Winter 2019-2020 Banter Thread

[RedSky]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Slop to rain this weekend, far offshore bomb, then another cutter. Cool pattern.

The ECM height map for the northern hemisphere is depressing day 10, signals significant pattern change won't happen until February at least. 

 

[mattinpa]

15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

The ECM height map for the northern hemisphere is depressing day 10, signals significant pattern change won't happen until February at least. 

 

The totality of things still look good, but it is something we will watch to see if it is a trend.

[Ralph Wiggum]

On 1/9/2020 at 10:04 AM, Albedoman said:

Its coming around to my thinking.  Notice the TN Valley screamer coming this way on the LR GFS models as well. Fun times ahead. If I was a betting man- a foot of snow on the ground by Groundhogs Day. Where this a pattern change- watch out and this will be a huge pattern change.

 

Latest MJO trend is backing down...much less amplification and fast return to cod. 

[JTA66]

Too early to say for sure, but certainly having flashbacks to last year when the really good looks in the LR started to get muted as we moved forward in time. Deja vu all over again!

[Ralph Wiggum]

20 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Too early to say for sure, but certainly having flashbacks to last year when the really good looks in the LR started to get muted as we moved forward in time. Deja vu all over again!

Sad reality is last year by this time we at least had a few small storms. This year...nada.

[The Iceman]

If we get a look like this:

 

That results in this:

 

 

I think I'll be throwing in the towel for 2020 and rooting for futility. 

[KamuSnow]

3 hours ago, The Iceman said:

If we get a look like this:

 

That results in this:

 

 

I think I'll be throwing in the towel for 2020 and rooting for futility. 

Is that like the draft, if we finish poorly this year we get a high draft pick next winter? Haha...

[Ralph Wiggum]

On 1/13/2020 at 2:25 PM, Albedoman said:

My long range forecasting for this winter is still on cue.  Dec 19, I stated that winter would return between 1/5-8/2020. It indeed did with several light 1-2 inch snows.  The we got this brief warmup this weekend which was expected. The quote above was made on Christmas Eve.

 

Looks like a significant overrunnning event on Sat-Sun this upcoming  MLK weekend. The models have been consistent with a 6-12 inch amount. I would say at this point this amount looks reasonable with  an inch or so of sleet topped off with a freezing rain/frizzle crust on Sunday morning to make it a real bitch to shovel.  Snow blowers will be worth their weight in gold this weekend. The potential for lot of heart attacks exist as many will have over exerted themselves from not being used to shovel this heavy slop.

 

 I also stated that there would be a foot of snow on the ground by Ground Hogs day.  

Where is your winter LR forecast posted that is on cue as you said? You might be the only forecaster to have nailed it outside of Tom. Would love to give you credit where credit is due.

Is the 6-12" this weekend part one of the MLK weekend back to back storms you forecasted? 

[The Iceman]

06z GFS was a weenie run and a half. i give it . 24-26th period definitely bears watching as our next threat. It will be interesting to see how this ends up as a coating - 1".

 

[bluehens]

Another storm 15 days away. Wash rinse repeat. Just have to think this isn’t our year. Too many LR head fakes already and my guess is it continues. 
 

One thing I have really taken away this winter is how much model output is driven by MJO and how difficult it is to get the MJO right. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

48 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

06z GFS was a weenie run and a half. i give it . 24-26th period definitely bears watching as our next threat. It will be interesting to see how this ends up as a coating - 1".

 

I am really dreading the next 10 days tbh. Some are saying but this time is different but the same recurring themes keep surfacing. So whether a longwave in china is different or a blob of HP over N Canada, the truth is the apparent real weather patterns at the surface are repeating ie storm cuts to GL and secondary redevelops a hair too late, a storm is too far off the coast, a storm slides right over us, or we have a good track in between cold shots and mix or rain. I dont see this changing...unless there is a hemispheric reshuffle of the overall background state tellies or we somehow fluke into something late in the season as everything gets convoluted during seasonal transition and HL actually appears in some form besides progressive/transient.

