MJO812 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 HM "The -NAO is going to start causing trouble here in the eastern US as we go into Dec. Winter's coming." 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Interesting @Isotherm spoke about Canadian warming today at 33, and here Anthony is bringing this up in his post . Some have used a couple 1960's based analogs for this coming winter despite the climate being warmer now, versus then. Of note is one analog, believe 65 or 66 possibly that featured a warming and then all hell broke out in mid Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Been monitoring the AO/NAO teleconnections on the EPS and GEFS. Previous runs had both the AO and NAO hitting neutral by Dec 1. Current runs have both indices projected to still be negative and heading towards neutral maybe by the 5th or 6th. Not a major revelation, but seeing the LR ens pushing back the possible shift in phase is a good sign. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The 1960s was a great decade overall for snow . Love to see a 66' Xmas redux . This is why to a degree. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, frd said: This is why to a degree. Predominate -AO/-NAO an easy guess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Been monitoring the AO/NAO teleconnections on the EPS and GEFS. Previous runs had both the AO and NAO hitting neutral by Dec 1. Current runs have both indices projected to still be negative and heading towards neutral maybe by the 5th or 6th. Not a major revelation, but seeing the LR ens pushing back the possible shift in phase is a good sign. I totally agree and it could have sig implications down the line as climo gets better. As we start moving though Dec normal temp regimes can work here. A stable -ao/nao can overcome other flaws like a so-so Npac. Last year's pac base state was too much to overcome for most of winter but we had literally no help from above. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, frd said: This is why to a degree. Ha...that was me, lol But that was really something--that kind of look was the norm for an entire decade? Not sure if we've ever seen that over an entire decade any other time on record (or if we'll see it again--would be awesome, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ha...that was me, lol But that was really something--that kind of look was the norm for an entire decade? Not sure if we've ever seen that over an entire decade any other time on record (or if we'll see it again--would be awesome, lol) Not every winter in the 1960's were super awesome, but many winters were above average snowfall. A good time to be a snow weenie ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: Interesting @Isotherm spoke about Canadian warming today at 33, and here Anthony is bringing this up in his post . Some have used a couple 1960's based analogs for this coming winter despite the climate being warmer now, versus then. Of note is one analog, believe 65 or 66 possibly that featured a warming and then all hell broke out in mid Jan. January 66 you’re thinking of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 50 minutes ago, frd said: Not every winter in the 1960's were super awesome, but many winters were above average snowfall. A good time to be a snow weenie ! Yeah I mean there were 0 duds...And at least 5 or 6 that were above average, by my count--pretty epic decade! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: January 66 you’re thinking of. Ha...Now that winter kinda looked like what we had in 2015-15: Extreme blowtorch and a Christmas in the upper 60s/low 70s...and then an epic Blizzard in January. (That's why I was kinda excited when I saw that record because I wondered if the 70 degree Christmas in a strong niño correlation was gonna hold true again--because it also happened in 1982-83!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 If this depiction is legit, SPV might be singing some Nelly. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Lots of red and blues in the right places. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lots of red and blues in the right places. Love the look up top but also really nice to see that Aleutian low become established again. EPS is not as enthusiastic about that feature....wait and see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Lots of red and blues in the right places. Seems to align with the continued disruption of the PV the GEFS is advertising. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Love the look up top but also really nice to see that Aleutian low become established again. EPS is not as enthusiastic about that feature....wait and see. EPS may be correct, but too far out to know. The default pattern bluewave speaks about has been a real issue the last couple winters and you can see it here yet again on the 240 hour EPS. The Pac I believe has a hand in this set-up and a weak -NAO will not help us unless it is really very negative, otherwise the Pac rules. So many reasons could be at play in the Pac from certain ENSO regions to the Hadley cell, I simply don't know the real reason. But, this pattern for us here in the East has been a snow and cold killer that is for sure. Might work out well for North Dakota , but not the Northern Mid Atlantic. Here is bluewave's post: I am just weary of the Pacific defaulting back to its multi-year Niña-like base state. Notice how the EPS has the ridge north of Hawaii and SE ridge holding on with the weak -NAO near the end of the month. My guess is that the warm western Pacific and cold Niño 1+2 has a hand in this pattern of the last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 @frd Yes, that is certainly the look we have been used to. According to HM this look has been anticipated and is also anticipated to change to the more classic look that the Gefs is advertising. Maybe a case of the gefs rushing the pattern again but right now HM seems to be on a roll with his predictions.At least the blah pattern coming up will give us plenty of time to micro analyze each LR run! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Last year the GEFS rushed the SSW, but it did eventually come. If the MJO wave makes it to phase 3, that might be a trigger as SSW have happened at that MJO phase in the past often. Even Webb this morning is honking for some major winter weather later in December when the Pac and NAO align. Knowing the GEFS, it probably is rushing the -EPO reestablishment, but you can see the Eps moving that way more slowly. