December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m willing to wait quite a bit if this is where we are heading (and there is evidence from analogs and tropical forcing not just blind hope to suggest it is).  

Agreed. That’s pretty tasty as is and a tick or two away from top tier longwave pattern for mid Atlantic snowstorms.

[Wonderdog]

So we have the EURO and the CMC bringing the lp up to Hatteras. Need the 1033 hp to drop down some to funnel some cold air in and somehow get the lp to bomb out. Plenty of time to get it done. 

 

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Interesting because the first 3 winters 59/60, 65/66 and 86/87  in the grouping saw the bulk of snow and cold come in an epic 2-3 week period. 59/60 came in march with a ridiculous sustained cold first 2 weeks for that time of the year. That's something I'm not opposed to at all. There's nothing like deep winter for a solid period. I would be willing to sacrifice the rest of winter for a memorable short stretch. I suspect 93/94 had more longevity because it was -epo driven much like 2013/2014 which was probably as close to wall to wall winter that we can achieve.

I agree I would love a winter with a relatively short but deep winter with snow period. 

[Bob Chill]

EPS remains worlds apart from the GEFS irt the TPV dropping down into the HB area. Honestly, the d15 mean h5 panel on the EPS pretty much sucks so I'll ignore it and hug the GEFS

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS remains worlds apart from the GEFS irt the TPV dropping down into the HB area. Honestly, the d15 mean h5 panel on the EPS pretty much sucks so I'll ignore it and hug the GEFS

It’s going a different route but the day 15 eps isn’t hopeless. Get slightly more ridging into the NAO and that trough will be forced under into the east allowing some rising to build out west. That would offset the tpv mostly. Especially heading into Jan. That look can work. But I’m extrapolating and taking liberties. It’s mostly a crappy look as is. Just not hopelessly far from a way out. 

[UniversesBelowNormal]

Looks like it's going to be skewed warmer.. the decadal trend

[MillvilleWx]

The evolution of the H5 pattern on the GFS/ECMWF deterministic is wildly different from each other out west. Until we see some consistency in the evolution of the back to back troughs out west next week, there will be some shifts in numerical guidance as to what occurs for the end of the month. As is the case, GEFS/EPS will be the guidance to use for the next 4/5 days. Things beyond Tuesday are about as clear as mud. 

[frd]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s going a different route but the day 15 eps isn’t hopeless. Get slightly more ridging into the NAO and that trough will be forced under into the east allowing some rising to build out west. That would offset the tpv mostly. Especially heading into Jan. That look can work. But I’m extrapolating and taking liberties. It’s mostly a crappy look as is. Just not hopelessly far from a way out. 

I believe  you also have to re-visit what was posted a week or so ago, the up coming period, and even beyond, has a very high level of model difficulty  in terms of forecasting.    

Many competing forces, and changes abound in certain areas of the NH.   

[clskinsfan]

Just looking at the long range the STJ appears to be really active heading into January. There are a line of LP's looking to be on the playing field. Obviously that is not everything we need to get hit in our area. But at least it gives us chance. We have had our share of Atlantic blocking so far this fall. If we can keep that I would be shocked if one of those storms doesnt work out for us heading into our prime climo.

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

The evolution of the H5 pattern on the GFS/ECMWF deterministic is wildly different from each other out west. Until we see some consistency in the evolution of the back to back troughs out west next week, there will be some shifts in numerical guidance as to what occurs for the end of the month. As is the case, GEFS/EPS will be the guidance to use for the next 4/5 days. Things beyond Tuesday are about as clear as mud. 

I'm not sure I can agree that there isn't clarity beyond Tues right now. Once the cold shot rolls through we're in the grips of a pretty rough shutout pattern and it isn't going away until sometime after Christmas. Ops and ens are locked in pretty much through d10. Beyond that we gotta put all our chips on the gefs. 