[JTA66]

I will say I don't recall anyone forecasting an epic winter this year. But most did say something along the lines of, "if nothing else, this winter should be better than last year." To the point you made yesterday Ralph, last winter WAS BETTER than this one so far. If nothing else, we had the November storm.

Still, it's only 1/16. I'm not expecting a huge turn around, but maybe we can luck into a few fluke events so it's not a total fail.

[Albedoman]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Where is your winter LR forecast posted that is on cue as you said? You might be the only forecaster to have nailed it outside of Tom. Would love to give you credit where credit is due.

Is the 6-12" this weekend part one of the MLK weekend back to back storms you forecasted? 

Ralph, I have stated this since Dec 19, 2019. Some of my LR posts were on Facebook in my closed group and never made it on here as I have been reluctant to post here.  I will try to place them all on this site in the future. Yes, this storm for saturday was the predecessor for a much larger one later next week that I have been calling for. This typically happens in this type of pattern change as 40+ years of weather experience has taught me and not just hugging every model run.  While this mornings LR models are spitting out 24+ inches, I certainly say that is the outlier right now. I am still holding firm to at least a  foot or more of snow on the ground for the varmint to see his shadow on Feb 2. Just be prepared for bone chilling temps the next few weeks compared to what we have seen thus far this winter.

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Ralph, I have stated this since Dec 19, 2019. Some of my LR posts were on Facebook in my closed group and never made it on here as I have been reluctant to post here.  I will try to place them all on this site in the future. Yes, this storm for saturday was the predecessor for a much larger one later next week that I have been calling for. This typically happens in this type of pattern change as 40+ years of weather experience has taught me and not just hugging every model run.  While this mornings LR models are spitting out 24+ inches, I certainly say that is the outlier right now. I am still holding firm to at least a  foot or more of snow on the ground for the varmint to see his shadow on Feb 2. Just be prepared for bone chilling temps the next few weeks compared to what we have seen thus far this winter.

 

Sounds good. What area?

[Albedoman]

On 1/16/2020 at 11:30 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Sounds good. What area?

Here is something of how and why I base my LR predictions on past weather events. While it is no way perfect, weather history IMHO is still essential to accurately predict long range events. Until recently, I could never substantiate how well my memory was on how certain weather patterns that were in place at the time of actual snow depth on the ground. Many younger posters will vividly remember 1996 and 2010 as big storms in the area. KU events tend to stand out. I personally experienced 1987, 1993, 1999 and so on. But the one winter year that stands out far more than any other is January 21, 1994- March  28 1994  where it was so cold and the snow depth on the ground was high and even the roads had constant ruts where snow and ice never melted for days.

This video below is perfect way of how I try to match up weather history of snow depth with actual daily weather patterns. If someone would create  a program to match of the daily MJO with this video, it would be a good start in helping everyone to understand the upcoming evolution of certain weather patterns.  Simply model hugging every six hour run of the GFS and NAM and 12 hr runs of the Euro and CMC  will drive a person insane and is not an accurate sole indicator of ever changing weather patterns. The atmosphere is dynamically fluid and so are the computer models, especially the last several years as evident by constant changes in the GFS model alone. They are guidance tools just like satellite imagery to help form an accurate daily forecast. To rely just on the daily computer generated models to predict long range forecasting is ill advised IMHO.

Weather history is also not fluid nor is it the sole reason for expecting major weather pattern changes. But when combine with synoptic daily weather forecasting, long range forecasting becomes much more reliable. Many old timers like me use weather history to generate our thoughts for producing long range predictions and not just rely on computer generated models like the MJO. When I first was involved in weather in the late 1970's , computers generated models were only available at NOAA in MD. Everything else was hand generated with only three - five day max forecasting available with little satellite imagery. I remember getting blank maps of the US and having to hand draw fronts, isotherms, isobars etc on the maps and turn them over to my professors to be graded on accurate they were based on the weekly plots by NOAA from Md. Yes, hand drawn using data generated by balloons etc and airport weather stations. Yes I admit, I am old fart but I would not have any other way. 

