December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Big fan of his work but I thought he was talking about cold and snow around the holidays and getting his shovel ready. It's honestly hard to take anyone too seriously because, even as smart as a lot of these people are, in most cases they have no idea what's going to happen.

Keep his location (NJ) in mind. I agree that things may make a move for the better sometime between xmas and nye but the way it gets better is backdoor type cold fronts helped by the atlantic. It's absolutely possible the available cold presses through our region but the NE is def in a better spot to have things line up.

If we can get out of a shutout pattern before the end of Dec I'll be pretty happy. At least we can track fantasy fails to kill time

[HighStakes]

Snow in early January has become a rare thing around here over the last 20 years. It would be nice to get a moderate event in the first days of the month for a change.

[JakkelWx]

Are we actually gonna get a decent snow track for the coastal plain instead of interior or am I going to be watching the rain/snow line 100 miles to my north every storm till March?

[Bob Chill]

If this is where we end up it will make the Pac hosing much less bothersome. 

Pretty much a nino look. Not cold but prob just cold enough. Split flow and active stj with a half decent atlantic. 

Eps and gefs are both similar in how they "carve out" the atlantic. Starts happening in about a week so we have something to watch at a reasonable lead. 

[BristowWx]

What’s missing thankfully from that GEFS h5 plot above is that deep San Diego trough. Not sure any amount of Atlantic blocking can mute that feature.  

[poolz1]

Agreed.  Def a nino look.  I thought the same thing when I saw the EPS temp profile in the LR.  I'm ok with giving the Atl a go at it....we've seen what a straight Pac driven pattern can do for the past, what, 10 years?

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If this is where we end up it will make the Pac hosing much less bothersome. 

Pretty much a nino look. Not cold but prob just cold enough. Split flow and active stj with a half decent atlantic. 

Eps and gefs are both similar in how they "carve out" the atlantic. Starts happening in about a week so we have something to watch at a reasonable lead. 

Maybe we turned a corner. If we keep the Atlantic in our favor climo starts to favor us more and more after Xmas.  

How many runs does the gfs have to hold?

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What’s missing thankfully from that GEFS h5 plot above is that deep San Diego trough. Not sure any amount of Atlantic blocking can mute that feature.  

Yep, split flow out West certainly works as the stj comes out of the Baja and the northern jet comes over the split straight out of the arctic via the PV. Hints of a hybrid 50/50 and some ridging in the eastern NAO region and Baffin Bay. Compared to where we start, to get there is a big step towards the good.

[frd]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How many runs does the gfs have to hold?

 

The HM storm. 

Courtesy 33andrain 

from HM

<

You've got a few things happening that are signals and not just model noise:

 

1. Retrogression through early Jan before momentum is added from an East Asian +MT then.

2. Coherent transient wave train across the North Pacific begins in a week which will amplify things then and beyond then.

3. Split flow with retrograding RW across the North Atlantic

 

Early Jan is a time when the RW reaches our longitude with potentially enough beforehand to bring the baroclinic zone to the coast. So while we're coming out of a milder period, the right timing could work with this. Climo would favor interior vs coastal plain, however, with a retreating TPV and lack of big cold shot.

 

I'm hoping for another lucky trace just after xmas, haha. The Northeast will not "torch," in this pattern but the variability will continue of course.

>

 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What’s missing thankfully from that GEFS h5 plot above is that deep San Diego trough. Not sure any amount of Atlantic blocking can mute that feature.  

Reading between the lines and taking excessive liberties in my interpretation... it looks like pac shortwaves do keep digging to san diego but flow gets split with weak ridging above it. This allows the NS to fight back a little instead of an unmitigated powerwashing of the mid levels basically all the way to Canada. 

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe we turned a corner. If we keep the Atlantic in our favor climo starts to favor us more and more after Xmas.  

How many runs does the gfs have to hold?

I just want it to snow. Big dogs are great but rare AF. Let's just have flow that supports any sized event that includes frozen precip.  It's possible we get back to that this month if the atl really asserts itself. It's a process and patience is required. My patience meter goes way up when I see a way out that doesn't keep getting kicked down the road. Maybe today is the anchor where the end holds in time and gets closer every day. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Reading between the lines and taking excessive liberties in my interpretation... it looks like pac shortwaves do keep digging to san diego but flow gets split with weak ridging above it. This allows the NS to fight back a little instead of an unmitigated powerwashing of the mid levels basically all the way to Canada. 

I just want it to snow. Big dogs are great but rare AF. Let's just have flow that supports any sized event that includes frozen precip.  It's possible we get back to that this month if the atl really asserts itself. It's a process and patience is required. My patience meter goes way up when I see a way out that doesn't keep getting kicked down the road. Maybe today is the anchor where the end holds in time and gets closer every day. 

Oh im not taking he op gfs seriously, was just trying to stay on the reapers good side by throwing him a bone. I still doubt we ever truly torch. The Atlantic thus early can’t offset the pac enough to support an easy frozen event but it’s hard to really torch with the continuous stream of 50/50 lows. We will have some AN days for sure. But as for our snow prospects, as we head into January the Atlantic pattern that seems persistent becomes more and more likely to create a setup that can support snow. We might not need a pattern change as much as we just neee climo to make the pattern we have more favorable.  It also wouldn’t take much adjustment in the epo region to suddenly turn this into a good pattern. It’s not hopeless heading into Jan imo. 