I can honestly say that right now (imho only) the chances for snowfall in our area before Dec 30th are near zero. How long that continues will be picked apart daily. Lol.

Let's just hope we can get back to something stable/workable sometime during the first week of 2020. 

[Bob Chill]

Dammit! 18z gefs looks just like the EPS now. If this is where we end up in 2 weeks I'm taking a break. 

[BristowWx]

Looking at the 18z GEFS h5 from a novice view I see nothing but the same.  Trough west ridge East.  Temps never really get cold.  Some ridging into AK.  But if that’s our guide we have a long wait.  Yeah what Bob said. 

[MillvilleWx]

I'm not sure I can agree that there isn't clarity beyond Tues right now. Once the cold shot rolls through we're in the grips of a pretty rough shutout pattern and it isn't going away until sometime after Christmas. Ops and ens are locked in pretty much through d10. Beyond that we gotta put all our chips on the gefs. 
I can honestly say that right now (imho only) the chances for snowfall in our area before Dec 30th are near zero. How long that continues will be picked apart daily. Lol.
Let's just hope we can get back to something stable/workable sometime during the first week of 2020. 

Just saw the GEFS. Oof. That’s brutal. The western trough is probably a given now. On the deterministic, there was a complex setup of dual s/w pieces on Euro compared to one consolidated trough via the GFS (On 12z at least). Now the long range handling on ensembles for the long wave pattern are virtually identical. There’s no real way to sugar coat it, but the rest of December is looking blank for East of Mississippi. Hopefully this is a temp and a reshuffle happens for second half of prime climo. Still a lot of time to recover. Just sucks that it’s been seemingly years since the MA had any great snow setups in the heart of low-sun angle season.


.

[cbmclean]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dammit! 18z gefs looks just like the EPS now. If this is where we end up in 2 weeks I'm taking a break. 

Wow that model war didn't take long.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just saw the GEFS. Oof. That’s brutal. The western trough is probably a given now. On the deterministic, there was a complex setup of dual s/w pieces on Euro compared to one consolidated trough via the GFS (On 12z at least). Now the long range handling on ensembles for the long wave pattern are virtually identical. There’s no real way to sugar coat it, but the rest of December is looking blank for East of Mississippi. Hopefully this is a temp and a reshuffle happens for second half of prime climo. Still a lot of time to recover. Just sucks that it’s been seemingly years since the MA had any great snow setups in the heart of low-sun angle season.


.

When the pac onslaught first started showing up my first thought (other than uh oh) was it might last longer than our nerves can handle. And unfortunately as it stands right now... my hunch may end up being right.

Ens agree that some sort of front/continental airmass will roll through between Christmas and New Years so I doubt we straight torch for the last 10 days of the month. Snow prospects look grim though and that's the primary reason we participate is this stupid hobby. Lol

[frd]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just sucks that it’s been seemingly years since the MA had any great snow setups in the heart of low-sun angle season.

So true , I long for snow cover and cold temps near the holidays and the solstice. 

Up next is the complexity of early Jan to mid Jan.and what the sensible weather is going to be around here. 

Time for some cheesecake to ease the pain, but seriously, I am still hopeful though that we get our snow and cold.  The idea from @psuhoffman that we get a brutal several week onslaught of winter is one such possibility that I see. Hopefully some clarity will arrive soon.    

[JakkelWx]

The models only look like that because the MJO has to cycle through the COD, then phases 6 and 7 before getting into the cold phases which likely won't be until the 1st week of Jan which is almost outside of the LR ens range. Eric Webber stated that the ENSO state is progressing towards a west based Nino, or the fabled modoki. Relax guys.

[MillvilleWx]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

When the pac onslaught first started showing up my first thought (other than uh oh) was it might last longer than our nerves can handle. And unfortunately as it stands right now... my hunch may end up being right.

