December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[psuhoffman]

@frd We've had plenty of cold/snow absent MJO help when its either a weak wave or waves in conflicting positions with no clear forcing signal.  We have been in that situation for quite a while and look to remain in that state for a while longer.  I think for now we have to look elsewhere for clear pattern signals.  One thing I find annoying wrt some of the twitter talking heads...a lot of them seem to have "a thing" (the strat, the MJO, ice/snowcover, enso) and focus on that at the expense of all others sometimes, EVEN when there is no clear signal from their little pet project and other drivers are clearly driving the bus at that time.  

[BristowWx]

at quick glance it appears the GEFS has both 850 and 2m temp anomalies above normal at various levels from roughly 96h to 384h east of the Mississippi. 

[FPizz]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd We've had plenty of cold/snow absent MJO help when its either a weak wave or waves in conflicting positions with no clear forcing signal.  We have been in that situation for quite a while and look to remain in that state for a while longer.  I think for now we have to look elsewhere for clear pattern signals.  One thing I find annoying wrt some of the twitter talking heads...a lot of them seem to have "a thing" (the strat, the MJO, ice/snowcover, enso) and focus on that at the expense of all others sometimes, EVEN when there is no clear signal from their little pet project and other drivers are clearly driving the bus at that time.  

Thank you for that last sentence.  I feel like all I hear about 95% of the time is the MJO and forecasters weight that at about the same rate.  95% mjo, 5% everything else. 

[WxUSAF]

GEFS is a toaster bath 

[BristowWx]

4 hours ago, PhineasC said:

49/34 doesn’t strike me as a torch around these parts, but hey we are in sad, self-pity mode here right now so I guess it qualifies. Yup, not gonna snow on Christmas in the furnace and that’s just not fair. 

The Canadian looks colder on Xmas Eve/Xmas than the GFS.  not sure why exactly, more CAD perhaps, or if it has a cold bias.  just thought it was noteworthy. 

[Scraff]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS is a toaster bath 

Lots of orange and reds where we don’t want it. Might have to break out my special Hanukkah shorts.  At least it shows some sort of potential of something different closer to the New Year. 

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The CMC has much lower hieghts to the northeast starting around Xmas which helps keeps us backdoored and actually has a system trying to come thru at 240 frozen . 

Meh... it doesn't look like we would see much frozen with that h5 look i don't think

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS is a toaster bath 

There is absolutely nothing positive in that run.  Total PUKE from start to finish.  

[psuhoffman]

HM referring to the TPV retreating north instead of dropping due to the current NAO block. That misfortune event leads to the wrecked pattern the next 2 weeks and wasted NAO block. Tpv pulling into NW Canada loads the +EPO and fails to reload the 50/50, NAO feedback loop. There was an alternate universe where that drops and feeds into the 50/50 which in turn pumps and reloads the NAO and without the added epo trough the western trough cuts under and we have a much different outcome.  Instead... puke.  Sometimes (usually) it just doesn’t go our way.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS is a toaster bath 

It's time

We’re probably in a bad place for a long time (2-3 weeks maybe) but it’s way too early in winter to be tossing the season. 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’re probably in a bad place for a long time (2-3 weeks maybe) but it’s way too early in winter to be tossing the season. 

I’m nowhere near tossing the season, but that’s a rough look and could put us out until Jan 10-15 or later if it verifies that way. Since GEFS rapidly flipped to bad, guess we hope it flips to something better again in the next few days.

[Wonderdog]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m nowhere near tossing the season, but that’s a rough look and could put us out until Jan 10-15 or later if it verifies that way. Since GEFS rapidly flipped to bad, guess we hope it flips to something better again in the next few days.

All the more reason to take model runs that are out in time with at least a couple of grains of salt. (But if it's bad news like you guys are saying, it's probably going to verify). If it's showing a cold, above normal precip. scenario, it's probably wrong.

[WEATHER53]

PV moves  south, Pv moves north-cover all the bases

Models been off since mid November with big time warm ups always 10+ days away.

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

PV moves  south, Pv moves north-cover all the bases

Models been off since mid November with big time warm ups always 10+ days away.

I just spun through 240h on Euro Hi-res on Pivotal.  glass half empty is no winter weather to speak of...but glass half full for some at least is I see no evidence of torch temps looking at 2m in our subforum.  now the central US is another story with temps.  so you are correct.  just trying to find some positive. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

54 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Lots of orange and reds where we don’t want it. Might have to break out my special Hanukkah shorts.  At least it shows some sort of potential of something different closer to the New Year. 

At least we are moving the anomalous recent trends of December warmth closer to prime climo time so we can save on heating bills 

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m nowhere near tossing the season, but that’s a rough look and could put us out until Jan 10-15 or later if it verifies that way. Since GEFS rapidly flipped to bad, guess we hope it flips to something better again in the next few days.

The big ridge near hudson/quebec can act like a block so even with the hostility going on in all directions the storm track could have some sort of mechanism that suppresses it. Euro has the best version:

 

The only reason the GEFS looked ok for a time was a cluster of members dropping the TPV down into SE canada. EPS never wavered with the TPV migrating westward near the pole. Now that the GEFS agrees the encouraging signs have vanished. 