[frd]

12 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Agreed.  Def a nino look.  I thought the same thing when I saw the EPS temp profile in the LR.  I'm ok with giving the Atl a go at it....we've seen what a straight Pac driven pattern can do for the past, what, 10 years?

True, going to a more Nino-ish look, and poolz as you know,  the developments in the HL which Ventrice posted about are somewhat typical of a classic Nino background state / progression as mentioned today by HM.  Hopefully then the good results up top continue for us,  along with a conducive NAO domain.    

I propose, maybe the best looks in the HL may still be ahead of us. 

[frd]

 

Did someone from here hack the CPC site? Not very often do I see light blue over my area. 

OK, its a low %  forecast,   but still, I like it!   

 

 

 

 

 

[BristowWx]

Just now, frd said:

 

Did someone from here hack the CPC site? Not very often do I see light blue over my area. 

OK, its a low %  forecast,   but still, I like it!   

 

 

 

 

 

I’d take that and run.  AN precip and EC but nearly low percentage BN in January?  Break out the bubbly 

[poolz1]

Might be more of a banter post but since we dont have anything to track why not swing for the fences?  Just thought this was interesting when I saw the 18z gfs storm at the end of the run.  18z GFS left, 12z EPS right.

[yoda]

Its okay

[psuhoffman]

Better than ok 

hopefully it’s also better than typical 15 day forecasts 

[Ji]

Better than ok 

hopefully it’s also better than typical 15 day forecasts 

Jb comparing it to the period right before feb......2010

[BristowWx]

Does the EPS also look ok?

[Weather Will]

WB EPS 0z 12.20 Day 15

[Ji]

WB EPS 0z 12.20 Day 15

Split flow...hopefully were on the right side. That is one unusual looking map

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS 0z 12.20 Day 15

Split flow...hopefully were on the right side. That is one unusual looking map

Is that feature a WAR?  Or is it too far removed. 

[CentralVaNATS]

Is that feature a WAR?  Or is it too far removed. 

No WAR there just a ridge in the east Atlantic giving us a +AO/+NAO from what can be seen up top. At least it's a split flow.

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Better than ok 

hopefully it’s also better than typical 15 day forecasts 

Jb comparing it to the period right before feb......2010

Of course he is...

It bears some small resemblance to the pattern a couple weeks before as it was just developing, not right before. And saying that is irresponsible because all people will hear is “big snow coming” when even if that’s right the pattern might not progress the same as January 2010 did and in reality we could get that type of block and probably wouldn’t get that outcome again. It would likely snow but I bet if we got that pattern 100 times only a few went that well.  That was a combo of epic pattern AND crazy stupid luck. 

[BristowWx]

18 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

The CMC has much lower hieghts to the northeast starting around Xmas which helps keeps us backdoored and actually has a system trying to come thru at 240 frozen . 

CMC remains the coldest for Xmas (40s) with GFS (50s) the warmest.  Euro looks in the middle (50).  Its the only thing of interest for that particular day so I continue to look at it. 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Ji said:

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS 0z 12.20 Day 15

Split flow...hopefully were on the right side. That is one unusual looking map

It won’t look like that. That’s got to be the product of competing camps within the ensemble. My guess is either there will be more ridging across Canada (as hinted but muted by a camp that doesn’t go that way) and if so a deeper trough over the CONUS. Or there won’t be and there won’t be a trough in the east at all. You’re seeing the mean of two divergent permutations on that map. 

[psuhoffman]

@Ji 6z gefs doubling down on building a pretty nice look in Jan 

[usedtobe]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Of course he is...

It bears some small resemblance to the pattern a couple weeks before as it was just developing, not right before. And saying that is irresponsible because all people will hear is “big snow coming” when even if that’s right the pattern might not progress the same as January 2010 did and in reality we could get that type of block and probably wouldn’t get that outcome again. It would likely snow but I bet if we got that pattern 100 times only a few went that well.  That was a combo of epic pattern AND crazy stupid luck. 

Plus, the spaghetti plots are all over the place so there is probably no skill at that time range even for the ensemble mean.   My guess is there will be more amplitude somewhere but where makes a huge difference and some ensemble members like the operational, others are much different from it.

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

Plus, the spaghetti plots are all over the place so there is probably no skill at that time range even for the ensemble mean.   My guess is there will be more amplitude somewhere but where makes a huge difference and some ensemble members like the operational, others are much different from it.

Only thing I feel confident in is that we should ignore JB tweets. The only thing worse than his social commentary is his weather commentary. 

[poolz1]

Today's SOI is another negative at -8.46.  Nothing earth shattering but if the gefs is correct this looks to continue and possibly some bigger neg values are on the way in the not to distant future.  GEFS  also indicating a phase 7/8 precip pattern in the PAC.  If correct, we should see the LR start to hone in on a better PAC look I would think.  Though, admittedly, I dont know how the IOD and the preip in the western IO will affect/mute this...if at all.