December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

There is definitely a light showing at the end of the tunnel on both the GEFS and the EPS when it comes to our torchfest.

I know I am the only one so call me stubborn or just a fool, but I still believe when all is said and told the east (especially mid-Atlantic and north) clocks in with around seasonable temps through the coming torch. Of course the GEFS has pretty much crapped in my bed its last few runs on this belief so there is that.  

I have agreed with you on this. There wont be a "torch" in the sense of ground truth warmth, but with the Pac in hostile mode and warm upper levels (briefly lets hope) its a pretty bad look for snow chances over the next 10 days.

[Ralph Wiggum]

30 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

There is definitely a light showing at the end of the tunnel on both the GEFS and the EPS when it comes to our torchfest.

I know I am the only one so call me stubborn or just a fool, but I still believe when all is said and told the east (especially mid-Atlantic and north) clocks in with around seasonable temps through the coming torch. Of course the GEFS has pretty much crapped in my bed its last few runs on this belief so there is that.  

We have been on the same page regarding the temps and the pac puke being brief. You are not alone.

[Wonderdog]

12/28-30 or so is a time period I'm watching after last two GFS op runs is bringing a cold front thru with maybe a storm popping along the front. 

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I have agreed with you on this. There wont be a "torch" in the sense of ground truth warmth, but with the Pac in hostile mode and warm upper levels (briefly lets hope) its a pretty bad look for snow chances over the next 10 days.

Maybe, though we are seeing these warm anomalies at 850 mb (stretches of up to +7 C or so on the EPS) this time of year is more forgiving. GEFS actually keeps the 0 degree 850s through our general local or just north through this stretch. Euro pulls everything too far north but by day 10 it puts us back in the game as 850's once again drop southward. Something pulling up from our south or up the coast could have sufficient cold to work with especially if the GEFS is more correct. 

[showmethesnow]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We have been on the same page regarding the temps and the pac puke being brief. You are not alone.

Not alone? Feels like it when I read the daytime commentary. 

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Maybe, though we are seeing these warm anomalies at 850 mb (stretches of up to +7 C or so on the EPS) this time of year is more forgiving. GEFS actually keeps the 0 degree 850s through our general local or just north through this stretch. Euro pulls everything too far north but by day 10 it puts us back in the game as 850's once again drop southward. Something pulling up from our south or up the coast could have sufficient cold to work with especially if the GEFS is more correct. 

Its pretty normal to not see any significant snow in Dec here, so this "unfavorable" period doesn't bother me at all. No signs of days and days in the 50s and 60s, so it will generally feel seasonable. I have not looked at the latest ensembles yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if something interesting pops up in the period after Xmas and before New Years.

[showmethesnow]

8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

12/28-30 or so is a time period I'm watching after last two GFS op runs is bringing a cold front thru with maybe a storm popping along the front. 

Haven't bothered posting about it because I am in wait and see mode but I have had a feeling about the possibilities in the extended for a couple of days now. Once that EPO gets reestablished I think a few days down the road may potentially be ripe. It all depends on several things. Do we see some energy dislodged from the SW with the EPO flip (I think we do)? How badly do we warm up in the coming CONUS torch (As you already know I am favoring seasonal temps). And does the N Atlantic hold with the backing of the flow (The consistent lower anomalies in the 50/50 region are promising). Get these things and I think there is chance. Going by the EPS the EPO starts getting established around day 12 so that roughly opens up the very end of the extended. GEFS is day 9 so that opens up the possibilities a few days sooner.

[showmethesnow]

12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its pretty normal to not see any significant snow in Dec here, so this "unfavorable" period doesn't bother me at all. No signs of days and days in the 50s and 60s, so it will generally feel seasonable. I have not looked at the latest ensembles yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if something interesting pops up in the period after Xmas and before New Years.

Growing up here and spending most of my 55+ years in this local I have learned to take any snow in December as bonus snow. Far too many years were barren with at best mood flakes to ingrain this in my mind. I know some can throw out all the snows we have seen in December but taken as a whole I have always considered December as a mostly non-snow month whereas Jan through March were our money months.

[psuhoffman]

@showmethesnow @C.A.P.E.

