Albedoman Posted January 6, 2020 Share Posted January 6, 2020 the best radar is radar express. I also use Channel 69 wfmz as they have up to date audible warnings of severe weather- pretty neat. I also use accu weather for the same reason. I actually changed my notification sound to an air raid siren for tornado warnings and or you can have a message like you have mail sound. I have links to tropical tidbits and IA state meteogram for approaching storm events for dissection and analyzing. If I need satellites and or other info weather discussion etc, storm reports, go to MT holly page or accu weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 6, 2020 Author Share Posted January 6, 2020 30 minutes ago, Albedoman said: yes, that is what is forecasted now but weather history dictates that a high amplitude six death spiral will not occur that quickly. There will be a time where part of it will be in the 7/8 near the COD. Its this pattern change near 7/8 where the MIller A's will pop. 40 + years of weather watching is telling me this. The GOM will open up for business for a short time. From your keyboard to Mother Nature's monitor. Hoping u r right. A 7/8 into the cod then reemerging near 7 again wont be good.....at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 10 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: From your keyboard to Mother Nature's monitor. Hoping u r right. A 7/8 into the cod then reemerging near 7 again wont be good.....at all. this comes from another respectable meteorologist D Southerland - who is also seeing what I am seeing in the pattern change during MLK week .----Since 1974, the overwhelming majority (88%) of cases that saw the MJO peak in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the January 5-15 period progressed to Phases 7 and 8. Until the MJO plots are within 7 days or so, I believe the base case is just such a progression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furrawn Posted January 7, 2020 Share Posted January 7, 2020 13 hours ago, Albedoman said: the best radar is radar express. I also use Channel 69 wfmz as they have up to date audible warnings of severe weather- pretty neat. I also use accu weather for the same reason. I actually changed my notification sound to an air raid siren for tornado warnings and or you can have a message like you have mail sound. I have links to tropical tidbits and IA state meteogram for approaching storm events for dissection and analyzing. If I need satellites and or other info weather discussion etc, storm reports, go to MT holly page or accu weather. Thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 8 separate snow events totaling 2.7" .... talk about nickel and diming. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 8 separate snow events totaling 2.7" .... talk about nickel and diming. Sheesh. Welcome to my last winter lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 8 separate snow events totaling 2.7" .... talk about nickel and diming. Sheesh. reminds of this quote for grades as our snowfall totals in E. PA LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 A few days ago this wasn’t shown to get out of phase 5 before going into the COD. Now it’s higher amplitude is getting it into 6 with members now showing it going into 7 then 8. It will keep correcting our in time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 8, 2020 Share Posted January 8, 2020 5 hours ago, Albedoman said: A few days ago this wasn’t shown to get out of phase 5 before going into the COD. Now it’s higher amplitude is getting it into 6 with members now showing it going into 7 then 8. It will keep correcting our in time. GFS ensembles -- (also from what I have read, the PV is pretty strong at the moment which precludes it breaking apart). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2020 Author Share Posted January 8, 2020 1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said: GFS ensembles -- (also from what I have read, the PV is pretty strong at the moment which precludes it breaking apart). Pretty tight clustering and strong agreement there. Actually took a step back from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Its coming around to my thinking. Notice the TN Valley screamer coming this way on the LR GFS models as well. Fun times ahead. If I was a betting man- a foot of snow on the ground by Groundhogs Day. Where this a pattern change- watch out and this will be a huge pattern change. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Weather Sentry hinting at "something" around the 20th. FWIW. Probably fantasy land right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 3 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Weather Sentry hinting at "something" around the 20th. FWIW. Probably fantasy land right now. Been showing on the ensembles for what seems like a week now. Pattern changing long wave centered around the 17th, threat window Jan 20-24...very active and cold look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Two camps on the coming pattern change: Camp 1 - Pattern change to cold and possible snowy after the 16th, many in this camp expect this to last deep into February which would be unusual we usually don't do that very well but it can occasionally happen. Camp 2 - Change to normal/below after the 16th likely lasts 10-14 days then oscillates back to first half of January pattern. This falls in line with the mild winter forecasts that have scored highest to this point. Also Weather World a few days ago did their 5 week outlook which is 2/3rd of the time normal to above, which argues this cold wave will be transient. What does this mean? We better score good snow the last third of January because that may be all she wrote outside of more late season garbage like the last two winters. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 Pattern looks great on the eps mid to long range. Get your sleep now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 9, 2020 Author Share Posted January 9, 2020 Why are we in banter talking actual weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Why are we in banter talking actual weather? Early onset senility And the fact the climate seems so screwed up the analogs and guidance are unreliable, isn't it all banter in the end 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 9, 2020 Share Posted January 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Why are we in banter talking actual weather? Sorry Ralph, because if I post in the other threads, good ideas tend to get shot down real quick by snow weenies. Months ago, posters were complaining that the Philly forum gets crapped on with hardly any posters. LV posters have no home and get belittled and besmirched in the other forums There is a million people in the LV/Berks valley metro area yet everyone is concerned about the I-95 corridor. By putting legitimate talking points in the banter, this may wake up other posters that there are really knowledgeable and atmospheric degree posters in this forum who are either afraid to speak their forecasting thoughts only to be crushed by know-it all snow weenies who just model hug. Putting posts in this banter helps keeps an open minded forum as everyone likes reading banter from time to time. Plus it gave me a home to discuss my thoughts without interfering with I-95 corridor people discussion about every model run. Maybe the forums should also be divided up by regional offices instead of major cities- Upton , Mt Holly, State College, Washington DC etc