December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Last run had some ns involvement that phased in and helped give more of  a negative tilt.  This run no ns and consequently positively tilted trough much longer .

Looks like yesterday's Euro ... GFS never goes neg tilt. We are going to be dealing with coastal vs suppression most of the week from run to run

[JakkelWx]

At this point or tomorrow it's going to become a battle of the runs. Big storm vs suppression to Venezuela. At this point I favor the southern solution because the euro and other models besides the GFS show a southern slider. Hopefully the NAVGEM is right 

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

 Hopefully the NAVGEM is right 

Is it ever wrong tho? 

Wait, dont answer that

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

And just like that, poof.  From double digit snow to smoking cirrus.   It's gonna change again, but this run was more Euro-esque

So we got snow, whiff, or rain on the table...time to play wheel. of. solutions! (now, of the two fail solutions, which one is more a possibility? Are things moving away from a rain solution, or is it still pretty even?)

[WinterWxLuvr]

Looking at the upper features it looks like the wild card is the phasing with the ns.

Now I don’t know if there’s actually any truth in the old adage that the ns is more difficult to model because of data, but even if that isn’t true I would think this is a very volatile setup that could set us up for wild swings. Obviously I haven’t seen the 12z ens but the 6z had this storm widespread on the members. I’d say confidence in the storm is high but where is low.

[NorthArlington101]

GEFS is not going to make any friends. Other than one really friendly member, most are suppressed/laugh at us for thinking there was a storm at all.

[Bob Chill]

Gefs and Eps look basically the same at the end of Dec. This is a pretty ugly panel. Would imply a continuation into Jan. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs and Eps look basically the same at the end of Dec. This is a pretty ugly panel. Would imply a continuation into Jan. 

Red flags raised? 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Red flags raised? 

White flags raised.  The hope that it will be transient just took another hit.  Dang it, when the PAC goes to crap it really digs in.  Has there ever been a "transient" crappy Pac?

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Red flags raised? 

I've had them raised... As soon as I saw an extension in time with troughs digging into san diego I figured we're in some trouble. When it first showed up it appeared transient and everyone dismissed it. Not looking so transient anymore unfortunately. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs and Eps look basically the same at the end of Dec. This is a pretty ugly panel. Would imply a continuation into Jan. 

Only saving grace is the favorable Atlantic looks like a stable feature. But that pac...ugh. 

[binbisso]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs and Eps look basically the same at the end of Dec. This is a pretty ugly panel. Would imply a continuation into Jan. 

Hi Bob visiting from the New York City forum love your analysis and others on here as I have been following her for a while now. Looking at that map you just posted it doesn't look that ugly. From what I can tell there is still plenty of cold air in Canada. if you look at the 850s they are still below normal there.  building EPO Ridge and still some Reds over Greenland with lower Heights in the 50/50 region. I don't think it would take long for this to flip to a good pattern.probably the next several panels.obviously it's 384 hours out so taken with a grain of salt

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Only saving grace is the favorable Atlantic looks like a stable feature. But that pac...ugh. 

Yea, all the atl will do is trim down how warm the pattern could potentially be. The wildcard is the tpv. The atl can't fight a jet alignment like that by itself. If the tpv migrates underneath a -nao we are back in business. Total unreliable fantasy range but the 12z gfs op is moving that way. We can only hope....

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Only saving grace is the favorable Atlantic looks like a stable feature. But that pac...ugh. 

That damn ridge N of Hawaii killed us last year and it returns and looks to have staying power on the ens. Still somewhat skeptical of D10+ but agreed with the concern.

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, all the atl will do is trim down how warm the pattern could potentially be. The wildcard is the tpv. The atl can't fight a jet alignment like that by itself. If the tpv migrates underneath a -nao we are back in business. Total unreliable fantasy range but the 12z gfs op is moving that way. We can only hope....

Lol I was just thinking...if only we could get that PV under the block instead of NW Canada we would have a chance.  

