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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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1 minute ago, Wow said:

All the models are "close" to making a big storm out of this... Euro has a good look on the southern wave but pulls the 50/50 out too fast.  Canadian has a good look with the 50/50 low but doesn't have enough separation with the southern wave.  GFS has the best look obviously at this time.

Always great to have to stop in WOW.  The threat period has been there a while, certainly has significant  "potential ". 

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Now that is an interesting progression- The Low that exits off the GA coast gets captured by that NS energy and SNE gets nailed lol,

1577080800-XNIxbif8tbk.png

Yea that’s something the models show a lot but rarely happens. We just think it does because they do get way more snow then us and we see runs like that with a setup that’s physically impossible for us and think those lucky suckers. Lol 

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just a few hundred miles north and we are in the game. And plenty of time to get there!

 

If we get a phased bomb on the East Coast that delivers I will thank the + PMM  tip off, LOL 

Does have a correlation to somewhat higher probabilities of phased cyclones and colder temps in the East. Of course, this is all fun and games at this point, but very entertaining. Besides, I really need snow !!!  ( And please no DC 0 inches and Boston with 30 inches )   

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea that’s something the models show a lot but rarely happens. We just think it does because they do get way more snow then us and we see runs like that with a setup that’s physically impossible for us and think those lucky suckers. Lol 

Looks like a scenario that might occur in a La Nina.

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7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just a few hundred miles north and we are in the game. And plenty of time to get there!

1576994400-D8rpGBbTvrw.png

Euro is really really doesn't want to let the southern stream take on a negative tilt.  It could have started phasing  in the MS valley instead of over the Bahamas, but the southern stream keeps moving southeast and stays positively tilted.

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50 minutes ago, Wow said:

All the models are "close" to making a big storm out of this... Euro has a good look on the southern wave but pulls the 50/50 out too fast.  Canadian has a good look with the 50/50 low but doesn't have enough separation with the southern wave.  GFS has the best look obviously at this time.  Given it's 6-7 days out, I'm satisfied.

Yeah, seems that if you took a 1/3 blend of each we'd be sittin perty. 

Gotta give props to @frd as he has been saying that we may see notable changes in the mid range and in....seems like he's onto something, no matter the result.  

Fun tracking ahead gang.  Have a good rest of your day.  Off to a holiday party.

 

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Have to say I'm quite shocked at the 12z suite. Was not expecting to come on in and see that euro and GFS actually have somewhat of a friendly relationship in the midst of a long battle for the last 5+ days. Just need to fine tune. Gfs was an absolute demolishing for my area. Hopefully everyone can get in on some fun. Much needed for snow starved lovers. 

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If we get perfect track/blocked storms that are all rain i'm gonna be pissed. The Pac onslaught is real on this panel. Above freezing 850s all the way to the Yukon... wtf man

gfs_T850_namer_51.png

Problem here is there really is no  NA blocking and that impressive 50-50 races away into the NA. That is the general problem when there is no legit block. Transient higher h5 heights in the NAO domain do not qualify as a block. It can work,  but It is temporary and requires damn near perfect timing.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Problem here is there really is no  NA blocking and that impressive 50-50 races away into the NA. That is the general problem when there is no legit block. Transient higher h5 heights in the NAO domain do not qualify as a block. It can work,  but It is temporary and requires damn near perfect timing.

This is looking more and more like we're in some trouble coming up. The parade of storms tracking through the npac into the GoA is relentless on the gfs. 6 in a row over 2 weeks and just hosing the continent with maritime air. We're starting to see ens cave to the idea that this type of regime isn't going to be hit and run. I'm not nervous yet but some of the things I'm seeing are discouraging. Nobody wants to discuss bad stuff so I'll keep it to myself 

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This is looking more and more like we're in some trouble coming up. The parade of storms tracking through the npac into the GoA is relentless on the gfs. 6 in a row over 2 weeks and just hosing the continent with maritime air. We're starting to see ens cave to the idea that this type of regime isn't going to be hit and run. I'm not nervous yet but some of the things I'm seeing are discouraging. Nobody wants to discuss bad stuff so I'll keep it to myself 

I see it. Its a high amped, fast/progressive pattern. I wish people would stop using the term "blocking" every time they see a blob of red on an h5 panel in the "right place" that lasts a few hours. That is NOT a block. We are seeing the opposite of a blocked flow now, and also going forward (advertised) in the LR.

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Outside of lucking into something with perfect timing, we really need a legitimate (sustained) -AO/-NAO to overcome the unfavorable EPAC. No idea how long that will persist. I hope it is fairly transient but we just cannot know. And IMO we are not seeing strong signs of real/legit/sustained HL blocking on the means- yet. Not raging + either, but neutral-ish probably wont get it done if the PAC remains fairly hostile.

eta- Looking at the EPS at h5 and also the teleconnections, the period(as advertised) between the 16th and the 22nd, would qualify as a modest period of blocking. That window does look interesting, esp towards the 22/23rd(when NA ridging looks to break down). We have seen some nice op runs lately, but ofc the Pac is less than ideal. Definitely worth monitoring.

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2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

GEFS MJO forecast.  Kind of surprises me that the Pacific would be so hostile with this MJO forecast.

 

image.png.3eae46786ee009ba62aa58e9bdc98010.png

Advertised LR pattern may be wrong. MJO forecast may be wrong. Do all the global ensembles agree?

I know you know this, but the MJO is not the sole driver of the long wave pattern either.

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1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Advertised LR pattern may be wrong. MJO forecast may be wrong. Do all the global ensembles agree?

I know you know this, but the MJO is not the sole driver of the long wave pattern either.

Well, it seems both the GEFS and the EPS  are agreeing it is time to head for the bunker.  Haven't checked the GEPS lately.

As far as MJO, the EPS has it floating around in the COD.  GEPS seems to be predicting an emergence into phase 5 or 6.

Euro seasonals has A LOT of spread but mean is 5/6.

image.png.b24ee9e80a28b22340ff091a1c6d46e7.png

 

Then there is the Austrailian model.  It clearly shows direction.

image.png.860583a35242a537e7d46bb5b73dd9cc.png

 

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32 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Well, it seems both the GEFS and the EPS  are agreeing it is time to head for the bunker.  Haven't checked the GEPS lately.

As far as MJO, the EPS has it floating around in the COD.  GEPS seems to be predicting an emergence into phase 5 or 6.

Euro seasonals has A LOT of spread but mean is 5/6.

image.png.b24ee9e80a28b22340ff091a1c6d46e7.png

 

Then there is the Austrailian model.  It clearly shows direction.

image.png.860583a35242a537e7d46bb5b73dd9cc.png

 

The Australian hasn’t been updated since February 

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