December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco

[stormtracker]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Very. Look up in Quebec

Yup, first thing I noticed.  And the digging s/w

[BristowWx]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Check the H5 map.   It's a wholly different solution

Wildly different.  But similar to some of the earlier solutions at least the high 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So the GFS...looks..kinda interesting at 

Phantom mid range threat to help offset the waiting game coming up. Don't care if it's real yet. Just keep it around so we don't focus solely on bad stuff. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

No idea what 174 looks like but 168 looks wow

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

No idea what 174 looks like but 168 looks wow

Probably won't get the job done not because it's too warm..but it looks like the trough is too neutral and it's probably gonna swing wide right south of us.  But I mean, at this point, I'd take this map and run with it.

[jaydreb]

Congrats Roanoke on this run.  

EDIT: Snowing verbatim in DC at 192.  

[stormtracker]

Well, we got a 980 kissing Norfolk and......light snow across the area. 

[midatlanticweather]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Well, we got a 980 kissing Norfolk and......light snow across the area. 

Methinks that is a little under done.. Lol

[stormtracker]

That was a fun run.  In 6 hours, we'll be approaching 50 with some showers.  Why can't this all new solution show up at 96 hours vs 192 hours

[showmethesnow]

Nice look at 500's with that system. Confluence held on long enough, maybe even a touch too long. But keep in mind the system we have coming through Monday had a somewhat similar look at this range as well.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That was a fun run.  In 6 hours, we'll be approaching 50 with some showers.  Why can't this all new solution show up at 96 hours vs 192 hours

I like this so far. It’s really within a week. That’s a powerhouse low it develops. This thing could really turn into something. I would think a low like that would pull in plenty of cold air and would probably end up heading more north.

[stormtracker]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

I like this so far. It’s really within a week. That’s a powerhouse low it develops. This thing could really turn into something. I would think a low like that would pull in plenty of cold air and would probably end up heading more north.

I want to be as optimistic as you, but it's hard considering what Monday looked like earlier this past week.  I'm interested to see if this is just the usual GFS blip and/or will other 12z runs show something similar.   I'm thinking it's a blip and the next run will be vastly different.

[poolz1]

Shove that ridge in the C US up in to Hudson bay area and merge with the NAO ridge....goes bonkers and creates a stout surface high.  GFS has been consistent on this type of progression...just varying run to run. Obviously not the only thing we need...50/50 holding on enough.  Euro just shoves everything east in tandem...

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I want to be as optimistic as you, but it's hard considering what Monday looked like earlier this past week.  I'm interested to see if this is just the usual GFS blip and/or will other 12z runs show something similar.   I'm thinking it's a blip and the next run will be vastly different.

GFS has had some sort of bombing low in the southeast for about 5 days straight, practically every run. Don’t think this is a blip. I think this is a chance at some type of memorable storm. Just don’t know for whom.

[LurkerBoy]

33 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I don't know if I would call one day worth of warmth a torch. And that is more so for down in your local (NC) vs up in our region where the northern sections may not even get out of the 30's. Even the southern and eastern portions of the region see only a brief half day warm up at best. 

And this brief warm up isn't even associated with the EPS advertised PAC flood it is just a natural response of a trough moving into our region.

Gotcha. I'm such a noob it's embarassing. I just like seasons in seasons, and that's why i'm here. Maybe it's people like me who've ruined it. Hmm. Thanks for info everyone, I truly do enjoy it. 

[frd]

@showmethesnow   you have any background with the QBO ?

Looking at over some data this morning and attempting to figure when the real benefits actually start to get into the pattern for us. 

Some research shows it might not be until Feb. depending upon what you level you look at. However, I read the actual shear between levels is just as important. 

Imagine the possibilities if we can get some help from the QBO re blocking and combine that with a weakened + IOD along with diminishing lag effects for the second half of the winter. 

 

[frd]

10 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Shove that ridge in the C US up in to Hudson bay area and merge with the NAO ridge....goes bonkers and creates a stout surface high.  GFS has been consistent on this type of progression...just varying run to run. Obviously not the only thing we need...50/50 holding on enough.  Euro just shoves everything east in tandem...