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Hi Bob visiting from the New York City forum love your analysis and others on here as I have been following her for a while now. Looking at that map you just posted it doesn't look that ugly. From what I can tell there is still plenty of cold air in Canada. if you look at the 850s they are still below normal there.  building EPO Ridge and still some Reds over Greenland with lower Heights in the 50/50 region. I don't think it would take long for this to flip to a good pattern.probably the next several panels.obviously it's 384 hours out so taken with a grain of salt

Ens means are very smooth way out in time so you can't just look at the height isobars by themselves and interpret that as sensible wx. Think about the mechanics/jet alignment of the ens mean panel. Pac jet is blasting in underneath the trough in the west. That's really far south and just pumping maritime air right into the conus. 

Here's a sensible wx version of what the d16 gefs panel is showing. Basically the gefs is implying that we get a repeat and/or continuation of this setup... ugh

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, binbisso said:

Hi Bob visiting from the New York City forum love your analysis and others on here as I have been following her for a while now. Looking at that map you just posted it doesn't look that ugly. From what I can tell there is still plenty of cold air in Canada. if you look at the 850s they are still below normal there.  building EPO Ridge and still some Reds over Greenland with lower Heights in the 50/50 region. I don't think it would take long for this to flip to a good pattern.probably the next several panels.obviously it's 384 hours out so taken with a grain of salt

You’re not totally wrong but you’re looking at day 16, taking some creative liberties with the pattern, and saying it wouldn’t take long...  

[frd]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

I've had them raised... As soon as I saw an extension in time with troughs digging into san diego I figured we're in some trouble. When it first showed up it appeared transient and everyone dismissed it. Not looking so transient anymore unfortunately. 

Bob, as you stated, not the first time the Pac has ruined everything for us and others, even with a favorable Atlantic.  

And, as stated several times in the past, the Pac jet has been a long- term concern,  as has the inability to achieve a +PNA pattern and improved longer lasting ridging out .Some of the same issues as last winter. 

Even Tip mentioned in the NE forum a couple days ago, that we ( more so his region, but I find that concerning because they are at a higher latitude and  in better climo too ) really need a -EPO cold air delivery and intervals of +PNA. He stated issues regarding the lack of cold air delivery and entrenchment.  

I found Tip's points right on the mark. 

I also think back to bluewave's posts, over the past three months, and how the configuration of the Central Pac SST profile supports the ridge further West this year,  like last year, and this also eventually could lead to a SE ridge feedback. We need warmer SSTs up against the West Coast. 

[psuhoffman]

@Bob Chill

Things aren’t looking so great right now.  But one thing to hug for hope, a lot of years that had a slow start then turned more favorable later the Atlantic flipped first. When I was looking through analogs the last couple years (they share some of the same ones) I noticed that. If we were hitting New Years with a horrible looking AO/NAO that would be even harder to recover from imo. I doubt the pacific locks in like that all winter, especially given the sst patterns. Just have to hope when it gets right the Atlantic doesn’t go bad. We’ve had years where they take turns crapping the bed. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Bob, as you stated, not the first time the Pac has ruined everything for us and others, even with a favorable Atlantic.  

And, as stated several times in the past, the Pac jet has been a long- term concern,  as has the inability to achieve a +PNA pattern and improved longer lasting ridging out .Some of the same issues as last winter. 

Even Tip mentioned in the NE forum a couple days ago, that we ( more so his region, but I find that concerning because they are at a higher latitude and  in better climo too ) really need a -EPO cold air delivery and intervals of +PNA. He stated issues regarding the lack of cold air delivery and entrenchment.  

I found Tip's points right on the mark. 

I also think back to bluewave's posts, over the past three months, and how the configuration of the Central Pac SST profile supports the ridge further West this year,  like last year, and this also eventually could lead to a SE ridge feedback. We need warmer SSTs up against the West Coast. 

Not disagreeing with that, but last years pac wasn’t awful.  We managed some snow and lots of waves went just to our NW because the Atlantic was crap. If we had that same pac base state but with the Atlantic look coming now we would be fine. Problem is the pac isn’t just mediocre. It’s as hostile as possible. The ridge isn’t just off the west coast like last year, it’s out in the central Pac with a deep trough all along and off the west coast. I would love to get last years ridge alignment with this blocking and roll. Actually if we could just get the tpv out of western Canada it can work. Look at the composites of some blocking snows. Many had a trough off the west coast but they don’t have a tpv in western Canada. 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs and Eps look basically the same at the end of Dec. This is a pretty ugly panel. Would imply a continuation into Jan. 