Weather history plays a vital role and I still heavily rely on it. Many of todays meteorologists use weather history primarily for daily and annual comparisons for extremes. When I was first predicting long range forecasting for my family and friends, I  used past weather history in determining a more accurate daily weather forecast. We have come a long way in the past 40 years. Have fun with the video

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Here is something of how and why I base my LR predictions on past weather events. While it is no way perfect, weather history IMHO is still essential to accurately predict long range events. Until recently, I could never substantiate how well my memory was on how certain weather patterns that were in place at the time of actual snow depth on the ground. Many younger posters will vividly remember 1996 and 2010 as big storms in the area. KU events tend to stand out. I personally experienced 1987, 1993, 1999 and so on. But the one winter year that stands out far more than any other is January 21, 1994- March  28 1994  where it was so cold and the snow depth on the ground was high and even the roads had constant ruts where snow and ice never melted for days.

This video below is perfect way of how I try to match up weather history of snow depth with actual daily weather patterns. If someone would create  a program to match of the daily MJO with this video, it would be a good start in helping everyone to understand the upcoming evolution of certain weather patterns.  Simply model hugging every six hour run of the GFS and NAM and 12 hr runs of the Euro and CMC  will drive a person insane and is not an accurate sole indicator of ever changing weather patterns. The atmosphere is dynamically fluid and so are the computer models, especially the last several years as evident by constant changes in the GFS model alone. They are guidance tools just like satellite imagery to help form an accurate daily forecast. To rely just on the daily computer generated models to predict long range forecasting is ill advised IMHO.

Weather history is also not fluid nor is it the sole reason for expecting major weather pattern changes. But when combine with synoptic daily weather forecasting, long range forecasting becomes much more reliable. Many old timers like me use weather history to generate our thoughts for producing long range predictions and not just rely on computer generated models like the MJO. When I first was involved in weather in the late 1970's , computers generated models were only available at NOAA in MD. Everything else was hand generated with only three - five day max forecasting available with little satellite imagery. I remember getting blank maps of the US and having to hand draw fronts, isotherms, isobars etc on the maps and turn them over to my professors to be graded on accurate they were based on the weekly plots by NOAA from Md. Yes, hand drawn using data generated by balloons etc and airport weather stations. Yes I admit, I am old fart but I would not have any other way. 

Weather history plays a vital role and I still heavily rely on it. Many of todays meteorologists use weather history primarily for daily and annual comparisons for extremes. When I was first predicting long range forecasting for my family and friends, I  used past weather history in determining a more accurate daily weather forecast. We have come a long way in the past 40 years. Have fun with the video

 

 

Fascinating.

Which area is getting a foot of snow next week?

[ChasingFlakes]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fascinating.

Which area is getting a foot of snow next 

I think they meant to post in the NNE thread. 

[LVwhiteout]

20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fascinating.

Which area is getting a foot of snow next week?

Albedoman - I grew up in the 50's, and what I remember most is almost every good snow storm had great winds behind it for good drifting. Doesn't happen anymore. I think there are certain times of winter where I have always looked for action. Maybe what you believe in. Mine are Dec 5-9, then Dec 19-24, then Jan 20-25. Feb 12-17, and Mar 5-9th. Seems like something always happens around those times. Kind of strange.By the way , I see you also live in Lower Macungie Twsp.  What are you close to , if you don't mind?

 

Also for Steve - what do you think about this big break being forecasted after about 2 hrs of snow, and then nothing until 3 hrs later?

[Hurricane Agnes]

7 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Here is something of how and why I base my LR predictions on past weather events. While it is no way perfect, weather history IMHO is still essential to accurately predict long range events. Until recently, I could never substantiate how well my memory was on how certain weather patterns that were in place at the time of actual snow depth on the ground. Many younger posters will vividly remember 1996 and 2010 as big storms in the area. KU events tend to stand out. I personally experienced 1987, 1993, 1999 and so on. But the one winter year that stands out far more than any other is January 21, 1994- March  28 1994  where it was so cold and the snow depth on the ground was high and even the roads had constant ruts where snow and ice never melted for days.

Not here in Philly.  That period was the nightmare of the "ice storms".  I think I literally counted around 17 individual events IMBY that I was white-knuckle commuting through to/from work, starting some time in December (and there had been a "rain every couple days" thing going on antecedent to that so it seemed inevitable).  It was to the point where the tristate area had run out of salt and there were caravans of trucks that eventually came down from NY state to help with the shortage/unavailability of both road salt and consumer ice melt products.  People were left with throwing sand, kitty litter, and table salt out on their walks. 