This is a period where the indices are a bit more favorable, so there may be some support for some type of event.   

[CAPE]

Always good to have the highs and the lows in the right places on approach. Big ass H above the GLs, and a low off the Maritimes.

[poolz1]

Just now, frd said:

This is a period where the indices are a bit more favorable, so there may be some support for some type of event.   

I agree.  Who knows if its real but the euro made a move toward the gfs at 0z, imo.

On another note, today is the first double digit -SOI reading since late NOV.  -11.3  

EPS and GEFS are not worlds apart on their MJO progressions.  Hoping we see a PAC improvement start to show up in the LR here soon.

 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I agree.  Who knows if its real but the euro made a move toward the gfs at 0z, imo.

On another note, today is the first double digit -SOI reading since late NOV.  -11.3  

EPS and GEFS are not worlds apart on their MJO progressions.  Hoping we see a PAC improvement start to show up in the LR here soon.

 

This morning I ran out of time to check,  but I believe compared to December this time last year the 30 and 90 SOI day values are much better. 

Plus,  last year at this time were were running numerous positives with the SOI and the MJO went whacky with the high amp warm phases, don't see that this year. Which as you know, is a huge plus, and I agree with your reasoning for an improved Pac in the LR. 

Speculation of course, but once we achieve that better Pac look it may hang around for a while, even if it does take a a bit longer to arrive on the scene. This may hinge on the weakening of the IOD and a quicker fading of the residual atmospheric effects. I am hopeful for this to happen.

 

[nj2va]

12z UK for H144.  Big H up north and 50/50 low...shortwave in Texas.  Wish it went out to 168 but on approach, looks good (hi CAPE).

[BristowWx]

47 minutes ago, nj2va said:

12z UK for H144.  Big H up north and 50/50 low...shortwave in Texas.  Wish it went out to 168 but on approach, looks good (hi CAPE).

CMC seems to want no part of this.  Euro will be telling. 

[JakkelWx]

Euro is in the game!

source:

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1873-wx-threats-on-the-horizon-5-15-day-outlook-part-2/page/13/#comments

[psuhoffman]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

Euro is in the game!

source:

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1873-wx-threats-on-the-horizon-5-15-day-outlook-part-2/page/13/#comments

Rotfl at “source”. 

Anywats...I’m mildly surprised the “compromise” seems to be leaning closer to the gfs progression.  The upper level look is now close enough across guidance that it’s a legit threat. Small changes are all we need. That said when I say legit chance I don’t mean likely. I would still bet against it. But it doesn’t require some Hail Mary miracle. It would only be mildly surprising if it works out. 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Euro is in the game!

As stated several days ago, expect rather impressive changes day to day with the modeling beyond day 5 .

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

Euro is in the game!

source:

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1873-wx-threats-on-the-horizon-5-15-day-outlook-part-2/page/13/#comments

It was at 0z but it took the low to central Florida lol. Looks like its on the way to doing it again this run.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Euro is in the game!

source:

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1873-wx-threats-on-the-horizon-5-15-day-outlook-part-2/page/13/#comments

That look reminds me of something. One of our recent storms. But I’m out shopping with the family and can’t look it up. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

It was at 0z but it took the low to central Florida lol. Looks like its on the way to doing it again this run.

Yea but that’s a lot closer to a setup we can work with than when it was cutting the upper energy to the Hudson Bay 24 hours ago!  

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea but that’s a lot closer to a setup we can work with than when it was cutting the upper energy to the Hudson Bay 24 hours ago!  

Oh I agree. "Right where we want it". Well, if it was the GFS we would be saying that. 

[Wow]

All the models are "close" to making a big storm out of this... Euro has a good look on the southern wave but pulls the 50/50 out too fast.  Canadian has a good look with the 50/50 low but doesn't have enough separation with the southern wave.  GFS has the best look obviously at this time.  Given it's 6-7 days out, I'm satisfied.