Looks a bit better than the 0z run. Hint of a ridge building over AK, and the TPV is migrating  SE towards Hudson Bay at the end of the run.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill

Things aren’t looking so great right now.  But one thing to hug for hope, a lot of years that had a slow start then turned more favorable later the Atlantic flipped first. When I was looking through analogs the last couple years (they share some of the same ones) I noticed that. If we were hitting New Years with a horrible looking AO/NAO that would be even harder to recover from imo. I doubt the pacific locks in like that all winter, especially given the sst patterns. Just have to hope when it gets right the Atlantic doesn’t go bad. We’ve had years where they take turns crapping the bed. 

Oh, I'm def not pooping on the whole season. I generally only look at a couple weeks out tops. Pattern could get crazy stupid good in early Jan. Persistant shutout periods are a peeve of mine. Prob #1 peeve because it ruins all the fun of what I focus on. Tracking a pattern change out of a shutout that's 2 weeks or more way blows. I'll become Deb Chill if it continues into Jan...

[Amped]

Euro is pretty bad at 120, not as far southwest as the UKMET, but close. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro is pretty bad at 120, not as far southwest as the UKMET, but close. 

There's a literal upper level wall keeping the streams separate. Zero chance of helpful ns phasing. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's a literal upper level wall keeping the streams separate. Zero chance of helpful ns phasing. 

So if it were to go down like this...all of this would be because of the pac or something else?

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So if it were to go down like this...all of this would be because of the pac or something else?

It's a fluky/flawed setup in general so you can point a finger at everything. These are those types of events that you thank your lucky stars when they work out because they technically shouldn't. And the vast majority don't. I never felt this had much of a chance and that's why I barely posted about it. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually if we could just get the tpv out of western Canada it can work. Look at the composites of some blocking snows. Many had a trough off the west coast but they don’t have a tpv in western Canada. 

Just looked at some composites, very interesting psu.

Hopefully, an eventual Pac transition occurs sooner versus later.  

Just reflecting, but maybe the  Pac puke was due, considering the duration that we had a decent Pac . Granted, the Atlantic muted the recent,  no as good Pac, as evident by the warmer December temps out West. 

Maybe the Pac nasty period is simply the Jan thaw two to three weeks early. My positive side says,  I hope so.  Not sure that fits though with the other indices in fantasy land. A very volatile period indeed.     

[Bob Chill]

Ok, I found some crumbs out in the distance that could imply the cold factory may start building before the end of Dec. GEPS likes the idea of better height patterns in the epo region:

EPS made a pretty big run over run jump towards the same idea. Not a great look overall but moving in the direction of decent at least. 

 

Eta: Adding one more panel. This plot shows the run over run height differential from 0z. If you read between the lines you could say the eps is shifting towards a -epo/-nao + 50/50 low. 

[cbmclean]

20 minutes ago, frd said:

Just looked at some composites, very interesting psu.

Hopefully, an eventual Pac transition occurs sooner versus later.  

Just reflecting, but maybe the  Pac puke was due, considering the duration that we had a decent Pac . Granted, the Atlantic muted the recent,  no as good Pac, as evident by the warmer December temps out West. 

Maybe the Pac nasty period is simply the Jan thaw two to three weeks early. My positive side says,  I hope so.  Not sure that fits though with the other indices in fantasy land. A very volatile period indeed.     

 GEFS MJO progression argues for a non-evil Pacific.  EPS predictably less positive.  I'll just convince myself that that the smaller overall spread in the GEFS means it has a better handle.

 

 

[CAPE]

39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Ok, I found some crumbs out in the distance that could imply the cold factory may start building before the end of Dec. GEPS likes the idea of better height patterns in the epo region:

EPS made a pretty big run over run jump towards the same idea. Not a great look overall but moving in the direction of decent at least. 

 

Eta: Adding one more panel. This plot shows the run over run height differential from 0z. If you read between the lines you could say the eps is shifting towards a -epo/-nao + 50/50 low. 

Definitely some notable improvements on both the GEFS and EPS today. More so on the GEFS as compared to the 0z run, particularly the TPV sliding southeastward in the LR. Both showing signs in the EPO domain. Need a few more runs to discern noise from an actual favorable pattern progression.