Ens agree that some sort of front/continental airmass will roll through between Christmas and New Years so I doubt we straight torch for the last 10 days of the month. Snow prospects look grim though and that's the primary reason we participate is this stupid hobby. Lol

It's never easy seeing the pattern teeter on the edge with no end in sight. Having said that, we have been here before (And in much worse positions too) and we've come out on top in the grand scheme of things. One of the positives I see in all this is the N Hemi is not completely devoid of cold. In fact, this is a prime setup for Siberia to kick it up a notch with cold and snow, which could come in handy down the line if we get some cross-polar flow to open for the second half of the season. Plus, we aren't dealing with a raging ENSO like in 2016 where we literally had to have the stars, moon, and sun align to get the storm we had. This could flip by mid-January and we are off to the races. The key for me is seeing the SJT remain active with storms and the gravity of coastals setting up near 50/50. If that continues for the long term, that will bode well for the second half of the season. It really stings always having to say "Second half...blah...blah...blah", but with shortening wave lengths more common in second half, the prospects of getting "The Big One" go up. Until then, holidays, family, booze, football, and looking for the window to open in the long range. I still like for a normal winter in snow climo and colder 2nd half. Just a hunch!

9 minutes ago, frd said:

So true , I long for snow cover and cold temps near the holidays and the solstice. 

Up next is the complexity of early Jan to mid Jan.and what the sensible weather is going to be around here. 

Time for some cheesecake to ease the pain, but seriously, I am still hopeful though that we get our snow and cold.  The idea from @psuhoffman that we get a brutal several week onslaught of winter is one such possibility that I see. Hopefully some clarity will arrive soon.    

I'm with PSU and I mentioned in my response to Bob. The one silver lining is the main source region of cold will be really dang cold and snowy while the Eastern CONUS sees the ridge in place. Once the flood gates open, it'll take a bit to replenish what is lost upstream, but we've seen this song and dance before. Until then, I'd sit back and enjoy the holidays and all it has to offer. 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's never easy seeing the pattern teeter on the edge with no end in sight. Having said that, we have been here before (And in much worse positions too) and we've come out on top in the grand scheme of things. 

I'm absolutely not pooping on the whole season. I know you already know that. Just don't want my post taken out of context that I think we're seasonally F'd. 

We've had a better Atlantic so far than any year since 2010 so that's a good start. I don't mind the Pac messing things up because it's normal for the pac flow to oscillate between good and bad all year. What the eps and now gefs show is a crappy altantic and pacific simultaneously. Can't work with that as we need one or the other at a minimum. 

I don't like where the tpv is now on the gefs/eps though. If we can't have the atl working for us then we at least need the tpv to play traffic cop in eastern Canada. Gefs was fairly gung ho on that until the 18z run today. There's a ton of time for things to work back in our favor but right now the end of the gefs and eps runs aren't encouraging. That general setup is at least another week away from anything good. I like tracking storms (even if fantasy range) far more than I like tracking pattern changes 2-3 weeks down the road. Lol

[jaydreb]

I’m getting flashbacks to last winter where we spent late-December and early-Jan tracking the “flip”.  Not looking forward to post after post about the MJO and Siberia (no offense to the great posters who post about that though).  

[poolz1]

1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

The models only look like that because the MJO has to cycle through the COD, then phases 6 and 7 before getting into the cold phases which likely won't be until the 1st week of Jan which is almost outside of the LR ens range. Eric Webber stated that the ENSO state is progressing towards a west based Nino, or the fabled modoki. Relax guys.

Agreed.  But having to punt the last 10 days of Dec (most likely) and now the prospect of punting the first week+ of Jan will ruffle feathers.  I really dont doubt that we enter a favorable pac forcing regime but I was hoping that we would roll right past the warm phases.  Still an option, like you said, LR MJO forecasts are very much subject to change.