My only concern, and Ji has a point, is the TPV. There is a tendency for ridging into the high latitudes but with the tpv as strong as it is and at that latitude if all it does is shift west and east we kinda can’t win. When it’s west we lose the pac. When it’s east we lose the Atlantic. It needs to either weaken or get displaced southeast. 

[psuhoffman]

6z gefs way our in fantasy land is showing the tpv weakening and dropping. That’s what we really need if we want a good not just ok pattern. 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow @C.A.P.E.

My only concern, and Ji has a point, is the TPV. There is a tendency for ridging into the high latitudes but with the tpv as strong as it is and at that latitude if all it does is shift west and east we kinda can’t win. When it’s west we lose the pac. When it’s east we lose the Atlantic. It needs to either weaken or get displaced southeast. 

Not worth much but at the end of the extended we do see it in a somewhat favorable spot on both the EPS and the GEFS with indications of a possible further drop south and east into an even more favorable location. Again it isn't worth much but it does show this at this time.

[poolz1]

If we can time the EPO ridge with a pushing scan ridge we could weaken the TPV and shove it pretty quickly into a favorable location.  May lose the ATl for a period (maybe not completely) as the scan ridge develops and pushes but....short term pain.

 

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not worth much but at the end of the extended we do see it in a somewhat favorable spot on both the EPS and the GEFS with indications of a possible further drop south and east into an even more favorable location. Again it isn't worth much but it does show this at this time.

Yeah I noticed that on the 12z GEFS yesterday and commented on it. TPV was migrating towards Hudson Bay at the end of the run.

If we get the TPV a bit further south, it can work for us in the absence of sustained NA ridging, and at the same time wont inhibit its development.

[Ralph Wiggum]

54 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I noticed that on the 12z GEFS yesterday and commented on it. TPV was migrating towards Hudson Bay at the end of the run.

If we get the TPV a bit further south, it can work for us in the absence of sustained NA ridging, and at the same time wont inhibit its development.

I know the TPV anchored near Hudson's Bay is decent for cold as it can keep the trof in the GL, OV, NE and into the N Mid Atl. Doesnt that also 'usually' equate to a cold/dry pattern? I also tend to think clipper type pattern as well. 

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know the TPV anchored near Hudson's Bay is decent for cold as it can keep the trof in the GL, OV, NE and into the N Mid Atl. Doesnt that also 'usually' equate to a cold/dry pattern? I also tend to think clipper type pattern as well. 

It would with a +PNA probably.  With a -PNA battling a SE ridge, it could set up overrunning (and cutters...). 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I know the TPV anchored near Hudson's Bay is decent for cold as it can keep the trof in the GL, OV, NE and into the N Mid Atl. Doesnt that also 'usually' equate to a cold/dry pattern? I also tend to think clipper type pattern as well. 

Not if we have an active Pac/STJ. With a piece of the TPV nearby, it can shed off lobes and contribute to confluence/help get a wave to track underneath, esp in the absence of a block.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not if we have an active Pac/STJ. With a piece of the TPV nearby, it can shed off lobes and contribute to confluence/help get a wave to track underneath, esp in the absence of a block.

No matter how you slice and dice it... current trends are towards a look that is magnitudes better than the next 10 days. Is it perfect? Far from it but you gotta start somewhere 

[showmethesnow]

No luck on the GFS in regards to the possible storm this weekend as it suppresses it into oblivion. I miss the good old days when it comes to the GFS. 10 years ago it would show a big storm in the extended only to lose it through suppression in the mid range. Only to bring it back in the shorter ranges. It was pretty much money in the bank for that progression. 

[MJO812]

[Bob Chill]

FWIW- 12z gfs is showing a version of what the ens are trending towards irt the EPO ridge and TPV moving over Hudson. This is not something to get all excited about but it's the fastest way out of the mess so encouraging in that regard

[Snowchaser]

CMC is coming around!! 

I can feel this storm in my bones!!

I’m starting to get December 2009 vibes!! 