It's possible that the entire regime abruptly flips on guidance down the line but I've conceded the rest of the month and have no reason to be optimistic into early Jan other than blind hope. Saying that models can't be trusted d10-15 isn't a reason for hope. Models seem to have nailed the upcoming hostile period way out in time and they all agree with the general hemispheric pattern through the end of Dec. Sometimes you can trust long range guidance and imho this is one of those times. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’m nowhere near tossing the season, but that’s a rough look and could put us out until Jan 10-15 or later if it verifies that way. Since GEFS rapidly flipped to bad, guess we hope it flips to something better again in the next few days.

Anything it shows past day 10 can flip on a dime so I am not overly concerned.  On top of that...there continue to be very workable signs on the Atlantic side.  Basically if we can find a way to get that TPV out of there (and that is also something that can flip quickly on guidance, they suck at modeling the high latitudes in general that far out) things would get right pretty quickly.  Right now all guidance stubbornly wants to park that PV there and just say "no soup for you" into the extended range.  At some point that will move and if we still have a workable atlantic we will see.  Mid January seems like forever right now but we have had plenty of good winters where the bulk of our snowfall fell from Jan 15 on.  If we start getting into mid January without much hope in sight...that is when I will begin to alter my expectations.  There have been the rare Feb/Mar climo saves like 1960 and 2015, and it isnt extremely rare to go into February skunked and then get at least some snow or one decent warning event in Feb or Mar...but it becomes VERY unlikely we beat climo if we get to mid January and the pattern still looks like puke out to Feb.  We are still 2/3 weeks away from that so for now I am patient, but I have a feeling my patience is going to be tested.  

[PCT_ATC]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

The big ridge near hudson/quebec can act like a block so even with the hostility going on in all directions the storm track could have some sort of mechanism that suppresses it. Euro has the best version:

 

The only reason the GEFS looked ok for a time was a cluster of members dropping the TPV down into SE canada. EPS never wavered with the TPV migrating westward near the pole. Now that the GEFS agrees the encouraging signs have vanished. 

It's possible that the entire regime abruptly flips on guidance down the line but I've conceded the rest of the month and have no reason to be optimistic into early Jan other than blind hope. Saying that models can't be trusted d10-15 isn't a reason for hope. Models seem to have nailed the upcoming hostile period way out in time and they all agree with the general hemispheric pattern through the end of Dec. Sometimes you can trust long range guidance and imho this is one of those times. 

thanks for the doom and gloom Ebenezer Chill!  Seriously, I value your input tremendously in this forum.  You are definitely

one of the top 5 go to guys here. thanks man and have a Merry Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa/Holiday!  At least now i have one less time consumer on my hands this month   

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

PV moves  south, Pv moves north-cover all the bases

Models been off since mid November with big time warm ups always 10+ days away.

You pick a funny time to pick on NWP when right now the EPS absolutely NAILED this pattern from 15 days away.  

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

The PNA is trending positive by Jan.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, PCT_ATC said:

thanks for the doom and gloom Ebenezer Chill!  Seriously, I value your input tremendously in this forum.  You are definitely

one of the top 5 go to guys here. thanks man and have a Merry Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa/Holiday!  At least now i have one less time consumer on my hands this month   

There's no SE ridge so there are ways for things to accidentally work out in an otherwise nasogood peroid. Verbatim the 12z euro is a rainstorm beyond d10 but there is a very strong surface HP nosing down from the ridge in Canada. Get a little tighter spacing between shortwaves and this general pressure pattern could supply CAD.

[LP08]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's no SE ridge so there are ways for things to accidentally work out in an otherwise nasogood peroid. Verbatim the 12z euro is a rainstorm beyond d10 but there is a very strong surface HP nosing down from the ridge in Canada. Get a little tighter spacing between shortwaves and this general pressure pattern could supply CAD.

EPS agrees with this.  We are certainly walking a fine line but the presence of the 50/50 and -NAO are keeping us around normal temp wise in that period.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea...latest Eps looks workable day 10 + 

Dude, what a save... This is like the ONLY way to get a workable pattern going considering all large scale features. This type of pattern won't work early in the season but by late Dec it's possible for temps to cooperate. 

 

ETA: don't confuse this with a good pattern because it isn't. But it's just outside of shutout parameters. lol

[jaydreb]

7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dude, what a save... This is like the ONLY way to get a workable pattern going considering all large scale features. This type of pattern won't work early in the season but by late Dec it's possible for temps to cooperate. 

 

ETA: don't confuse this with a good pattern because it isn't. But it's just outside of shutout parameters. lol

 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Exactly.  Once near New Years a big temp departure isn't necessarily needed to score . Hopefully 0z backs it up 

Someone is going to have to jar my memory because I can't remember what event but in the not too distant past we had a similar blocking ridge in Quebec with a strong +AO. It's on the tip of my brain but the cobwebs are holding me back... 

[Prestige Worldwide]

 

[Prestige Worldwide]

Just to post some optimistic tweets - maybe something positive for weenies will happen 

[WxUSAF]

Now here we go

 

[BristowWx]

So the op GFS likes that time too..early Jan...HH is back boys and girls 

[osfan24]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Now here we go

 

Big fan of his work but I thought he was talking about cold and snow around the holidays and getting his shovel ready. It's honestly hard to take anyone too seriously because, even as smart as a lot of these people are, in most cases they have no idea what's going to happen.