I remember the worst one that first week of January (the 7th I believe), when I had to go on a work-related trip down to Baltimore (by Amtrak) where I had planned to drive to 30th St. station early morning and park there to get on the train.  And on my way down, I intended to go on I-76 (that I generally avoid) figuring it would have been better treated as a "primary (interstate) route", than my normal downtown route (the river drives). But literally, just as I approached the entrance ramp to I-76, the traffic report indicated that PennDot was about to close 76 because of the ice build-up, with cars/trucks getting stuck on the ramps, unable to go up or down them. So I was able to bypass that and continue on downtown along one of the river drives, and ease on into the station parking lots.  Meanwhile I-76 was eventually completely closed with hundreds of cars and people trapped there for over 8 hours.  While in Baltimore, I managed to find and bring home 3, 5lb bags of Halite in my suitcase that I handed off to my mom for her sidewalks.  She ended up having the only portion of sidewalk on her block that was "clear and dry" to the cement.   

What was interesting too about the '94 ice storms was that many of the residents of the western suburbs learned the hard way that Rte 202 was considered a "secondary" route, meaning "delays" in road treatment while the "primaries" (interstates) were worked on as a priority... and the outrage was fierce.  Forget if you live in the city proper, where the "main thoroughfare" streets were considered "tertiary", so good luck...

So here in Philly in '94, it wasn't the snow depths that upstate/Lehigh Valley may have had, it was the nightmare of the ice.  It was enough to uproot and pull down an old cedar tree between my mother's house and her neighbor's house, and when it went down, it extended some 50ft across the front yard abutting the house, and halfway into the street, just missing the neighbor's car.

And as a historic note not mentioned for Philly - that 1994 winter was the last time that Philly recorded a below 0 temperature (recorded as a -5F at KPHL January 9, 1994).  It's gotten close a few times with 1s and 2s and 3s but so far all above 0.

[Ralph Wiggum]

22 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said:

Albedoman - I grew up in the 50's, and what I remember most is almost every good snow storm had great winds behind it for good drifting. Doesn't happen anymore. I think there are certain times of winter where I have always looked for action. Maybe what you believe in. Mine are Dec 5-9, then Dec 19-24, then Jan 20-25. Feb 12-17, and Mar 5-9th. Seems like something always happens around those times. Kind of strange.By the way , I see you also live in Lower Macungie Twsp.  What are you close to , if you don't mind?

 

Also for Steve - what do you think about this big break being forecasted after about 2 hrs of snow, and then nothing until 3 hrs later?

Intermittent precip/lull between the WAA band and the batch trailing behind. Farther North the shorter the lull. In the SE part of the state...c-2" snow then a .25-.5" sleet a little less extreme SE counties. Just enough to make travel slick.

[Albedoman]

30 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said:

Albedoman - I grew up in the 50's, and what I remember most is almost every good snow storm had great winds behind it for good drifting. Doesn't happen anymore. I think there are certain times of winter where I have always looked for action. Maybe what you believe in. Mine are Dec 5-9, then Dec 19-24, then Jan 20-25. Feb 12-17, and Mar 5-9th. Seems like something always happens around those times. Kind of strange.By the way , I see you also live in Lower Macungie Twsp.  What are you close to , if you don't mind?

 

Also for Steve - what do you think about this big break being forecasted after about 2 hrs of snow, and then nothing until 3 hrs later?

I live in Ancient Oaks West  near Rt 100. My backyard is the Little Lehigh Creek and its watershed. For those who do not know, the best trout stream to run through an urbanized area in the country, home of most of the major water bottlers , coke syrup production , juices and of course beer production. The water is so clean, that even Pierre bottles here.

Anyway, those dates you had mentioned is what I called "Production Dates" and yes, that is when most weather pattern changes occur in our region. You may even have noticed them in the video. The most significant dates are around Pearl Harbor and MLK days. Cannot explain why except that is when the weather pattern changes most often occur in this time period.