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 26 minutes ago, poolz1 said: @frd Yes, that is certainly the look we have been used to. According to HM this look has been anticipated and is also anticipated to change to the more classic look that the Gefs is advertising. Maybe a case of the gefs rushing the pattern again but right now HM seems to be on a roll with his predictions. At least the blah pattern coming up will give us plenty of time to micro analyze each LR run! Lol Sounds good, I am bored. And it appears the Southern stream will be a player as well. So hopefully we snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 This is just for the eye candy aspect ofnthe panel. I don't need a reminder that it's d15+ on an op run. This is one way to turn a trough in the west to a big storm pattern. Lol 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Even Webb this morning is honking for some major winter weather later in December when the Pac and NAO align. Knowing the GEFS, it probably is rushing the -EPO reestablishment, but you can see the Eps moving that way more slowly. If Webb is honking and HM backs him up, well, that sounds like music to my ears. Webb did mention to keep an eye out for this as a clue to the next big time - EPO 20m Replying to When this MJO wave finally begins to dislodge from the low frequency Indian Ocean/+IOD forcing, that's probably when the next big -EPO is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 More possible support for a -NAO down the line from Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 The look back and trends do support the idea here that the EPS, as it gets closer to real time, is indeed sensing the -NAO more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: This is just for the eye candy aspect ofnthe panel. I don't need a reminder that it's d15+ on an op run. This is one way to turn a trough in the west to a big storm pattern. Imagine if the -NAO has legs. I admit, I am happy to see this because at least it provides an indication that maybe we will be seeing more -NAO episodes this winter. That is all we can hope for at this point as we near the end of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Not sure if strat folks would concur, but yeah, it is very quiet. Also, I read there is other data used to determine the bottom of the cycle. But this low point can last months and maybe even drop further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 The single most encouraging thing I see right now is the tendency for the high latitudes to look generally favorable into early December now. November can be a big head fake month with the volatility of the seasonal changes in the jet going on so while I have generally liked what I have seen the last few weeks, I want to see what happens into December before becoming too confident. That said last year the look up top was already breaking down heading into early December. A crazy EPO ridge kept early December cold and a rogue TPV displacement suppressed a storm south of us...but the signs the AO/NAO weren't going to cooperate were already showing by December. Right now keeping the blocking up top going into December is the single best sign we can have that this winter could be different. Get a more favorable AO/NAO this winter and a lot of those "flaws" that killed us last year won't be as hard to overcome. And those periods when the pacific did cooperate become epic vs just mediocre. One other thought I keep having... better winters tend to tip their hat when even the relaxations and "bad" phases that will happen aren't that bad. USUALLY the better years we avoid month long epic torches. We go through a few days here and there, or a mediocre couple weeks...but we usually don't have weeks and weeks on end of shutout no hope patterns. If we can avoid that type of look setting up shop I don't mind a relax and a couple weeks of a warm/mediocre pattern, especially early. That said...we have had plenty of winters that were super warm early and flipped colder and snowier. But, throwing out the older analogs from a colder climo those years more recently...2004/5, 2006/7, 2014/15, 2015-16, 2018-19, mostly didn't turn into epic years. With the exception of 2015 (which had a LOT of luck) we went from dog crap to mediocre. It's simply hard to make up for losing half of climo and get lucky enough or an epic enough pattern to end up with a +climo year when you lose a significant chunk of what is already a short climo window. So while a slow start doesn't mean this will be a total bust awful year...it is a sign that this probably won't be a good one and we will fight to scratch and claw our way to a mediocre year. So I would like to avoid seeing that no end in sight pacific puke pattern with no high latitude help set in. Every run that avoids that is a win imo. I will start to think about actual snow results once we get into mid December and our climo clock starts to tick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 hours ago, frd said: The look back and trends do support the idea here that the EPS, as it gets closer to real time, is indeed sensing the -NAO more so. I a bit suprised that the weekend system would get to the west with the NOA going and negative as its been for a month or 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, mikem81 said: I a bit suprised that the weekend system would get to the west with the NOA going and negative as its been for a month or 2... Well, it is not all about the block, you still have to look at the flow across the Pac as it enters the country and how it interacts with the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Hard to call the weekend system a cutter IMO. Pretty much just a low that basically develops in the Tn/Oh valley and then move ne. The gfs sure has the look of promise after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 40 minutes ago, mikem81 said: I a bit suprised that the weekend system would get to the west with the NOA going and negative as its been for a month or 2... Storms get trapped under it and help build the block as they break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now