[Ji]

I like how one run of 18z gefs goes bad...when 6z 12z were good and eveyone gives us. Bob was pointing out how great the 12z was like 5 minutes ago

[dallen7908]

To mix metaphors, we're punting the 2nd inning.  No reason to be too upset, but its been a while since we've had a good tracking period over the Holidays. 

Not sure it matters but the ever-reliable GEFS and EPS ensembles predict that the AO and NAO will become positive shortly after the 1st - if true we could have uncooperative indices in both the Atlantic and Pacific. 

Our odds of getting rain during the next 10 days aren't that much higher than our odds of getting snow; however, the tail end of December and early January could be wet as the ridge relaxes  - maybe a mixed event in there for us? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

When the pac onslaught first started showing up my first thought (other than uh oh) was it might last longer than our nerves can handle. And unfortunately as it stands right now... my hunch may end up being right.

Ens agree that some sort of front/continental airmass will roll through between Christmas and New Years so I doubt we straight torch for the last 10 days of the month. Snow prospects look grim though and that's the primary reason we participate is this stupid hobby. Lol

Why should it when punting the last week of Dec and the first of Jan has become the norm? (Maybe I'm over-generalizing too much, so correct me if I'm wrong). I've come to not expect any notable snow between Christmas and mid-Jan (biggest ones don't happen until mid-Jan and Feb 20th)...So as long as this crap don't start eating into the middle of Jan...I can deal with that 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

I like how one run of 18z gefs goes bad...when 6z 12z were good and eveyone gives us. Bob was pointing out how great the 12z was like 5 minutes ago

12z did look good but the it had no support with the eps and was on its own. Now they both look the same. EPS picked up on the warmup near christmas from 15 days out and has never once wavered and unless models completely blow the current mid range guidance the eps did an excellent job from 15 days out. That pretty good even even though we hate what it looks like. 

[BristowWx]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

12z did look good but the it had no support with the eps and was on its own. Now they both look the same. EPS picked up on the warmup near christmas from 15 days out and has never once wavered and unless models completely blow the current mid range guidance the eps did an excellent job from 15 days out. That pretty good even even though we hate what it looks like. 

You called it a while ago and it was a tough pill to swallow.  But you had optimism when it was warranted and kept emotions to a minimum while babysitting weenies.  No one could ask for more.  Thanks for being a class act.  

[Wonderdog]

24 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why should it when punting the last week of Dec and the first of Jan has become the norm? (Maybe I'm over-generalizing too much, so correct me if I'm wrong). I've come to not expect any notable snow between Christmas and mid-Jan (biggest ones don't happen until mid-Jan and Feb 20th)...So as long as this crap don't start eating into the middle of Jan...I can deal with that 

Recently it seems that we have really only mid Jan. through Feb as the most likely time that we get snow in the coastal plain, besides these useless mulch covering snowfalls. Although, for years growing up in South Jersey, my recollection is that the last two weeks of December was a transition period and useful snowfall was rare. But that is my questionable memory.

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Recently it seems that we have really only mid Jan. through Feb as the most likely time that we get snow in the coastal plain, besides these useless mulch covering snowfalls. Although, for years growing up in South Jersey, my recollection is that the last two weeks of December was a transition period and useful snowfall was rare. But that is my questionable memory.

No you are correct.  I also grew up in South Jersey. If you were on the wrong side of the GSP then forget it.  Maybe the 0z runs will be kind.  We won’t believe whatever it shows anyway. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

When I look at the gfs ensembles I see a seemingly unending string of storms. If we keep that active southern stream you guys can put your worries to rest. Before we are done it will be a heckuva winter, if that train continues. We may be unlucky for a while but our prime season isn’t even here yet.

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

When I look at the gfs ensembles I see a seemingly unending string of storms. If we keep that active southern stream you guys can put your worries to rest. Before we are done it will be a heckuva winter, if that train continues. We may be unlucky for a while but our prime season isn’t even here yet.

Yeah, but an unending train of storms running into a Pacific/west trough serves to just pump up the trough, right?