As far 94 goes I fully agree that the constant barrage of  ice storms on top of existing snow packed roads  were major issues as they serve to complicate by creating  glaciers that seem to never melt. Thanks  Hurricane Agnes for refreshing my memory of this horrid driving period. You were spot on.

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 minute ago, Albedoman said:

I live in Ancient Oaks West  near Rt 100. My backyard is the Little Lehigh Creek and its watershed. For those who do not know, the best trout stream to run through an urbanized area in the country, home of most of the major water bottlers , coke syrup production , juices and of course beer production. The water is so clean, that even Pierre bottles here.

Anyway, those dates you had mentioned is what I called "Production Dates" and yes, that is when most weather pattern changes occur in our region. You may even have noticed them in the video. The most significant dates are around Pearl Harbor and MLK days. Cannot explain why except that is when the weather pattern changes most often occur in this time period.

As far 94 goes I fully agree that the constant barrage of  ice storms on top of existing snow packed roads  were major issues as they serve to complicate by creating  glaciers that seem to never melt. Thanks  Hurricane Agnes for refreshing my memory of this horrid driving period. You were spot on.

"Glacier" is the perfect word for it Not since the winters of '76 & '77 with their frigid temps (and their glaciers), did we have so much ice here.  I remember back in '77 where I lived (lots of hills like where I am now) where the buses could not get up the hills due to the ice (with water on top), so they made people (like me) get off the bus and walk up to the top of the hill and get back on again.  

Those were the years when long johns became really popular again down here.  It was a big change from the early '70s with the snow drought (not unlike we are seeing now).  And like '76/'77 eventually heralded the blizzard of '78, so too did '94 eventually herald what happened in '96.

[LVwhiteout]

9 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

I live in Ancient Oaks West  near Rt 100. My backyard is the Little Lehigh Creek and its watershed. For those who do not know, the best trout stream to run through an urbanized area in the country, home of most of the major water bottlers , coke syrup production , juices and of course beer production. The water is so clean, that even Pierre bottles here.

Anyway, those dates you had mentioned is what I called "Production Dates" and yes, that is when most weather pattern changes occur in our region. You may even have noticed them in the video. The most significant dates are around Pearl Harbor and MLK days. Cannot explain why except that is when the weather pattern changes most often occur in this time period.

As far 94 goes I fully agree that the constant barrage of  ice storms on top of existing snow packed roads  were major issues as they serve to complicate by creating  glaciers that seem to never melt. Thanks  Hurricane Agnes for refreshing my memory of this horrid driving period. You were spot on.

Didn't see video. Those are just the dates I always rely on to produce something, and for some strange reason they usually do. You are right around the corner from me, as I live in Shepard Hills golf course area near 222. Lets hope for about 4" today and night!

[KamuSnow]

25 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

"Glacier" is the perfect word for it Not since the winters of '76 & '77 with their frigid temps (and their glaciers), did we have so much ice here.  I remember back in '77 where I lived (lots of hills like where I am now) where the buses could not get up the hills due to the ice (with water on top), so they made people (like me) get off the bus and walk up to the top of the hill and get back on again.  

Those were the years when long johns became really popular again down here.  It was a big change from the early '70s with the snow drought (not unlike we are seeing now).  And like '76/'77 eventually heralded the blizzard of '78, so too did '94 eventually herald what happened in '96.

In 1977 they had an icebreaker come up the Delaware, lol. The ice was 2 feet thick I believe.

1994 I call the ice winter - icicles hanging in trees for days, and my yard looked liked it had 3" of liquid ice poured over it. Amazing, you could even see the grass underneath in spots.

I remember rolling blackouts due to high power consumption, which surprised me for wintertime.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Just now, KamuSnow said:

In 1977 they had an icebreaker come up the Delaware, lol. The ice was 2 feet thick I believe.

1994 I call the ice winter - icicles hanging in trees for days, and my yard looked liked it had 3" of liquid ice poured over it. Amazing, you could even see the grass underneath in spots.

I remember rolling blackouts due to high power consumption, which surprised me for wintertime.

Damn - AND the rolling blackouts.   Forgot about that.

