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December 2019 Med/Long Range Disco


Bob Chill
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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the 0z EPS for the same general timeframe. Polar opposites on what's going on in the EPO region. Of course I'm rooting like F the GEFS is right but the EPS hasn't wavered in days with the hostile EPac. 

aBPt1nb.jpg

 

If the EPS is going to flip to the GEFS it will be soon in my opinion.  It has already has once this cold season and getting closer to the under 10 days,  so maybe today or even tomorrow it flips.  We shall see. Not holding my breathe but anything is possible. If it were not for the dramatic changes so far this season with modeling days 11 to 15 I wouldn't even bring it up, but I believe there is some merit to the possibility.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the 0z EPS for the same general timeframe. Polar opposites on what's going on in the EPO region. Of course I'm rooting like F the GEFS is right but the EPS hasn't wavered in days with the hostile EPac. 

aBPt1nb.jpg

I am NOT disagreeing with you.  I am favoring that progression.  I agree with you totally.  I should repeat that 10 more times so this next statement isn't misinterpreted... but the Euro/EPS did have one run yesterday where it caved to the GFS before quickly reverting.  It still didn't really support a storm because it was significantly weaker with the energy ejecting from the trough in the PAC and so there simply was no storm in the southern stream, but it was very GFS like on the progression of the TPV in Canada and the resulting pattern over the CONUS.  But it was just one run and it then reverted back.  

That said...the fact that it had that one hiccup means the GFS isnt totally off on a crazy lunatic tangent...the possibility is there and the euro sees it, both in a few divergent members and one one run where the majority saw it that way.  So I guess I am saying there is a chance...but I would HIGHLY favor the progression the euro and most other guidance has been insistent on with the majority.  The vast preponderance of evidence is on that side.  But I don't take anything for granted in this game.  

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agree. GEFS looks pretty solid down the line. Most importantly it pops a -EPO ridge d10-15 so the cold factory can get back to work. Do we believe it though? I'm skeptical AF that we end up here in under 2 weeks:

500h_anom.nh.png

I agree the GFS is rushing it.  I do think there is a good chance that is where we are heading.  The things I am seeing right now look more like the precursors to some of the better analogs I looked at back in the fall...not the worse ones.  I think that might be what we are seeing come January 10th...GFS is just rushing things as usual.  We've seen that before....many times.  

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

If the EPS is going to flip to the GEFS it will be soon in my opinion.  It has already has once this cold season and getting closer to the under 10 days,  so maybe today or even tomorrow it flips.  We shall see. Not holding my breathe but anything is possible. If it were not for the dramatic changes so far this season with modeling days 11 to 15 I wouldn't even bring it up, but I believe there is some merit to the possibility.

 

 

There is definitely some merit to the idea so I'm not saying the GEFS is flat wrong. However, we've been caught in a bad pac rut many times over the years. The vast majority of times it takes longer than expected to get out of it. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There is definitely some merit to the idea so I'm not saying the GEFS is flat wrong. However, we've been caught in a bad pac rut many times over the years. The vast majority of times it takes longer than expected to get out of it. 

Yes, totally agree.

And @psuhoffman maybe the GEFS is rushing things.  We shall know soon enough. 

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

@Bob Chill  The Pac has muted the NAO block and warmth is really over- taking the country later in the period.  

Awesome pattern cancel.  Certainly seems we are going to need time to recover as the Pac looks not so good. .  

However, I reserve the right to change my opinion tomorrow.  

 

I'm not sure there's a way to avoid a significant Pac air intrusion at this point. As the days go by the signal keeps getting stronger. First it showed up on ens d10-15 and now we're starting to see ops agree inside of d10. 

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not sure there's a way to avoid a significant Pac air intrusion at this point. As the days go by the signal keeps getting stronger. First it showed up on ens d10-15 and now we're starting to see ops agree inside of d10. 

So are you punting December? Crazy how we get a nice looking AO/NAO combo then the Pac craps the bed and wastes it. Hopefully that AO/NAO tanking is a background state developing for JFM. Are the ens losing the Aleutian low and 50/50 looks as well down the road?

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28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is a legit torch towards the end. CMC/GFS would be the same if the phantom storm wasn't there. If it's going to happen then lets just get it out of the way sooner rather than later. 

Eps has a weak low off the coast. I guess it's a start.

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31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Euro is a legit torch towards the end. CMC/GFS would be the same if the phantom storm wasn't there. If it's going to happen then lets just get it out of the way sooner rather than later. 

Mostly agree except that the hostile pac pattern is timing up perfectly with a great blocking period.  I think the blocking will likely recycle again this winter and so I am not that bothered BUT...but it is frustrating that we have had a generally ok PAC for a month but just when the Atlantic gets right the pacific sh!ts the bed.  

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Mostly agree except that the hostile pac pattern is timing up perfectly with a great blocking period.  I think the blocking will likely recycle again this winter and so I am not that bothered BUT...but it is frustrating that we have had a generally ok PAC for a month but just when the Atlantic gets right the pacific sh!ts the bed.  

And again, why does it keep going bad in mid/late December every single year? Smh Can we just assume it'll do that every mid/late December from here on?

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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not sure there's a way to avoid a significant Pac air intrusion at this point. As the days go by the signal keeps getting stronger. First it showed up on ens d10-15 and now we're starting to see ops agree inside of d10. 

Not sure how relevant, and to what latitude this might be targeted to , ie. DC , Philly or even NYC.,  but I read  that despite having a -AO in December, along with a  -NAO the most important indice to have in your favor during December for increased snowfall odds is a  +PNA.  I am beginning to believe that. You don't need the +PNA as much in J, F and M 

The +PNA does seem more important in reality versus the  -NAO/ Davis Straits block during December. 

Now for the records,  a MECS in December in the Northern Mid Atlantic, yes,  you need both. 

A lot of what I said here is from reading all the great posts and stats form Don S.  Love his stuff ! 

So next time you see a Greenland block you still need to check the Pac.  I know you know all this, LOL,  but some folks may not understand the importance of the Pac , especially this early in the season and for our hood especially .

Caveat mention here: as  @psuhoffman stated,   having this blocking in December may indeed be a positive sign for later in the season.  Especially seeing the NAO blocking a couple times so far. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

So are you punting December? Crazy how we get a nice looking AO/NAO combo then the Pac craps the bed and wastes it. Hopefully that AO/NAO tanking is a background state developing for JFM. Are the ens losing the Aleutian low and 50/50 looks as well down the road?

Not punting the whole month. Just don't like what I see beginning in a week. It's not all that uncommon to fail during a -AO/NAO regime. December 2012 is a recent example of the Pac completely screwing up decent blocking. 

The blocking event on tap popped up rather abruptly and it's good to see. I know you know this but just because we get a -NAO going doesn't mean we instantly hit deep winter. If the -NAO hangs on for a month then there should be multiple chances down the line with above normal odds for a big event. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Not punting the whole month. Just don't like what I see beginning in a week. It's not all that uncommon to fail during a -AO/NAO regime. December 2012 is a recent example of the Pac completely screwing up decent blocking. 

The blocking event on tap popped up rather abruptly and it's good to see. I know you know this but just because we get a -NAO going doesn't mean we instantly hit deep winter. If the -NAO hangs on for a month then there should be multiple chances down the line with above normal odds for a big event. 

So in a hostile PAC -NAO we are just muting what would be a real warm pattern into an AN one?  

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