Research: Hurricanes have become bigger and more destructive for the U.S., study finds

[donsutherland1]

From Phys.org:

A new study by researchers at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Aslak Grinsted, Peter Ditlevsen and Jens Hesselbjerg shows that hurricanes have become more destructive since 1900, and the worst of them are more than three times as frequent now than 100 years ago. A new way of calculating the destruction, compensating for the societal change in wealth, unequivocally shows a climatic increase in the frequency of the most destructive hurricanes that routinely raise havoc on the North American southern and east coasts. The study is now published in PNAS...

In previous studies, it proved difficult to isolate the climate signal. The climate signal should be understood as the effect climate change has on hurricane size, strength and destructive force. It was hidden behind variations due to the uneven concentration of wealth, and it was statistically uncertain whether there was any tendency in the destruction. But with the new method, this doubt has been cleared. The weather has, indeed, become more dangerous on the south and east coasts of the U.S. Furthermore, the result obtained by the research team is more congruent with the climate models used to predict and understand the development in extreme weather. It fits with the physics, quite simply, that global warming has the effect that there is an increase in the force released in the most extreme hurricanes.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-hurricanes-bigger-destructive.html

The paper can be found here: https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/05/1912277116

[BillT]

hilarious stuff coming on the heels of an all time record for number of years with NO major hurricane hitting the USA coast......

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, BillT said:

hilarious stuff coming on the heels of an all time record for number of years with NO major hurricane hitting the USA coast......

The study doesn't deal with frequency. It deals with size, strength, and destruction. Whether its findings will be reaffirmed in future peer-reviewed studies remains to be seen. If so, the study would be a candidate for a significant breakthrough in scientific understanding. 

[Bhs1975]

hilarious stuff coming on the heels of an all time record for number of years with NO major hurricane hitting the USA coast......

Huh? What about Micheal and Harvey?


.

[BillT]

15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The study doesn't deal with frequency. It deals with size, strength, and destruction. Whether its findings will be reaffirmed in future peer-reviewed studies remains to be seen. If so, the study would be a candidate for a significant breakthrough in scientific understanding. 

ZERO major hurricanes = ZERO increase in size or power.......

[Bhs1975]

With the summer pattern lasting into mid October now the chance of landfalls will go way up.


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[BillT]

7 minutes ago, Bhs1975 said:

With the summer pattern lasting into mid October now the chance of landfalls will go way up.


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hurricane "season" has always included october......

[BillT]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The study doesn't deal with frequency. It deals with size, strength, and destruction. Whether its findings will be reaffirmed in future peer-reviewed studies remains to be seen. If so, the study would be a candidate for a significant breakthrough in scientific understanding. 

and the worst of them are more than three times as frequent now than 100 years ago.<<<<  it is certainly mentioned in your post

[BillT]

https://www.americasbestonline.net/index.php/pages/top10hurricanes.html

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, BillT said:

and the worst of them are more than three times as frequent now than 100 years ago.<<<<  it is certainly mentioned in your post

Not "major hurricane frequency" per se, but the "worst" hurricanes or "most destructive hurricanes." There's a distinction. The major U.S. landfalls drought was a deflection from what the paper found. Whether the research will be reaffirmed in subsequent papers remains to be seen. 

[midatlanticweather]

Did you see this article in response? https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/11/15/no-hurricanes-are-not-bigger-stronger-and-more-dangerous/

 

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Did you see this article in response? https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/11/15/no-hurricanes-are-not-bigger-stronger-and-more-dangerous/

 

Yes. I've seen his article. That's part of the reason I noted, " Whether the research will be reaffirmed in subsequent papers remains to be seen." So far, Pielke's response hasn't been submitted as a formal paper.

[BillT]

37 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Did you see this article in response? https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2019/11/15/no-hurricanes-are-not-bigger-stronger-and-more-dangerous/

 

TY for that post but this is about religion not science.........others here have faith to replace science and data

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. I've seen his article. That's part of the reason I noted, " Whether the research will be reaffirmed in subsequent papers remains to be seen." So far, Pielke's response hasn't been submitted as a formal paper.

I never should doubt that you looked into the research. Thanks for the response. Nothing but respect for you Don

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, BillT said:

TY for that post but this is about religion not science.........others here have faith to replace science and data

Just keep really looking at science. True science questions everything. For people anywhere along the spectrum of belief, you must be willing to look honestly about the basis of the belief. If you question and grow either stronger or come to another belief, you are practicing science. If you are so dogmatic about your beliefs that you will not let them be challenged, you have moved away from science. Many have moved away from science, but don't stop researching and practicing science. 

[LibertyBell]

On 11/24/2019 at 12:30 PM, BillT said:

hurricane "season" has always included october......

Isn't it true that the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic are now occurring in October, which is later than the strongest hurricanes of the past, which were in late August and early September?  The extremely warm Atlantic, much warmer than it used to be, would be a reason for that.

 

 

[BillT]

On 11/26/2019 at 3:26 AM, LibertyBell said:

Isn't it true that the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic are now occurring in October, which is later than the strongest hurricanes of the past, which were in late August and early September?  The extremely warm Atlantic, much warmer than it used to be, would be a reason for that.

 

 

NO it isnt true in fact it is a very strange claim since in october the oceans waters are COOLER than in august

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, BillT said:

NO it isnt true in fact it is a very strange claim since in october the oceans waters are COOLER than in august

Not in the tropical Atlantic, those waters dont cool until much later.  I'm talking about the GOM out to the Carib. and the waters near the Bahamas.  That has especially been the case the last few years, when even here in the NE our summers have been extending into the first half of October.