[JTA66]

On 1/18/2020 at 7:04 AM, LVwhiteout said:

Albedoman - I grew up in the 50's, and what I remember most is almost every good snow storm had great winds behind it for good drifting. Doesn't happen anymore. I think there are certain times of winter where I have always looked for action. Maybe what you believe in. Mine are Dec 5-9, then Dec 19-24, then Jan 20-25. Feb 12-17, and Mar 5-9th. Seems like something always happens around those times. Kind of strange.By the way , I see you also live in Lower Macungie Twsp.  What are you close to , if you don't mind?

 

Also for Steve - what do you think about this big break being forecasted after about 2 hrs of snow, and then nothing until 3 hrs later?

This.

Now what I remember and what actually happened may be two different things, but...

Growing up in the 70's and 80's, it seemed every forecast for a sizable storm included the words "blowing and drifting". And I remember it seemed very cold air masses would follow those storms. For instance, if yesterday's storm occurred 40 years ago, it would be in the teens today and everything would be a frozen block of ice.

As great as 2009-10 was, I don't recall it being particularly cold after those storms. Even the blizzard of 2016 didn't feature any remarkable cold afterward.

[ChescoWx]

And yet this recently completed decade was the snowiest on record for Chester County PA.....weather like many things runs in cycles and of course the climate is always and will always be changing

[ChescoWx]

JB riding the snowiest model - the Canadian for next weekend's potential event....call me stunned!

[RedSky]

On 1/17/2020 at 10:47 PM, Albedoman said:

Here is something of how and why I base my LR predictions on past weather events. While it is no way perfect, weather history IMHO is still essential to accurately predict long range events. Until recently, I could never substantiate how well my memory was on how certain weather patterns that were in place at the time of actual snow depth on the ground. Many younger posters will vividly remember 1996 and 2010 as big storms in the area. KU events tend to stand out. I personally experienced 1987, 1993, 1999 and so on. But the one winter year that stands out far more than any other is January 21, 1994- March  28 1994  where it was so cold and the snow depth on the ground was high and even the roads had constant ruts where snow and ice never melted for days.

This video below is perfect way of how I try to match up weather history of snow depth with actual daily weather patterns. If someone would create  a program to match of the daily MJO with this video, it would be a good start in helping everyone to understand the upcoming evolution of certain weather patterns.  Simply model hugging every six hour run of the GFS and NAM and 12 hr runs of the Euro and CMC  will drive a person insane and is not an accurate sole indicator of ever changing weather patterns. The atmosphere is dynamically fluid and so are the computer models, especially the last several years as evident by constant changes in the GFS model alone. They are guidance tools just like satellite imagery to help form an accurate daily forecast. To rely just on the daily computer generated models to predict long range forecasting is ill advised IMHO.

Weather history is also not fluid nor is it the sole reason for expecting major weather pattern changes. But when combine with synoptic daily weather forecasting, long range forecasting becomes much more reliable. Many old timers like me use weather history to generate our thoughts for producing long range predictions and not just rely on computer generated models like the MJO. When I first was involved in weather in the late 1970's , computers generated models were only available at NOAA in MD. Everything else was hand generated with only three - five day max forecasting available with little satellite imagery. I remember getting blank maps of the US and having to hand draw fronts, isotherms, isobars etc on the maps and turn them over to my professors to be graded on accurate they were based on the weekly plots by NOAA from Md. Yes, hand drawn using data generated by balloons etc and airport weather stations. Yes I admit, I am old fart but I would not have any other way. 

Weather history plays a vital role and I still heavily rely on it. Many of todays meteorologists use weather history primarily for daily and annual comparisons for extremes. When I was first predicting long range forecasting for my family and friends, I  used past weather history in determining a more accurate daily weather forecast. We have come a long way in the past 40 years. Have fun with the video

 

 

Anybody else going back and reviewing their first winter after they were born? 69 was a decent winter for me mid Nov, mid Dec, Jan lul(of course) then it rocked in Feb and March. 

 

 

[RedSky]

Like that map. Always thought the 70's sucked except the last couple years but 1970 rocked N&W of Philly,  rain snow line in full effect year in Dec and March.