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

No matter how you slice and dice it... current trends are towards a look that is magnitudes better than the next 10 days. Is it perfect? Far from it but you gotta start somewhere 

It looks more workable.  The details (and we are still way too far for that) will determine how workable.  What I am about to say (and I know you know all this just saying to be clear to everyone) pertains to warning level events.  I will never turn down a 1-3" mix event or a clipper...but we can luck our way into something like that during prime climo is LOTS of patterns...but are we really tracking a 1" event from 10 days?  I think most of us are tracking in hope of a bigger event.  If we want a warning level snowfall...we need a certain combo to show.  There is a reason a -EPO or an east based -NAO for instance, has very little correlation to snowfall if only taken by themselves.  That doesn't mean we cant get snow with those looks  but we need other factors to line up.  But since most guidance seems to suggest we get some EPO help but without any PNA help...that combo really does need some atlantic side help or an ideally located TPV  to work otherwise that is cutter city.  BUT...a -EPO -NAO can work with a -PNA.  EPO delivers the cold and the NAO would prevent cutters despite the PNA.  That might not be an HECS look...storms would "TRY" to cut and get blocked, that usually means any epic snowfall totals are north of us...but we can get a warning event out of that setup.  That look was a lot more common in the 1960's for instance...and we didn't get a lot of HUGE snowfall totals in most of those storms but we did very well despite the fact that to our north had the epic totals in most of those.  But if we end up with epo help without any PNA or NAO help...that is probably just cold/dry, warm/wet.  Too far out yet to know how that will break.  Seeing the TPV drop is big because if all it does is cycle back and forth up there we will just cycle between a crap pacific and crap atlantic.  

 

 

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

No luck on the GFS in regards to the possible storm this weekend as it suppresses it into oblivion. I miss the good old days when it comes to the GFS. 10 years ago it would show a big storm in the extended only to lose it through suppression in the mid range. Only to bring it back in the shorter ranges. It was pretty much money in the bank for that progression. 

CMC has a different look.  One that might give DC south mood flakes at a hr 138.  Hey its something. 

[Wonderdog]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

CMC has a different look.  One that might give DC south mood flakes at a hr 138.  Hey its something. 

So CMC brought back the GFS weekend storm. Interesting. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

FWIW- 12z gfs is showing a version of what the ens are trending towards irt the EPO ridge and TPV moving over Hudson. This is not something to get all excited about but it's the fastest way out of the mess so encouraging in that regard

Yeah that would get some cold air into the Lower 48 for the new year. Probably be pretty transient with a nice cutter on the backside, but hey, gotta start somewhere.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

So CMC brought back the GFS weekend storm. Interesting. 

Yeah but so wildly different than just hours ago in the last run.  something to keep an eye on I suppose.  still far enough out that changes could be interesting. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah that would get some cold air into the Lower 48 for the new year. Probably be pretty transient with a nice cutter on the backside, but hey, gotta start somewhere.

It's a process. Looks like at least 2 large scale intrusions of maritime air between now and the end of the month. GFS shows how fast things can turn around. D10 looks awful with temps but by d16 there's expansive cold in our source region. I'm not hunting a big dog or even a small dog... I'm hunting the way out of the "snow? hell no!" pattern. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a process. Looks like at least 2 large scale intrusions of maritime air between now and the end of the month. GFS shows how fast things can turn around. D10 looks awful with temps but by d16 there's expansive cold in our source region. I'm not hunting a big dog or even a small dog... I'm hunting the way out of the "snow? hell no!" pattern. 

I am seeing what looks like some semblance of Xmas CAD/backdoor cold front action on the 25th timeframe.  More evident on the CMC.  somewhat on the 6z GFS.  we mentioned this yesterday so funny its showing up.  Nothing more than muting positive temp anomalies I suppose. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I am seeing what looks like some semblance of Xmas CAD/backdoor cold front action on the 25th timeframe.  More evident on the CMC.  somewhat on the 6z GFS.  we mentioned this yesterday so funny its showing up.  Nothing more than muting positive temp anomalies I suppose. 

That's actually showing on the ensembles as well. There's a camp that pushes a back door front through our area right around Christmas. Certainly possible but would be nothing more than an intermission between some pretty mild Dec wx. 

[Bob Chill]

Fairly big shift on the GEFS building the EPO ridge by d10. Would imply the potential "flip" may happen sooner rather than later.