to make it easier for posters to know where to post too for observations and local concerns and long range discussions and to follow regional discussions by the appropriate NOAA offices. It makes sense and gives the professional meteorologists in the regional offices a quick synopsis of local conditions too when severe weather is involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2020 Author Share Posted January 10, 2020 2 hours ago, Albedoman said: Sorry Ralph, because if I post in the other threads, good ideas tend to get shot down real quick by snow weenies. Months ago, posters were complaining that the Philly forum gets crapped on with hardly any posters. LV posters have no home and get belittled and besmirched in the other forums There is a million people in the LV/Berks valley metro area yet everyone is concerned about the I-95 corridor. By putting legitimate talking points in the banter, this may wake up other posters that there are really knowledgeable and atmospheric degree posters in this forum who are either afraid to speak their forecasting thoughts only to be crushed by know-it all snow weenies who just model hug. Putting posts in this banter helps keeps an open minded forum as everyone likes reading banter from time to time. Plus it gave me a home to discuss my thoughts without interfering with I-95 corridor people discussion about every model run. Maybe the forums should also be divided up by regional offices instead of major cities- Upton , Mt Holly, State College, Washington DC etc to make it easier for posters to know where to post too for observations and local concerns and long range discussions and to follow regional discussions by the appropriate NOAA offices. It makes sense and gives the professional meteorologists in the regional offices a quick synopsis of local conditions too when severe weather is involved. That is actually a really good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 21 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That is actually a really good idea. Agreed 100% - great idea!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 thanks guys. I hope the mods get together and make the change. Having a map on each page showing the regional NOAAoffice locations and their counties of where a new poster should be posting would help. Lots of great map makers on the this forum when it comes to colorful graphics. Each forum could make up its own map and show specific cities and locations of each poster. Transparency is the key to make this site more interactive. By the way, I said over a month ago about MLK week and back to back storms and the MJO to 7/8 for awhile. I also staed a week ago about a foot of snow on the ground by ground hogs day. I still see this as a good bet. BY the way Ralph stated about 94 redux. That is a damn good possibility with ruts in the roads from snow not melting. Been a long time coming and many drivers have forgotten how to drive in ruts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 JB excited this AM with pattern change....while I see the change coming....reversing winter warmth thus far?? I am not biting at this point "Since Christmas, our forecast team has been touting the pattern from the 20th on getting cold ( transition the 16-20. The turn around may rival the winter of 65-66 CFSV2 500 MB/temps 30 days starting Jan 20. If correct would erase the warmth of the winter thus far!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Looking ahead to next weekend the WXSIM has light snow arriving by 7pm Friday night becoming all sleet by 10pm with heavy sleet at times through mid morning than becoming ZR in the PM and finally all rain by 4pm - total snow (mainly sleet) accumulation 3" to 4" - temps than plummet on Sunday with a low Monday AM of just 5 degrees with a high on Monday of 13 above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 48 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: JB excited this AM with pattern change....while I see the change coming....reversing winter warmth thus far?? I am not biting at this point "Since Christmas, our forecast team has been touting the pattern from the 20th on getting cold ( transition the 16-20. The turn around may rival the winter of 65-66 CFSV2 500 MB/temps 30 days starting Jan 20. If correct would erase the warmth of the winter thus far!" Agreed, Paul. The positive departures we've set so far may be too much to overcome for the winter as a whole. But give me a period of cold and frozen during our peak climo and I'll be more than happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 12, 2020 Share Posted January 12, 2020 Though far from unusual, I hate going into mid January without at least a high end advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 12/24/2019 at 10:05 PM, Albedoman said: you too. Winter will return as described in my last post. The one thing many will remember is MLK day time frame in 2020 as back to back snowstorms will occur. Remember where you heard this first. My long range forecasting for this winter is still on cue. Dec 19, I stated that winter would return between 1/5-8/2020. It indeed did with several light 1-2 inch snows. The we got this brief warmup this weekend which was expected. The quote above was made on Christmas Eve. Looks like a significant overrunnning event on Sat-Sun this upcoming MLK weekend. The models have been consistent with a 6-12 inch amount. I would say at this point this amount looks reasonable with an inch or so of sleet topped off with a freezing rain/frizzle crust on Sunday morning to make it a real bitch to shovel. Snow blowers will be worth their weight in gold this weekend. The potential for lot of heart attacks exist as many will have over exerted themselves from not being used to shovel this heavy slop. I also stated that there would be a foot of snow on the ground by Ground Hogs day. This LR forecast is still looking good as we swing out MJO 7/8 toward the COD. This transitional period will set up the stage for the overall pattern change by the end of MLK week for another potential snow event with significantly colder temps with high barely making the 20's with overnight lows (radiational nighttime cooling )from the snow on the ground to temps near zero or colder. Winter will have finally arrived. Whats in my LR forecast after next week? Past weather history for our area tells me of 2-3 weeks of transitional warmups but with brief but brutal cold shots with clippers. There is also several potential storms to follow, mainly after Ground Hogs day and beyond to Valentines Day. After Valentines day, I think we will get at least one more big snow event before a slow warming trend to the ides of March. Miller A's are sill on tap during this transitional period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 13, 2020 Share Posted January 13, 2020 On 1/9/2020 at 3:26 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Why are we in banter talking actual weather? Because the weather sucks lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 A sure bet for second half of January is the heating bills will be building substantially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 The great January 2020 mass extinction of slugs, moths and stink bugs is only days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2020 Author Share Posted January 14, 2020 Slop to rain this weekend, far offshore bomb, then another cutter. Cool pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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