and then out into 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Read Don S's thoughts in your forum -- based on current Pac SSTA's, the MJO's base state may be more prone to stay in the warm phases going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now